Top 25 talk

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I've never been completely satisfied that William Patterson deserved to be in the top 25.  The problem this year was that some of the teams I thought were good, just didn't have the schedule or the record to prove it.

Edgewood was one I like a lot at the beginning of the year, but they had some terrible losses.

[Pat Coleman]

8 teams from the Top 25 eliminated in the first round of the NCAAs:

10. Mary Hardin-Baylor
11. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
12. William Paterson
13. Birmingham-Southern
17. UW River Falls
18. Transylvania
20. Bethany
25. Christopher Newport

A couple of these teams seemed overrated, IMO.  I never believed that Bethany or Birmingham-Southern even belonged in the Top 25 when their gaudy records came against weak competition and they had no real quality wins.

I think the Top 25 voters need to pay more attention to the SOS stat.  Bethany had a very weak SOS of 0.437 and Birmingham-Southern was not much better at 0.443.

SOS doesn't explain all of those losses. March is March. Because of geography, Bethany had to go on the road for an 8-9 game. What would you expect?

[kiltedbryan]

8 teams from the Top 25 eliminated in the first round of the NCAAs:

10. Mary Hardin-Baylor
11. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
12. William Paterson
13. Birmingham-Southern
17. UW River Falls
18. Transylvania
20. Bethany
25. Christopher Newport

A couple of these teams seemed overrated, IMO.  I never believed that Bethany or Birmingham-Southern even belonged in the Top 25 when their gaudy records came against weak competition and they had no real quality wins.

I think the Top 25 voters need to pay more attention to the SOS stat.  Bethany had a very weak SOS of 0.437 and Birmingham-Southern was not much better at 0.443.

I'm not that surprised that a good chunk of the Top 25 dropped first round games, since there seems to be a lot of parity all across DIII this year.

But only Birmingham-Southern lost to another ranked team (#22 Wittenberg), and UMHB, Willy Pat, UWRF and Transy all lost at home to unranked teams. Ouch.

The top of the poll held up much better, with teams 1-9 going 7-0 yesterday.

[Pat Coleman]

There are definitely a few teams on the upset list who have been ones that have just drifted upward by not losing.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Since I saw both BSC and Transy lose in person... I can tell you they deserved their Top 25 love because they are good teams (BSC lost to another Top 25 team)... Carroll on the other hand had been hot recently... shooting extremely well and if you look at the four Transy losses, they lost to teams who shot 60% or better (I think Carroll was just under that while Transy shot something like 46% for the game).

Can't say CMS is overrated since I have watched them play very good basketball this season and certainly think they are better then most of those teams they are ahead of... UMHB may be too high, but they had one loss going into the last week of the season.

Bethany and CNU? It's a crap shoot this season at that level of the Top 25.

[Ralph Turner]

Since I saw both BSC and Transy lose in person... I can tell you they deserved their Top 25 love because they are good teams (BSC lost to another Top 25 team)... Carroll on the other hand had been hot recently... shooting extremely well and if you look at the four Transy losses, they lost to teams who shot 60% or better (I think Carroll was just under that while Transy shot something like 46% for the game).

Can't say CMS is overrated since I have watched them play very good basketball this season and certainly think they are better then most of those teams they are ahead of... UMHB may be too high, but they had one loss going into the last week of the season.

Bethany and CNU? It's a crap shoot this season at that level of the Top 25.

Let's see how far Whitworth's coattails can pull UMHB.

UMHB and Trinity was a great match against 2 teams that play opposite styles of ball.  It was a toss-up.

As hard as Whitworth tried they could not shake McMurry. Up by 4 at the half, the Pirates pushed the lead to 9 at 7:13 and at 3:39 remaining.  Whitworth hits 1-2FT at 2:18 to push the lead to 5. In the next possession, McMurry bounces the ball off the foot at 2:13 left and the "end game" plays out. Whitworth hits 7 of 8 from the line and McMurry only hit 1 of 6 3FG's.  Final Whitworth 90-79.

In his index, Knightslappy had Whitworth as his #2 team prior to the tourney and the most probable team to win after Round #1.  Whitworth was about a 7-point favorite over McMurry and that game played out that way.  UMHB was much more consistent in the ASC this season, and Trinity's young team put it together in the second half.

The UMHB games were fun to watch. Based on the full season, UMHB was clearly Top 25 and probably Top 15-17.

[sac]

The UMHB games were fun to watch. Based on the full season, UMHB was clearly Top 25 and probably Top 15-17.

Based on efficiency adjusted for schedule I had them #20 going into the tournament.

[scottiedawg]

PCT of points graduating
Wheaton-69%
Wittenberg-69%
W Conn-64%
Edgewood-64%
Oswego St.-63%
Whitworth-60%
UW-River Falls-60%
Lake Forest-60%
E Conn-57%
Augustana-55%
Illinois Wesleyan-49%
Farmingdale St.-48%
Mary Hardin Baylor-47%
UW-Whitewater-46%
Rhode Island College-45%
Hartwick-42%
Hope-42%
UW-Stevens Point-40%
Amherst-39%
Cabrini-37%
Wooster-35%
Virginia Wesleyan-35%
Christopher Newport-34%
WashU-33%
Randolph Macon-32%
Ohio Wesleyan-30%
Albertus Magnus-29%
Franklin & Marshall-29%
Middlebury-28%
Claremont Mudd Scripps-28%
NYU-28%
St. Thomas-28%
Birmingham Southern-24%
Rose-Hulman-18%
Bethany-15%
Wesleyan CT-14%
MIT-13%
North Central-12%
Transylvania-12%
William Patterson-2%

[Hugenerd]

Your MIT numbers are incorrect...Hollingsworth and Karraker have a year of eligibility left due to redshirt seasons.  MIT is only graduating 10% of their scoring (essentially just Billy Bender, who hasn't played the last 2.5 games due to injury).

[scottiedawg]

Corrected. Thanks! I know nothing of most of these rosters so I'm just going off what the player is listed as.

[Hugenerd]

No problem, just thought I would give you the inside scoop!

[scottiedawg]

No problem, just thought I would give you the inside scoop!

Not something MIT opponents like to hear!

On a much smaller magnitude, but one that could become bigger, Hope's Nate VanArendonk has 3 full years of eligibility left (even though listed as a soph). Here's to hoping he can fulfill the potential that gained him a D1 scholarship!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I have to apologize to F&M.  They are much, much better than I thought.  They're a solid, championship level team.  They're better than MIT; they're better than Cabrini.

Tonight they were better than Amherst.  I'll have to do some thinking about whether they're overall better than the Jeffs, but they're at least as good.

MIT is a solid top 10 team, but probably nearer to the bottom of the top 10.

There will be a lot to think about for the final poll.

[Hugenerd]

I have to apologize to F&M.  They are much, much better than I thought.  They're a solid, championship level team.  They're better than MIT; they're better than Cabrini.

Tonight they were better than Amherst.  I'll have to do some thinking about whether they're overall better than the Jeffs, but they're at least as good.

MIT is a solid top 10 team, but probably nearer to the bottom of the top 10.

There will be a lot to think about for the final poll.

MIT has won their last 3 games by at least 15 points. Their average margin of victory for all 4 NCAA tourney games is 14.5 points.  They held F&M to their lowest scoring output of the season tonight, 54, and they scored 12 of those 54 points in the last 2.5 minutes when MIT had all but put the game away.  And they are doing all this without their starting, senior, small forward who was injured around halftime of their opening round game. The better team won tonight.

Mitch Kates, MIT's PG, also outplayed Milligan pretty thoroughly on both ends of the court (don't let the boxscore fool you, Milligan had 9 points in garbage time to boost his numbers--the first 37.5 minutes of the game Kates held him to 14 points on 5-16 shooting, only 2 assists and 4 TOs). Kates was spectacular in the way he controlled the tempo of the game, if you didn't see it, the boxscore doesn't do it justice (his line was pretty darn good anyway, 21 points, 8 assists, 3 steals, 3 boards, and a block).  Also, I dont want my post to be interpreted as meaning that Milligan isnt good, he is a spectacular, All-American guard. I just think it was clear that Kates outplayed him tonight and he deserves similar national recognition.

Don't sleep on the Engineers.

[magicman]

I have to apologize to F&M.  They are much, much better than I thought.  They're a solid, championship level team.  They're better than MIT; they're better than Cabrini.

Tonight they were better than Amherst.  I'll have to do some thinking about whether they're overall better than the Jeffs, but they're at least as good.

MIT is a solid top 10 team, but probably nearer to the bottom of the top 10.

There will be a lot to think about for the final poll.

MIT has won their last 3 games by at least 15 points. Their average margin of victory for all 4 NCAA tourney games is 14.5 points.  They held F&M to their lowest scoring output of the season tonight, 54, and they scored 12 of those 54 points in the last 2.5 minutes when MIT had all but put the game away.  And they are doing all this without their starting, senior, small forward who was injured around halftime of their opening round game. The better team won tonight.

Mitch Kates, MIT's PG, also outplayed Milligan pretty thoroughly on both ends of the court (don't let the boxscore fool you, Milligan had 9 points in garbage time to boost his numbers--the first 37.5 minutes of the game Kates held him to 14 points on 5-16 shooting, only 2 assists and 4 TOs). Kates was spectacular in the way he controlled the tempo of the game, if you didn't see it, the boxscore doesn't do it justice (his line was pretty darn good anyway, 21 points, 8 assists, 3 steals, 3 boards, and a block).

Don't sleep on the Engineers.

I have to agree with Hugenerd. Kates has been great all year and tonight he was clearly the best player on the floor. At least 4 times that I remember, he just blew by everyone for an easy layup. The vaunted F&M defense didn't stop him much tonight. MIT doesn't have a long bench and it got shorter now that Bender is out but their starters can all light it up. In the Posters' Poll I had them as high as #2 and never worse than #4. I think they've earned their #3 ranking and now with a Final Four berth it looks like they've proved that.