Top 25 talk

gordonmann · October 25, 2012, 10:46:44 AM

True, but Kentucky can count the game toward its overall record while Transy cannot.

sac · October 25, 2012, 12:10:29 PM

Kentucky has that game clearly tagged as an exhibition event.

http://www.ukathletics.com/sports/m-baskbl/sched/kty-m-baskbl-sched.html

gordonmann · October 25, 2012, 01:00:22 PM

Okay. So it doesn't count for anyone then.

Pat Coleman · October 25, 2012, 02:07:56 PM

Yeah, I think we get into that silly exhibition/non-exhibition grey area starting on Nov. 7 or so, whenever the first official D-I playing date is.

Proud to say that's not a date I track.

7express · October 25, 2012, 10:48:30 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 25, 2012, 02:07:56 PM
Yeah, I think we get into that silly exhibition/non-exhibition grey area starting on Nov. 7 or so, whenever the first official D-I playing date is.

Proud to say that's not a date I track.

I know I'm nitpocking here, but the first "official" division 1 games are part of the coaches vs. cancer classic, and 1 or 2 usually occur the first Monday of November which this year is the 5. Most schools tip off either the following Friday or Saturday; the 9th & 10th this year.
Note: Just checked and no games during the week this year so the official starting date is Friday, November 9 this year.

magicman · October 26, 2012, 02:27:13 AM

I've always thought that 7xpress was an old nitpocker.

ECSUalum · October 28, 2012, 01:18:39 PM

Here is how good the predictions were last year with repsect to 2011/12 Preseason poll vs Final poll
for ONLY the top 14 teams in the Final poll. You make the judgement on how good the preseason polls are!!!!
I say they are poor, or not much research put into developing the preseason poll

D3hoops.com men's Top 25, final
Through end of 2011-12 season: rank deviation between
preseason and final polls
# School (1st votes) Rec Pts Prev. -------------------------

1 UW-Whitewater (25) 29-4 625 8 1-28 = 27
2 Cabrini 31-2 600 5 2-14 = 12
3 Illinois Wesleyan 23-8 551 3-38 = 35
4 MIT 29-2 543 3 4-10 = 6
5 Virginia Wesleyan 27-4 489 6 5-1 = 4
6 Hope 27-2 469 1 6- 32 = 26
7 Franklin and Marshall 28-3 467 9 7- 17 = 10
8 Amherst 26-3 458 2 8- 4 = 4
9 Middlebury 26-4 431 4 9- 5 = 4
10 Whitworth 26-4 406 7 10-12 = 2
11 Wittenberg 24-7 340 22 11-11 = 0
12 Wooster 26-5 319 15 12-9 = 3
13 Wheaton (Ill.) 23-7 261 24 13-25 = 12
14 Eastern Connecticut 24-6 234 21 14-NR = 41 * NR in top 55
Average of 14 deviations = 13.3

Pat Coleman · October 28, 2012, 02:42:48 PM

Quote from: ECSUalum on October 28, 2012, 01:18:39 PM
Here is how good the predictions were last year with repsect to 2011/12 Preseason poll vs Final poll
for ONLY the top 14 teams in the Final poll. You make the judgement on how good the preseason polls are!!!!
I say they are poor, or not much research put into developing the preseason poll

D3hoops.com men's Top 25, final
Through end of 2011-12 season: rank deviation between
preseason and final polls
# School (1st votes) Rec Pts Prev. -------------------------

1 UW-Whitewater (25) 29-4 625 8 1-28 = 27
2 Cabrini 31-2 600 5 2-14 = 12
3 Illinois Wesleyan 23-8 551 3-38 = 35
4 MIT 29-2 543 3 4-10 = 6
5 Virginia Wesleyan 27-4 489 6 5-1 = 4
6 Hope 27-2 469 1 6- 32 = 26
7 Franklin and Marshall 28-3 467 9 7- 17 = 10
8 Amherst 26-3 458 2 8- 4 = 4
9 Middlebury 26-4 431 4 9- 5 = 4
10 Whitworth 26-4 406 7 10-12 = 2
11 Wittenberg 24-7 340 22 11-11 = 0
12 Wooster 26-5 319 15 12-9 = 3
13 Wheaton (Ill.) 23-7 261 24 13-25 = 12
14 Eastern Connecticut 24-6 234 21 14-NR = 41 * NR in top 55
Average of 14 deviations = 13.3

I'd be glad to let you have a copy of the research I send out and you can spend time trying to rank teams so that fans can come take potshots at them a year later.

There are always surprise teams -- that's why we play the games. But I see from your list that half of the teams you posted were within a half-dozen spots of their original placement after 6,000 games were played. I call that good. There are always teams that surprise in any sport. (Oakland A's, anyone?)

Titan Q · October 28, 2012, 02:47:23 PM

Quote from: ECSUalum on October 28, 2012, 01:18:39 PM
Here is how good the predictions were last year with repsect to 2011/12 Preseason poll vs Final poll
for ONLY the top 14 teams in the Final poll. You make the judgement on how good the preseason polls are!!!!
I say they are poor, or not much research put into developing the preseason poll

D3hoops.com men's Top 25, final
Through end of 2011-12 season: rank deviation between
preseason and final polls
# School (1st votes) Rec Pts Prev. -------------------------

1 UW-Whitewater (25) 29-4 625 8 1-28 = 27
2 Cabrini 31-2 600 5 2-14 = 12
3 Illinois Wesleyan 23-8 551 3-38 = 35
4 MIT 29-2 543 3 4-10 = 6
5 Virginia Wesleyan 27-4 489 6 5-1 = 4
6 Hope 27-2 469 1 6- 32 = 26
7 Franklin and Marshall 28-3 467 9 7- 17 = 10
8 Amherst 26-3 458 2 8- 4 = 4
9 Middlebury 26-4 431 4 9- 5 = 4
10 Whitworth 26-4 406 7 10-12 = 2
11 Wittenberg 24-7 340 22 11-11 = 0
12 Wooster 26-5 319 15 12-9 = 3
13 Wheaton (Ill.) 23-7 261 24 13-25 = 12
14 Eastern Connecticut 24-6 234 21 14-NR = 41 * NR in top 55
Average of 14 deviations = 13.3

As a former voter in the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll I can tell you that, 1) voting in the preseason poll is really difficult, and 2) a lot of research, analysis, and thought goes into it by 25 people that know and care about Division III and want to establish the most accurate preseason poll possible.

ECSUalum · October 28, 2012, 03:14:24 PM

No need to get defensive boys!! these results are a matter of opinion,( I presume we can still offer up our opinions on these threads, right?) and mine, based on doing similar comparisons over the years, is that preseason polls, no matter, baseball, basketball, soccer, are poor in predicting the final polls results, therefore, why do them!!! Why not wait for 5-10 games played and all the rosters published, and then rank the teams, would that not be more accurate?
Titan.. I am not making a judgement on how much the people who do the predictions CARE about D-III sports!! Only on the results of preseason poll accuracy

For example, Where is one getting info on the recruiting of freshman/transfer players for the top 50 teams?. I presume you do that as part of your formula for coming up with rankings. Are all the team schedules published when the pre-poll is announced?

BTW, I, (and I would imagine a lot of other people), would like to see the research, where is it published?

Has anyone published the track record over the last 5-10 years on pre vs final D-III polls? That would be interesting as well!!

Pat, got to take the good with the bad

Pat Coleman · October 28, 2012, 04:44:55 PM

Quote from: ECSUalum on October 28, 2012, 03:14:24 PM
No need to get defensive boys!! these results are a matter of opinion,( I presume we can still offer up our opinions on these threads, right?) and mine, based on doing similar comparisons over the years, is that preseason polls, no matter, baseball, basketball, soccer, are poor in predicting the final polls results, therefore, why do them!!! Why not wait for 5-10 games played and all the rosters published, and then rank the teams, would that not be more accurate?
Titan.. I am not making a judgement on how much the people who do the predictions CARE about D-III sports!! Only on the results of preseason poll accuracy

For example, Where is one getting info on the recruiting of freshman/transfer players for the top 50 teams?. I presume you do that as part of your formula for coming up with rankings. Are all the team schedules published when the pre-poll is announced?

BTW, I, (and I would imagine a lot of other people), would like to see the research, where is it published?

Has anyone published the track record over the last 5-10 years on pre vs final D-III polls? That would be interesting as well!!

Pat, got to take the good with the bad

We send out a preseason request to about 60 Division III schools. Here's what we got from Albertus Magnus, for example (since they are first alphabetically, it's an easy copy and paste). Not everyone provides information on incoming recruits, and let's be honest, most freshmen don't have a great impact on a team that has Top 25 hopes.

School   Albertus Magnus
Same coach?    Yes
W-L record    28-2
Conf record    GNAC, 18-0
NCAA tourney    Yes
Wins in tourney   1
Eliminated by   Middlebury
Returning starters   4
Returners 15+ mins   6
Total points   2599
Points returning   1763
Pct. returning   68%
Total rebounds   1243
Rebounds returning   836
Pct. returning   67%
Rebound margin   8.9
Total assists   489
Assists returning   440
Pct. returning   90%
Total steals   277
Steals returning   218
Pct. returning   79%
Total turnovers   458
Turnovers returning   356
Pct. returning   78%
Who's gone?    Ray Askew
Returning starter 1
Name    Darius Watson
position    G
height    6-5
PPG   19.1
Year    Jr.
Notes    52.3 FG%, 41.7 3PT%, 31 minutes per game
Returning starter 2
Name    Arshad Jackson
position    G
height    5-10
PPG   12
Year    Sr.
Notes    Led team with 31.2 minutes per game, 159 assists and 57 steals
Returning starter 3
Name    Zach Dugas
position    G
height    6-2
PPG   6.3
Year    Sr.
Notes    104 assists, 83.3 FT%
Returning starter 4
Name    Jefferson Lora
position    C
height    6-8
PPG   7.4
Year    Sr.
Notes    5.5 rpg, 53.7 FG%
Returning starter 5
Name
position
height
PPG
Year
Notes
Returning starter 6
Name
position
height
PPG
Year
Notes
Newcomer 1
Frosh/Trans?
where from
position
height
name
stats
Newcomer 2
Frosh/Trans?
where from
position
height
name
stats
Newcomer 3
Frosh/Trans?
where from
position
height
name
stats
Newcomer 4
Frosh/Trans?
where from
position
height
name
stats
Other notes    Spencer Smith will look to fill the void left by Ray Askew. In 2011-12, Smith averaged 15.3 minutes, 4.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.

Titan Q · October 28, 2012, 06:31:00 PM

Quote from: ECSUalum on October 28, 2012, 03:14:24 PM
No need to get defensive boys!! these results are a matter of opinion,( I presume we can still offer up our opinions on these threads, right?)

Absolutely we can offer up our opinions -- it's what these boards are for. But when you make a statement as aggressive as you did...

Quote from: ECSUalum on October 28, 2012, 01:18:39 PM
You make the judgement on how good the preseason polls are!!!!
I say they are poor, or not much research put into developing the preseason poll

...you can probably expect to get back a little defensiveness from those who support and/or administer the D3hoops.com poll.

smedindy · October 28, 2012, 06:50:54 PM

In reality, you'd need to do a 5-year study (at the least) on pre-season vs. final polls, and perhaps factor in injuries and defections and other wild cards to really want to get down to how pre-season polls add up to the final poll.

And really, the final poll is just window dressing. The actual action is the tournament, so you may ALSO want to do a 5-year study on that, noting that the draw many times puts elite teams against each other earlier than a purely seeded tournament would.

ECSUalum · October 28, 2012, 06:52:14 PM

The stats do not lie!!!

Pat Coleman · October 28, 2012, 06:53:59 PM

Or midseason additions, like Cabrini had last year. No way to account for that in October.

Your "stats" are half a slice of one year's poll. Compare that to other polls, while you're at it. You've done about 5% of the necessary work, just enough to satisfy your own point of view.