Top 25 talk

[Greek Tragedy]

I've been waiting for your results post!  Thanks +1

[John Gleich]

Can you track Concordia of Texas too? They're behind Mary Hardin Baylor in their division of the ASC.

[Darryl Nester]

Can you track Concordia of Texas too? They're behind Mary Hardin Baylor in their division of the ASC.

John -- I'll include them this coming week (assuming they get no votes tomorrow).

[Mr. Ypsi]

Darryl, I was going to suggest you drop Cabrini - then saw you already did!  I thought the return of Walton-Moss would make them a Top 25 team; I was mistaken!

+k again for doing this - I always get PP ballots a couple of hours after you post!

[Darryl Nester]

Darryl, I was going to suggest you drop Cabrini - then saw you already did!  I thought the return of Walton-Moss would make them a Top 25 team; I was mistaken!

I usually only add extra teams on a week-to-week basis, unless someone requests them a second time.  If MHB or Cortland State get no votes tomorrow, they won't appear on the Thursday report unless someone wants to see them again. (Send me a PM or post it here.)

[Titan Q]

It will be interesting to see what the voters do with #5 North Central, with two tough road losses this week (@ IWU, @ Wheaton in OT).  What's interesting is that Massey didn't consider either game an "upset". 

* Before the game @ IWU, Massey had North Central #4 and IWU #11...and Massey predicted a 2-point IWU win.  The game ended up being a tight, one possession-type game that IWU pulled out in the final minute.

* Before the game @ Wheaton, Massey had North Central #8 and Wheaton #16...and Massey predicted a 5-point Wheaton win.  Wheaton won in overtime.

(North Central sits at #8 in Massey - http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&yr=2013&sub=11620.)


Sometimes I think the human/subjective polls are too hard on teams that lose tough games on the road (especially conference games).  Most times losses automatically mean lost poll points.

[Pat Coleman]

But you also know from watching our poll regularly, from both the inside and outside, that that isn't as much the case. Many of our voters don't automatically drop a team for every loss.

[nescac1]

I'm curious to see how Williams, Amherst and Midd are grouped.  Midd has the best record vs. teams other than the other two, but the worst head-to-head, and Amherst is the opposite.  Given Midd's weak schedule to date (has played two tough opponents and split them, winning by a point and losing by a point, otherwise, a bunch of largely-outmatched opponents), I'd rank it just behind the other two.  Amherst had some injury issues in its earlier losses and right now is at full strength and, accordingly, seems to be playing the best of the three.  But it still has road games vs. both remaining, and Midd MAY get one or two key reserves back from injuries, while Williams rebounded nicely from a tough week with the Midd win on Saturday.  I see all three (each has substantial flaws, but does any team this year NOT have noticeable flaws?) as right below the nationally elite (top five) level of some of the best Amherst/Williams/Midd squads in recent years, but also comfortably within the top 20 ... I'd put them all in a cluster right around the 8-12 range.  Which is probably where they will end up ...

[Titan Q]

But you also know from watching our poll regularly, from both the inside and outside, that that isn't as much the case. Many of our voters don't automatically drop a team for every loss.

Oh, no question, Pat.

[Titan Q]

NCC only dropped 2 spots.  Whether people agree with that or not, I really think it demonstrates the degree the D3hoops.com voters look at things.

[(509)Rat]

I really appreciate everything d3hoops does...but this latest poll has me very confused. NCC only drops 2, staying 5 spots ahead of IWU. Midd, Williams, and Amherst are in the exact opposite order when comparing performances against each other. Also, Transylvania over Rose-Hulman...so head to head all of a sudden matters on that end of the poll? . Good thing none of this matters, the tourney will sort it all out. 

Some real head scratchers in this one. Not much in the way of consistency in terms of how most of the teams are ranked.

[Pat Coleman]

I really appreciate everything d3hoops does...but this latest poll has me very confused. NCC only drops 2, staying 5 spots ahead of IWU. Midd, Williams, and Amherst are in the exact opposite order when comparing performances against each other. Also, Transylvania over Rose-Hulman...so head to head all of a sudden matters on that end of the poll? . Good thing none of this matters, the tourney will sort it all out. 

Some real head scratchers in this one. Not much in the way of consistency in terms of how most of the teams are ranked.

Rat -- what is the "proper" order for Amherst, Williams and Middlebury when the three teams split against each other? For me, Middlebury lost by one on the road, so that's hardly a ringing mandate for Williams beating Midd on a neutral floor.

[Pat Coleman]

Sorry, that's not even true because Amherst and Middlebury haven't played yet. I don't think you can look at this and say there's one set in stone order it must be.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I really appreciate everything d3hoops does...but this latest poll has me very confused. NCC only drops 2, staying 5 spots ahead of IWU. Midd, Williams, and Amherst are in the exact opposite order when comparing performances against each other. Also, Transylvania over Rose-Hulman...so head to head all of a sudden matters on that end of the poll? . Good thing none of this matters, the tourney will sort it all out. 

Some real head scratchers in this one. Not much in the way of consistency in terms of how most of the teams are ranked.

I'll take them in order.  I spent a lot of time musing over these very issues for the Posters Poll today.

NCC is pretty banged up right now and going through a very difficult patch of games.  The CCIW is really good this year, even by their own standards.  I also think the conference's prominence gives them extra attention from the voters.  If you're watching the league even a little, you can see that NCC's very, very good.  I think if they continue to lose, rather than rebound, you'll see the polls look more like the conference standings.

As for the NESCAC, I suspect we'll see more after the Midd-Amherst game.  Middlebury actually helped their profile keeping it close at Williams.  I certainly didn't expect that; I imagine it surprised some voters as well.  Amherst had the best team returning, but they were sorely underperforming early in the season.  The voters tend to make teams that start out slowly work for their ranking, much the same way they give strong teams (like NCC) the benefit of the doubt if they slow down in the middle of the season.

As for Transy and RHIT, I've been tracking them both all season.  Transy's schedule is way, way better.  Rose-Hulman being ranked earlier was more a result of their strong record and voters not know exactly how strong the schedule was.  Clearly the head-to-head proved something, but it didn't change much.  Neither team was ranked last week and they were separated by less than one position's worth of votes.

[John Gleich]

I know NC only dropped two poll spots, but how many points did they lose relative to others in the poll? I'm not home yet so it's tougher to look... I can do it when I got home.

Some things are simply due to poll dynamics and what happened to others around NC did this week.