Top 25 talk

[David Collinge]

I struggled to put Oxy on my PP ballot - because their SOS is heinous. I do think that matters.

It matters; but FWIW, I'll personally vouch for Oxy.  They're quite good, and I have little doubt that they should be among the top 25 teams in the nation.

[smedindy]

I did vote for them on my ballot, finally, but I guess the proof will come in tourney time, like it always does.

[Greek Tragedy]

Alright I need opinions on why UW-LaCrosse is not ranked or even receiving votes.  15-3 overall, a best in the WIAC 14-3 in-region record.

I'm stumped

No votes at all.  That's what stumps me.

Ralph,

I figure a ballot with NO WIAC teams is virtually an invalid ballot, but there is also no one who has separated themselves. On my PP ballot I eventually put Oshkosh #20, LAX #24, and Whitewater #25.

You left Stout off your ballot?  They beat Whitewater the week before!  Whitewater lost their only game of the week at home.

I wouldn't really say the CCIW has anyone that has totally separated themselves from the rest, aside from Augustana, who is 6-0 with three other teams at 4-2 or 3-2. 

Caroll is a great choice for the top 25... the played #3 Lawrence really close this week, they beat Whitewater who is receiving votes, Carthage @ Carthage, and they lost to Oshkosh by only one. I'm confused as to why they are a bad choice? 

Carroll is long overdue to get into the poll, April, but this isn't the week they should've debuted.  Sure, they hung tough with Lawrence, but they barely beat a poor Beloit team at home.  as I said in the Poster's Poll board, it was like when Ill. Wes. barely beat Carthage, it hurt them more in the polls than the actual loss to North Central.  Had Carroll romped on Beloit at home by 20+, I would've even voted for them in the Poster's Poll (I did the week before). 

You make points about Carroll beating Whitewater and losing to Oshkosh by one.  But, when were those games?  The Whitewater game was the 2nd game of the season and the Oshkosh game was mid-December.  I'm not trying to take anything away from those wins, but they were months ago.  What, the voters are finally figuring out that Carroll is a good team now?  They should've been in the Top 25 awhile ago.  That's my point.  Now was not the time, IMO.  Did you notice that Carroll has the same amount of votes as they did last week? 

[Mr. Ypsi]

I really wanted some WIAC advice on voting, but neither you nor PS had yet voted on the PP, and I didn't want to contaminate that.  In retrospect, I probably would swap Stout and Whitewater, but it wouldn't really change anything.

The WIAC appears to be even MORE of a mess than usual!

[Pat Coleman]

Carroll is long overdue to get into the poll, April, but this isn't the week they should've debuted. 

Well, you can't complain about the timing, either they're worthy or they're not.

As for the vote total, yes, I did notice that. I thought it was oddly low for a Top 25 team and then I looked and saw that indeed, it was.

[Greek Tragedy]

Well, you can't complain about the timing, either they're worthy or they're not.

Come on Pat, even you can't believe that!  They were worthy back then and they are worthy now (if they were in the poll before!).  A loss and then a close win at home against a subpar Beloit team doesn't deem them worthy if they weren't in the poll in the first place. 

So, yeah, I am complaining about the timing! 

[Greek Tragedy]

Oh yeah, another thing, Pat...

I was adding up all the votes of each team so far in the Top25 poll (and those receiving votes) and my numbers don't add up.

The total vote count in the preseason poll is 8121, the 1st week is 8126 and then Weeks 2 and 3 (only got that far) are both at 8125.  So, I looked over the preseason poll again to make sure I got the votes correct and I did, and they still come out to be 8121.  Are my eyes bad or can this actually happen with the numbers off?  Just curious.

[Pat Coleman]

Yeah, David Collinge points these out to me occasionally. I don't recall what caused these two initially, probably a typo on my part at some point. But I usually stick with the poll once it's released unless the error is really heinous, like running last week's No. 1 votes or something like that.

[sixer]

How did WPI drop down a spot when they went 2-0 for the week and moved to the top of their conference?  Carnegie Mellon is the #14 slot above WPI and they lost at home to unranked Case Western

People may complain that WPI has won a lot of close games, but they're still 15-1 and have an opportunity to avenge their only loss @ Clark tonight.

[Pat Coleman]

Carnegie Mellon is not relevant to WPI dropping. Wartburg is the team that passed WPI, if you look at the previous week.

[Ralph Turner]

Carnegie Mellon is not relevant to WPI dropping. Wartburg is the team that passed WPI, if you look at the previous week.

Sixer, Wartburg gained 70 votes, almost 3 places on each of the 25 ballots.

The Massey MOV (Margin of Victory) ranking has WPI at a very weak #51.  That is not much respect for the NEWMAC or the opponents in the Northeast Region. 

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=1

WPI is only 24th in Massey's Ratings that do not use MOV.

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=6

Pat's pollsters are giving you "much more love" than the number crunching thinks you deserve.

One other thought that has to be in the back of everyone's mind is that the 2003 Williams team is the only Northeast Region team to win one of the 31 D3 Championships since 1975.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

WPI's problem is not that they win close games, it's that they win close games repeatedly, and against sub-par competition.  A top 25 team should not even be close to some of those teams, even on a bad night.  The NE Region got overrated at the beginning of the year and WPI is still enjoying the benefits of that.  I think some voters are starting to realize that they just aren't up to the level of some of the Midwest schools.

[Coach C]

WPI's problem has nothing really to do with MOV.  It has to do with QOO - quality of opponent.  And we can't relly say that the NE is overvalued to the MW since we have so few inter-region games due to the NCAA's brilliance.

C

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

And we can't relly say that the NE is overvalued to the MW since we have so few inter-region games due to the NCAA's brilliance.

C

I can say it, C.


No qualms.

[Mr. Ypsi]

A statistical anomaly in the Posters' Poll this week (not having access to Pat's data, I obviously don't know whether or not this happens in the d3hoops poll): Wartburg finished 9th, even though NO voter listed them higher than 10th!  Consistency of opinion can do wonders!  Nearly all our voters had Wartburg 10th or low teens - their worst ranking was 16th; the teams they beat out usually had one or more votes higher than 10th, but also some very low rankings (or were left out entirely).

This 'consistency of opinion' may shed some light on rankings changes that otherwise seem incongruous.