Top 25 talk

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The stars really aligned for tonight, didn't they?  We're getting the top two teams in a host of conferences playing each other, plus tough conferences tests for a number of other ranked teams:

IWu @ Augustana
Point at Whitewater
Tommies at St Olaf
F&M at Dickinson
Mt Union @ Marietta
VAWes at Macon

Even Stockton at Rowan and Babson at MIT

Hampden Sydney at Lynchburg and Baldwin Wallace at John Carroll down the list as well.

[Greek Tragedy]

Yeah, definitely a pretty nice schedule. Should be a triple header on ESPN OCHO or something.

[D3HoopJunkie]

Plus K to Greek.....Anytime I see a Dodgeball reference I gotta dish out the +++++++++

[HOPEful]

It sure is! But it's great when people are willing and able to engage on the topic without it turning into ax-grinding.

Pat, I appologize if I took your comment out of context. Also if I overreacted. Happens occationally  Moving forward, I will try to express my opinions without using MIAA teams as the examples. I think often valid points are poo pooed away as, "Here's another ____ fan crying that their team is under ranked while ____ is over ranked"

Think D1 and Wichita State, Butler, etc. that don't have the same long-term resumes as Kentucky, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina, the top Big 10 schools...

But if a 12-1 Western Kentucky team starts the season by beating Kentucky, I don't care what they've done in any other season. They've got my attention and votes if they continue to preform and that level/don't lose... Essentially, isn't this what St. Olaf did when they beat Stevens Point?

I'm not trying to say that the Whitewaters, Amhersts, and Washingtons of the world should be on equal playing field with everyone else. I'm just saying that it seems like the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction, and very bad or multiple losses are shrugged off when you are a have and seem to damn your entire season when you are a have not.

[Pat Coleman]

But if a 12-1 Western Kentucky team starts the season by beating Kentucky, I don't care what they've done in any other season. They've got my attention and votes if they continue to preform and that level/don't lose... Essentially, isn't this what St. Olaf did when they beat Stevens Point?

Not really, because the order of events is different. If St. Olaf was 12-1 at the time they beat UWSP, rather than 1-0, then you'd have a different story, for sure, because St. Olaf would already on the radar more than the 31 points they got in the preseason poll. Also, beating a team by one point at home isn't necessarily a sign that the winning team is also the better team, and that's something that comes up all the time. Who's the better team? That's the question we're trying to answer, not just line up teams by wins and losses. On a neutral floor, it is reasonable for a voter to believe UWSP is the better team. This was a legit one-point game, not a game in which UWSP threw in a late 3 to make it closer than it seemed.

And although most voters probably aren't aware of this (certainly not something in the packet of info I share with them), the foul that sent St. Olaf to the line with a few seconds left appears to be debatable. Some of the debate: http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4423.15810

But on a more general level -- in addition to the home-court advantage part, sometimes early-season wins get lost in the shuffle. Voters are trying to deal with a bunch of stuff all at once in that first regular-season poll. Overreacting to one win more often than not will lead to us as voters having to correct again later. It's a matter of striking the right balance.

The weekly voting packet reminds voters of the last 4-5 weeks of results, plus a list of every team that a Top 25 candidate has lost to and what their current record is vs. D-III teams. They will always know, for example, that UWSP lost 70-69 at St. Olaf. It's up to them to decide how to interpret it. This year, even more than most, it's difficult to go to a voter and say they are absolutely wrong on a particular point.

Hope this helps.

[Greek Tragedy]

St. Olaf essential got the same love they did at the end of last year. The final poll had them 36th or so. The preseason poll had them at 37th with more votes. They ended with the same overall record as St. Thomas and finished a game back in the MIAC standings.  They went 1-2 vs the Tommies, but lost their 1st round NCAA tourney game by double-figures. Had they won one game or at least not been beaten that bad, they might have gotten more love.

Their win over Point helped them move up to 26th in the 1st poll. Their double-digit road loss to Bethel knocked them out of the poll this year. I've always felt it harder to get (back) into the poll than it is to drop out.

[Greek Tragedy]

Plus K to Greek.....Anytime I see a Dodgeball reference I gotta dish out the +++++++++

Thanks. Love Jason Bateman's commentary!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Personally, I tend to discount (not ignore) games the first week of the season, those in x-mas/new years tournaments (or the first game after a long holiday layoff), and big time rivalry games.  Something different happens there.  Those games still matter, but I have less faith in those outcomes being as indicative as games in the middle of the season, when teams are on semi-regular schedules.

[Greek Tragedy]

Let me review.

Games Hoops Fan discounts (not ignores)

-1st week games
-holiday tournaments
-games coming off long layoffs
-rivalry games

Should we add:

-2nd night of back to back games
-games after rivalry games (possible let downs)
-sandwich/trap games (games between rivalry games)
-games immediately prior or after Finals/Midterms

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Let me review.

Games Hoops Fan discounts (not ignores)

-1st week games
-holiday tournaments
-games coming off long layoffs
-rivalry games

Should we add:

-2nd night of back to back games
-games after rivalry games (possible let downs)
-sandwich/trap games (games between rivalry games)
-games immediately prior or after Finals/Midterms

I certainly take those situations (and all situations) into account, but usually just for picking games in the post-season.  At some point you have to draw a line between what matters on one night and what matters over the course of a season.

[HOPEful]

They went 1-2 vs the Tommies, but lost their 1st round NCAA tourney game by double-figures. Had they won one game or at least not been beaten that bad, they might have gotten more love.

A 13 point loss and a 10 point loss are clearly being called by "double-figures" and a "double digit" loss in order to exaggerate your point here. I hardly think a 10 point loss to Central at a neutral site or a 13 point loss at Bethel are bad losses. It only illustrates my point further.

Augustana's only loss this year is to Central. By "double digits" (11)! I don't believe St. Olaf should be ranked above Auggie. Again, I'm not arguing St. Olaf is better than Augustana. I just think it's hypocritical to damn one team for a loss they incurred last year and brush it under the rug for another team.

[monsoon]

The weekly voting packet reminds voters of the last 4-5 weeks of results, plus a list of every team that a Top 25 candidate has lost to and what their current record is vs. D-III teams. They will always know, for example, that UWSP lost 70-69 at St. Olaf. It's up to them to decide how to interpret it.

Thanks, Pat. I appreciated this peek behind the curtain.

[Pat Coleman]

The weekly voting packet reminds voters of the last 4-5 weeks of results, plus a list of every team that a Top 25 candidate has lost to and what their current record is vs. D-III teams. They will always know, for example, that UWSP lost 70-69 at St. Olaf. It's up to them to decide how to interpret it.

Thanks, Pat. I appreciated this peek behind the curtain.

I meant to give you a better peek. Here's the UWSP resume as our voters received on Sunday afternoon. Some also keep other notes and do more tracking, but this is indicative of what we pull from the database and send each week.

UW-Stevens Point (13-3)
Dec. 3 7:00 PM UW-Eau Claire (6-10) * • W, 64-50
Dec. 6 3:00 PM UW-Superior (8-9) * • W, 77-54
Dec. 10 7:00 PM at UW-Stout (3-13) * • W, 73-56
Dec. 13 3:00 PM at Lawrence (5-7) • W, 60-49
Dec. 20 7:00 PM at St. Thomas (12-1) • L, 68-66
Dec. 29 4:00 PM at Pomona-Pitzer (2-12) • W, 57-49
Dec. 31 4:00 PM at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (11-3) • W, 71-65
Jan. 7 7:00 PM UW-Platteville (11-5) * • W, 74-55
Jan. 10 7:00 PM at UW-Oshkosh (10-6) * • W, 83-57
Jan. 14 7:00 PM UW-La Crosse (7-9) * • W, 57-46
Jan. 17 5:00 PM at UW-River Falls (6-10) * • W, 58-51
Jan. 21 7:00 PM at UW-Whitewater (14-2) * •
Jan. 24 7:00 PM UW-Oshkosh (10-6) * •
Losses: St. Olaf (12-1) 69-70 (V); North Central (Ill.) (13-3) 63-56 (H); St. Thomas (12-1) 66-68 (V);

[Greek Tragedy]

I actually never said they were bad losses. Whether you think I am implied that is entirely up to you. I'm going to view a 1 to 4 point win/loss differently than I would view a 10-13 point win/loss. I'm confident that's the norm rather than the exception here. I usually do not have the time to scroll through play by plays to see the circumstances on how such results occurred.

Had St. Olaf beaten Stevens Point by "double-digits", I'm confident that the Oles would've received even more votes in that following poll. Point's double-digit home loss looks worse than had they lost by 2, IMO. In the same manner, Point's road two losses by a combined 3 points to two teams with a combined record of  26-2 looks pretty good. Had Point been beaten by double-figures both times, they may not even be ranked now. So yeah, margin of victory/loss does play a part in ot. The circumstances leading up to those results also play a part in it.

St. Olaf's loss in the tourney, they were basically down double-digits the whole 2nd half and most of the 1st. They did cut the lead to 4 or 5 midway through the 2nd half but Central built it back up to as many as 18 with 2 minutes to go. It's not like the Oles were down 5 with 2 minutes to go and they played the "foul to stop the clock and pray they miss frwe throws" game. They were thoroughly beaten from the looks of it.

[HOPEful]

I would just not worry about, you cannot win even attempt to make an argument against the masters of this universe, every argument you make will be spun into whining about your team not getting votes.  Then you'll be negged to death.
2 weeks ago IWU didn't have the resume to be ranked, you know it, I know it.   Leave it at that.

Uncle.