Top 25 talk

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Looked at Brooklyn's roster tonight.  Three dudes all seniors all named Gjonbalaj.  I did a story on them last year, could've sworn there was only one Gjonbalaj.  Is Brooklyn doing secret human cloning work?  If so, they may need to be ranked higher than #24.  They look pretty similar in the team photo.

Even crazier?  If you google "gjonbalaj triplets" you get a bunch of youtube videos with 14 year old soccer players from Staten Island.  Maybe the cloning thing is just a family project?

[Pat Coleman]

There may be 10 new teams in the top 25 but it is also clear that voters have trouble admitting their preseason mistakes so we still have two teams with 2 losses that are still ranked despite very unimpressive results.    At this stage, I would expect that a 2 loss team that is ranked would have 2 quality losses and/or have 1-2 quality wins that suggest they are deserving of a Top 25 ranking.

#15 Viriginia Wesleyan (4-2) and #22 Catholic (3-2) fit neither description so they are still ranked because the voters cannot admit their preseason mistakes.

#15 Virginia Wesleyan (4-2)
-Have a Loss vs. a team that has a record of 1-3 (that's right...they beat Va. Wesleyan and then LOST their next 3 games)
-3 of Virginia Wesleyan's 4 Wins are against Teams that have a Losing Record so far this season

#22 Catholic (3-2)
-Have a Loss to a team with a record of 3-2
-Catholic's 3 wins are against 3 teams that have a cumulative record of 4-11

No logical reason for these two teams with 2 losses and unimpressive results to be ranked ahead of other undefeated or 1 loss teams.

I agree, some of these rankings make no sense. How dose a team get beat by 30 and move up one spot

I suppose you mean F&M? They moved down a spot, rather than up, but I don't think that was the only game that F&M played in the first 17 days either. Lots of churn in the early poll.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There may be 10 new teams in the top 25 but it is also clear that voters have trouble admitting their preseason mistakes so we still have two teams with 2 losses that are still ranked despite very unimpressive results.    At this stage, I would expect that a 2 loss team that is ranked would have 2 quality losses and/or have 1-2 quality wins that suggest they are deserving of a Top 25 ranking.

#15 Viriginia Wesleyan (4-2) and #22 Catholic (3-2) fit neither description so they are still ranked because the voters cannot admit their preseason mistakes.

#15 Virginia Wesleyan (4-2)
-Have a Loss vs. a team that has a record of 1-3 (that's right...they beat Va. Wesleyan and then LOST their next 3 games)
-3 of Virginia Wesleyan's 4 Wins are against Teams that have a Losing Record so far this season

#22 Catholic (3-2)
-Have a Loss to a team with a record of 3-2
-Catholic's 3 wins are against 3 teams that have a cumulative record of 4-11

No logical reason for these two teams with 2 losses and unimpressive results to be ranked ahead of other undefeated or 1 loss teams.

Well let's consider a few things:
- How far these two teams actually fell:
   - VWC was #2 and fell to #15 losing 245 points... that's a lot
   - CUA was #6 and fell to #22 losing 291 points... that's a ton.
   - There is a point where a team falling from high in a poll can only fall so far before a cushion of some kind breaks their fall. Call it Top 25 physics. LOL
- Yes, Wesley's loss was bad, though it was close (near buzzer beater). However, their other loss which you decided to apparently ignore was to Salisbury who is now ranked #17 at an undefeated 5-0. They also have a win over Averett which you may not think is much, but they are off to a pretty good start this season as well.
- Catholic may have some tough losses, but there are a number of buzzer beaters in there. It isn't all about the line score, but what actually happened in the games.
- We can also talk about reputation, which so many people hate. I am not saying it is a deciding factor, BUT many voters know VWC, for example, is a team that is always solid, well coached, and deserving of being nationally ranked.

So I would counter there are several logical reasons to keep those two programs in the Top 25... it's not black and white. There is a lot that goes into these things and a lot of teams came out of the poll for various reasons... and a lot of teams who entered the poll for various reasons.

I would also like to counter the "it is also clear that voters have trouble admitting their preseason mistakes." What exactly does that mean? Voters vote. Misreading teams, injuries, unexpected surprises, strange bounces of the ball can do a wonder of things that will have voters, like myself, reevaluating their choices. I don't see those choices and votes as mistakes. It's not like we have to go out and apologize for voting for teams in a certain manner.

But this isn't easy. 59 teams received votes this week! 59! Seven teams in the Top 25 I don't have on my ballot and some of them I'm not even considering for my reasons (blog tomorrow). There are a TON of questions in what is a wide open season. Voters aren't making mistakes, they are simply doing their best to determine who the best 25 teams in the country are. We certainly don't all agree (obviously), but your statement of saying they are making "mistakes" makes it seem like you know better, that the voters aren't trying or taking this seriously. Maybe I am reading that wrong... and if that is the case... my mistake.

I agree, some of these rankings make no sense. How dose a team get beat by 30 and move up one spot

I am not sure what team you are referring to specifically (I assume F&M, though they moved down a spot), but there are a couple of things to consider here as well:
- There was 17 days between the start of the season and now. One game does not really make a statement to a resume. There are anywhere from two to seven games to consider for teams. The entire resume will always be considered, but this week it truly is the case. So one game, even a 30-point loss, is being outweighed by other factors.
- Did you notice how many points they lost (as they fell a spot)? I am pretty sure we are talking about F&M... if so, they lost 52 points. That's at least two spots per voter if all 25 voters voted for them - but it's a bigger fall than that because F&M is one of the seven teams I didn't vote for this week, so not all voters are voting for them and thus those who are voting for them gave them a bigger hit than two spots on their ballots.
- It's not a vacuum. Looking at one team and whether they went up or down doesn't tell you what really happened. You have to look at what happened around them with team. F&M is surrounded by teams who are either new to the poll or dropped from way up. That means F&M took a hit, but there were a lot of teams on all the ballots moving around them as well.
- Let's not pretend the loss didn't have some kind of affect. Lancaster Bible went from not being on anyone's radar to receiving some love from the voters (ORV with 8 points).
- You are also don't seem to be looking at the entire poll if you are angry about this, why are you not angry that Hope moved up 11 spots despite a seven point loss or UWSP moved up two spots despite a loss to Hope (which makes sense if you look at the entire poll). What about Marietta? They moved up two despite a loss as well. And let's not forget UW-Whitewater... they went from UNRANKED to RANKED despite losing a game. Not all losses are equal, not all point spreads are equal, not all results are equal.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

And what Pat said. LOL

[Gregory Sager]

- Yes, Wesley's loss was bad, though it was close (near buzzer beater). However, their other loss which you decided to apparently ignore was to Salisbury who is now ranked #17 at an undefeated 5-0.

I'm not getting into the middle of this argument, but, to be fair to wsf, this is what he said (emphasis added):

There may be 10 new teams in the top 25 but it is also clear that voters have trouble admitting their preseason mistakes so we still have two teams with 2 losses that are still ranked despite very unimpressive results.    At this stage, I would expect that a 2 loss team that is ranked would have 2 quality losses and/or have 1-2 quality wins that suggest they are deserving of a Top 25 ranking.

As you yourself said, D-Mac, VWC's loss to Wesley (1-3) was bad. Therefore, wsf didn't "apparently ignore" the fact that Salisbury was ranked. Rather, Salisbury's status simply isn't germane to wsf's point. He said that his expectation is that a two-loss team that's ranked would have two quality losses. Since one of VWC's losses clearly isn't "quality", VWC therefore doesn't deserve to be ranked under his criterion, regardless of the status of that other loss.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well, I would agree to that point... what I should have said about Wesley's loss wasn't "bad" as a head scratcher. However, I also know VWC has had trouble playing in that gym in the past and it didn't stop them from being a pretty good team who deserved being nationally ranked - maybe they should stop playing at Wesley. LOL

I would also point out, or at least already tried, that they did take a major hit for that loss. They fell a ton in the poll. They lost a lot of points. I will double check, but I dropped them a fair distance on my ballot.

But there was also a LOT of other things going on in the poll this week. VWC took a massive hit (13 spots and a ton of points) and ten teams entered the poll where others dropped out. That is a lot of shaking up. So, just because they stayed in the poll doesn't mean they were given a break for that or even the Salisbury loss (as with CUA as well).

I think this season, there are going to be losses probably by everyone that makes no sense. There are going to be crazy weeks for the poll, there are going to be crazy choices. I am not sure about other voters, but I dropped out six teams from my ballot this week and felt like I was constantly searching for teams that deserved to be ranked. There is a massive gap in my poll from 6 to 7 - where I don't feel my number seven team should be number seven... but maybe 12 or 15... but someone has to fill in those slots. To see that... look at the point total difference between number five and six... it's massive.

I understand the point that VWC only has maybe one quality loss... however, I don't agree they weren't punished just because they remained in the Top 25.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I watched Virginia Wesleyan lose to Wesley in person.  VWC is the better team, hands down.  I chalk that one up to "first game of the year, overlooking the opponent, not quite having our chemistry together after losing so many players" problems.

However, during the course of the game, I noticed they have some real problems in the post, which factored significantly in them giving up the halftime lead - without real scoring in the post, it's tough to hold a lead.  After that game I might've put them 20th or so.

I continued to follow the box score as they continued to give up big second half leads (even in wins).  I don't think it's a Top 25 squad - not right now, not the way they're playing. 

BUT, I only know that because I saw them in the first game, noticed some stuff in person, and followed the rest of their schedule particularly.  I certainly haven't done that for every team - I doubt voters are really following that closely either.  It takes time work everything out.

They were number 2 overall, so it's going to take more than two losses to drop them all the way out.  That's just how these polls work.

The crazier thing to me, I don't see a single ODAC team worth voting for.  Roanoke is probably the best right now.  That's pretty unusual.

[scottiedawg]

I think every poll in every sport is subject to some degree of anchoring bias. While some may be due to voters not wanting to significantly deviate from their previous rankings, some is due to the way human brains work. It's hard to force yourself to analyze each team's body of work irrespective to the previous week's ranking and sentiment.

Of course, that's some of the fun in these human rankings.  I love looking at D3hoops in conjunction with Massey.

[scottiedawg]

Biggest vote gainers
Hope, 292
Benedictine, 282
WashU, 220
St. John Fisher, 194
WPI, 186
Salisbury, 181
OH Wesleyan, 139
John Carroll, 136
Christopher Newport, 133
Amherst, 131
St. Thomas, 128
Whitworth, 121
Brooklyn, 95
NYU, 80
UW-Whitewater, 47
UWSP, 37



Biggest vote losers
Catholic, -291
Mt. Union, -275
VA Wesleyan, -245
St. Olaf, -210
E. Conn, -203
Chicago, -170
Emory, -170
Dickinson, -157
UW-Oshkosh, -132
Trinity (CT), -121
Randolph-Macon, -99
IL Wesleyan, -84
Johns Hopkins, -82
Wooster, -79
Bates, -75
F&M, -52
Babson, -35
St. Norbert, -28
E. Texas Baptist, -26
Scranton, -25
Bethel, -19

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I find the Benedictine rise most surprising.  Sure, they had good wins, but I think it more likely reflects on the relative strength of Elmhurst and IWU than on Benedictine.  I think they deserve to be ranked, but maybe those other two teams shouldn't be (or shouldn't be as high).  Maybe all three of them in the 20's?

[scottiedawg]

I don't envy the voters. If I had to vote I'd make my own homegrown Massey, which would probably be fraught with theoretical and statistical errors.

The nice thing is most teams have strong enough schedules that these things work themselves out over time.

I would bet if VA Wesleyan and Catholic continue to lose, they would drop mighty fast.  As already pointed out, they did lose a ton of votes, 1st and 3rd most.  The actual drop in rankings is academic at that point.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

OK... finally got my ballot and blog posted. There was a lot to talk about this week, obviously. I do enjoy when we get further into the season and get into weekly voting as I don't have to write capsules on every single team. LOL

Here you go if you are interested: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/?p=2680

[sac]

OK... finally got my ballot and blog posted. There was a lot to talk about this week, obviously. I do enjoy when we get further into the season and get into weekly voting as I don't have to write capsules on every single team. LOL

Here you go if you are interested: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/?p=2680

fyi, Hope lost to Cornerstone by 6 not 7.  73-67

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Stupid typo... I will go and fix. Thanks. But as a result, I need Pat to adjust my ballot and move Hope UP one slot to SECOND.

[WUPHF]

OK... finally got my ballot and blog posted. There was a lot to talk about this week, obviously. I do enjoy when we get further into the season and get into weekly voting as I don't have to write capsules on every single team. LOL

Here you go if you are interested: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/?p=2680

I would agree with you on Washington University.  They are playing very good basketball at the moment and I like that almost every game has yet another player emerging as the primary offensive threat, and Johns Hopkins looked like a tough team to me, so I like that win.  But otherwise, just too soon to know.

What are your thoughts on NYU in the Top 25?