Top 25 talk

Started by Lurker, March 23, 2005, 09:02:04 AM

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smedindy

I don't think after five or six games Massey is that useful. Massey's limitations in football is that the regionality really rears its head, and there's not a lot of crossover. It takes maybe 9 weeks to get a solid idea. What I use Massey for more in football for D-3 is a reality check on the "SOS" the NCAA uses.
Wabash Always Fights!

ElRetornodelEspencio

New topic: Is there going to be a top 25 to talk about today?

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on December 05, 2016, 05:14:20 PM
New topic: Is there going to be a top 25 to talk about today?

Don't know why there wouldn't be, but there are a couple of the voters on here so they could say for sure.

Gregory Sager

There had better be. There are an awful lot of people who root for my alma mater who are waiting on this poll with bated breath.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

iwumichigander

Quote from: smedindy on December 05, 2016, 02:13:03 PM
I don't think after five or six games Massey is that useful. Massey's limitations in football is that the regionality really rears its head, and there's not a lot of crossover. It takes maybe 9 weeks to get a solid idea. What I use Massey for more in football for D-3 is a reality check on the "SOS" the NCAA uses.
Completely agree.  Massey is all about data analysis.  Not enough data at this point to really get a trend analysis.  Since most teams have either not started, or just started, conference play Massey deals with a plethora of data based on non-conference play that ranges from cupcakes to playing opponents that are clearly better than the other team. 

mailsy

The new Top 25 is out. I'm sure this is going to lead to more interesting observations.  ;D

http://d3hoops.com/top25/index
Cabrini Cavaliers 2012 National Runner-Up.
First official poster on the Atlantic East forum board.

smedindy

#9981
Not enough real info for some voters to blow up their top three.

Congrats to Mr. Sager for the North Park appearance.

Like in football, voters really had to be sure to put a team like Denison in the Top 25. The Big Red's athletics program is improving greatly.
Wabash Always Fights!

ElRetornodelEspencio

#9982
Quote from: mailsy on December 05, 2016, 06:08:00 PM
The new Top 25 is out. I'm sure this is going to lead to more interesting observations.  ;D

http://d3hoops.com/top25/index

No real change. Voters on autopilot. No big surprise.

Thanks to Ryan for being the only responsible voter.

Hope the Pios take this as the slight that it is at this point, and stay hungry.

smedindy

Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on December 05, 2016, 06:17:05 PM
Quote from: mailsy on December 05, 2016, 06:08:00 PM
The new Top 25 is out. I'm sure this is going to lead to more interesting observations.  ;D

http://d3hoops.com/top25/index

No real change. Voters on autopilot. No big surprise.

Thanks to Ryan for being the only responsible voter.

What's not responsible about voters choosing who they think is #1. It's not like someone didn't vote for Marietta, or voted someone weird as #1.
Wabash Always Fights!

ElRetornodelEspencio

Quote from: smedindy on December 05, 2016, 06:18:44 PM
Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on December 05, 2016, 06:17:05 PM
Quote from: mailsy on December 05, 2016, 06:08:00 PM
The new Top 25 is out. I'm sure this is going to lead to more interesting observations.  ;D

http://d3hoops.com/top25/index

No real change. Voters on autopilot. No big surprise.

Thanks to Ryan for being the only responsible voter.

What's not responsible about voters choosing who they think is #1. It's not like someone didn't vote for Marietta, or voted someone weird as #1.

IMO, 24 people voted someone weird as #1.

ElRetornodelEspencio

Quote from: iwumichigander on December 05, 2016, 05:49:34 PM
Quote from: smedindy on December 05, 2016, 02:13:03 PM
I don't think after five or six games Massey is that useful. Massey's limitations in football is that the regionality really rears its head, and there's not a lot of crossover. It takes maybe 9 weeks to get a solid idea. What I use Massey for more in football for D-3 is a reality check on the "SOS" the NCAA uses.
Completely agree.  Massey is all about data analysis.  Not enough data at this point to really get a trend analysis.  Since most teams have either not started, or just started, conference play Massey deals with a plethora of data based on non-conference play that ranges from cupcakes to playing opponents that are clearly better than the other team.

But that's just where such a system really is most useful. I mean you can look at conference standings and conference power ratings or something and get a pretty good idea of league play is worth for a given team. It's all of the connections that aren't obvious that computers help you get a handle on. Really that's the heavy lifting. From there the extra data points are just to get closer to being able to assume a normal distribution across the data.

There's not really a need for any trend analysis here -- only analysis of the full sweep of data available. And often times what is perceived as a trend is really the result of noise or some delta in the epsilon term that wasn't previously present (like impact of randomness on the binary result, some of which we've already seen this season). Eventually you could do some kind of time-series analysis, but it might just mean that what you think is a time-series trend is just the impact of some z variable that isn't being accounted for (which could be a whole host of things).

Eventually people will be dragged kicking and screaming to having to understand this stuff, or lose their jobs to computers. Oh well.

Gregory Sager

Suh-weet! This is North Park's first appearance in the poll since week eight of the 1999-00 season. There was a lot of ugly basketball played by the Vikings between then and now, so this really feels like a payoff for a lot of hard work during Tom Slyder's tenure as head coach to climb back from basketball oblivion; in fact, the current NPU senior class went 4-21, 1-13 as freshmen.

Now to keep it going. The first test certainly won't be an easy one, as NPU has to travel to #16 Illinois Wesleyan the day after tomorrow.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

iwumichigander

Quote from: Gregory Sager on December 05, 2016, 06:30:10 PM
Suh-weet! This is North Park's first appearance in the poll since week eight of the 1999-00 season. There was a lot of ugly basketball played by the Vikings between then and now, so this really feels like a payoff for a lot of hard work during Tom Slyder's tenure as head coach to climb back from basketball oblivion; in fact, the current NPU senior class went 4-21, 1-13 as freshmen.

Now to keep it going. The first test certainly won't be an easy one, as NPU has to travel to #16 Illinois Wesleyan the day after tomorrow.
congratulations NPU.  Vikings have come a long way.  Give credit to the players for staying with it, but Tom Slyder, and staff, certain,y deserves high praise.

ElRetornodelEspencio

Quote from: Gregory Sager on December 05, 2016, 06:30:10 PM
Suh-weet! This is North Park's first appearance in the poll since week eight of the 1999-00 season. There was a lot of ugly basketball played by the Vikings between then and now, so this really feels like a payoff for a lot of hard work during Tom Slyder's tenure as head coach to climb back from basketball oblivion; in fact, the current NPU senior class went 4-21, 1-13 as freshmen.

Now to keep it going. The first test certainly won't be an easy one, as NPU has to travel to #16 Illinois Wesleyan the day after tomorrow.

Fully deserved. Probably should be higher, really.

Gregory Sager

I have no issue with where NPU landed in this poll. I'm fine with the Vikes having to scratch and claw their way up the ladder.

One thing's for sure: Wednesday's game @ #16 Illinois Wesleyan and Saturday's home game against ORV Carroll will guarantee that the Vikings won't be able to rest upon their laurels.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell