Top 25 talk

[David Collinge]

Just to complicate matters, R-MC has a fairly big game tomorrow at 7pm against Wooster.  I suppose the poll will not take this game into account until the following week (Pat?).  I imagine that Macon would be something like a 10-12 point favorite at home in that game, so either a more handsome win or an upset loss could have a significant impact on the ordering of the top 10.  However, for this week's poll, the voters may take a bit of a wait-and-see attitude towards Macon.

[Pat Coleman]

That's right -- the poll is through Sunday.

[ScotsFan]

Wonder how far Stevens Point will drop after losing at #5 Whitewater in OT.  Not sure if Randolph-Macon's and Guilford's wins will vault them above Point.  The Pointers were 60 and 102 points ahead of RMC and Guilford.

Whitewater was 68 points behind St. Thomas.  It's possible, IMO, that they could actually leapfrog St. Thomas.

I guess it could be possible that Point would stay at #4 with RMC and Guilford gaining a lot of points on them.  Or, Point could drop to 6th behind those two.

If Point were to fall, my guess would be only below Macon.  I wouldn't think that a one loss Guilford team would also vault a one loss Stevens Point team with that one loss coming in OT to the then #5 team in the country.

As for Whitewater jumping UST, what have the Tommies done that would lead them to be leapfrogged by anyone?  Until UST loses, I don't think they should be leapfrogged by anyone.

The question I have wrt this week's poll is how far will JCU fall in this week's poll after losing twice in conference play last week?  IMO, they could very easily drop out of the top 10 altogether.  And combine that with the question of when will Wilmington crack the top 25?  The only loss for the Quakers this season was to DI Cleveland State.  They are 8-0 vs. D3 opponents and are currenly alone in first place in the OAC with a 2 game lead over pre-season conference favorite JCU after their triple OT thriller with JCU on Sat.

[Hugenerd]

There are some interesting things to see this week:

1. How far will John Carroll fall with losses to two unranked opponents (as ScotsFan pointed out above)?

2. Will Richard Stockton finally fall?  They lost for the third time against an unranked opponent this week.

2.  Will Augustana's ranking change at all.  They lost to the best team in d3 and a top 25 team in d1, it would be hard to justify dropping them at all or moving them up, for that matter.

3. Chapman loses to an unranked opponent at home, and they only have one win over a team with a winning record, 4-3 Elmhurst, who is probably the 5th or 6th best team in the CCIW.

4. DeSales loses for the third time and for the second time to an unranked team (they lost to top 10 RMC by 24 points).  Can their preseason top 10 ranking hold them in the top 25 any longer?

Anyway, I am very curious to see how the new rankings will look.  There could be a lot of movement in the top 10 (4 teams lost) and in the bottom part of the rankings as well (5 teams had losses).

[oldchap]

3. Chapman loses to an unranked opponent at home, and they only have one win over a team with a winning record, 4-3 Elmhurst, who is probably the 5th or 6th best team in the CCIW.

I fully expect Chapman to drop in the ranking. However, they barely lost to CMS by one point which could be considered a fluke, while beating Elmhurst by a comfortable margin of 15 points. Will pollsters go that far into their analysis?

They are currently on top of the Pool B ratings. Here are their latest statistics:

P   RNK   WP      OWP     OOWP     RPI    NAT   REG   OVR   Team
                           
B   001   0.889   0.571   0.587   .6548   020   8-1   8-1   Chapman

[ScotsFan]

There are some interesting things to see this week:

1. How far will John Carroll fall with losses to two unranked opponents (as ScotsFan pointed out above)?

2. Will Richard Stockton finally fall?  They lost for the third time against an unranked opponent this week.

2.  Will Augustana's ranking change at all.  They lost to the best team in d3 and a top 25 team in d1, it would be hard to justify dropping them at all or moving them up, for that matter.

3. Chapman loses to an unranked opponent at home, and they only have one win over a team with a winning record, 4-3 Elmhurst, who is probably the 5th or 6th best team in the CCIW.

4. DeSales loses for the third time and for the second time to an unranked team (they lost to top 10 RMC by 24 points).  Can their preseason top 10 ranking hold them in the top 25 any longer?

Anyway, I am very curious to see how the new rankings will look.  There could be a lot of movement in the top 10 (4 teams lost) and in the bottom part of the rankings as well (5 teams had losses).

I highlighted 2 points I wanted to comment on.  First, Augey did play some impressive competition last week, but the fact of the matter is that they didn't just lose to WashU.  They got beaten fairly convincingly.  That margin of defeat should be enough to move the Vikings down a peg or two.

And wrt Chapman, I definitely think they are a bit over-rated and should be dropped down at least a few spots for taking their first loss of the season.  As hungered stated, Chapman only has one win over a team with a winning record!  Hardly an impressive body of work if you ask me.  Are you going to tell me that Chapman's 8-1 record is decidedly better than Wilmington's 8-1 record?  Especially when you consider that Chapman's best win is over an Elmhurst team that is one game over .500, meanwhile, Wilmington has a win over the previously #2 team in the country!

[Greek Tragedy]

As for Whitewater jumping UST, what have the Tommies done that would lead them to be leapfrogged by anyone?  Until UST loses, I don't think they should be leapfrogged by anyone.

It's not what the Tommies have done that they would be leapfrogged, it's what others have done.  I'm not saying Whitewater SHOULD leapfrog St.Thomas, I'm just saying that I wouldn't be surprised if the Warhawks did. 

Whitewater beat a previously undefeated higher ranked team, while St. Thomas beat Augsburg (though unbeaten), a team not on the Top 25 radar.  I would think Whitewater's win would pull more weight. 

[oldchap]

And wrt Chapman, I definitely think they are a bit over-rated and should be dropped down at least a few spots for taking their first loss of the season.  As hungered stated, Chapman only has one win over a team with a winning record!  Hardly an impressive body of work if you ask me.  Are you going to tell me that Chapman's 8-1 record is decidedly better than Wilmington's 8-1 record?  Especially when you consider that Chapman's best win is over an Elmhurst team that is one game over .500, meanwhile, Wilmington has a win over the previously #2 team in the country!

While I don't dispute that at #12, Chapman is probably overrated, I would like to point to the fact that looking at the raw record of each team is a bit misleading, especially prior to conference play. Several of Chapman's opponents have played against non D3 teams, some of which they are fully expected to lose against (i.e. DI, DII or NAIA div. I). For instance, La Verne's record of 1-6  contains 4 losses against DI and DII teams. If you look at the opponents "in region" records, then Chapman looks a lot better.

[ScotsFan]

As for Whitewater jumping UST, what have the Tommies done that would lead them to be leapfrogged by anyone?  Until UST loses, I don't think they should be leapfrogged by anyone.

It's not what the Tommies have done that they would be leapfrogged, it's what others have done.  I'm not saying Whitewater SHOULD leapfrog St.Thomas, I'm just saying that I wouldn't be surprised if the Warhawks did. 

Whitewater beat a previously undefeated higher ranked team, while St. Thomas beat Augsburg (though unbeaten), a team not on the Top 25 radar.  I would think Whitewater's win would pull more weight. 

While I agree that Whitewater's win pulls more weight, I still don't think it warrants the Warhawks jumping STU in the polls.  And it's not like STU is without any impressive wins on their resume this season.  Don't forget their 31 point win over then #9 and current #23 over my beloved Scots at Wooster no less in the opening weekend of the season. 

[Hugenerd]

Speaking of Wooster, they have had a really tough schedule to begin the season, but they dont have any wins over any teams with winning records either (they are 0-3 against teams that currently have winning records).  I guess they have another shot today at Randolph-Macon, but they are going to need to win some of thesematchups against winning teams if they want to cement themselves up in the rankings.

[ScotsFan]

Speaking of Wooster, they have had a really tough schedule to begin the season, but they dont have any wins over any teams with winning records either (they are 0-3 against teams that currently have winning records).  I guess they have another shot today at Randolph-Macon, but they are going to need to win some of thesematchups against winning teams if they want to cement themselves up in the rankings.

Oh.  You don't have to remind me of that stat!    Wooster has been clinging by a thread to their ranking from the beginning of the season and that thread may get snapped depending on how they fare against Macon tonight.  While it's nice to stay in the top 10, I'm more concerned about the psyche of the team at this point.  While putting together a tough schedule is always good in getting your team battle tested come post season time, all of this losing starts to get into your heads after a while and I'm afraid that if Wooster loses to yet another ranked opponent, what could that do to their confidence?  I think a win for Wooster tonight is far more important from a psychological standpoint than it is for Wooster staying in the top 25!

Also, to be fair, 2 of Wooster's wins are vs. teams that are at least .500 as CMU and ONU both have even records.  And also, of the 3 teams Wooster has faced with winning records, one is currently #2 until the new poll comes out and one is #3 in the D3hoops poll.  Of course #2 JCU is sure to drop, but #3 STU will probably move up to #2 when the new poll comes out.  And now, the 4th team Wooster has faced this year with a winning record comes tonight vs. current #6 R-MC.  And, as if to pile on, Wooster faces Wabash this Sunday and if they beat the Lil Giants, they too would not have a winning record.  And then, Wooster's next likely opponent with a winning record would be none other than the #1 team in the country and the 2-time defending national champions making 4 of Wooster's 5 opponents with winning records having been ranked in the top 6 at one point in the season!  It sure would be nice if the Scots could just face some teams with winning records that aren't ranked in the top 10!   

[Moser]

There are some interesting things to see this week:

1. How far will John Carroll fall with losses to two unranked opponents (as ScotsFan pointed out above)?

2. Will Richard Stockton finally fall?  They lost for the third time against an unranked opponent this week.

2.  Will Augustana's ranking change at all.  They lost to the best team in d3 and a top 25 team in d1, it would be hard to justify dropping them at all or moving them up, for that matter.

3. Chapman loses to an unranked opponent at home, and they only have one win over a team with a winning record, 4-3 Elmhurst, who is probably the 5th or 6th best team in the CCIW.

4. DeSales loses for the third time and for the second time to an unranked team (they lost to top 10 RMC by 24 points).  Can their preseason top 10 ranking hold them in the top 25 any longer?

Anyway, I am very curious to see how the new rankings will look.  There could be a lot of movement in the top 10 (4 teams lost) and in the bottom part of the rankings as well (5 teams had losses).

Also, what happens to Wheaton's ranking? Do they stay the same, rise, or fall based on their near-upset of Wash U on the road?

[Hugenerd]

There are some interesting things to see this week:

1. How far will John Carroll fall with losses to two unranked opponents (as ScotsFan pointed out above)?

2. Will Richard Stockton finally fall?  They lost for the third time against an unranked opponent this week.

2.  Will Augustana's ranking change at all.  They lost to the best team in d3 and a top 25 team in d1, it would be hard to justify dropping them at all or moving them up, for that matter.

3. Chapman loses to an unranked opponent at home, and they only have one win over a team with a winning record, 4-3 Elmhurst, who is probably the 5th or 6th best team in the CCIW.

4. DeSales loses for the third time and for the second time to an unranked team (they lost to top 10 RMC by 24 points).  Can their preseason top 10 ranking hold them in the top 25 any longer?

Anyway, I am very curious to see how the new rankings will look.  There could be a lot of movement in the top 10 (4 teams lost) and in the bottom part of the rankings as well (5 teams had losses).

Also, what happens to Wheaton's ranking? Do they stay the same, rise, or fall based on their near-upset of Wash U on the road?

I'd be surprised if they move up due to a near upset.  Teams dont seem to be moved down due to near losses, so I doubt that it would work inversely as well.  Then again you never know, CCIW supporters may look at it that way.

[Greek Tragedy]

I don't think St. Thomas' opening weekend win over Wooster will have much bearing on this week's poll since its based largely on last week's results.

[Hugenerd]

I don't think St. Thomas' opening weekend win over Wooster will have much bearing on this week's poll since its based largely on last week's results.

That is true, but I think it would be wise for voters to look back a few weeks to make sure there rankings are consistent with previous results. In a young season, some teams can be overlooked in the rankings early on. For example, there was no reason VWU should have been ranked ahead of Eastern Mennonite last week, but they were because voters seemed to ignores VWU's loss at home to EMU 10 days prior and only looked at VWU's upset of Guilford when submitting their votes (Eastern Mennonite was undefeated at the tme).