Top 25 talk

[Greek Tragedy]

Polls are week to week, for the most part.  The reason Whitewater is ahead of Point in the most recent poll is mostly based on the fact that they beat Stevens Point in Whitewater in overtime when Point was ranked ahead of them at the time.  Since then, Whitewater lost to an unranked opponent while Point beat destroyed the #2 team in the nation in St. Thomas.  Honestly, I don't see how you don't put Point ahead of Whitewater despite the fact the Warhawks beat Point three weeks ago.  Sometimes you can compare common opponents as well.  Point beat Whitworth on a neutral court by a 22 when they were up by 37.  So, if you take into account that Whitewater did beat Point head to head at home in overtime, you have to take into account that Point beat Whitworth by 22, while Whitewater lost to them.

[John Gleich]

New poll out

#1 Randolph Macon (12)  597
#2 Stevens Point (9)  587
#3 Wash U (4)  577

Close.  I can't remember one that had 1st and 3rd separated by just 20 points, but I'm also not much of a top 25 historian.

#4 Whitewater 539
#5 St. Thomas 518
#6 Guilford  510

Or, for that matter, 1st and 4th separated by 58, 1st and 5th separated by 79, or 1st and 6th separated by 87.  Wow!

What I also find interesting is that the margin between RMC and UWSP remained the same from last week to this week...  10 points, which means they each gained the same number of points, 60!

[nescac1]

A few thoughts ...

after having seen RMC beat Williams (in a game Williams really fell apart down the stretch, but controlled for 3/4 of the game), I do think they are a very legit top-five or at worst top-ten team, but while they deserve the top ranking at this point based on results to date, I don't think they will hold onto it for that long.  They play well as a team, are very tough defensively, and are very well balanced, but they lack the superstar top players like some of the other top five squads.  Given how tough their conference appears to be this year, I imagine they will suffer a few losses fairly soon.  Their junior class is, however, incredibly deep and complement each other perfectly (one shooter, one athletic penetrator, one big guy who can shoot, one glue guy, two long true centers who are athletic enough), add in a solid sophomore point guard, and as those guys continue to grow together, I'd imagine RMC would have a good shot at pre-season number one next year.  Then again, given that Wash U. hasn't been as dominant as expected, this may be a season where there is no one or two dominant teams (unlike the last 7-8 years at least) and a squad like RMC, which is sort of a D-3 version of the recent Detroit Pistons champion with its depth, versatility, balance and D, could go very far.  Probably any of the top ten could beat anyone else in that group on any given night ...

New England ratings look pretty good EXCEPT for Brandeis (I don't see them beating anyone else in the top ten the way they have played, so they'd be the exception).  Way, way, way too high.  They have played one good team and they lost that game, and even that loss doesn't look so great now that UMD appears to be only mediocre.  And the bad teams they've played they've BARELY beaten in many cases (like Curry last night).  Compare to Amherst and Williams, both below them, also with one loss each, who have blown out the same types of teams repeatedly.  Brandeis has only seven guys who contribute at all, if one get injured or gets in foul trouble, they are in BIG trouble.  Coasting on past reputation not this year's roster or results (and really, they were only OK last year and then graduated their top two scorers, plus lost several potential contributors who transferred out or quit).  I'd say New England rankings right now should be Midd, then Amherst/Williams/MIT closely bunched (MIT essentially displacing Brandeis) right around the 10 mark, then Western Conn, then MAYBE Brandeis or WPI at the very edge of the top 25.  How can Brandeis be ranked above Williams or MIT when all have one loss, Williams and MIT have more wins, and Brandeis' loss came to a team outside the top 25 while MIT and Williams lost to Harvard and by five on the road to the number one team in the country, respectively? 

[Pat Coleman]

I've heard you don't like Brandeis.

[nescac1]

I realize I did this spiel once before, I just can't believe they keep rising in the poll despite a not-terribly-impressive body of work to date (I had similar thoughts on Bridgewater State's inflated pre-season ranking, but now they are no longer ranked, so it's not an issue).  I actually have nothing against Brandeis in particular, just offering a different perspective.  I think the Brandeis teams of two-three years ago were absolutely loaded, and deserved all the accolades they received ...

[Hugenerd]

I would have to agree that Brandeis is vulnerable this season.  They really only have a 7 man rotation (maybe 8, an 8th guy usually plays about 5 minutes versus good competition, obviously more in blowouts).  If one player has an off night, especially a ball-handling guard, they really have no backups outside of their starting lineup (the two subs that play big minutes are 6-5 and 6-6 forwards).  If you have a guard who can post up and get one of Brandeis' guards into foul trouble, they will either have to play someone they would prefer not to or change their defense.  For example, in their only loss this season against UMD, their point guard, Andre Roberson, was off and they had no one to bring in to provide a boost and lost despite 38 points from Kenny Small.  They have also been playing close with some bad teams, and you cant make the argument that they are young and still figuring it out.  They have 4 seniors and 1 junior in their primary 7 man rotation (the 8th guy who plays a few minutes is also a senior).  If they want to win anytime in the near future, it is going to have to be this year, but they are still vulnerable this year in my opinion.  I honestly dont think they can beat a very deep team likely Amherst or Williams (I havent seen Middlebury, so I cant comment there).  Luckily, we will soon find out if Brandeis is a legit top 10 team, they have their final two out-of-conference games coming up against NESCAC teams (Bates next week and Amherst in a month) and they start their UAA play this weekend (NYU (8-2), who beat a good Lebanon Valley team recently, Lebanon Valley beat 13th ranked F&M earlier in the year), including a matchup with #3 WashU a week from Friday.

[ScotsFan]

New England ratings look pretty good EXCEPT for Brandeis (I don't see them beating anyone else in the top ten the way they have played, so they'd be the exception).  Way, way, way too high.  They have played one good team and they lost that game, and even that loss doesn't look so great now that UMD appears to be only mediocre.  And the bad teams they've played they've BARELY beaten in many cases (like Curry last night).  Compare to Amherst and Williams, both below them, also with one loss each, who have blown out the same types of teams repeatedly.  Brandeis has only seven guys who contribute at all, if one get injured or gets in foul trouble, they are in BIG trouble.  Coasting on past reputation not this year's roster or results (and really, they were only OK last year and then graduated their top two scorers, plus lost several potential contributors who transferred out or quit).  I'd say New England rankings right now should be Midd, then Amherst/Williams/MIT closely bunched (MIT essentially displacing Brandeis) right around the 10 mark, then Western Conn, then MAYBE Brandeis or WPI at the very edge of the top 25.  How can Brandeis be ranked above Williams or MIT when all have one loss, Williams and MIT have more wins, and Brandeis' loss came to a team outside the top 25 while MIT and Williams lost to Harvard and by five on the road to the number one team in the country, respectively? 

Couldn't one make the same argument about Middlebury?  Have they even played one good team?  The combined record of DIII opponents that Middlebury has faced is an abysmal 29-42!  And only 2 of the 8 DIII teams they have faced have a winning record.  RPI is 6-2 and Castleton St. is 5-4.  Not exactly a convincing body of evidence if you ask me...

[Pat Coleman]

I agree -- I'm far more concerned about Middlebury's ranking than Brandeis'.

[nescac1]

Midd may be a bit overranked, but I think they are far more worthy of their ranking than Brandeis.  First, they are coming off a great NESCAC championship year.  Second, although like Brandeis they lost some star players, unlike Brandeis they added several strong frosh who are already making a huge impact, in addition to a star sophomore who has made the leap.  Midd is MUCH bigger and MUCH deeper (a legit 10 deep) than Brandeis.  Third, Midd had generally had more impressive results against its (admittedly weak) schedule than Brandeis has had against its equally weak schedule (Brandeis has three wins by five or less, Midd hasn't really been challenged, and all but one win has been double digits).  Fourth and most importantly, Brandeis has lost (and lost convincingly to a team that is not currently ranked and is clearly not as good as expected), Middlebury has not.  All of that being said, Midd should be ranked WAY more than one spot above Brandeis.  Until Midd loses, I think it deserves a high ranking.  Do I think Midd has top ten talent?  Probably not this year, although maybe next year as the team is very young ... but hard to punish them when they haven't lost and are easily beating all opponents.  Midd plays its best opponent to date tonight. If they win that game, I don't see them losing for a LONG time, as the schedule is very back-loaded with a tough five game stretch starting January 30.  Midd only has one tough road game all year, vs. Amherst late in the season.  I could easily see them losing two games or less when all is said and done.  And yes, the schedule definitely helps, but how can a NESCAC team with a strong recent history that is undefeated not be ranked highly at this juncture?

[magicman]

 I agree with nescac1 and hugenerd concerning the Middlebury-Brandeis debate. Middlebury just seems a lot deeper and with the addition of the 2 freshmen who are both making big contributions, I think they are the team to beat in the NESCAC.
Both freshmen have been starters for most of the season. Nolan Thompson is a 6'3" guard who has started every game and averages 9.8 ppg. He's shooting 48% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc and 87.5% from the line. The other frosh, Jake Wolfin is a 6'2" guard who started the 1st 7 games but now that regular point guard 6'4" Tim Edwards(9.0ppg, 6.0rpg, 4.0apg)  is back (he missed 6 games) Wolfin comes in off the bench. He is the 2nd leading scorer on the team averaging 11.6 ppg and is shooting 45% from the field, 44% (24x54) from 3 pt land and 87.5% from the stripe. The Panthers starting lineup has gotten bigger the past 2 games as 6'10" Andrew Locke, (7.7ppg, 4.9rpg) last years starting center was coming in off the bench but 6'5" forward Jamal Davis, who started the 1st 7 games is now the 1st big man off the bench. Last year's 6th man, 6'8" Soph forward Ryan Sharry, is this year's leading scorer averaging 13.8 pg and 8.2 rpg. Sharry is shooting a super 59.8% from the field, 50% on his 3 point attempts (6x12) and 87% from the line. The 5th starter is 6'4" junior forward Ryan Wholey and he averages10.0ppg, 5.0rpg and is shooting 91.3% (21x23). from the free throw line. Davis leads 4 other returning lettermen who all average double digit minutes off the bench. This team is big, deep, can shoot from the field and from the line and has 4 guys shooting 3's at better than 40%. They can hurt you in a lot of ways.

I know they haven't played a lot of teams with winning records but, as others have stated they won convincingly. Tonight's game against Plattsburgh State should be a good game. The only common opponent these teams have is St. Lawrence. Plattsburgh hosted the Saints on 12-1 and won 90-86, while the Panthers hosted the Saints on 12-3 and won 79-57. Both St Lawrence and Hamilton, despite their current records are decent teams and I think will end up with winning records for the season.

I plan on attending tonight's game in Middlebury and hope to see a repeat of the the past 2 meetings when Plattsburgh won 78-74 in Middlebury 2 years ago and last year when the Panthers won 68-64 in Plattsburgh. Cardinals are coming off a 31 day layoff and the Panthers warmed up for this game with a weekend sweep of Liberty League teams. (Actually have won their last 4 games against LL teams)  I'm guessing the Panthers win the rubber match tonight 74-68. But I hope I'm wrong and that score is reversed. 

[ScotsFan]

Midd may be a bit overranked, but I think they are far more worthy of their ranking than Brandeis.  First, they are coming off a great NESCAC championship year.  Second, although like Brandeis they lost some star players, unlike Brandeis they added several strong frosh who are already making a huge impact, in addition to a star sophomore who has made the leap.  Midd is MUCH bigger and MUCH deeper (a legit 10 deep) than Brandeis.  Third, Midd had generally had more impressive results against its (admittedly weak) schedule than Brandeis has had against its equally weak schedule (Brandeis has three wins by five or less, Midd hasn't really been challenged, and all but one win has been double digits).  Fourth and most importantly, Brandeis has lost (and lost convincingly to a team that is not currently ranked and is clearly not as good as expected), Middlebury has not.  All of that being said, Midd should be ranked WAY more than one spot above Brandeis.  Until Midd loses, I think it deserves a high ranking.  Do I think Midd has top ten talent?  Probably not this year, although maybe next year as the team is very young ... but hard to punish them when they haven't lost and are easily beating all opponents.  Midd plays its best opponent to date tonight. If they win that game, I don't see them losing for a LONG time, as the schedule is very back-loaded with a tough five game stretch starting January 30.  Midd only has one tough road game all year, vs. Amherst late in the season.  I could easily see them losing two games or less when all is said and done.  And yes, the schedule definitely helps, but how can a NESCAC team with a strong recent history that is undefeated not be ranked highly at this juncture?

I'm not trying to argue that Brandeis deserves their lofty ranking.  Personally, I think they are both overrated.  My point was, that you are acting as if it is a crime that Brandeis is so highly ranked when they haven't played anyone and all's I'm saying the same could easily be said about Middlebury!  I could care less how convingly Middlebury is beating people.  When the combined record of your opponents is 13 games under .500, I would hope that would be the case!

At least Brandeis will have the opportunity to at least legitimize their ranking once UAA play starts.  The same can't be said for Middlebury for almost a month at least...  

[Hugenerd]

Midd may be a bit overranked, but I think they are far more worthy of their ranking than Brandeis.  First, they are coming off a great NESCAC championship year.  Second, although like Brandeis they lost some star players, unlike Brandeis they added several strong frosh who are already making a huge impact, in addition to a star sophomore who has made the leap.  Midd is MUCH bigger and MUCH deeper (a legit 10 deep) than Brandeis.  Third, Midd had generally had more impressive results against its (admittedly weak) schedule than Brandeis has had against its equally weak schedule (Brandeis has three wins by five or less, Midd hasn't really been challenged, and all but one win has been double digits).  Fourth and most importantly, Brandeis has lost (and lost convincingly to a team that is not currently ranked and is clearly not as good as expected), Middlebury has not.  All of that being said, Midd should be ranked WAY more than one spot above Brandeis.  Until Midd loses, I think it deserves a high ranking.  Do I think Midd has top ten talent?  Probably not this year, although maybe next year as the team is very young ... but hard to punish them when they haven't lost and are easily beating all opponents.  Midd plays its best opponent to date tonight. If they win that game, I don't see them losing for a LONG time, as the schedule is very back-loaded with a tough five game stretch starting January 30.  Midd only has one tough road game all year, vs. Amherst late in the season.  I could easily see them losing two games or less when all is said and done.  And yes, the schedule definitely helps, but how can a NESCAC team with a strong recent history that is undefeated not be ranked highly at this juncture?

I'm not trying to argue that Brandeis deserves their lofty ranking.  Personally, I think they are both overrated.  My point was, that you are acting as if it is a crime that Brandeis is so highly ranked when they haven't played anyone and all's I'm saying the same could easily be said about Middlebury!  I could care less how convingly Middlebury is beating people.  When the combined record of your opponents is 13 games under .500, I would hope that would be the case!

At least Brandeis will have the opportunity to at least legitimize their ranking once UAA play starts.  The same can't be said for Middlebury for almost a month at least...  

Actually, Brandeis did play one team that was ranked at the time (UMD) and they lost.  Since that point, UMD has obviously lost some games, but that is really the only time Brandeis has played a quality deep team.   At least in the case of Middlebury, you can still argue that they have not lost so they well may be a top 10 team, we just dont know yet.  With Brandeis, they have already shown some weaknesses and I think they will lose 5+ games in the UAA this year as teams learn those weaknesses and exploit them.

[ScotsFan]

With Brandeis, they have already shown some weaknesses and I think they will lose 5+ games in the UAA this year as teams learn those weaknesses and exploit them.

I don't dispute this at all.  As a matter of fact, I agree.  That is why I posted above that I felt BOTH Brandeis and Middlebury are overrated.  The only difference is, Brandeis will either prove me wrong by winning against some quality UAA foes, or they will prove me right by losing to some quality UAA foes.  Middlebury, on the other hand will continue to feast on the weaker NESCAC opponents for another month or so before they have the opportunity to prove me wrong in my thoughts of them being overrated.

The bottom line is, at this point, neither team has done anything to make me sit back and think, yeah, they're a proven top 10 team.  But that's just me...

[Gregory Sager]

Two questions I'm throwing out here for discussion:

1. Does this ranking prove that there is a rift within the body of d3hoops.com voters with regard to methodology? In other words, are there voters who hold to Pat's and Bob's thesis that the top team should be the best team:

The question to me is always a very simple one. The answer may not always be, however.

Question: Who is the best team in the country?

That's where my No. 1 vote goes. It doesn't necessarily have a bearing on who was No. 1 last week or who has the best record. Can the best team in the country lose a game? Absolutely. There haven't been very many unbeaten teams in Division III men's basketball, to be sure.

I agree.  For me, it's not about automatically assessing a "penalty" for a loss - it's about trying to determine who the best team is.

... and voters who view the poll more as a ranking (i.e., a sliding scale of W-L records with strength of schedule factored in)? Or are there really 21 voters who don't think that Washington (MO) is still the best team in the country?

2. No comments have been posted on this yet, but is this poll a stamp of confirmation upon the ODAC as a fully-fledged power conference? The ODAC is the only league in D3 that has four teams in the current poll: #1 Randy Mac, #6 Guilford, #12 Virginia Wesleyan, and #24 Eastern Mennonite. Because it's a big league in terms of membership (11 teams), it's possible that the ODAC will be less vulnerable to cannibalization than smaller leagues and can thus retain four teams in the Top 25 throughout January and February.

[Pat Coleman]

I don't think that it's any different than usual. The voter pool has always had a mixture of both schools of thought, as far back as I can remember at least.