Top 25 talk

[Hugenerd]

That is interesting to know. Thanks Pat.

[Titan Q]

I wasnt trying to say that all 25 voters needed to debate each spot in the poll,

And I wasn't trying to say that either.

To follow up with the example of Wheaton, they currently have 259 points, meaning on average they are ranked 14.5 on ballots.  I am sure that this average represents some distribution, with some people voting them in the 20s, some in the teens, some in the top 10.  I am just curious, with their 3 losses, who would put them in the top 10 or close to that number, when there are teams, even from "power" conferences, with less losses and losses to stronger opponents?  That is all I am trying to say.  (Again, not trying to pick on Wheaton, but they just seem like the best example currently.)

I agree.  Wheaton was not on my Week 5 ballot at all...I think they are too high.  I know that many who are voting for Wheaton, though, have seen the Thunder play and think they belong.  I respect their opinion.

[Ralph Turner]

If that's true, then I don't really remember this methodological rift among the voters being a topic of discussion before. It seems to me to be an interesting subject for debate.

Wow - I can't let an opening like that go by!

The whole point of the Posters' Poll is debating WHY we rank the way we rank (sometimes vs. one another; often why we think college X is overrated or team Y is underrated on the real poll).

That's a good point, Chuck. While I know that Pat isn't thrilled about the Posters' Poll, Chuck is right that one of the benefits of it is that participants openly discuss their picks, both defending their own choices and challenging the choices of others. It really opens up the whole methodology question in a way that doesn't take place here in the official Top 25 room, since Pat, Bob, and D-Mac are the only voters who've publicly identified themselves.

I guess that I had not given any thought as to whether Pat Coleman liked the Posters' Poll.

I appreciate the fact the Mr Ypsi has done the poll all these many years.  I thought that we were providing some insight and discussion to some of the arguments that were being addressed in the minds of the voters in the official Top 25, all the while protecting the confidentiality of those voters.

Having run the South Region Fan (Football) Poll since Bridgewater Kid left for D-1, I know that the people who have contributed have tried to get the poll "right".  

They appreciate the honor to contribute, and take the job seriously.

I hope that a few more fans will participate in the Posters Poll.  It will help you understand D-III even better.  

[Hugenerd]

For all of you numbers people out there, Massey ratings are out:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb

or with the "BCS" formula:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&yr=&mid=6

Stevens Point and Whitewater are 1-2 in both rankings.

[Wydown Blvd.]

I am sure that this average represents some distribution, with some people voting them in the 20s, some in the teens, some in the top 10.  I am just curious, with their 3 losses, who would put them in the top 10 or close to that number

You shouldn't use just an average to assume a standard deviation (or a distribution). No one may have put Wheaton in the top 10 or close to that number.

[Pat Coleman]

I'm neutral toward the Posters Poll ... and the Belt ... if you guys have fun with it, go for it.

[oldchap]

For all of you numbers people out there, Massey ratings are out:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb

You stole my scoop!

I did a quick analysis to find the most blatant differences between the D3Hoops' Top 25 and Massey and here are my findings:

* Whitworth is #5, (36 in the Top 25)
* Brandeis is #64 (8 in the Top 25): this appears to be the biggest discrepancy
* Augsburg is #8 (not ranked): as big a difference as Brandeis, in reverse
* Franklin Marshall is #81 (13 in the Top 25): that's also a huge difference
* Texas-Dallas is #53 (22 in the Top 25)
* St John MN is #12 (not ranked)
* Gust. Adolphus is #19 (not ranked)
* Central is #20 (not ranked)

I think that Whitworth is going to quickly rise in future polls as someone suggested earlier and so will Augsburg. Brandeis is likely to sink and so will Franklin Marshall.

(Note: I used the regular rankings, not the BCS ones)

[Pat Coleman]

Massey ratings do seem to have this "proximity to the WIAC" thing going -- anyone connected to a WIAC team does really well.

[magicman]

I agree with nescac1 and hugenerd concerning the Middlebury-Brandeis debate. Middlebury just seems a lot deeper and with the addition of the 2 freshmen who are both making big contributions, I think they are the team to beat in the NESCAC.
Both freshmen have been starters for most of the season. Nolan Thompson is a 6'3" guard who has started every game and averages 9.8 ppg. He's shooting 48% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc and 87.5% from the line. The other frosh, Jake Wolfin is a 6'2" guard who started the 1st 7 games but now that regular point guard 6'4" Tim Edwards(9.0ppg, 6.0rpg, 4.0apg)  is back (he missed 6 games) Wolfin comes in off the bench. He is the 2nd leading scorer on the team averaging 11.6 ppg and is shooting 45% from the field, 44% (24x54) from 3 pt land and 87.5% from the stripe. The Panthers starting lineup has gotten bigger the past 2 games as 6'10" Andrew Locke, (7.7ppg, 4.9rpg) last years starting center was coming in off the bench but 6'5" forward Jamal Davis, who started the 1st 7 games is now the 1st big man off the bench. Last year's 6th man, 6'8" Soph forward Ryan Sharry, is this year's leading scorer averaging 13.8 pg and 8.2 rpg. Sharry is shooting a super 59.8% from the field, 50% on his 3 point attempts (6x12) and 87% from the line. The 5th starter is 6'4" junior forward Ryan Wholey and he averages10.0ppg, 5.0rpg and is shooting 91.3% (21x23). from the free throw line. Davis leads 4 other returning lettermen who all average double digit minutes off the bench. This team is big, deep, can shoot from the field and from the line and has 4 guys shooting 3's at better than 40%. They can hurt you in a lot of ways.

I know they haven't played a lot of teams with winning records but, as others have stated they won convincingly. Tonight's game against Plattsburgh State should be a good game. The only common opponent these teams have is St. Lawrence. Plattsburgh hosted the Saints on 12-1 and won 90-86, while the Panthers hosted the Saints on 12-3 and won 79-57. Both St Lawrence and Hamilton, despite their current records are decent teams and I think will end up with winning records for the season.

I plan on attending tonight's game in Middlebury and hope to see a repeat of the the past 2 meetings when Plattsburgh won 78-74 in Middlebury 2 years ago and last year when the Panthers won 68-64 in Plattsburgh. Cardinals are coming off a 31 day layoff and the Panthers warmed up for this game with a weekend sweep of Liberty League teams. (Actually have won their last 4 games against LL teams)  I'm guessing the Panthers win the rubber match tonight 74-68. But I hope I'm wrong and that score is reversed.  

Here's an update on my previous post as I just returned from the Middlebury-Plattsburgh State game. I didn't get the outcome I wanted as the Panthers won the game 81-75. I did get the margin of victory correct but the score was higher than I guessed due in part to the large number of fouls that were called in the 2nd half. Both of these teams are solid clubs and I'll go out on a limb and predict that Middlebury will win the NESCAC regular season crown and Plattsburgh will win the SUNYAC regular season title. They may get upset in their respective conference tournaments but both should be in the running for Pool C bids in their regions if that happens.

Not many teams in D3, if any, are going to field a bigger lineup than the one that the Panthers put on the floor. (See above post) These guys aren't just big, they're mobile, they play solid D, run the floor well, and help each other out on defense. Offensively they have a ton of weapons and rotate the ball to find the open shooter or find the mismatches inside. All of their bigs have decent post moves and a smooth shooting touch around the basket. The 3 guard rotation of Edwards, Thompson, and Wolfin scored 10, 15, and 7 pts in that order. They teamed up for 11 assists, 8 rebounds, 4 steals, and only turned the ball over 5 times in 86 minutes of play. This team reminds me of the Amherst team of 2 years ago that went to the Final Four. I saw that Lord Jeff team play twice when they defeated Richard Stockton in the round of 16 and Brandeis in the quarterfinals and there is a lot of similarity. Ryan Sharry had a great game tonight leading the Panthers with 18 points and 12 rebounds. This kid has potential All American written all over him. Should be fun to watch for the next 2 1/2 years. Small forward Ryan Wholey also had a solid game with 13 points and 6 boards. The really  big guy, Locke, scored 7 points, 6 rebounds, 5 blocks and 2 steals. The one negative about Locke is his poor free throw shooting. He's only averaging 36% from the line and tonight he continued that trend hitting just 3 of 8 attempts. The Panthers bench was a little shorter tonight due to the closeness of the game as they couldn't really put the Cardinals away. Normally Middlebury has had 10 guys get double minutes in playing time but tonight other than the above 6 only Jamal Davis had meaningful minutes, scoring 8 points and grabbing 4 boards before fouling out in 17 minutes of action.

Plattsburgh State starting lineup was Jr. F 6'6" Errol Daniyan, Sr. F 6'4" Danny Tangney, Jr. G 6'4" Chris Ruiz, Jr. G 6'2" Steve Thomas and So. G 5'10" Ketema Brooks. Despite the size differential the Cardinals were only outrebounded 42-39. The 1st half of this game started slowly as both teams missed a number of chances but the Panthers were up by 5, 11-6 after 6 1/2 minutes of play. The Cardinals came back with a 13-3 run to grab a 19-14 advantage with 6:57 to play in the half and maintained the lead until the 3:53 mark when the Panthers retook the lead and with the score 35-34 the Panthers hit a big 3 right before the buzzer to go into the break up 38-34.
Cardinals scored the 1st 4 pts of the 2nd period to tie it up at 38 but then went cold and couldn't buy a bucket. They went scoreless over the next 6:30 while the Panthers reeled off 16 unanswered points. Middlebury extended their advantage to the games largest lead of 17 points at 57-40 with 11:11 left to play. Plattsburgh went to its' trapping full court press and gradually climbed back into the game and twice cut it to 7 pts only to have the Panthers build it back to 11 with 4:07 remaining. One last surge got the Cardinals within 5 at 74-69 with 1:44 to go but a turnover on their next possession and a Middlebury bucket made it 76-69 and the Panthers hit 5 of 8 free throws down the stretch to close out the game.
Plattsburgh's Daniyan led all scorers with 23 pts and 12 rebounds(Last year against the Panthers he scored 29). Chris Ruiz was the only other Cardinal to hit double figures with 19 pts and 6 boards. Steve Thomas added 9 pts and 7 rebounds. Plattsburgh showed a lot of heart to get back into this game. They expended an enormous amount of energy with their trap press in the last quarter of play and came up a little short on a highly ranked team's home court. If there is such a thing as a good loss, this was one. In speaking with Plattsburgh's Coach Curle earlier he stated, "I know the ramifications of the Middlebury game can have an impact on the national scene, but also want the team to know the real season starts next weekend when we travel to Buffalo for the first of 16 remaining conference games."

Regarding earlier discussion about Middlebury's lofty ranking. I can't say it's too high or too low because I haven't seen any of the other ranked teams, but this is a good basketball team and based on the quality of highly ranked teams I've seen in past years I have to believe they deserve their place in the top 10. And Plattsburgh despite the loss tonight has shown they can play with a team at this level and perhaps should merit some consideration in the national poll.              
             

[KnightSlappy]

For all of you numbers people out there, Massey ratings are out:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb

or with the "BCS" formula:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&yr=&mid=6

Stevens Point and Whitewater are 1-2 in both rankings.

Does Massey count exhibition games in his rankings? He seems to be including Calvin's 11/10 exhibition with Ferris State.

[sac]

For all of you numbers people out there, Massey ratings are out:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb

or with the "BCS" formula:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&yr=&mid=6

Stevens Point and Whitewater are 1-2 in both rankings.

Does Massey count exhibition games in his rankings? He seems to be including Calvin's 11/10 exhibition with Ferris State.

Unfortunately yes, which makes most of the D3 ratings completely useless.  The game is clearly marked as an exhibition on Ferris State's website.

[Hugenerd]

I dont think Massey has the time to check all the d3 ratings closely, I am sure if you email him errors you find he will update them, he has been responsive in the past.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I think that Whitworth is going to quickly rise in future polls as someone suggested earlier and so will Augsburg. Brandeis is likely to sink and so will Franklin Marshall.

oldchap - I am assuming you are saying you expect Frankling & Marshall to sink in the Top 25... to be honest, they are fine where they are. I actually have them higher. They are a very well coached team which has certainly had a couple bumps in the road, but I believe will be able to make another fun to the Final Four. Could they suffer from a "sophomore slump" per se, sure... but I doubt it. We will have a better idea in a matter of a few weeks as they work through conference play... but to be honest, I don't see anyone in the CC that is strong enough to battle them for the conference title and I think they are set-up to have home-court advantage in the NCAA Tournament which is a major factor to success for them.

I am not sure if you have seen the team, but I have seen my fair share in the last 12 months and I feel very secure with their #13 ranking.

[Hugenerd]

I am sure that this average represents some distribution, with some people voting them in the 20s, some in the teens, some in the top 10.  I am just curious, with their 3 losses, who would put them in the top 10 or close to that number

You shouldn't use just an average to assume a standard deviation (or a distribution). No one may have put Wheaton in the top 10 or close to that number.

First of all, there is definitely some distribution, how wide that distribution is the question (like you said, standard deviation). Secondly, I knew that Titan Q had stated he had not ranked them at all, so I knew there was at least one pollster who had them out of the top 25 (meaning they got 259 points from 24 voters, or an averaging ranking of nearly exactly 14 from the other 24).  Given what Titan Q stated, I think it is a fair assumption that some other voters share his view, or a view close to his and have Wheaton ranked in the bottom 5 or 10 of the poll, if not out of the poll.  Since Wheaton is tied for the #13 ranking in the country (which is pretty close to 10 to begin with), some voters must have put them at rankings higher than that to offset those that had them unranked or lower in the rankings (i.e. Titan Q).  My statement was not complete conjecture, there is some direct and inferred data to support it.

[nescac1]

Hugenerd, you are really living up to your monicker on this thread.  Well done.

Last night's win over a very solid opponent should bolster Middlebury's top-ten credentials.  They still haven't played a ranked team and won't until at least January 30, but they seem to be legit.  And with three frosh in the rotation, several strong recruits already purportedly in the fold, and only one senior who gets playing time, Midd seems to have emerged alongside Amherst and Williams as a consistent NESCAC power (supplanting Trinity, which filled that role until its coach departed for Wesleyan -- another school which may itself emerge as a conference contender as early as next season).