Top 25 talk

[Hugenerd]

Another top 25 team in trouble:

Concordia Texas leads Mississippi College 49-38 at the half.

Concordia still leading, 63-56, under 10 minutes to play.

Concordia opening up a double digit lead, 74-64 with 4 to play.

Concordia now up 74-68 with under 2 to play.

FINAL: 81-72 Concordia.

2 undefeateds and top 10 teams go down tonight.

[Pat Coleman]

I do know that one extra result that fits within the data sample doesn't make most of the D-III ratings completely useless.

Um yes it would, how is that hard to understand........and its not just one error, its several. 

most of the D-III ratings completely useless.

It's this hyperbole that I'm disputing. How is it hard to understand that a couple results out of 5,500 or so D-III men's basketball games do not render most of the D-III ratings completely useless?

[magicman]

Middlebury 76   Colby-Sawyer 86

According to the newly released Massey ratings the defeat of Middlebury by Colby Sawyer Thursday night will be the biggset upset in D3 hoops so far this season. The current Massey ratings (games through Jan. 4th) show UW-Superior losing to Martin Luther(MN) as the #1 upset. The difference in their ranking was 505 places. Colby-Sawyer is ranked 523 places lower than Middlebury and will be listed as the #1 least likely result when the next update comes out.

Climbing into the D3hoops top 10 is getting to be like the SI cover jinx. Only #1 Randy-Macon and #21 Medaille left standing.

[Hugenerd]

It appears Mr. Massey has updated Plattsburgh's schedule to reflect the correction magicman pointed out. The York (ON) result is now designated as exhibition.

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6257&s=97288

[ScotsFan]

FINAL: 86-76 CSC

Middlebury picks up their first loss.  Big win for Colby Sawyer.

I guess we didn't have to wait a month after all to see whether or not Middlebury was a tad overrated thanks to Colby Sawyer!   

[nescac1]

That is no worse a loss than the one recently suffered by Wash U., ScotsFan.  Other than RMC, I believe every or just about every top ten team has a loss (either based on opponent, or score) that doesn't look so great ... any team can have a bad day, and Midd, while not a tremendous three point or foul shooting team to begin with, had a REALLY awful day on both fronts.  And CSC seems to play up to their opponents, this year.  Not to say that I thought, even before this loss, that Midd was the seventh most talented team in the country -- just that, based on their body of work to date, they were deserving of that ranking. 

[John Gleich]

That is no worse a loss than the one recently suffered by Wash U., ScotsFan.  Other than RMC, I believe every or just about every top ten team has a loss (either based on opponent, or score) that doesn't look so great ... any team can have a bad day, and Midd, while not a tremendous three point or foul shooting team to begin with, had a REALLY awful day on both fronts.  And CSC seems to play up to their opponents, this year.  Not to say that I thought, even before this loss, that Midd was the seventh most talented team in the country -- just that, based on their body of work to date, they were deserving of that ranking.  

I think the exception to that is Stevens Point.  Their loss was in overtime, at Whitewater.

Arguably, Whitewater's loss (to Whitworth in Spokane) really isn't a bad loss either.  Whitworth isn't in the top 25, but they should be.  They're sitting at #11 in the ORV category after a preseason #16 ranking.  They're 9-2 and fell from the rankings after the drubbing they took by Stevens Point which was worse than the 22 point final spread (UWSP was up 37 in the second half) and after the 1 point loss to Pomona-Pitzer.  The reports on the NWC board are that they've got a new rotation that is working quite well for them.  

They do have a couple of marquee wins... Whitewater and McKendree (who stormed back from a big deficit and had Wash U on the ropes at home and who is ranked #14 in NAIA-I, akin to a W over a top 10 D-III team).  I think they belong in the top 25, if not the top 20.  They appear to be the class of their league, and more than just a good record (against unknown teams or lesser foes in a top-heavy league) they have some quality wins to boot.


I know most coaches probably won't admit this... but getting that first loss can often times be a good thing.  There's added pressure about staying undefeated and teams almost play more tight and I don't want to say scared... but maybe afraid to lose?  I dunno if that makes sense, but it's tough enough playing the game without extra expectations (exterior or from yourself).

[KnightSlappy]

They do have a couple of marquee wins... Whitewater and McKendree (who stormed back from a big deficit and had Wash U on the ropes at home and who is ranked #14 in NAIA-II, akin to a W over a top 10 D-III team).  I think they belong in the top 25, if not the top 20.  They appear to be the class of their league, and more than just a good record (against unknown teams or lesser foes in a top-heavy league) they have some quality wins to boot.

I'm not sure that I agree that #14 NAIA II is top 10 DIII.

It seems that the two divisions are pretty even, and if anything, DIII is slightly better. I would say a #14 NAIA II would be akin to a top 20 or so DIII team, though it's nearly impossible to say where they would rank.

[Titan Q]

They do have a couple of marquee wins... Whitewater and McKendree (who stormed back from a big deficit and had Wash U on the ropes at home and who is ranked #14 in NAIA-II, akin to a W over a top 10 D-III team).  I think they belong in the top 25, if not the top 20.  They appear to be the class of their league, and more than just a good record (against unknown teams or lesser foes in a top-heavy league) they have some quality wins to boot.

I'm not sure that I agree that #14 NAIA II is top 10 DIII.

It seems that the two divisions are pretty even, and if anything, DIII is slightly better. I would say a #14 NAIA II would be akin to a top 20 or so DIII team, though it's nearly impossible to say where they would rank.

McKendree is NAIA I actually.  I'm pretty familiar with McKendree's personnel and I'm confident they'd be a Top 10 NCAA D3 team.

[KnightSlappy]

They do have a couple of marquee wins... Whitewater and McKendree (who stormed back from a big deficit and had Wash U on the ropes at home and who is ranked #14 in NAIA-II, akin to a W over a top 10 D-III team).  I think they belong in the top 25, if not the top 20.  They appear to be the class of their league, and more than just a good record (against unknown teams or lesser foes in a top-heavy league) they have some quality wins to boot.

I'm not sure that I agree that #14 NAIA II is top 10 DIII.

It seems that the two divisions are pretty even, and if anything, DIII is slightly better. I would say a #14 NAIA II would be akin to a top 20 or so DIII team, though it's nearly impossible to say where they would rank.

McKendree is NAIA I actually.  I'm pretty familiar with McKendree's personnel and I'm confident they'd be a Top 10 NCAA D3 team.

Well, bust my buttons. Why didn't you say so in the first place? That's a horse of a different color!

[ScotsFan]

That is no worse a loss than the one recently suffered by Wash U., ScotsFan.   Other than RMC, I believe every or just about every top ten team has a loss (either based on opponent, or score) that doesn't look so great ... any team can have a bad day, and Midd, while not a tremendous three point or foul shooting team to begin with, had a REALLY awful day on both fronts.  And CSC seems to play up to their opponents, this year.  Not to say that I thought, even before this loss, that Midd was the seventh most talented team in the country -- just that, based on their body of work to date, they were deserving of that ranking. 

Maybe not, but at least WashU has some pretty decent wins on their resume (IWU, Augey, Wheaton) to fall back on.  Middelbury on the other hand...  Not so much.

[John Gleich]

yada, yada... beat Whitewater and McKendree... who is ranked #14 in NAIA-I, akin to a W over a top 10 D-III team).

I'm not sure that I agree that #14 NAIA II is top 10 DIII.

It seems that the two divisions are pretty even, and if anything, DIII is slightly better. I would say a #14 NAIA II would be akin to a top 20 or so DIII team, though it's nearly impossible to say where they would rank.

McKendree is NAIA I actually.  I'm pretty familiar with McKendree's personnel and I'm confident they'd be a Top 10 NCAA D3 team.

Well, bust my buttons....

Sorry, I actually went to the NAIA page to check and just plain typed it wrong.  I meant NAIA-I.

Amazing how one little letter can change so much!

[Titan Q]

That is no worse a loss than the one recently suffered by Wash U., ScotsFan.  Other than RMC, I believe every or just about every top ten team has a loss (either based on opponent, or score) that doesn't look so great ... any team can have a bad day, and Midd, while not a tremendous three point or foul shooting team to begin with, had a REALLY awful day on both fronts.  And CSC seems to play up to their opponents, this year.  Not to say that I thought, even before this loss, that Midd was the seventh most talented team in the country -- just that, based on their body of work to date, they were deserving of that ranking.  

Just looking at how Massey has the teams, it does look like a "bigger upset" than the other Top 10 losses...

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb

With that game included, Middlebury is Massey #49...Colby-Sawyer is Massey #181.  (Heading into the game yesterday, the differential in rankings would have been much larger...I'm sure the result sent Middlebury tumbling and C-S way up.)


#2 Stevens Point is Massey #1...Whitewater is Massey #2 (at Whitewater, I don't even think an upset)

#3 Wash U is Massey #10...Translyvania is Massey #105 (definitely a big upset, but I suspect Transy is better than Colby-Sawyer)

#4 Whitewater is Massey #2...Whitworth is Massey #6 (Whitworth the most underrated team in D3hoops.com poll?)

#5 St. Thomas is Massey #3...Stevens Point is Massey #1 (an expected loss...margin shocking, but loss not)

#6 Guilford is Massey #7...Virginia Wesleyan is Massey #14 (at VWC, no biggie)

#8 Bradeis is Massey #64...Mass-Dartmouth is Massey #117 (an upset, but game was at Mass-D...Massey says Brandeis too high)

#9 Amherst is Massey #26...Elms is Massey #109 (definitely a big upset)

#10 Mississippi College is #36...Concorida-Austin is Massey #139 (definitely a big upset)


Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying Massey is the end-all, be-all.  It's just the only way to try to quantify stuff like this.

Also note, I am a firm believer that even great teams play terrible every now and then and lose.

[Pat Coleman]

With that game included, Middlebury is Massey #49...Colby-Sawyer is Massey #181.  (Heading into the game yesterday, the differential in rankings would have been much larger...I'm sure the result sent Middlebury tumbling and C-S way up.)

Indeed. It appears Middlebury was No. 16 and Colby-Sawyer was No. 232. The number in the first column, under "Ch," reflects the most recent change in ranking.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

They do have a couple of marquee wins... Whitewater and McKendree (who stormed back from a big deficit and had Wash U on the ropes at home and who is ranked #14 in NAIA-II, akin to a W over a top 10 D-III team).  I think they belong in the top 25, if not the top 20.  They appear to be the class of their league, and more than just a good record (against unknown teams or lesser foes in a top-heavy league) they have some quality wins to boot.

I'm not sure that I agree that #14 NAIA II is top 10 DIII.

It seems that the two divisions are pretty even, and if anything, DIII is slightly better. I would say a #14 NAIA II would be akin to a top 20 or so DIII team, though it's nearly impossible to say where they would rank.

I think this is generally true, the problem is teams in NAIA can jump from one division to the other with relative ease.  So while NAIA-II is, as a whole, slightly below D3, they could very well have a good number of very good teams.

The bottom line, we'll all be better off when the NAIA inevitably folds.