Top 25 talk

[nescac1]

I think Williams at this point is a legit number eight, but of course I'm biased.  They now have a very good win over Amherst.  They've blown out all the bad teams they've played.  Their only loss was a very close game, on the road, to the number one team, and if you ask RMC fans, I'm sure they'll tell you the two teams were basically even in terms of talent level, RMC just played a little tougher / more together down the stretch.  Yes, the schedule has been on the weak side (not totally the Ephs' fault as several usually solid programs like Salem State are having down years), but 12-1 is 12-1.   I wouldn't say that is a top-5 resume, but it is a very legit top-10 one.   I think the Ephs suffer because they were a bit underrated coming into the year -- yes, their record was pedestrian last year, but that was in the first season with a new coach who installed a totally new system that was difficult to learn quickly, without (until very late in the year) a true point guard running the team (now they have two top-flight point guards), and most importantly, with their star center missing most of the year due to injury.  Toss in one other current player who made a big leap (Whittington) and their talent level alone should have landed them in the top 20 pre-season.  Now, that being said, they still need to play with more consistency, especially on the defensive end, but the team is definitely coming together as the season progresses. 

I'd say Eastern Mennonite (way underranked as hugenerd has argued based on performance to date, they also can make a very credible argument for number eight, certainly if VWU is a sure top-seven team, then EM should be a sure top-ten at the very least) and MIT also deserve to round out a pretty solid top ten, with F&M, St. Norbert, Anderson and Wilmington the other potential top ten contenders.  That would be my top 14, personally.  Probably Medaille 15 because undefeated is undefeated ... then maybe Midd 16, where, I think, it would be hard to then argue they are overranked. 

Wash U. seems to be struggling a bit of late, which surprises me given how stacked they seem to be.  Hard to say that, over their last four games, they are playing like a top three team, but they get a pass due to their impressive start to the season, undeniable talent level, and most importantly, recent history. 

It seems like most (if not every) year since 2003, 1-2 teams have looked dominant through much of the year and ended up in the title game.  This year is pretty wide open, especially since most of the top six or so seem to be grouped from only two conferences, which will be a big disadvantage come tourney time.  Usually being in the south region is a plus come tourney time, but not this year, for sure.  Speaking of conferences, seems like a no-brainer that ODAC and WIAC are the top two this year, probably in that order (49-3 for the top four in ODAC, all of whom are or soon will be in the top ten? wow), but that is arguable.  Afterwards, once again, pretty wide open.  I think NESCAC has an argument for third based on the top five teams in the conference (38-9), but the bottom half has not been as improved as I would have though, and are right now dragging the league as a whole down.  Still, with CCIW and OAC a bit down from usual standards, and UAA top-heavy, hard to say who is number three right now ...

[Ralph Turner]

I don't think anyone argued that Brandeis was not overrated at No. 8.

Obviously some of your voters would have argued that!

Guilty as charged.  I let Brandeis get up to #8 on my Week 5 ballot.  See above though - it's a struggle for me after #7...I know there is a legit #8 for me, but have no idea who that is.

de facto "float-up" is a big component of teams getting ratings that they don't deserve.  Brandeis kept winning and teams above them kept losing in ugly fachions.

Rather than looking at the ordinal number that a certain number of votes will assign a team to ranking, the real value is looking at the vote total as to where it would land a team on the "Perfect Top 25".  Brandeis' 361 votes would be a strong "12th" on a perfect Top 25.  That would be a consensus of what 25 voters thought about Brandeis.

And, for every voter who reluctantly put Brandeis at #8, another voter put them at #15-16, and reluctantly penciled-in some other team at #8.

[Ralph Turner]

A stratified Top 25

Rating	Perfect Ranking	Teams with Votes
1	625	*
2	600	*
3	575	#1 RMC 597, #2 UWSP 587, #3 WUStL 577
4	550
5	525	#4 UWW 539
6	500	#5 Tommies 518, #6 Guilford 510
7	475	#7 M'bury 488
8	450	*
9	425	*
10	400	*
11	375	*
12	350	#8 'Deis 361, #9 Amherst 356
13	325	#10 MissColl 346, #11 Williams 333
14	300	#12 VWC  309
15	275	*
16	250	#13 Tie F&M, Wheaton IL 259
17	225	#15 MIT 236, #16 St Norbert 228
18	200	*
19	175	#17 Chapman 195, #18 Anderson 176
20	150	#19 Wilmingotn 172, #20 St Mary's MD 158
21	125	*
22	100	#21 Medaille 123, Tie #22 UT-Dallas, UW-Lacrosse 103, #24 EMennonite 102
23	75	#25 IWU 91
24	50	RV26 Wooster 59, RV27 WPI 53
25	25	RV28 RStockton 48, RV29T JCU & WConn 35, RV31 York PA 31, RV32 Augustana 27

[Ralph Turner]

Titan Q's comment about a solid Top 7 in the Top 25 was borne out by the numbers.

[Hugenerd]

So how do things change now that 5 teams ranked #7-#14 lost?  Middlebury was one of those consensus top 7 teams, what happens to them?

[Ralph Turner]

So how do things change now that 5 teams ranked #7-#14 lost?  Middlebury was one of those consensus top 7 teams, what happens to them?

I will let some Northeast Region fan explain the games in the NE.

A breakdown shows that:

#7 M'Bury lost an ugly game to CSC
#8 'Deis lost a conference road game.  Is that a rivalry game against NYU?
#9 Amherst lost a rivalry game on the road to Williams.  No surprise there
#10 Mississippi College lost two games on this 1000-mile road trip.  I thought that they would do well to go 1-1.  The CTX game was an upset.
#14 Wheaton IL lost a CCIW road game at Carthage.

I think that we have always had much parity in D-III.  We are now just more aware of it.   

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Middlebury was too high and I'm not even sure Brandeis should have been ranked at all.

Williams is the cream of the crop.  Amherst is pretty good.  MIT may be good (certainly better than expected), but we'll have to see how they hold up through conference play.

[Ralph Turner]

Middlebury was too high and I'm not even sure Brandeis should have been ranked at all.

Williams is the cream of the crop.  Amherst is pretty good.  MIT may be good (certainly better than expected), but we'll have to see how they hold up through conference play.

Okay, so we have another case of "East Coast Bias"!   

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared

Every score posted already (a new record?)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	597	Randolph-Macon	13-0	def. Bridgewater (Va.), 74-53; def. Hampden-Sydney, 69-68; def. Christopher Newport, 80-68
#2	587	UW-Stevens Point	13-1	def. UW-Oshkosh, 73-67; def. T#22 UW-La Crosse, 73-57
#3	577	Washington U.	11-1	def. Webster, 69-60; def. Chicago, 64-60
#4	539	UW-Whitewater	13-1	def. UW-River Falls, 70-57
#5	518	St. Thomas	10-1	def. Bethel, 61-50; def. Carleton, 60-51
#6	510	Guilford	12-1	def. Lynchburg, 89-82; def. Randolph, 78-42
#7	488	Middlebury	12-1	def. T#42 Plattsburgh State, 81-75; LOST to Colby-Sawyer, 76-86; def. Skidmore, 80-67; def. Lyndon State, 97-69
#8	361	Brandeis	8-2	def. Curry, 74-69; LOST at New York University, 50-62
#9	356	Amherst	8-2	def. Wesleyan, 81-72; LOST at #11 Williams, 69-72
#10	346	Mississippi College	10-2	def. Belhaven, 89-79; LOST at Concordia-Austin, 72-81; LOST at Mary Hardin-Baylor, 64-83
#11	333	Williams	12-1	def. Colby-Sawyer, 101-88; def. #9 Amherst, 72-69
#12	309	Virginia Wesleyan	13-1	def. Salisbury, 79-69; def. Randolph, 62-48; def. Washington and Lee, 69-64
T#13	259	Franklin and Marshall	10-2	def. Haverford, 58-44; def. Swarthmore, 75-51
T#13	259	Wheaton (Ill.)	9-4	LOST at #35 Carthage, 62-75; def. North Central (Ill.), 67-64
#15	236	MIT	13-1	def. Tufts, 71-59; def. Babson, 72-45
#16	228	St. Norbert	10-1	def. Beloit, 73-46; def. Ripon, 66-52
#17	195	Chapman	12-2	def. Caltech, 60-42
#18	176	Anderson	13-1	def. Franklin, 72-59; def. Transylvania, 91-72
#19	172	Wilmington	12-2	def. Ohio Northern, 73-62; def. Heidelberg, 79-66
#20	158	St. Mary's (Md.)	11-2	def. Wesley, 81-74
#21	123	Medaille	13-0	def. Frostburg State, 74-70
T#22	103	Texas-Dallas	10-3	def. Hardin-Simmons, 86-64; def. Texas Lutheran, 80-53; def. Schreiner, 79-64
T#22	103	UW-La Crosse	12-3	def. UW-Superior, 61-57; LOST at #2 UW-Stevens Point, 57-73
#24	102	Eastern Mennonite	11-1	def. Washington and Lee, 83-48; def. Roanoke, 119-91
#25	91	Illinois Wesleyan	11-2	def. North Central (Ill.), 84-79; def. #35 Carthage, 79-69

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	59	Wooster	9-4	def. Kenyon, 71-59
#27	53	Worcester Polytech	11-2	LOST at Wheaton (Mass.), 79-91; def. Trinity (Conn.), 90-75
#28	48	Richard Stockton	10-3	def. Rutgers-Camden, 68-56; def. Montclair State, 77-54
T#29	35	John Carroll	9-4	def. Otterbein, 88-64; def. Capital, 99-93 OT
T#29	35	Western Connecticut	9-2	def. Regis (Mass.), 92-73; LOST at Plymouth State, 73-78
#31	31	York (Pa.)	12-2	LOST at Marymount, 88-90 OT; def. Hood, 70-64
#32	27	Augustana	9-4	def. North Park, 77-63; def. Elmhurst, 64-50
#33	22	Hope	8-5	LOST at Calvin, 75-84; def. Alma, 87-74
#34	21	Elms	7-4	LOST to (n) Montclair State, 63-65; LOST at Union, 68-74; def. Newbury, 97-75
#35	18	Carthage	9-4	def. T#13 Wheaton (Ill.), 75-62; LOST at #25 Illinois Wesleyan, 69-79
#36	14	Whitworth	11-2	def. Pacific, 86-62; def. George Fox, 75-70
#37	9	DeSales	9-4	def. Widener, 92-87 2OT; def. Eastern, 66-56
T#38	7	Defiance	12-3	LOST at Transylvania, 56-58; def. Mount St. Joseph, 81-72
T#38	7	McMurry	8-4	LOST to LeTourneau, 71-72; def. East Texas Baptist, 71-64
#40	5	William Paterson	13-1	def. Manhattanville, 58-46; def. Kean, 56-41
#41	3	Rochester	9-2	LOST to Clarkson, 63-66 OT; def. Case Western Reserve, 76-60; def. Carnegie Mellon, 76-57
T#42	2	Plattsburgh State	7-4	LOST at #7 Middlebury, 75-81; LOST at Buffalo State, 87-90 OT; LOST at Fredonia State, 54-64
T#42	2	UW-Platteville	9-5	def. UW-Eau Claire, 74-67; LOST at UW-Stout, 81-87
#44	1	Cabrini	9-1	def. Keystone, 93-85; def. Lancaster Bible, 92-74

[Hugenerd]

I would not call NYU/Brandeis a rivalry, they have never really been good at the same time so there have been very few big time matchups between the two schools.  In the early days of the UAA, NYU was good and Brandeis was bad.  Then for a bunch of years both teams were pretty bad.  Recently, Brandeis has been good and NYU hasnt.  I think the only real "rivalry" in the UAA is Chicago and WashU, because both teams have been at the top of the conference so many times and they are travel partners so they play eachother in the last game each season (which usually has postseason implications).

NYU also has not had a much of a home court advantage this year.  Their only two losses have been at home to teams they probably shouldnt have lost to (Skidomore and Mt. St. Vincent).  I think this is just the second time Brandeis has played a solid team (the other being UMD) and they have not played well against either.

[magicman]

I would not call NYU/Brandeis a rivalry, they have never really been good at the same time so there have been very few big time matchups between the two schools.  In the early days of the UAA, NYU was good and Brandeis was bad.  Then for a bunch of years both teams were pretty bad.  Recently, Brandeis has been good and NYU hasnt.  I think the only real "rivalry" in the UAA is Chicago and WashU, because both teams have been at the top of the conference so many times and they are travel partners so they play eachother in the last game each season (which usually has postseason implications).

NYU also has not had a much of a home court advantage this year.  Their only two losses have been at home to teams they probably shouldnt have lost to (Skidomore and Mt. St. Vincent).  I think this is just the second time Brandeis has played a solid team (the other being UMD) and they have not played well against either.

Brandeis has only played 3 teams with a winning record and they lost to 2 of them (as you mentioned, UMD and NYU). The only other team was Clark and that was a narrow 51-47 win. Certainly not the stuff of a Top 25 team.

[Hugenerd]

I would not call NYU/Brandeis a rivalry, they have never really been good at the same time so there have been very few big time matchups between the two schools.  In the early days of the UAA, NYU was good and Brandeis was bad.  Then for a bunch of years both teams were pretty bad.  Recently, Brandeis has been good and NYU hasnt.  I think the only real "rivalry" in the UAA is Chicago and WashU, because both teams have been at the top of the conference so many times and they are travel partners so they play eachother in the last game each season (which usually has postseason implications).

NYU also has not had a much of a home court advantage this year.  Their only two losses have been at home to teams they probably shouldnt have lost to (Skidomore and Mt. St. Vincent).  I think this is just the second time Brandeis has played a solid team (the other being UMD) and they have not played well against either.

Brandeis has only played 3 teams with a winning record and they lost to 2 of them (as you mentioned, UMD and NYU). The only other team was Clark and that was a narrow 51-47 win. Certainly not the stuff of a Top 25 team.

You are right, I must have looked over that score.  Clark is a good team, they are in that group of teams right behind MIT and WPI in the NEWMAC, but certainly a win that would not get you top 25 consideration by itself.

[oldchap]

I think that Whitworth is going to quickly rise in future polls as someone suggested earlier and so will Augsburg. Brandeis is likely to sink and so will Franklin Marshall.

Remember what I said a few days ago, following my quick analysis of comparing the Top 25 with the Massey Ratings. Well, it looks like I may get at least one right....

In my opinion, and this is only an opinion of course, the Massey Ratings are a pretty good measure of a team strength, because it takes all games into consideration, including games against non-D3 teams. Because there is such a huge number being played in College basketball, the combined results can be statistically significant. Of course, following a team and watching it play night after night is the best measure, but no one in D3 does that because of the non existent TV coverage.

[Gregory Sager]

I don't think anyone argued that Brandeis was not overrated at No. 8.

Obviously some of your voters would have argued that!

Guilty as charged.  I let Brandeis get up to #8 on my Week 5 ballot.  See above though - it's a struggle for me after #7...I know there is a legit #8 for me, but have no idea who that is.

de facto "float-up" is a big component of teams getting ratings that they don't deserve.

One year a while back it was Gustavus Adolphus who was in the same position as Brandeis has been this year -- floating up to an undeservedly high rating based upon better teams rated above the Gusties losing and subsequently dropping below GAC in the next poll. I referred to it as "the St. Peter Principle" ... the deafening silence that ensued told me that either nobody got it or it was not as good of a pun as I thought.

[Hugenerd]

In the newest Massey ratings, Stevens Point is ranked a spot ahead of College of Charleston, who beat UNC last week. 

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb