Top 25 talk

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ralph, more ORV votes clearly indicates less consensus on top teams, but that number alone can't tell whether voters think there are 15 or 40 worthy teams.  If only 15, than the bottom ten are virtually random, and there would be lots of ORVs beyond whichever teams happened to take the last ten spots.  If 40, then again the bottom ten who actually make the poll would be virtually random, with lots of votes for the other 15.

(And, of course, saying the bottom ten is purely arbitrary for example purposes only.  I find on the posters' poll that generally there are 15-18 teams named on all ballots, and 3-4 more named on all but one or two, but I generally only have about 40% of the number of voters as the real poll.))

[Ralph Turner]

A stratified Top 25

Rating	Perfect Ranking	Teams with Votes
1	625	#1 UWSP
2	600
3	575	#2 Guilford 588
4	550
5	525	#3 RMC 534
6	500	#4 Wash StL 510 #5 Williams 508
7	475
8	450	#6 UW-Whitewater 457
9	425	#7 EMU 430, #8 MIT 428
10	400	#9 Tommies 418, #10 M'bury 412
11	375
12	350	#11 Anderson 373, #12 VWC 350
13	325	#13 St Norbert 326
14	300
15	275	#14 Chapman 280
16	250	#15 Brandeis 272
17	225	#16 St Mary's MD  248
18	200	#17 IWU 220
19	175	#18 Whitworth 190, #19 F&M 181
20	150	#20 Amherst 165
21	125
22	100	#21 Willy Pat 124, #22 UT-Dallas 122
23	75	#23 Miss College 92, #24 Medaille 84
24	50	#25 Wooster 50
25	25	RV 26 Cabrini 32

[EDIT] Thanks to magicman for proofreading the table.  +1!
I have added the vote total to St Mary's MD.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I am sure you have looked at these numbers, and I agree with your analysis, but the Massey and OWP/OOWP numbers show that MIT has had a tougher schedule than either Williams or Middlebury.

I've brought this up before, but maybe not for a few seasons now.  The NE region (I think) has an advantage in the OWP/OOWP category simply because of the density of d3 schools in the area.  It creates, in essence, an extra tier for these teams.  What OWP/OOWP represents for other regions might be similar to a formula in the NE including OOOWP.  If that makes any sense.

The top teams in the region can get inflated numbers by beating good teams in the NESCAC, NEWMAC, LEC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat top teams in the CCC, MASCAC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat the top teams in the weakest conferences.

I'm not saying its an unfair advantage, but a natural one unique to the east because of the sheer volume of teams.  Granted, I haven't done the math to back this up, but it seems to play itself out in practice every year.

[nwhoops1903]

Whitworth leading Whitman 47-13, 6:55 to go 1st half

[Hugenerd]

I am sure you have looked at these numbers, and I agree with your analysis, but the Massey and OWP/OOWP numbers show that MIT has had a tougher schedule than either Williams or Middlebury.

I've brought this up before, but maybe not for a few seasons now.  The NE region (I think) has an advantage in the OWP/OOWP category simply because of the density of d3 schools in the area.  It creates, in essence, an extra tier for these teams.  What OWP/OOWP represents for other regions might be similar to a formula in the NE including OOOWP.  If that makes any sense.

The top teams in the region can get inflated numbers by beating good teams in the NESCAC, NEWMAC, LEC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat top teams in the CCC, MASCAC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat the top teams in the weakest conferences.

I'm not saying its an unfair advantage, but a natural one unique to the east because of the sheer volume of teams.  Granted, I haven't done the math to back this up, but it seems to play itself out in practice every year.

I am not sure how this applies to my comment, as all 3 teams are in the NE so they are at the same  advantage.  I would contend that the NESCAC schools are at an even higher advantage (compared to MIT), because those schools play in the NESCAC that has a higher out-of-conference winning percentage as a whole.  Therefore, on average, the OWP and OOWP of all NESCAC schools will increase as they go through their conference slate while the increase will not be as dramatic for the NEWMAC schools.

[Hugenerd]

Wow, Williams beats New Paltz State (7-7) by only 2 points. New Paltz actually led until with12 seconds left, before Williams made some FTs at the end of the game.  Looking at the box score it looks like the game was really evenly matched.  Nothing that pops out at you that says, "Williams had a bad shooting night" or "they committed too many turnovers", etc.  Anyone who was there have any insight?

http://www.newpaltz.edu/athletics/mbasketball/statistics/mb11910.htm

[Ralph Turner]

I am sure you have looked at these numbers, and I agree with your analysis, but the Massey and OWP/OOWP numbers show that MIT has had a tougher schedule than either Williams or Middlebury.

I've brought this up before, but maybe not for a few seasons now.  The NE region (I think) has an advantage in the OWP/OOWP category simply because of the density of d3 schools in the area.  It creates, in essence, an extra tier for these teams.  What OWP/OOWP represents for other regions might be similar to a formula in the NE including OOOWP.  If that makes any sense.

The top teams in the region can get inflated numbers by beating good teams in the NESCAC, NEWMAC, LEC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat top teams in the CCC, MASCAC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat the top teams in the weakest conferences.

I'm not saying its an unfair advantage, but a natural one unique to the east because of the sheer volume of teams.  Granted, I haven't done the math to back this up, but it seems to play itself out in practice every year.

I am not sure how this applies to my comment, as all 3 teams are in the NE so they are at the same  advantage.  I would contend that the NESCAC schools are at an even higher advantage (compared to MIT), because those schools play in the NESCAC that has a higher out-of-conference winning percentage as a whole.  Therefore, on average, the OWP and OOWP of all NESCAC schools will increase as they go through their conference slate while the increase will not be as dramatic for the NEWMAC schools.

Yes, several of us have discussed that in previous seasons.

I took the NESCAC race back in the QOWI days (2004 or 2005 -- on the old message board) and substituted the last "n" scheduled games from the regular season that were played against non-NESCAC teams and put in the record and outcome of the NESCAC team which they had not played against a second time (Little 3, CBB games, etc.) to create a de facto double round robin NESCAC conference standings.  The impact on the QOWI was about the equivalent of 0.5 points on the QOWI 0-15 point system.

Instead of Amherst beating a (NESCAC) 0-9 Connecticut College that went 12-11 in-region,  the Camels put a 4-17 record into the QOWI of Amherst in the double round robin scenario.  Put those numbers up-and down the NESCAC into OOWP/OWP and the impact is huge.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I am sure you have looked at these numbers, and I agree with your analysis, but the Massey and OWP/OOWP numbers show that MIT has had a tougher schedule than either Williams or Middlebury.

I've brought this up before, but maybe not for a few seasons now.  The NE region (I think) has an advantage in the OWP/OOWP category simply because of the density of d3 schools in the area.  It creates, in essence, an extra tier for these teams.  What OWP/OOWP represents for other regions might be similar to a formula in the NE including OOOWP.  If that makes any sense.

The top teams in the region can get inflated numbers by beating good teams in the NESCAC, NEWMAC, LEC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat top teams in the CCC, MASCAC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat the top teams in the weakest conferences.

I'm not saying its an unfair advantage, but a natural one unique to the east because of the sheer volume of teams.  Granted, I haven't done the math to back this up, but it seems to play itself out in practice every year.

I am not sure how this applies to my comment, as all 3 teams are in the NE so they are at the same  advantage.  I would contend that the NESCAC schools are at an even higher advantage (compared to MIT), because those schools play in the NESCAC that has a higher out-of-conference winning percentage as a whole.  Therefore, on average, the OWP and OOWP of all NESCAC schools will increase as they go through their conference slate while the increase will not be as dramatic for the NEWMAC schools.

I was trying to say that, with NE region teams, you have to look at the actual schedule rather than the OWP/OOWP numbers.  Amherst hasn't played a better schedule than MIT, that's for sure; I just wouldn't use those particular numbers to prove it.

[John Gleich]

I am sure you have looked at these numbers, and I agree with your analysis, but the Massey and OWP/OOWP numbers show that MIT has had a tougher schedule than either Williams or Middlebury.

I've brought this up before, but maybe not for a few seasons now.  The NE region (I think) has an advantage in the OWP/OOWP category simply because of the density of d3 schools in the area.  It creates, in essence, an extra tier for these teams.  What OWP/OOWP represents for other regions might be similar to a formula in the NE including OOOWP.  If that makes any sense.

The top teams in the region can get inflated numbers by beating good teams in the NESCAC, NEWMAC, LEC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat top teams in the CCC, MASCAC, etc, who have inflated numbers because they beat the top teams in the weakest conferences.

I'm not saying its an unfair advantage, but a natural one unique to the east because of the sheer volume of teams.  Granted, I haven't done the math to back this up, but it seems to play itself out in practice every year.

I am not sure how this applies to my comment, as all 3 teams are in the NE so they are at the same  advantage.  I would contend that the NESCAC schools are at an even higher advantage (compared to MIT), because those schools play in the NESCAC that has a higher out-of-conference winning percentage as a whole.  Therefore, on average, the OWP and OOWP of all NESCAC schools will increase as they go through their conference slate while the increase will not be as dramatic for the NEWMAC schools.

I was trying to say that, with NE region teams, you have to look at the actual schedule rather than the OWP/OOWP numbers.  Amherst hasn't played a better schedule than MIT, that's for sure; I just wouldn't use those particular numbers to prove it.

The OWP/OOWP isn't perfect... but it is pretty good.

Look at MIT vs. Amherst (numbers borrowed from KnightSlappy on the Pool C board):

REG # WP OWP OOWP SOS RPI NAT Pool   REG OVR CONF Team NE 02 1.000    0.480    0.530    0.497    0.6224 017 A C 14-0 15-1 NEWMAC MIT NE 20 .7500    0.4467    0.5299 0.474 0.5433    119 C 078 9-3 10-3 NESCAC Amherst The numbers do work out in MIT's favor.  It sounds like you're saying that MIT should be considerably higher than Amherst... What rubric would you use to prove that, other than the tools we have like the numbers above?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It sounds like you're saying that MIT should be considerably higher than Amherst...

Not at all.  Outside of the game against Williams, they are remarkably similar.  Clearly MIT has played the schedule better than has Amherst.

[John Gleich]

It sounds like you're saying that MIT should be considerably higher than Amherst...

Not at all.  Outside of the game against Williams, they are remarkably similar.  Clearly MIT has played the schedule better than has Amherst.

I meant higher SOS number, not ranking number...  I guess I don't exactly understand what you're saying, though...

[magicman]

ODAC ranked teams playing out as expected at the end of the 1st half:

Eastern Mennonite up big 50-22 over Emory and Henry.

Guilford up 42-32 over Bridgewater (Va).

Randolph-Macon up 31-30 at Virginia Wesleyan.

[Hugenerd]

If VWU beats RMC, it seems very possible that 4 ODAC teams will be ranked come next week (if the teams win out this weekend).

[magicman]

If VWU beats RMC, it seems very possible that 4 ODAC teams will be ranked come next week (if the teams win out this weekend).

4 teams are ranked right now.   I assume you meant "ranked in the Top Ten".

[magicman]

#3 Randolph-Macon loses to visiting  #12 Virginia Wesleyan 71-69

#2 Guiford wins 79-67 over Bridgewater

#7 Eastern Mennonite wins 101-69 over Emory and Henry