Top 25 talk

[sac]

So, what holds more weight for the voters involving Whitewater?

They came from 15 down at halftime to top #1 ranked Stevens Point on the road or they were down by 28 at one point in the 2nd half against a Stout team that was 9-9 going into the game and just 4-6 in conference...and that was in Whitewater.

Thats almost a wash.

[Pat Coleman]

Dunno, man -- tough call. Losing to Stout at home, losing at Eau Claire. That's two clunkers for UWW in the past 15 days.

[John Gleich]

Dunno, man -- tough call. Losing to Stout at home, losing at Eau Claire. That's two clunkers for UWW in the past 15 days.

But both are immediately after the Stevens Point game though...

I'm currently researching the results following a victory against Stevens Point for the opponents.  It hasn't been every single time, but very frequently, in recent history, after a team beats Stevens Point, they lose the next game, and it's often an upset.

Last year, Point had 2 conference losses.  Right after Whitewater beat them last February, they lost the next game to Oshkosh (an upset).  Platteville beat Point in the final game of the regular season and didn't lose the next one (they beat WW in OT), but Point got them in the conference tournament final.

It starts to really get uncanny...  Two years ago, Whitewater beat Point in the conference tournament final, and WW lost at home in the first round of the NCAA tournament (in a decided upset).  Platteville beat Point in the regular season finale, and lost at home to Eau Claire in first round of the conference tournament (an upset).  Oshkosh beat Point on Jan 26th, and they lost their next game against Platteville.  Jan 5th Oshkosh beat Point, and they lost to Platteville in their next game. 

It may just be a coincidence... but it almost looks like a "Grinnell affect" type of thing, but different... a team has to get up SO much that they don't have enough left to do it the next night, even though the "next night" is 3 or 4 nights later.

[Titan Q]

Dunno, man -- tough call. Losing to Stout at home, losing at Eau Claire. That's two clunkers for UWW in the past 15 days.

But both are immediately after the Stevens Point game though...

I'm currently researching the results following a victory against Stevens Point for the opponents.  It hasn't been every single time, but very frequently, in recent history, after a team beats Stevens Point, they lose the next game, and it's often an upset.

Last year, Point had 2 conference losses.  Right after Whitewater beat them last February, they lost the next game to Oshkosh (an upset).  Platteville beat Point in the final game of the regular season and didn't lose the next one (they beat WW in OT), but Point got them in the conference tournament final.

It starts to really get uncanny...  Two years ago, Whitewater beat Point in the conference tournament final, and WW lost at home in the first round of the NCAA tournament (in a decided upset).  Platteville beat Point in the regular season finale, and lost at home to Eau Claire in first round of the conference tournament (an upset).  Oshkosh beat Point on Jan 26th, and they lost their next game against Platteville.  Jan 5th Oshkosh beat Point, and they lost to Platteville in their next game. 

It may just be a coincidence... but it almost looks like a "Grinnell affect" type of thing, but different... a team has to get up SO much that they don't have enough left to do it the next night, even though the "next night" is 3 or 4 nights later.

I factor a lot of stuff in when I vote, but I don't think I can bring myself to consider the "game after Stevens Point" factor.  If a team can't get up for its next opponent (good team or bad) 3-4 nights after a big one vs UW-SP, that has to be a knock against that team in my opinion.  Even if recent history shows there is something to this theory, I just can't bring myself to consider it. 

[nescac1]

I haven't seen either play this year, but I nonetheless am going to employ occam's razor and guess that Whitewater is a very good (but maybe not top-five) team that happens to match up particularly well with Stevens-Point this year ... it is not unheard for a team to fare better against certain opponents than others, even if the opponent they fare better against is, generally speaking, better than a team they might struggle with. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

PS, the Eau Claire loss was not right after UWSP (It WAS right after an OT win against 'skosh).  Right after the first win over Point, UWW blew out Superior.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I haven't seen either play this year, but I nonetheless am going to employ occam's razor and guess that Whitewater is a very good (but maybe not top-five) team that happens to match up particularly well with Stevens-Point this year ... it is not unheard for a team to fare better against certain opponents than others, even if the opponent they fare better against is, generally speaking, better than a team they might struggle with. 

That certainly seems to be the feeling of Posters' Poll voters - with 7 ballots in so far, SP leads WW by 15 points (just over 2 slots per ballot).  While WW seems to have the particular matchups, in all other games this season SP is undefeated while WW has lost to three teams.

[Pat Coleman]

... two of them unranked.

[Mr. Ypsi]

... two of them unranked.

Yeah, I didn't want to be accused of piling on!

It sometimes happens that a 'better' team is 'owned' by a 'lesser' team.  I recall a few years ago two WIAC teams (Oshkosh and LaX?) had a situation where one team had the better C credentials but had been swept by the other - the committee apparently decided they couldn't very well take the team that had been swept without taking the other, so took neither.

Though two years ago, IWU swept Wheaton all three times and was (deservedly) not selected, while Wheaton 'snuck in' and went all the way to the Elite 8!

I think it is 'fairly' clear that this year UWSP (based on total performance) is better than UWW, even if they can't manage to beat them head-to-head.

[Hugenerd]

There is also the case where the inverse has happened.  Carnegie Mellon was swept by Brandeis in the regular season last year, although CMU had the better C credentials, so both teams ended up making the tourney.  I think if Brandeis had lost either of those games, they would not have made it in (they made the tourney at 17-8). Brandeis' Pool C bid was in large part because I believe CMU and Brandeis were on the table at the same time and it was hard putting a Brandeis below CMU in the head-to-head because of those wins (CMU was 19-6, with 2 of those losses to Brandeis, 2 to WashU, and 1 to Richard Stockton).  So because CMU stacked up so well against everyone else in terms of Pool C, and because Brandeis stacked up well in the head-to-head versus CMU, I think CMU essentially pushed Brandeis into the tourney.

[John Gleich]

PS, the Eau Claire loss was not right after UWSP (It WAS right after an OT win against 'skosh).  Right after the first win over Point, UWW blew out Superior.

You're right, I think I was looking at a different year.

I haven't seen either play this year, but I nonetheless am going to employ occam's razor and guess that Whitewater is a very good (but maybe not top-five) team that happens to match up particularly well with Stevens-Point this year ... it is not unheard for a team to fare better against certain opponents than others, even if the opponent they fare better against is, generally speaking, better than a team they might struggle with. 

That certainly seems to be the feeling of Posters' Poll voters - with 7 ballots in so far, SP leads WW by 15 points (just over 2 slots per ballot).  While WW seems to have the particular matchups, in all other games this season SP is undefeated while WW has lost to three teams.

If you look at both Point/Whitewater games, they were very, very close.  Yes, in the last one, Point got a big lead early (and then went down pretty big late) but they came back and retook the lead.  The first matchup went to overtime.

Both of the games could have easily gone the other way, and if they did, we'd be talking about 20-0 Stevens Point... but I think they'd be vulnerable.  Point's been able to correct some things that went wrong in their losses.

SP is also getting healthy again.  After the flu bug swept through (4 guys sick for the Oshkosh game) and injury (Dan Tillema is back and starting to play well again, his bro Tyler Tillema is still out).  I just have a feeling that Whitewater is going to lose another game and I'm not sure that Point will, including another possible matchup (or two) with Whitewater later this year.

[gordonmann]

New poll posted.

http://www.d3hoops.com/

[Ralph Turner]

Here is another interesting development in the Top 25 this season.

I have listed the number of votes that were not given to the 25 teams in the Top 25 for Week #7 for the last 5 seasons.

Year	Votes not given to the 25 in the Top 25
2009-10	138
2008-09	226
2007-08	258
2006-07	318
2005-06	271

I think that the voters don't think that there are 25 teams that deserve to be in the Top 25.

(Corrections to the back-of-the-napkin math are appreciated.)

I'd interpret it just the reverse - that the voters have reached a rough consensus on who the top 25 are.

Week #8 has all but 125 points allocated to the Top 25 teams in the poll.

Week #9 has all but 111 points allocated to the Top 25 teams in the poll.

[Greek Tragedy]

Wow.  Only 33 total teams get votes for the Top 25 in the whole nation.  Is that a record for least number of teams getting any consideration for the Top 25?  8 teams in the ORV category.

[sac]

Wow.  Only 33 total teams get votes for the Top 25 in the whole nation.  Is that a record for least number of teams getting any consideration for the Top 25?  8 teams in the ORV category.

I was going to ask the same thing