Top 25 talk

[Titan Q]

Massey has the Williams' schedule as #197 in Division III...that is lower than Chapman's (158).  Wash U's schedule is rated #40.

Massey has Williams #6 and Wash U #7.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb

[Titan Q]

Also for what it's worth, Massey has Wash U with 3 better wins than any by Williams...

#24 Illinois Wesleyan
#25 Wheaton
#27 Augustana

(Massey has Middlebury #31.)

[frodotwo]

William Patterson 20 game win streak is broken by Rutgers-Newark 55-46 http://www2.sidearmstats.com/rutgers/mbball/

EMU all over Va Wes 88-68
and Guilford wins as well 91-80

[Hugenerd]

All in all, it is a close call.  

What is also interesting, given the #1 votes, is that WashU only received 4 points less than the maximum possible (since they have 13 first place votes), meaning either 4 voters have them ranked 3rd, one has them ranked 6th, or some combination in between.  On the other hand, Williams received 10 points less than the maximum (with 12 first place votes).  That means, if you take out their first place votes (12*25 =300), their average position among other voters is just better than 3rd (303/13 = 23.3, or an average position of 2.7), while WashU's is (13*25=325, 284/12 = 23.7, or an average position of 2.3).  So the 13 voters that did not vote Williams #1 not only feel they are not the #1 team in the country, but, on average, they feel they are not the #2 team in the country either (closer to #3).  I also dont think it is likely that 10 voters put St. Thomas 2nd and Williams 3rd (given St. Thomas' vote total), and therefore it is likely that Williams is at #4 or #5 on a few voters ballots (meaning some voters likely put, in addition to St. Thomas, Guilford, Stevens Point, or maybe even Whitworth ahead of Williams). Maybe a stats professor can provide some more insight into this, but you wouldnt expect Williams vote counts to be bimodal in this case, such as #1-12 votes, #2-3, #3-10, usually you have some declining distribution (like a half normal distribution with maybe an outlier), so it is more likely that the distribution of votes looks something like #1-12 votes, #2-6, #3-4, #4-3 or #1-12 votes, #2-7, #3-3, #4-2, #5-1.  Anyway, that was interesting to me.

[Hugenerd]

Eastern Mennonite also pounds their third top 10 team by 20+ points.  They have beaten RMC, Guilford, and VWC, by a combined 70 points (23.3 ppg). 

Also, as their is no matchups between RMC, VWC, Guilford, and EMU left this season, I think it is very possible that all 4 make the tourney given none of them have more than 4 losses at this point.  Guilford and EMU have two regular season games left while EMC and VWC only have one left.  I think if RMC or VWC win the tourney, it is quite possible all 4 make the tourney.  I am not sure who is most vulnerable out of those two, any thoughts?

[frodotwo]

Texas-Tyler leading UT-Dallas by 3 w/30 sec left

now tied w/12

and UTD w/chance to win with 2 FT to go w/.09

up by 1 w/.09

[Ralph Turner]

Texas-Tyler leading UT-Dallas by 3 w/30 sec left

now tied w/12

and UTD w/chance to win with 2 FT to go w/.09

up by 1 w/.09

Final UTD 63, UT-Tyler 62

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

By the way... the win over Amherst by Williams shouldn't look as solid as one would argue. Amherst is 14-10 and in a tailspin. I indicated earlier this season that Amherst wasn't as good as they were being ranked, and I for one barely kept them in my Top 25 in January before I had no good reason to keep them there. I probably should have taken them off my ballot shortly after watching them play in January.

I tend to agree that Wash U has a tougher schedule and has been winning with that schedule. And saying the UAA only inflates the OWP and OOWP isn't necessarily true. The big difference is UAA teams actually make their schedules challenging... they don't have to. Emory could pick the easiest teams out of conference... and NYU and Brandeis certainly could, etc... but they don't usually. Williams has more out of conference games to schedule and there can admittedly only schedule so many challenging teams... but they still take on the good teams in the Northeast.

Since many know I vote, I will share with you the basics my #1 debate. I voted for Williams this week... but it was something I debated for a while (especially thanks to a hungry baby). However, the concerns I had for the Ephs were that while they had a strong W/L... their OWP is lower then I would like to see and makes me nervous their record is a bit inflated. Also, their wins over Amherst and others... that in years past would have looked great... only look good due to teams being down. Though wins over Middlebury (who I think is ranked just fine and is better then many appreciate) and others due give me some confidence.

That being said, my concern about Wash U is that they are a very good team, but they show signs on occasion of inconsistency. However, their recent results make me think they are hitting their stride just in time so it made the debate much more difficult. I ultimately went with the team with less losses and seemingly stronger results.

[nescac1]

I agree that Wash U. seems to be on a roll right now, and that makes the debate a close one.   At the same time, Williams is on a bigger roll, and they have been blowing out some teams that, while not great, are solid teams (like Bowdoin and Colby, which was itself on a major roll until Williams took them apart).  It is more than fair to look at strength of schedule -- but if you do, you should also adjust based on winning margins, and Williams' stats on the season, in terms of offensive efficiency, margin of victory, etc. have FAR exceeded Wash U.'s, and neither has played a lot of world-beaters.  I think Wash U gets more credit than it deserves for beating a few CCIW teams in what is undoubtedly the low point for the CCIW in recent memory (and probably will remain that way given the number of teams from the conference that will likely be much-improved next year); otherwise, they split with Brandeis and beat no one else of any note, and lost to a team far worse than the one loss Williams sustained.  My biggest issue, really, is that Williams could not have done anything more than it did last week, as winning back-to-back on the road by more than 15 points each game against talented NESCAC rivals (even if both are relatively down this year) is not easy, and I don't see anything Wash U. did this week as impressive enough to warrant leaping over Williams. 

In the end, it won't really matter, but makes for a fun debate.  I still think this is the most wide-open tourney in recent memory, and there is no team that is anything close to a sure thing to make the final four.  there will be some big upsets along the way, I expect ...

[Hugenerd]

By the way... the win over Amherst by Williams shouldn't look as solid as one would argue. Amherst is 14-10 and in a tailspin. I indicated earlier this season that Amherst wasn't as good as they were being ranked, and I for one barely kept them in my Top 25 in January before I had no good reason to keep them there. I probably should have taken them off my ballot shortly after watching them play in January.

I tend to agree that Wash U has a tougher schedule and has been winning with that schedule. And saying the UAA only inflates the OWP and OOWP isn't necessarily true. The big difference is UAA teams actually make their schedules challenging... they don't have to. Emory could pick the easiest teams out of conference... and NYU and Brandeis certainly could, etc... but they don't usually. Williams has more out of conference games to schedule and there can admittedly only schedule so many challenging teams... but they still take on the good teams in the Northeast.

Since many know I vote, I will share with you the basics my #1 debate. I voted for Williams this week... but it was something I debated for a while (especially thanks to a hungry baby). However, the concerns I had for the Ephs were that while they had a strong W/L... their OWP is lower then I would like to see and makes me nervous their record is a bit inflated. Also, their wins over Amherst and others... that in years past would have looked great... only look good due to teams being down. Though wins over Middlebury (who I think is ranked just fine and is better then many appreciate) and others due give me some confidence.

That being said, my concern about Wash U is that they are a very good team, but they show signs on occasion of inconsistency. However, their recent results make me think they are hitting their stride just in time so it made the debate much more difficult. I ultimately went with the team with less losses and seemingly stronger results.

I generally agree with your statements, but I would never use NYU as a good example of a team that historically schedules tough teams.  Over the past 10 years they have been notorious for scheduling cupcake out of conference teams, starting out 11-0 or 10-1, and then losing most of their games in the UAA.

[BUBeaverFan]

I thought it would be a close poll with Williams getting the edge so I was a little surprised.  Wash U needs to take care of business at home this weekend with Case and Carnegie.  Case is on a four game UAA streak and is playing among the best ball in the league.  Go Bears!

[John Gleich]

It is incredibly difficult to get meaningful info from margin of victory (MOV) because tthere are so many factors.  some of of it is philosophical from the coach... they call off the dogs a bit and sub liberally a bit earlier than other coaches, and it's often  a crapshoot when the subs get in.  A 30 point lead can dwindle to less than 20.  Conversely, a coach may keep his starters in and push the lead from 20 to 28.  The MOV is greater in the second example, but the winning team actually had a better result during crunch time against  the opponent.

[All-around]

Can someone explain how Wash U's Sean Wallis is still in school. It seems like he's been there for 6 or 7 years now...I remember he was hurt one year...

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

All-around:

Sean Wallis is in his fifth year of school (actually a Grad student) and his fourth year of eligibility. He injured himself during his "Junior" year of college. Last year was his senior year of academics and he spent quite a bit of time in the off-season deciding whether to come back and go to grad school at Wash U... or doing something else like head overseas and play... he chose to stay one more year.

So... not 6 or 7 years... more like his fifth year - not uncommon for athletes who have suffered injuries or took more time academically.

[BUBeaverFan]

Sean Wallis - 2005-06 1st year, 2006-07 2nd year, 2007-08 (medical waiver) after injury, 2008-09 3rd year, 2009-10 4th year.