Top 25 talk

[nescac1]

I guess if Midd was "wildly overranked," so were Wash U., WPU and St. Thomas, right ?  I mean, St. Thomas lost to the last team in in the first round, Wash U. barely survived the first round and lost to an unranked team in the second, both games at home, WPU lost to Albertus at home in round one.  How is that much different from Midd's performance?   And they are all ranked a lot higher than Midd (I'm not saying they shouldn't be now or at the end of the year, just that if Midd is wildly overranked, so are they).  Midd's loss is certainly a LOT more forgiveable than losing to a GNAC team in a first round game -- look what a so-so Desales team did to Albertus in round two. If you are going to use this tourney's results to "confirm" how final rankings look, I'd certainly put Midd above both WPU and St. Thomas at the end of the year.  St. Thomas didn't exactly lose to world-beaters in its last two games, both at home ...

I've seen Midd play several times.  They are a legit, at worst, top 20 team, and I'd argue that while their rating may have been a TINY bit inflated by a weak schedule, they belong in the at least the top 15 at season's end.  Yes, they had a bad loss in the second round of the tourney, but they ran into a hot team (RIC has won nine straight), Midd picked a bad day to be just incredibly off from 3 (2-22), and a slew of guys who rarely ever shoot 3 pointers from RIC were, out of nowhere, knocking them down -- not something you really game plan for.  Midd had very real problems all year which killed them in the tourney, spotty three point shooting (though much better than they showed last night), as well as poor foul shooting (also a problem last night).  But defensively, they can stop anyone, with two of the best defensive players in the country, and they are extraordinarily big, athletic, and always play very hard.  They are a young team and I am sure will be even better next year.  This is a year that doesn't have a dominant group of teams at the top.  Everyone (except Williams) has at least one head scratching loss (and many top tier teams have several), and lots of teams with gaudy records have played weak schedules.  Midd just fits in to a year with a lot of parity, as the tourney has bourne out already ...  

[wooscotsfan]

Sweet 16 matchups with Top 25 Rankings noted:

Williams #2 vs. SUNYIT
Rhode Island vs. Brandeis

Guilford #3 vs. Wooster #17
Eastern Mennonite #10 vs. Whitworth #4

Texas-Dallas #19 vs. Stevens Point #5
Illinois Wesleyan vs. Carthage #14

St. Mary's (MD) #13 vs. Franklin & Marshall #18
Randolph-Macon #16 vs. DeSales

[Titan Q]

I guess if Midd was "wildly overranked," so were Wash U., WPU and St. Thomas, right ?  I mean, St. Thomas lost to the last team in in the first round, Wash U. barely survived the first round and lost to an unranked team in the second, both games at home, WPU lost to Albertus at home in round one.  How is that much different from Midd's performance?   And they are all ranked a lot higher than Midd (I'm not saying they shouldn't be now or at the end of the year, just that if Midd is wildly overranked, so are they).  Midd's loss is certainly a LOT more forgiveable than losing to a GNAC team in a first round game -- look what a so-so Desales team did to Albertus in round two. If you are going to use this tourney's results to "confirm" how final rankings look, I'd certainly put Midd above both WPU and St. Thomas at the end of the year.  St. Thomas didn't exactly lose to world-beaters in its last two games, both at home ...

I've seen Midd play several times.  They are a legit, at worst, top 20 team, and I'd argue that while their rating may have been a TINY bit inflated by a weak schedule, they belong in the at least the top 15 at season's end.  Yes, they had a bad loss in the second round of the tourney, but they ran into a hot team (RIC has won nine straight), Midd picked a bad day to be just incredibly off from 3 (2-22), and a slew of guys who rarely ever shoot 3 pointers from RIC were, out of nowhere, knocking them down -- not something you really game plan for.  Midd had very real problems all year which killed them in the tourney, spotty three point shooting (though much better than they showed last night), as well as poor foul shooting (also a problem last night).  But defensively, they can stop anyone, with two of the best defensive players in the country, and they are extraordinarily big, athletic, and always play very hard.  They are a young team and I am sure will be even better next year.  This is a year that doesn't have a dominant group of teams at the top.  Everyone (except Williams) has at least one head scratching loss (and many top tier teams have several), and lots of teams with gaudy records have played weak schedules.  Midd just fits in to a year with a lot of parity, as the tourney has bourne out already ...  

In my opinion, this is simply a year of incredible parity.  I don't have any idea who is overrated and who is underrated.

Last night I watched Illinois Wesleyan play Wash U for the second time.  Wash U won the first game 76-71 in November (at IWU) and IWU won the tournament game last night (at Wash U) 75-70.  Anyone at both games would probably tell you there isn't a bit of separation between the teams...and if there is, IWU is a slightly better team.  Yet Wash U came in #1 and IWU unranked (because IWU lost a few they shouldn't have on paper).

I feel like whoever the best 15 teams in the country are right now (and I do not think those are currently the top 15 from the D3hoops.com poll), the gap between #1 and #15 is as small as we've ever seen. 

[ScotsFan]

Sweet 16 matchups with Top 25 Rankings noted:

Williams #2 vs. SUNYIT
Rhode Island vs. Brandeis

Guilford #3 vs. Wooster #17
Eastern Mennonite #10 vs. Whitworth #4

Texas-Dallas #19 vs. Stevens Point #5
Illinois Wesleyan vs. Carthage #14

St. Mary's (MD) #13 vs. Franklin & Marshall #18
Randolph-Macon #16 vs. DeSales

Again, I ask, could William's road to Salem be any easier???  They are the only ranked team in their sectional?  Meanwhile, all four teams are ranked in the Guilford sectional with 3 of the 4 teams ranked in the top 10?!  And Wooster, who is the only non-top 10 team in that sectional just took out #8 Whitewater!     And the other remaining sectionals each have 3 of the 4 teams being ranked. 

Why is it that the northeast always seems to have such a weak section of the bracket compared to the other 3 sections of the bracket?

[howardjp]

I guess if Brandeis gets to the final vs Williams, they should just forfeit - After all, beating #1 Washington on the road, being ranked most of the year, and beating #25 St John Fisher in Rochester means nothin'

Maybe, but that's why they play the games, as Drew Brees once said.

Sweet 16 matchups with Top 25 Rankings noted:

Williams #2 vs. SUNYIT
Rhode Island vs. Brandeis


Again, I ask, could William's road to Salem be any easier???  They are the only ranked team in their sectional?  Meanwhile, all four teams are ranked in the Guilford sectional with 3 of the 4 teams ranked in the top 10?!  And Wooster, who is the only non-top 10 team in that sectional just took out #8 Whitewater!     And the other remaining sectionals each have 3 of the 4 teams being ranked. 

Why is it that the northeast always seems to have such a weak section of the bracket compared to the other 3 sections of the bracket?

[David Collinge]

nescac1, as always, you provide an eloquent defense for Middlebury, on paper (or LCD).  But the fact remains that for two years running they have gone through a paper-tiger schedule like a blowtorch, only to come up empty in the NCAA tournament, both times at home against opponents that a legitimate top 10 team should beat.  I'm afraid they'll actually have to accomplish something before I am persuaded that #9 does not constitute a wild overranking for the Panthers.  You say they'll be even better next year; good.  Maybe I can get persuaded next March.

[Pat Coleman]

I guess if Midd was "wildly overranked," so were Wash U., WPU and St. Thomas, right ?  I mean, St. Thomas lost to the last team in in the first round, Wash U. barely survived the first round and lost to an unranked team in the second, both games at home, WPU lost to Albertus at home in round one.  How is that much different from Midd's performance?   And they are all ranked a lot higher than Midd (I'm not saying they shouldn't be now or at the end of the year, just that if Midd is wildly overranked, so are they).  Midd's loss is certainly a LOT more forgiveable than losing to a GNAC team in a first round game -- look what a so-so Desales team did to Albertus in round two. If you are going to use this tourney's results to "confirm" how final rankings look, I'd certainly put Midd above both WPU and St. Thomas at the end of the year.  St. Thomas didn't exactly lose to world-beaters in its last two games, both at home ...

You have an argument with WPU (which was already ranked behind Middlebury anyway), but not with the other two. St. Thomas lost on a neutral floor by two to a ranked team, while Wash U. lost to a team getting multiple votes as well.

[nescac1]

Fair enough David.  I am not a Midd fan or anything; I feel bad for their fans, in fact, as I do think the team is better than it has represented in the last two tournaments.  But obviously, until they step up and get it done when it counts, they won't be able to answer their critics.  They only lose one senior (granted a very important player) and they start two frosh on the perimeter, so I do believe this year's tourney experience will toughen them up and I expect bigger things to come, especially if their massive center continues to improve at the rate he has been (he has made leaps and bounds on both ends each year).  I will note that Gordon, who they beat in the first round, is not a bad team at all, and Midd really did arrive ahead of schedule this year ... 

I agree with Titan Q that this year features just tremendous parity.  Looking at the Sweet 16, I think there are at LEAST 10 teams that have legitimate chances to win it all, and of those ten (possibly more like 12), I doubt any would be more than a 5-6 point favorite over any other.  I can't recall that level of parity in MOST recent tournaments, when there were often one or two juggernauts like Williams, then Stevens Points, then VWU, then Amherst, then Wash U., plus maybe 2-3 other truly legit contenders.  

Williams does have the easiest path to Salem, but if Midd and SUNY-P had won their sectionals, that group of four would look at a lot more impressive.  RIC does seem to be hot at the right time -- they've won nine straight -- and Brandeis as we've seen can beat anyone on any given day, although I am amazed they've been able to survive this long playing basically six guys (or exactly six, in their last game).  Those guys must be seriously fit ...

[Titan Q]

Again, I ask, could William's road to Salem be any easier???  They are the only ranked team in their sectional?  Meanwhile, all four teams are ranked in the Guilford sectional with 3 of the 4 teams ranked in the top 10?!  And Wooster, who is the only non-top 10 team in that sectional just took out #8 Whitewater!     And the other remaining sectionals each have 3 of the 4 teams being ranked. 

Why is it that the northeast always seems to have such a weak section of the bracket compared to the other 3 sections of the bracket?

This is a post I made on another board back in December...

Here are the NCAA tournament roads for the NESCAC teams (pre-Salem) this decade, again with Top 15 opponents in bold...

(Note, since I couldn't figure out the location of all games, I've just listed all as "vs".)



** Middlebury, #9 (2008-09)
Round 1 - bye
Round 2 – vs Bridgewater State (lost 76-78)

** Amherst, #25 (2008-09)
Round 1 – vs  Gwynedd-Mercy (lost 62-68)
---------------

** Amherst, #3 (2007-08)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs John Jay (won 96-74)
Round 3 – vs Richard Stockton (won 78-70)
Round 4 – vs #5 Brandeis (won 65-55)

** Trinity, #24 (2007-08)
Round 1 – vs Coast Guard (lost 65-70)

** Middlebury, not ranked (2007-08)
Round 1 – vs  #13 Rochester (lost 43-56)
---------------

** Amherst, #6 (2006-07)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs Widener (won 76-63)
Round 3 – vs Stevens (won 69-61)
Round 4 – vs #21 Rhode Island (won 75-73)

** Trinity, #20 (2006-07)
Round 1 – vs Brandeis (lost 77-70 OT)
---------------

** Amherst, #4 (2005-06)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs Hamilton (won 66-65 OT)
Round 3 – vs Tufts (won 83-59)
Round 4 – vs #16 St. John Fisher (won 94-68)

** Tufts, not ranked (2005-06)
Round 1 – vs Endicott (won 83-60)
Round 2 – vs Cortland State (won 68-54)
Round 3 – vs #4 Amherst (lost 59-83)
---------------

** Amherst, #2 (2004-05)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs Springfield (won 81-68)
Round 3 – vs #21 Rochester (lost 62-69)
---------------

** Williams, #1 (2003-04)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs Salem State (won 91-77)
Round 3 – vs Brockport State (won 78-50)
Round 4 – vs Keene State (won 79-64)

** Amherst, #5 (2003-04)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs Plymouth State (won 113-85)
Round 3 – vs New Jersey City (won 92-74)
Round 4 – vs #9 Franklin & Marshall (won 82-70)

**  Trinity, #16 (2003-04)
Round 1 – vs Lasell (won 72-66)
Round 2 – vs Brockport State (lost 76-80)


---------------

** Williams, #3 (2002-03)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs Salem State (won 94-67)
Round 3 - vs Hamilton (won 76-65)
Round 4 – vs #11 Amherst (won 94-75)

** Amherst, not ranked (2002-03)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs Southern Vermont (won 84-60)
Round 3 – vs #5 Rochester (won 80-74)
Round 4 – vs #3 Williams (lost 75-94)
---------------

** Amherst, not ranked (2001-02)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2  - vs Western Connecticut (won 82-77)
Round 3 – vs #8 Brockport State (lost 64-69)

** Williams, not ranked (2001-02)
Round 1 – vs Cazenovia (won 121-49)
Round 2 – vs #18 Rochester (lost 51-66)

** Trinity, not ranked (2001-02)
Round 1 – vs Colby-Sawyer (won 74-47)
Round 2 – vs #8 Brockport State (lost 61-80)
---------------

** Amherst, not ranked (2000-01)
Round 1 – vs St. John Fisher (won 89-76)
Round 2 – vs Clark (won 89-76)
---------------

** Williams, #11 (1990-00)
Round  1 – bye
Round 2 – vs Springfield (lost 74-75)

** Amherst, not ranked (1999-00)
Round  1 – vs Western New England (won 79-77)
Round 2 – vs #21 Salem State (lost 75-81)

[Titan Q]

And I contrasted with the CCIW's road...

The pre-Salem NCAA tournament road of the CCIW entrants this decade...

The rankings noted are from the D3hoops.com Top 25 at the time of the game...in other words, from the poll before the final of the season.  I've highlighted the opponents from the Top 15.


** Wheaton, #3 (2008-09)
Round 1 - vs Fontbonne (won 85-58)
Round 2 - vs #5 UW-Platteville (won 74-69, OT)
Round 3 - vs #2 Wash U (lost 52-55) - eventual national champion

** Elmhurst, #19 (2008-09)
Round 1 - vs #8 UW-Whitewater (lost 79-81, OT)
--------------------

** Augustana, #6 (2007-08)
Round 1 – vs Aurora (won, 72-61)
Round 2 – vs #11 Wash U (lost 67-70, OT) – eventual national champion

** Wheaton, not ranked (2007-08)
Round 1 – (n) vs #15 Lawrence (won 93-83, OT)
Round 2 – (n) vs Loras (won 76-73)
Round 3 – (n) vs Whitworth (won 76-67)
Round 4 – @ #1 Hope (lost 70-83)
--------------------

** Augustana, #7 (2006-07)
Round 1 – vs Carroll (lost 69-73)
--------------------

** Illinois Wesleyan, #11 (2005-06)
Round 1 – (n) vs #17 Carroll (won 81-68)
Round 2 - @ #15 UW-Whitewater (won 76-68)
Round 3 - @ #1 Lawrence (won 63-59)
Round 4 – (n) vs #14 Puget Sound (won 89-81)

** Augustana, #13 (2005-06)
Round 1 - vs Buena Vista (won 71-66)
Round 2 - vs #19 UW-Stout (won 66-64)
Round 3 – (n) vs #14 Puget Sound (lost 81-89)

** North Central, #10 (2005-06)
Round 1 - @ #24 St. Thomas (lost 68-76)
--------------------

** Illinois Wesleyan, #6 (2004-05)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs #12 Hanover (lost 76-81)

** Wheaton, #11 (2004-05)
Round 1 vs #14 Calvin (lost 74-75)
--------------------

** Illinois Wesleyan, #19 (2003-04)
Round 1 – vs Maryville (won 82-73)
Round 2 - @ #2 Hanover (won 67-77)
Round 3 - @ #4 Wooster (lost 53-58)
--------------------

** Illinois Wesleyan, #13 (2002-03)
Round 1 – vs Blackburn (won 79-59)
Round 2 – @ #2 Wash U (won 85-73)
Round 3 – (n) vs #4 Hampden-Sydney (lost 68-76)
--------------------

** Carthage, #1 (2001-02)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs Hope (won 63-57)
Round 3 – vs #12 Gustavus Adolphus (won 71-65)
Round 4 – vs #22 Lewis & Clark (won 85-70)
--------------------
** Illinois Wesleyan, #17 (2000-01)
Round 1 – vs Grinnell (won 132-91)
Round 2 - @ #12 Wartburg (won 65-60)
Round 3 – (n) vs #9 Elmhurst (won 63-60)
Round 4 - @ #1 Chicago (won 77-68)

** Carthage, #4 (2000-01)
Round 1 – vs Marian (won 83-65)
Round 2 – @ #2 Wooster (won 88-80)
Round 3 – (n) vs UMass-Dartmouth (won 90-41)
Round 4 – @ #3 Ohio Northern (lost 64-66)

** Elmhurst, #9 (2000-01)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs #8 Wash U (won 78-77)
Round 3 – (n) vs #17 Illinois Wesleyan (lost 60-63)
--------------------

** Carthage, #12 (1999-00)
Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – vs #15 UW-Eau Claire (lost 62-74)

[Titan Q]

Bottom line, the geography of Division III is what it is.

[Ralph Turner]

Bottom line, the geography of Division III is what it is.

I agree.

With the possible exception of the ODAC, and maybe the Capital AC, the premier regions for basketball in D-III are west of the Appalachians.  I am sure that there are many fans from "second tier conferences" that wish we could be flown to bracket in MidAtlantic, Atlantic, East or New England regions, just to get a better chance of going deep into the playoffs.

[ScotsFan]

Bottom line, the geography of Division III is what it is.

I don't know what is more frustrating.  The fact that the top seed out of the northeast gets a freaking bye every year or the fact that, for the most part, the top seed out of the northeast doesn't face a ranked opponent until the 4th round almost EVERY year?!

And in stark contrast, using your CCIW compairson, you have to go all the way back to the 2001-02 season when Carthage didn't face a ranked opponent until the 3rd round and there has never been an occasion where a CCIW team has gone all the way to the 4th round without facing a ranked opponent.

As you said, I guess this is the nature of the beast when it comes to D3 geography...

[Ralph Turner]

As we look at the brackets this morning, I wish that the Whitworth pod had been placed somewhere in the St Mary's (lower right) bracket.

[nwhoops1903]

As we look at the brackets this morning, I wish that the Whitworth pod had been placed somewhere in the St Mary's (lower right) bracket.

Certainly would have helped distribute some strength.  Looks to me like after the weekend the power pendulum has shifted lower left.