Top 25 talk

[Pat Coleman]

Here's Massey's actual Top 25, as opposed to the one that the BCS would use if, god forbid, the BCS were allowed anywhere near college basketball:

   Whitworth   15   0
   St Thomas MN   13   0
   WI Stevens Pt   13   3
   Wooster   16   0
   WI River Falls   15   2

+2   Williams   15   1
-1   Augustana IL   15   0
-1   Amherst   14   0
+1   Middlebury   13   0
-1   Randolph Macon   14   2

   Wabash   14   1
   VA Wesleyan   16   0
   Lewis & Clark   12   3
+1   Hanover   12   2
+2   WI Whitewater   11   5

+11   Concordia WI   12   2
+4   Worcester Tech   13   3
+13   Gust Adolphus   8   5
+16   St Norbert   11   3
+14   St Mary's MD   12   3

-5   Wheaton IL   11   4
-2   Anderson IN   10   5
-9   Chapman   13   3
+18   WI Platteville   10   6
-7   Marietta   14   2

I've always found Massey to be interesting but a little too Wisconsin-centric for my tastes. I like a good WIAC school as much, if not even a little more than the rest of them, but Massey is too high on Wisconsin and anyone whose schedule touches a WIAC team for my tastes.

[Hugenerd]

Still not a single vote for La Roche. They only have a single loss, and beat the same CMU team that Brandeis and NYU lost to (La Roche won by 15 at CMU earlier in the season).

Their schedule is woefully poor, massey has them #351 out of 411.

Considering CMU was 3-8 overall going into the Brandeis/NYU weekend, thats a pretty tattered banner to be waving as your best win.

Let's not overlook La Roche's actual Massey Rating: #23 (in the BCS style rankings). 

69th in the non-dumbed down version of the rankings. There's a reason Massey has non-BCS rankings -- those are the ones he started with.

Pat, as you know, they aren't dumbed-down, they just dont take into account margin of victory.  Should we reward running up the score or how a team's 10-15 players perform in blowouts;)?

I also completely agree with your regional bias comment.  I was trying more to focus on the fact that no one seems to be concerned about certain teams SOS, while for others it is a big deal.  Therefore the comparison between Brandeis and La Roche.  I just dont see much difference between the two schools resumes, except the common opponent which would give the nod to La Roche.  By the way, Brandeis is #91 in the non-"dumbed-down" ratings.

[Pat Coleman]

No, but Massey doesn't either. All of the reputable computer rankings cap margin of victory and those items you wink at are not really a factor.

Should a 1-point victory be the same as a 20-point victory? Is that the best possible measure of a team's strength?

I know you are not a fan of Brandeis' position in the poll. That's been clear. You're preaching to the crowd, though. Brandeis spent one week on my ballot -- last week, after the win against NYU, they were my No. 24. So please direct your energies elsewhere.

[Hugenerd]

Well I am glad to see we are on the same page.

I would also like to see La Roche get some love (obiously I have no say in the matter), even if it is just a couple of votes.  The program has been through a lot this year and they have responded very postiively.  Can't help but pull for them.

[Pat Coleman]

The program has been through a lot this year and they have responded very postiively.  Can't help but pull for them.

I agree with both of these statements. But those aren't factors on my ballot.

[John Gleich]

I've always found Massey to be interesting but a little too Wisconsin-centric for my tastes. I like a good WIAC school as much, if not even a little more than the rest of them, but Massey is too high on Wisconsin and anyone whose schedule touches a WIAC team for my tastes.

I've always thought it was odd how Wisconsin-centric it really is.  I mean, part of that likely has to do with the fact that the WIAC, year in and year out, has the highest non-con winning percentage... but I wonder if it's an issue with the algorithm.

I think it's interesting, though, this year, how much higher Whitworth is than everybody else.  They haven't touched the WIAC at all... and are one of the most isolated geographically (along with the rest of the NWC).

[Ralph Turner]

I've always found Massey to be interesting but a little too Wisconsin-centric for my tastes. I like a good WIAC school as much, if not even a little more than the rest of them, but Massey is too high on Wisconsin and anyone whose schedule touches a WIAC team for my tastes.

I've always thought it was odd how Wisconsin-centric it really is.  I mean, part of that likely has to do with the fact that the WIAC, year in and year out, has the highest non-con winning percentage... but I wonder if it's an issue with the algorithm.

I think it's interesting, though, this year, how much higher Whitworth is than everybody else.  They haven't touched the WIAC at all... and are one of the most isolated geographically (along with the rest of the NWC).

The algorithm has always been my assumption.

[Hugenerd]

I apologize in advance for belaboring the point, but I forgot to post this earlier and I think this statistic is telling (and quite amazing for teams receiving Top 25 votes) considering about 60% of the season is done. Brandeis has only 1 win this season over a team with a winning record: NYU.  Unfortunately, NYU has exactly 0 wins over teams with winning records.  In other words, NYU and Brandeis, combined, do not have a win over a team with a winning record outside of when they played eachother.

[nwhoops1903]

#3 Whitworth starts strong at home vs Whitman.  37-12, 7:16 to go 1st half.

Now 59-30 at half.  Here are some sloppy stats:
                Wtmn-m            Whtw-m
Field goals 9-32 28.1%            20-32 62.5%
3-point FGs 3-15 20.0%           10-16 62.5%
Free throws 9-12 75.0%           9-11 81.8%
Reb (O-D) 18 (8-10)                  20 (3-17)
Turnovers 7                         2
Last FG 1st-01:22                1st-00:29
Large lead none                     32 (1st-02:24)

[Hugenerd]

I've always found Massey to be interesting but a little too Wisconsin-centric for my tastes. I like a good WIAC school as much, if not even a little more than the rest of them, but Massey is too high on Wisconsin and anyone whose schedule touches a WIAC team for my tastes.

I've always thought it was odd how Wisconsin-centric it really is.  I mean, part of that likely has to do with the fact that the WIAC, year in and year out, has the highest non-con winning percentage... but I wonder if it's an issue with the algorithm.

I think it's interesting, though, this year, how much higher Whitworth is than everybody else.  They haven't touched the WIAC at all... and are one of the most isolated geographically (along with the rest of the NWC).

For Whitworth, I think they are ranked so high because of their margin of victory. Their winning on average by 20+ points (if I am not mistaken).

[Pat Coleman]

I've always found Massey to be interesting but a little too Wisconsin-centric for my tastes. I like a good WIAC school as much, if not even a little more than the rest of them, but Massey is too high on Wisconsin and anyone whose schedule touches a WIAC team for my tastes.

I've always thought it was odd how Wisconsin-centric it really is.  I mean, part of that likely has to do with the fact that the WIAC, year in and year out, has the highest non-con winning percentage... but I wonder if it's an issue with the algorithm.

I think it's interesting, though, this year, how much higher Whitworth is than everybody else.  They haven't touched the WIAC at all... and are one of the most isolated geographically (along with the rest of the NWC).

But they have played teams who have played WIAC teams.

[nwhoops1903]

I've always found Massey to be interesting but a little too Wisconsin-centric for my tastes. I like a good WIAC school as much, if not even a little more than the rest of them, but Massey is too high on Wisconsin and anyone whose schedule touches a WIAC team for my tastes.

I've always thought it was odd how Wisconsin-centric it really is.  I mean, part of that likely has to do with the fact that the WIAC, year in and year out, has the highest non-con winning percentage... but I wonder if it's an issue with the algorithm.

I think it's interesting, though, this year, how much higher Whitworth is than everybody else.  They haven't touched the WIAC at all... and are one of the most isolated geographically (along with the rest of the NWC).

But they have played teams who have played WIAC teams.

I can only find W-SP's thumping of Linfield in NWC vs WIAC this year.  Here is some other related games of Whitworth to WIAC.

WW crushed Loras who played Platteville close.
WW defeated Luther who also played Platte close.
WW beat Ripon who defeated an above average St. Norbert who beat Oshkosh
WW beat Col College big and so did W-SP.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As a Mid-Atlantic voter... first off it's hard to talk about La Roche being in the Mid-Atlantic when Frostburg State is in the Great Lakes and other examples... but that is for another time. Secondly, I have La Roche on my radar, but right now I am not all that pleased with Mid-Atlantic basketball.

SMC and F&M have disappointed me this season... and no one else has really stepped up to impress. Yes, La Roche is 14-1 and is PSB 13-1 and undefeated in conference play. But this is a weak conference and La Roche's opponents are a combined 105-129 (.449) - that includes 10 teams at or below .500. Not bad... but also not something, considering the AMCC, I have been eager to vote in accordance with.

That being said, I do still have Brandeis on my ballot... but maybe reluctantly. They took a real hit on my ballot and barely stayed on - and it was a tough decision. The main thing here is that Brandeis has proven me wrong in the past and I eventually had to raise them up in my poll after dismissing them. My pendulum may have swung to far in the wrong direction this season, but I am still waiting to see if the first two games in UAA play were a fluke or the truth.

As for CMU, as I said on Hoopsville, I expect Rochester and Emory to actually be fighting it out on top of the UAA, not CMU or CWR. Those were good wins this weekend, but they may not have actually beaten legitimate Top 25 teams (I know, Brandeis is still on my ballot, but I am reconsidering nearly every day) - so let's not put too much stock in that just yet. Those wins may look like wins over .500 teams (as NYU nearly always seems to do in conference action or overall every year) at the end of the season.

Will La Roche or PSB get on my Mid-Atlantic ballot in the future... probably, but I am waiting to see if their winning ways continue.

And as for Massey, listen to the beginning of Hoopsville from Sunday, I do explain my thoughts on Massey. The big thing... it's all about numbers. Nothing takes into account rivalries, injuries, outside influences, or anything other then numbers. So it is something I consider, but I am not going to put a ton of stock in it when it doesn't give me that big a picture. Also... that WIAC influence drives me nuts. That alone means teams in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, etc. aren't going to be high because they don't have a connection of any sorts to the WIAC.

[KnightSlappy]

According to Massey: Williams #6, Amherst #8, Middlebury #9, WPI #17, St. Mary's (Md.) #20, Ramapo #29, W. Conn #32

It's not that much different than the d3hoops poll.

The WIAC was 48-17 versus D3 in non-conference play, so I'm not sure how much is bias and how much is them being really freakin' good.

Frostburg State is in the Mid-Atlantic this season. (and other conference-switcher Earlham is in the Midwest).

And as for Massey, listen to the beginning of Hoopsville from Sunday, I do explain my thoughts on Massey. The big thing... it's all about numbers. Nothing takes into account rivalries, injuries, outside influences, or anything other then numbers.

How much, exactly, does a rivalry change the outcome of a game? Is it really more even, or does the better team still usually win?

I looked at the previous 10 years of Calvin/Hope games (an even matchup with usually pretty even teams), and the team with the better overall season record heading into the matchup won at a 0.667 clip (18 of 27). With those numbers, we can find that it's five times (4.5, actually) more likely that the "better team" had a 67% chance of winning than 50% (as we often "say" in a rivalry). Is that significant? I dunno, I guess I had better compare it to a "non-rivalry", but it doesn't appear that the rivalryness makes the game that close to a 50-50 toss-up.

[Titan Q]

The WIAC was 48-17 versus D3 in non-conference play, so I'm not sure how much is bias and how much is them being really freakin' good.

In terms of Massey being "WIAC-centric" I believe in the simple fact above much more than the possibility of an algorithm problem.  Year in and year out, the WIAC dominates in the non-conference and, obviously, this boosts the entire league in any type of mathmatical ranking.  (As it should, by the way -- it's the best league in Division III.)

Now, I'll admit that I have never looked at the WIAC-centric issue very closely.  If someone has evidence of Massey being WIAC-centric to a degree that just does not make sense, I'm listening.