Top 25 talk

[Ralph Turner]

Who will win?

I think that it is easier for a NESCAC team (the best of the 3?) to make it to the Final Four out of that corner of the bracket than for any specific team to make it thru a bracket involving teams from the NWC, MIAC, WIAC, CCIW and the occasional WashU.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There is a lot of talk about Whitworth's depth, but as one person who has actually seen them play this year at the same location as UW-Stevens Point, that depth "concern" might be overrated.

Yes, they go about 7 deep in terms of real strength, but they will go deeper on their bench if need be. They are also extremely good in those 7 positions. I watched them still control teams and dominate when their best player was having a bad tournament. They have multiple weapons on the floor at the same time, so the strategy of stopping one and let the rest beat you doesn't work.

Sure, some would argue that teams with little depth don't tend to win championships. However, I remember Otterbein with one major threat no one could stop and I don't remember a lot of other players or depth on their bench (though, it is a bit fuzzy in my memory bank right now).

I am still skeptical about Williams and Amherst since I just am not sure how good they really are, but am looking forward to the next few weeks to have a better look.

Finally, the point about UWSP is interesting. They are not playing with Jared Jenkins this season and that takes a major weapon away from them at the guard/#3 position. I was less impressed with them in Las Vegas, though how they are playing now may certainly be different.

As for depth between Whitworth and UWSP, here are the links worth looking at:
Whitworth: http://www.whitworth.edu/Athletics/Teams/BasketballMen/Statistics/10-11/html/teamcume.htm#TEAM.IND
UWSP: http://athletics.uwsp.edu/custompages/mbball/2010-11/teamcume.htm#TEAM.IND

While UWSP has more players providing more points, Whitworth has more players contributing high point averages. I would say it's like comparing apples and oranges. (Yes, I am aware no one made an actual statement of comparison for these two, but since the discussion was concern for Whitworth's depth and UWSP playing better, I used the two for a comparison.)

As for Amherst: https://www3.amherst.edu/~sports/current/m-bball/teamcume.htm#TEAM.IND
They certainly have a similar look, stats wise, as Whitworth.
And Williams: http://williams.prestosports.com/sports/mbkb/2010-11/files/teamcume.htm#TEAM.IND
Again... looks like Whitworth.

And yes... in some ways it is easier for a NESCAC team to make the Final Four out of their region/bracket then it will be for UWRF, St. Thomas, UWSP, Whitworth, Augustana, etc. to get there.

[nescac1]

I obviously haven't seen Whitworth play, so I am just going on stats, which is of limited value.  But it just seems like, based on stats, they have six guys who produce a ton, and a seventh guy who barely produces, and that is it.  Maybe there are guys with potential to do good things on the bench, but when none have played more than 10 minutes pg or averaged more than 2 ppg all year, do you feel comfortable relying on them to be major producers in a huge spot?  

Amherst has, when healthy, eight guys averaging over 7 points per game, that is a big difference from six.  Amherst's issue is that it has rarely had more than six or seven of those eight healthy at the same time this season, but all eight are quality starter-caliber players when playing at 100 percent.  

Williams plays a nine man rotation, and of that nine man group, eight are averaging at least five ppg and play substantial minutes night in and night out, and three of the bench guys have all had really big games, in big spots, at times.  Williams also has a tenth guy averaging nearly five ppg who only plays in certain situations, but has been in the rotation at times.  

Meanwhile, look at the last reasonably close game Whitworth played, which is typical of their competitive games:

http://www.whitworth.edu/Athletics/Teams/BasketballMen/Statistics/10-11/html/m20-ups.htm

4 points, 1 board, no assists in TOTAL from players after number six in the rotation.  If one guy gets hurt or into serious foul trouble, suddenly you are looking at five guys playing almost the entire game.  Just seems on its face like a big difference.  In a conference with, likely, no other NCAA teams, sure, they can still dominate, but against a top-notch WIAC  team?  Might be a different story.  I'll grant that the top six guys, especially with two D-1 transfers, seem to be really impressive.

Similar deal vs. Carthage, two guys played basically the entire game, and only six players scored:

http://www.whitworth.edu/Athletics/Teams/BasketballMen/Statistics/10-11/html/m3-carth.htm

Another fairly close game, one of their stars fouls out, but no one on the bench picks up the slack, as only one bench player even attempted a FG:

http://www.whitworth.edu/Athletics/Teams/BasketballMen/Statistics/10-11/html/m13-ups.htm

I'm just saying, when you are counting on a few guys to really carry the team, and you don't have more than one bench player who is going to be a legit scoring threat in a big game, that has to catch up to you at some point, unless you can just dominate games from the start (as they have most of the year, but, again, not vs. any ranked teams). 

[nescac1]

Oh, and one other point -- while in most years, it is true that New England teams have an easier path to the Final Four, that won't be the case this year if the NCAA keeps the top New England teams together in one quarter.   In fact, this year, New England is easily the most top-heavy region, with the number 2, 3, 7, 12, and 14 teams in the country.  West is next best, with 1, 8, 9, 10, and no one else is really close.

As noted the West looks brutal as well, but even still, Stevens Point always seems to get it done come tourney time ... I wouldn't bet against them. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

nescac1 - one advantage the NESCAC and New England teams have is that the NCAA can easily shift them other pods/brackets to separate them. That is why Amherst and Williams didn't meet until the Final Four a few years back.

That isn't as easy for the Midwest/West as that would be sending teams to the east coast to get them away from one another - however, the committee does try to shift teams as much as they can (at least season) to allow match-ups to happen as late as possible. However, you still get week brackets like the one RMC came out of last season.

[LustyLarryintheToilet]

i think it'd be unfair to RMC and the NCAAs to call that region weak.  The issue in that region was the defacto "top seed" William Paterson lost in the opener in a thriller.  You still had 3/top 4 of East, the top 4 Mid Atlantic teams and MIT. 

[Pat Coleman]

William Paterson, the "1 seed" was ranked No. 7 entering the tournament. That wasn't so bad. Losing No. 21 MIT out of the bracket isn't exactly an earth-shattering difference, though.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I am just going by the fact that I followed that bracket rather well due to the fact I was at SMC for two straight weekends in the tournament... and that RMC was clearly the #4 team at the final four. I don't think SMC, F&M, MIT, or William Patterson would have done well at the final four either.

There is always one bracket that is the easiest/weakest of the four... and last year it was the RMC one.

[rmc1982]

On an unrelated note, there's a HUGE inter-regional and Conference game tomorrow night at Virginia Wesleyan with Randolph-Macon coming into the Fish Tank to play the Marlins-should be a GREAT game!!Will any of you be attending D-Mac and Pat?ODAC Regular Season and Region 1st place on the line!!

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

Curiosity has me peaked with the cover story of the #1 in the top 25.

Obviously Spokane is the furthest west.  What about north, south, and east?  Same question for the women's side? (N-S-E-W)

[Pat Coleman]

Going to go off the cuff here, these are not official.

Suspect in women's the furthest east is Bowdoin, furthest south is Trinity, furthest west is George Fox. I believe George Fox is also the furthest north.

[nwhoops1903]

Strength of schedule seems to be an issue for some who might question Whitworth's quality.

Massey has:

Whitworth schedule at #24
Amherst schedule at #168
Williams schedule at #70
Middlebury schedule at #137

NWC power conf. at 4th with 4 teams in top 33 of Massey
NE Smalls conf. power at 3rd with 4th team at 99

Conclusion:  Other than playing each other, these three teams from NESCAC haven't played against any serious competition.  That's 4 very tough games on schedule but not much more (#133 Elms for Williams, ME Farmington #310 took Amherst to OT, #117 Plattsburg battled Middlebury, #123 Skidmore, #164 Bates close win at home... ).  WW has 6 tough games plus games won against Massey power 40, 56, & 58. 

9 games vs 4 games?

[David Collinge]

Men's: Whitworth west & north, Amherst east, Va. Wesleyan south.
Women's: Pat's guesses are correct: George Fox west & north, Bowdoin east, Trinity south

caveat: I only checked from the end of the 2007-08 season backwards. It's possible there's been some geography busters since then, but none come to mind other than Whitworth.

[David Collinge]

Going to go off the cuff here, these are not official.

Suspect in women's the furthest east is Bowdoin, furthest south is Trinity, furthest west is George Fox. I believe George Fox is also the furthest north.

Whitworth definitely has GF beat on the North category. WA still above OR when I woke up today.    Spokane is 80-100 miles south of the border.  Any real north Minn schools would be "taller".  But I think Pat is talking women.

What was your first clue?

[nwhoops1903]

Going to go off the cuff here, these are not official.

Suspect in women's the furthest east is Bowdoin, furthest south is Trinity, furthest west is George Fox. I believe George Fox is also the furthest north.

Whitworth definitely has GF beat on the North category. WA still above OR when I woke up today.    Spokane is 80-100 miles south of the border.  Any real north Minn schools would be "taller".  But I think Pat is talking women.

What was your first clue?

No fair, you removed/edited your post which I was referring to...