Top 25 talk

[KnightSlappy]

Whitworth loses!  Whitman holds Pirates scoreless last 4+ minutes and scores something like the last 15 points in the game?

 

Well at least it isn't March.

Digger Phelps would say that it's a good thing. He somehow believes that it's good to lose before the tournament because "the #1 team has a really low chance of winning the championship."

I can't believe he gets paid for that crap.

...I think that depends on your definition of "low chance."  I doubt that Digger has done a statistical analysis of the chances of the #1 team versus anybody else in the tournament (specifically the D-I tournament... because that's what he's talking about).

FWIW, Ken Pomeroy has done a post on his blog about the outcome of the preseason poll compared to the poll heading into the tournament.  The AP Preseason poll has actually been better at "picking" the #1 team:  LINK

In 21 years, nearly half the teams (10/21) slotted as the #1 in the preseason poll have made it to the championship, with 6 of them winning.  The final regular season poll has 6/21, with 3 of them winning.

There wasn't any analysis of other positions in either poll... to see if a any one poll position had performed better than the #1 going into the tournament. 

Not extraordinarily enlightening... previous results have absolutely nothing to do with future results in terms of a predictor... but interesting none the less.

Right. I remember that study from ealier in the year. I love stuff like that.

I think the point Digger was trying to make was that the #1 team [in the poll] has the biggest target on their back. I'm not sure I buy the idea that teams are "gunning for" #1 in the tournament. I think everyone's looking for blood.

My initial reaction to his insistance that the #1 team has a low chance of winning was "Everyone's got a low chance of winning".

[LustyLarryintheToilet]

The D1 mens basketball tournament is the biggest crapshoot in sports.  68 teams, all neutral or semi-neutral matchups in terms of home court, no re-seeding, and no best of 3,5, or 7 series. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 3 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/16/ncaa-2011-regional-rankings-week-3/

[Flying Dutch Fan]

The D1 mens basketball tournament is the biggest crapshoot in sports.  68 teams, all neutral or semi-neutral matchups in terms of home court, no re-seeding, and no best of 3,5, or 7 series. 

And that's why it's so popular

[ziggy]

The D1 mens basketball tournament is the biggest crapshoot in sports.  68 teams, all neutral or semi-neutral matchups in terms of home court, no re-seeding, and no best of 3,5, or 7 series. 

And that's why it's so popular

Why wait for the final round? Division III generally has a de facto championship game much earlier than that!

[sac]

The FA Cup in England is a much bigger crapshoot in my opinion.  They literally draw names out of hat.

[Ralph Turner]

Then I guess it could be two #1's not ranked.

sac.
There is presently three #1 regionally ranked teams that are not ranked.
Ramapo in the Atlantic
Oswego in the East
LaRoche in the Middle Atlantic

I believe they will maintain those ranking when the new rankings come out tomorrow

Right you are!  +1! 

[John Gleich]

My initial reaction to his insistance that the #1 team has a low chance of winning was "Everyone's got a low chance of winning".

Exactly... I don't know how telling it would really be to do any sort of an analysis on other teams... other than to just step back and say "Huh, that's interesting," I don't think it would really accomplish much else!

The only "advantage" to being a #1 seed is that you get to play a team that is deemed to be the least skilled (deemed as such by the selection committee, as determined by the season's results).  After round 1, you most likely are going to be playing at at-large team who made it to the tournament on their own merits... which means that they most certainly have beaten other good teams. 

[magicman]

Carnage in the Top 25 tonight

#10 WPI loses to Springfield 72-60.

#12 UW-River Falls loses to UW-La Crosse 93-78

#13 Marietta falls to Capital 91-82

#17 Wittenberg loses to #18 Wabash  70-59

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared--Midweek Report

(edit:  Added SOS numbers from the most recent NCAA reports.  This was done manually by the poster gadk on the Women's Top 25 board; I "taught" my program to pull the information out of the published docs so that I could automate the process.)
(7:27pm -- corrected IWU's SOS.)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	SOS	Results
#1	621	Whitworth	23-1	0.487	LOST at Whitman, 79-82; 02/19 at Pacific
#2	602	Williams	23-1	0.579	02/19 vs. Bowdoin
#3	560	Augustana	22-1	0.481	02/19 at North Central (Ill.)
#4	548	Middlebury	21-1	0.573	def. Hamilton, 69-56; 02/17 vs. Green Mountain; 02/19 vs. Connecticut College
#5	498	Wooster	22-2	0.529	def. Kenyon, 73-58; 02/19 vs. Ohio Wesleyan
#6	497	UW-Stevens Point	21-3	0.555	def. UW-Platteville, 82-54; 02/19 at UW-La Crosse
#7	474	Virginia Wesleyan	21-3	0.515	LOST at #14 Eastern Mennonite, 71-86; def. Lynchburg, 60-52; 02/19 at Emory and Henry
#8	443	Amherst	21-2	0.463	02/19 vs. Bates
#9	405	Randolph-Macon	20-4	0.546	02/19 vs. Hampden-Sydney
#10	365	WPI	20-4	0.532	LOST at Springfield, 60-72; 02/19 vs. Clark
#11	362	St. Thomas	21-3	0.548	def. Concordia-Moorhead, 64-51; def. Hamline, 82-60; 02/19 at St. John's
#12	347	UW-River Falls	19-5	0.546	LOST at UW-La Crosse, 78-93; 02/19 at UW-Platteville
#13	312	Marietta	21-3	0.435	LOST at Capital, 82-91; 02/19 at John Carroll
#14	308	Eastern Mennonite	20-4	0.471	def. #7 Virginia Wesleyan, 86-71; def. Washington and Lee, 94-82; 02/19 at Guilford
#15	218	Franklin and Marshall	20-4	0.487	def. Johns Hopkins, 72-60; 02/19 vs. Dickinson
#16	197	Chapman	20-3	0.523	def. West Coast Baptist, 72-39; 02/18 at West Coast Baptist
#17	157	Wittenberg	17-6	0.494	LOST at #18 Wabash, 59-70; 02/19 at Hiram
#18	153	Wabash	18-5	0.532	def. #17 Wittenberg, 70-59; 02/19 vs. Oberlin
#19	148	St. Mary's (Md.)	19-5	0.482	02/19 at Frostburg State
#20	142	Western Connecticut	20-4	0.539	def. Eastern Connecticut, 75-71; 02/19 vs. Mass-Boston
#21	133	Ferrum	21-3	0.432	02/19 at T#38 North Carolina Wesleyan
#22	131	Rochester	18-4	0.487	02/18 at Carnegie Mellon; 02/20 at Case Western Reserve
#23	113	Centre	17-4	0.454	02/18 at Rhodes; 02/20 at Birmingham-Southern
#24	86	St. Norbert	17-5	0.474	02/19 vs. Lawrence
#25	42	Concordia (Wis.)	21-3	0.492	def. Edgewood, 71-66

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	SOS	Results
#26	40	Becker	21-3	0.543	def. Wheelock, 84-70; 02/19 vs. Mitchell
#27	35	Emory	18-4	0.441	02/18 at Case Western Reserve; 02/20 at Carnegie Mellon
#28	31	Hope	18-6	0.525	LOST to Albion, 76-78; 02/19 at Kalamazoo
#29	28	Ramapo	20-5	0.512	def. William Paterson, 62-49; def. William Paterson, 64-59
#30	21	Manchester	18-6	0.513	def. Anderson, 81-71; 02/19 vs. Transylvania
#31	20	Oswego State	20-3	0.527	def. New Paltz State, 68-57; 02/18 vs. Brockport State; 02/19 vs. Geneseo State
#32	19	Lewis and Clark	17-6	0.556	02/18 vs. Puget Sound; 02/19 at Willamette
#33	17	Penn State-Behrend	21-3	0.439	def. Allegheny, 83-73; 02/19 at Mount Aloysius
#34	14	Illinois Wesleyan	16-7	0.519	LOST at North Central (Ill.), 58-64; 02/19 vs. North Park
#35	11	La Roche	22-2	0.488	def. Franciscan (Ohio), 75-60; 02/19 vs. Medaille
#36	10	Hanover	18-5	0.511	def. Rose-Hulman, 69-66; 02/19 at Anderson
#37	9	Texas-Dallas	18-4	0.537	def. Mississippi College, 56-54; 02/17 vs. Texas-Tyler; 02/19 vs. LeTourneau
T#38	4	New Jersey City	16-9	0.513	def. Montclair State, 82-62; LOST at Montclair State, 53-62; 02/19 vs. Rowan
T#38	4	North Carolina Wesleyan	17-6	0.527	02/17 vs. Averett; 02/19 vs. #21 Ferrum
#40	2	Carleton	17-7	0.563	def. Bethel, 72-60; def. Macalester, 72-68; 02/19 vs. St. Olaf
#41	1	Salem State	17-6	0.453	def. Bridgewater State, 88-87; 02/17 vs. Lesley; 02/19 vs. Worcester State

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks for the update Darryl.  What a morass!  There is nothing beyond the Top 11-14 that can solidly claim Top 25 status.  I believe that the fans of the next 30 teams that have received votes perilously look at the remaining season and conference tournaments and know how tough it will be.

[Greek Tragedy]

Great job Darryl!

[nwhoops1903]

Whitworth cleans up the mess from loss Tuesday at Whitman and wins at Pacific 84-55.  This is the same team that beat Whitman last night (Friday).  Lewis and Clark lose finale at home against Willamette so the NWC tournament seeds are set.  #1 Whitworth, #2 Whitman, #3 Lewis and Clark #4 Pacific Lutheran.  

With Augustana loss, now 3 teams with 1 loss.  I can see Williams and Whitworth switching top spots.  Middlebury was 7th 2 weeks ago so I think they only get the 3rd but I am a total homer.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (Complete)

SOS scores taken from the most recent NCAA report (dated 2/16).  For the stat geeks out there, here is information about the distribution of the SOS scores in this list (not ALL SOS scores):

• Mean = 0.508, SD = 0.0388
• min = 0.432, Q₁ = 0.4815, Med = 0.513, Q₃ = 0.5380, max = 0.579

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	SOS	Results
#1	621	Whitworth	24-1	0.487	LOST at Whitman, 79-82; def. Pacific, 84-45
#2	602	Williams	24-1	0.579	def. Bowdoin, 82-62
#3	560	Augustana	22-2	0.481	LOST at North Central (Ill.), 46-50
#4	548	Middlebury	23-1	0.573	def. Hamilton, 69-56; def. Green Mountain, 74-30; def. Connecticut College, 61-41
#5	498	Wooster	23-2	0.529	def. Kenyon, 73-58; def. Ohio Wesleyan, 81-72
#6	497	UW-Stevens Point	22-3	0.555	def. UW-Platteville, 82-54; def. UW-La Crosse, 79-71
#7	474	Virginia Wesleyan	22-3	0.515	LOST at #14 Eastern Mennonite, 71-86; def. Lynchburg, 60-52; def. Emory and Henry, 82-72
#8	443	Amherst	22-2	0.463	def. Bates, 77-61
#9	405	Randolph-Macon	21-4	0.546	def. Hampden-Sydney, 61-60
#10	365	WPI	21-4	0.532	LOST at Springfield, 60-72; def. Clark, 69-52
#11	362	St. Thomas	22-3	0.548	def. Concordia-Moorhead, 64-51; def. Hamline, 82-60; def. St. John's, 72-61
#12	347	UW-River Falls	19-6	0.546	LOST at UW-La Crosse, 78-93; LOST at UW-Platteville, 58-62
#13	312	Marietta	22-3	0.435	LOST at Capital, 82-91; def. John Carroll, 82-81
#14	308	Eastern Mennonite	21-4	0.471	def. #7 Virginia Wesleyan, 86-71; def. Washington and Lee, 94-82; def. Guilford, 84-82
#15	218	Franklin and Marshall	20-5	0.487	def. Johns Hopkins, 72-60; LOST to Dickinson, 66-77
#16	197	Chapman	21-3	0.523	def. West Coast Baptist, 72-39; def. West Coast Baptist, 75-39
#17	157	Wittenberg	17-7	0.494	LOST at #18 Wabash, 59-70; LOST at Hiram, 65-87
#18	153	Wabash	19-5	0.532	def. #17 Wittenberg, 70-59; def. Oberlin, 72-42
#19	148	St. Mary's (Md.)	20-5	0.482	def. Frostburg State, 75-71
#20	142	Western Connecticut	21-4	0.539	def. Eastern Connecticut, 75-71; def. Mass-Boston, 97-86
#21	133	Ferrum	21-4	0.432	LOST at T#38 North Carolina Wesleyan, 71-74
#22	131	Rochester	20-4	0.487	def. Carnegie Mellon, 63-50; def. Case Western Reserve, 95-85
#23	113	Centre	18-5	0.454	def. Rhodes, 59-51; LOST at Birmingham-Southern, 63-67
#24	86	St. Norbert	18-5	0.474	def. Lawrence, 66-55
#25	42	Concordia (Wis.)	22-3	0.492	def. Edgewood, 71-66; def. Benedictine, 85-83

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	SOS	Results
#26	40	Becker	22-3	0.543	def. Wheelock, 84-70; def. Mitchell, 85-50
#27	35	Emory	19-5	0.441	def. Case Western Reserve, 83-64; LOST at Carnegie Mellon, 70-72
#28	31	Hope	19-6	0.525	LOST to Albion, 76-78; def. Kalamazoo, 80-73
#29	28	Ramapo	20-5	0.512	def. William Paterson, 62-49; def. William Paterson, 64-59
#30	21	Manchester	19-6	0.513	def. Anderson, 81-71; def. Transylvania, 79-62
#31	20	Oswego State	22-3	0.527	def. New Paltz State, 68-57; def. Brockport State, 69-61; def. Geneseo State, 54-50
#32	19	Lewis and Clark	18-7	0.556	def. Puget Sound, 89-85; LOST at Willamette, 73-76
#33	17	Penn State-Behrend	22-3	0.439	def. Allegheny, 83-73; def. Mount Aloysius, 91-66
#34	14	Illinois Wesleyan	17-7	0.519	LOST at North Central (Ill.), 58-64; def. North Park, 73-57
#35	11	La Roche	23-2	0.488	def. Franciscan (Ohio), 75-60; def. Medaille, 68-64
#36	10	Hanover	18-6	0.511	def. Rose-Hulman, 69-66; LOST at Anderson, 63-72
#37	9	Texas-Dallas	20-4	0.537	def. Mississippi College, 56-54; def. Texas-Tyler, 76-74; def. LeTourneau, 83-47
T#38	4	New Jersey City	17-9	0.513	def. Montclair State, 82-62; LOST at Montclair State, 53-62; def. Rowan, 75-72
T#38	4	North Carolina Wesleyan	19-6	0.527	def. Averett, 70-66; def. #21 Ferrum, 74-71
#40	2	Carleton	18-7	0.563	def. Bethel, 72-60; def. Macalester, 72-68; def. St. Olaf, 84-73
#41	1	Salem State	19-6	0.453	def. Bridgewater State, 88-87; def. Lesley, 100-60; def. Worcester State, 91-68

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Final Regional Rankings are out before Selection Sunday: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/category/ncaa-stuff/regional-rankings/