Top 25 talk

[howardjp]

After this coming weekend, Rochester will have 2 home games
left and will play 5 good UAA teams on the road

quote author=madzillagd link=topic=4097.msg1488132#msg1488132 date=1358876928]
We definitely will see some movement in the Top 10 this week with some great matchups.

#1 St Thomas: already lost as we know, expect a drop but not too far. 
#2 Rochester: 1/25 NYU team on the bubble, 1/27 #19 Brandeis
#3 Midd: 1/26 @ #9 Williams
#5 North Central: 1/23 @ #16 Ill Wesleyan, 1/26 @ #25 Wheaton
#7 UWSP: 1/23 #13 UW-Whitewater   
#9 Williams: 1/23 @ #14 Amherst, 1/26 #3 Middlebury
[/quote]

[KnightSlappy]

Offensive and defensive efficiency numbers (points per 100 possessions) for the current members of the Top-25:

Pace   OEff   DEff  Margin Team
67.1   126.0   91.4   34.5   St. Thomas
66.8   122.1   94.8   27.2   Rochester
71.5   116.0   89.5   26.6   Williams
68.3   109.4   83.9   25.5   Calvin
64.1   113.4   89.1   24.3   Catholic
79.1   110.2   86.8   23.3   Hampden-Sydney
69.8   115.1   93.0   22.2   Middlebury
70.0   106.3   84.8   21.6   WPI
71.9   117.1   95.8   21.3   Amherst
64.9   106.9   86.0   21.0   North Central (Ill.)
66.6   109.1   88.7   20.4   Wheaton (Ill.)
66.9   113.7   95.1   18.6   Whitworth
68.5   109.1   90.6   18.5   Wooster
73.1   105.9   88.0   17.9   Ramapo
63.4   114.0   96.4   17.6   UW-Stevens Point
67.0   107.2   90.9   16.3   Brandeis
68.1   109.8   93.5   16.2   Washington U.
68.2   110.8   95.0   15.8   Ohio Wesleyan
66.5   104.5   89.2   15.4   St. Marys (Md.)
72.1   105.2   89.9   15.3   Christopher Newport
69.9   103.4   88.1   15.3   Stevens
67.0   107.7   92.9   14.8   Illinois Wesleyan
64.7   110.3   96.7   13.5   UW-Whitewater
69.0    92.5   79.6   13.0   Rhode Island College
78.8   109.1   100.4   8.7   Albertus Magnus

Margin is OEff minus DEff (or points better than your opponents per 100 possessions). Pace is possessions per game. Numbers are not adjusted for strength of opponent. I think, generally speaking, an average team would have a 100 OEff and DEff.

[Mr. Ypsi]

For Albertus, did you exclude the Yale game?  That could seriously skew their results.

[KnightSlappy]

For Albertus, did you exclude the Yale game?  That could seriously skew their results.

What skews their results more: one game versus Yale or all the other games against terrible teams? Even with the Yale game, Massey rates their schedule as the 364th most difficult in Division III.

[Mr. Ypsi]

For Albertus, did you exclude the Yale game?  That could seriously skew their results.

What skews their results more: one game versus Yale or all the other games against terrible teams? Even with the Yale game, Massey rates their schedule as the 364th most difficult in Division III.

Good point.  But several of the other teams also have lots of games against terrible teams; so far as I know, only Albertus has a game against a d1 (albeit a subpar one).

Probably a moot point anyway - after the loss to Anna Maria, they will probably not sniff the Top 25 again this season.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Not helping Albertus Magnus' cause by saying Yale is sub-par considering the point spread was nearly 60

[ziggy]

Not helping Albertus Magnus' cause by saying Yale is sub-par considering the point spread was nearly 60

Right. Massey says Yale and St. Thomas are virtually equal on a neutral court: http://masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=193573&t0=6926&h=0&s1=193573&t1=9177, Yale by 3 at home.

[sac]

For Albertus, did you exclude the Yale game?  That could seriously skew their results.

At this point of the season, large margins should only move the needle about 2 points in either direction for both offense and defense.

Typically I have removed D1 results.  Albertus was #46 of my 50, removing the Yale game would only get them to #38

[Mr. Ypsi]

OMG - people will think I'm an Albertus supporter!

Just thought they should get a little more respect for being undefeated against d3 opponents until late January - regardless of opponents.  Don't worry - they are off my PP ballot until they start a season 27-0 (maybe 26-1 IF their d1 opponent is Duke, Kansas, or Michigan! )

[Mr. Ypsi]

Williams falls to Amherst: 83-67.

[Greek Tragedy]

OMG - people will think I'm an Albertus supporter!

Just thought they should get a little more respect for being undefeated against d3 opponents until late January - regardless of opponents.  Don't worry - they are off my PP ballot until they start a season 27-0 (maybe 26-1 IF their d1 opponent is Duke, Kansas, or Michigan! )

Reminds me of Grinnell several years ago.  They started undefeated and never got any love.  They finally broke into the poll and they rewarded their voters with a loss!

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	619	St. Thomas	17-1	LOST at Concordia-Moorhead, 52-54; def. St. Mary's (Minn.), 87-46; 01/26 vs. Hamline
#2	585	Rochester	16-0	01/25 vs. New York University; 01/27 vs. #19 Brandeis
#3	583	Middlebury	16-0	won at St. Joseph's (Vt.), 75-46; 01/26 at #9 Williams
#4	534	Whitworth	16-1	01/25 at Puget Sound; 01/26 at Pacific Lutheran
#5	519	North Central (Ill.)	16-2	LOST at #16 Illinois Wesleyan, 61-69; 01/26 at #25 Wheaton (Ill.)
#6	506	WPI	19-0	def. T#38 Springfield, 69-66
#7	483	UW-Stevens Point	17-2	def. #13 UW-Whitewater, 67-57; 01/26 vs. UW-Superior
#8	430	Wooster	15-2	def. Kenyon, 86-52; 01/26 vs. Hiram
#9	393	Williams	16-2	LOST at #14 Amherst, 67-83; 01/26 vs. #3 Middlebury
#10	358	Catholic	16-2	def. Goucher, 72-46; 01/26 at Merchant Marine
#11	351	Ramapo	17-2	won at Kean, 70-55; 01/26 at TCNJ
#12	317	St. Mary's (Md.)	17-2	won at Gallaudet, 63-47; 01/26 at York (Pa.)
#13	303	UW-Whitewater	14-4	LOST at #7 UW-Stevens Point, 57-67; 01/26 at UW-Eau Claire
#14	278	Amherst	16-2	def. #9 Williams, 83-67; 01/26 vs. Trinity (Conn.)
#15	236	Christopher Newport	14-2	def. Averett, 76-52; 01/26 vs. Methodist
#16	226	Illinois Wesleyan	15-3	def. #5 North Central (Ill.), 69-61; 01/26 at Elmhurst
#17	207	Calvin	16-2	won at Olivet, 73-57; 01/26 at #32 Adrian
#18	197	Albertus Magnus	15-2	LOST at Anna Maria, 88-97; 01/24 at Lasell; 01/26 vs. Norwich
#19	127	Brandeis	14-2	01/25 at T#38 Emory; 01/27 at #2 Rochester
#20	123	Stevens	14-2	LOST at Hartwick, 56-63; 01/25 at Ithaca; 01/26 at Elmira
#21	119	Rhode Island College	15-2	def. Western Connecticut, 56-51; 01/26 at Eastern Connecticut
#22	115	Ohio Wesleyan	14-3	won at Wabash, 77-53; 01/26 at DePauw
#23	106	Hampden-Sydney	16-2	won at T#33 Randolph, 79-63; 01/26 vs. #30 Guilford
#24	102	Washington U.	12-4	01/25 at Carnegie Mellon; 01/27 at Case Western Reserve
#25	51	Wheaton (Ill.)	14-4	def. Elmhurst, 77-52; 01/26 vs. #5 North Central (Ill.)

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	48	Franklin and Marshall	14-4	LOST at Dickinson, 63-71; 01/26 at Haverford
#27	47	Rose-Hulman	15-2	01/24 vs. Manchester; 01/26 vs. Mount St. Joseph
#28	32	Virginia Wesleyan	13-4	def. Shenandoah, 84-51; 01/26 at Washington and Lee
#29	25	Transylvania	14-4	def. Franklin, 87-68; 01/26 at Defiance
#30	24	Guilford	14-4	LOST to Lynchburg, 66-86; 01/26 at #23 Hampden-Sydney
#31	22	Wesley	15-4	01/26 at Marymount
#32	15	Adrian	15-3	won at Albion, 63-49; 01/26 vs. #17 Calvin
T#33	12	Augustana	14-4	won at Millikin, 63-54; 01/26 at North Park
T#33	12	Randolph	15-3	won at William Peace, 80-63; LOST to #23 Hampden-Sydney, 63-79; 01/26 at Shenandoah
#35	8	St. Norbert	13-3	won at Lake Forest, 64-48; 01/26 at Knox
#36	6	Marietta	13-5	LOST at Otterbein, 62-72; 01/26 at Ohio Northern
#37	4	MIT	13-4	won at Clark, 55-50; 01/26 at Coast Guard
T#38	1	Emory	11-4	01/25 vs. #19 Brandeis; 01/27 vs. New York University
T#38	1	Springfield	14-5	LOST at #6 WPI, 66-69; 01/26 vs. Babson

[goscots]

Wooster actually "won" two games yesterday as it was announced that their Jan 4 games against  Sheridan (Canada) is now official instead of an exhibition. Wooster is now 16-2.

[pjunito]

For Albertus, did you exclude the Yale game?  That could seriously skew their results.

What skews their results more: one game versus Yale or all the other games against terrible teams? Even with the Yale game, Massey rates their schedule as the 364th most difficult in Division III.

It is tough for a team like Albertus; none of the top teams in the region want to play them (It's a lose, lose for them). Albertus have been trying to schedule tougher out of conference games for 3 years now and everyone says no. Makes it hard to move up on SOS when the conference they play in is so weak.

I'm not saying they are a top 25 team (in my opinion, they are probably 35-40 team), but it is unfair to kill their SOS when other schools repeatly say no. Becker won't play them anymore after two consecutive loses to Albertus.

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks, pjunito. We feel your pain.