Top 25 talk

[Gregory Sager]

NCC is pretty banged up right now and going through a very difficult patch of games.  The CCIW is really good this year, even by their own standards.

That's not really true. The cumulative non-conference record is better than last year's -- which was a disaster by CCIW standards -- but it's still about 5 to 8 percent lower than it was during the league's heyday in the last decade. This may or may not affect the SOS of the CCIW's Pool C aspirants come Selection Monday.

I also think the conference's prominence gives them extra attention from the voters.

I'll admit it, I think that that might be true.

[Pat Coleman]

North Central went from 519 to 439, losing 80 points. Yes, only two spots, but the equivalent of a little more than three spots on the average ballot, masked by other movement around it.

[(509)Rat]

Sorry, that's not even true because Amherst and Middlebury haven't played yet. I don't think you can look at this and say there's one set in stone order it must be.

You can do what you want with Midd since they have the better record, but Amherst and Williams have identical records and Amherst beat Williams handily. At the very least Amherst should have jumped Williams...

Hoops Fan sort of proves my point. There is very little consistency in how 1-25 appear to have been determined this week. NCC gets a pass because they are banged up and the voters are waiting to see if they'll lose even MORE games. All while Amherst has to "work" for their ranking (because running through their conference and beating the team directly ahead of them isn't enough). And Transy has a tougher sos and a head-to-head win (sounds a lot like IWU v NCC, no?)...

I know there are all kinds of criteria to evaluate a team and different pollsters weight those criteria differently. The problem I have with the poll this week is that no matter which criteria you decide to be most important, you can't justify the ranking of about 1/4 of the teams in the top 25.

[Charles]

I know there are all kinds of criteria to evaluate a team and different pollsters weight those criteria differently. The problem I have with the poll this week is that no matter which criteria you decide to be most important, you can't justify the ranking of about 1/4 of the teams in the top 25.
[/quote]

So I am assuming SOS is not as important in D3hoops top 25?\

[Ralph Turner]

I looked at the Amherst Wms game as a "rivalry game" in which there might be "no holds barred".  Amherst won this one. I'll bet that they play again later in the season.

I look at the SOS numbers in quintiles or deciles rather than an ordinal ranking.  Some regions just have too different variables to count, and Massey will count non-D3 and the NCAA will not for Regional Rankings sake.

UMHB is #20 on Massey (partially helped by the non-D3 schools that the ASC teams play to fill out a 25 game schedule), but they are stuck in the ASC with a paucity of D-3 teams to play who have "D-3 SOS building numbers", kinda the opposite end of the spectrum from the NESCAC.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I know there are all kinds of criteria to evaluate a team and different pollsters weight those criteria differently. The problem I have with the poll this week is that no matter which criteria you decide to be most important, you can't justify the ranking of about 1/4 of the teams in the top 25.

So I am assuming SOS is not as important in D3hoops top 25?\
[/quote]

You are assuming a lot... further more, the only SOS is a flawed system at Massey. There are 25 voters considering things differently and SOS of any kind, W/L, opponents, road vs. home, injuries, rivalries, etc. play factors...

[Titan Q]

As I posted earlier, I like to see the voters take into account difficult conference road games.  Here is a great example - the final 2 minutes and OT of the North Central @ Wheaton game Saturday.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kppJLcdU9ys

I think most would agree that playing in an atmosphere like this has an impact on the game.

[smedindy]

OBJECTION! Counsel is leading the witness...

[Pat Coleman]

Sorry, that's not even true because Amherst and Middlebury haven't played yet. I don't think you can look at this and say there's one set in stone order it must be.

You can do what you want with Midd since they have the better record, but Amherst and Williams have identical records and Amherst beat Williams handily. At the very least Amherst should have jumped Williams...

Except then Williams beat Middlebury, which is the kind of win Amherst doesn't have. And yes, Williams and Amherst will play again this year as part of their regular season schedule.

I think our voters see SOS as extremely important. Otherwise, why are there so many four-loss teams in the Top 25, while Albertus Magnus, with one loss to a D-III team, is out? Why was Middebury not only not No. 1, but slipping before its loss?

[Charles]

Sorry, that's not even true because Amherst and Middlebury haven't played yet. I don't think you can look at this and say there's one set in stone order it must be.

You can do what you want with Midd since they have the better record, but Amherst and Williams have identical records and Amherst beat Williams handily. At the very least Amherst should have jumped Williams...

Except then Williams beat Middlebury, which is the kind of win Amherst doesn't have. And yes, Williams and Amherst will play again this year as part of their regular season schedule.

I think our voters see SOS as extremely important. Otherwise, why are there so many four-loss teams in the Top 25, while Albertus Magnus, with one loss to a D-III team, is out? Why was Middebury not only not No. 1, but slipping before its loss?

So how does that explain WPI?

[Pat Coleman]

Sorry, that's not even true because Amherst and Middlebury haven't played yet. I don't think you can look at this and say there's one set in stone order it must be.

You can do what you want with Midd since they have the better record, but Amherst and Williams have identical records and Amherst beat Williams handily. At the very least Amherst should have jumped Williams...

Except then Williams beat Middlebury, which is the kind of win Amherst doesn't have. And yes, Williams and Amherst will play again this year as part of their regular season schedule.

I think our voters see SOS as extremely important. Otherwise, why are there so many four-loss teams in the Top 25, while Albertus Magnus, with one loss to a D-III team, is out? Why was Middebury not only not No. 1, but slipping before its loss?

So how does that explain WPI?

Quite well, actually. KS's strength of schedule calculations have them at .556, which might sound high but is actually average for a New England contender. And anecdotally, take a look at their schedule: no NESCAC teams, no Brandeis. Quality win against Rhode Island College and last two are wins against key contenders in their conference, which helped give them some legitimacy.

[Greek Tragedy]

Quite well, actually. KS's strength of schedule calculations have them at .556, which might sound high but is actually average for a New England contender. And anecdotally, take a look at their schedule: no NESCAC teams, no Brandeis. Quality win against Rhode Island College and last two are wins against key contenders in their conference, which helped give them some legitimacy.

I'm not really sure I follow.  I'm guessing you say this because the NESCAC teams have horrible SOSs...Brandeis has a respectable 38 though.  RIC's is 219.

[Pat Coleman]

No, actually my point being that WPI hasn't played anyone from the best conference in the region and hasn't played ranked Brandeis either. So WPI's schedule doesn't look that good in the eyes of a voter.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I know there are all kinds of criteria to evaluate a team and different pollsters weight those criteria differently. The problem I have with the poll this week is that no matter which criteria you decide to be most important, you can't justify the ranking of about 1/4 of the teams in the top 25.

So I am assuming SOS is not as important in D3hoops top 25?\
[/quote]


SOS is a tough indicator given the regionalization of d3.  I've gone over this every season, but SOS in the NE region is inflated because of so many teams and conferences.  A team can be 20-5 in the NECC without having played anyone of note (although teams with decent records in their own right).  You can really load up on easy wins over teams with good records in the NE.

It's just not possible to do in other regions.

Catholic and Wesley and St. Mary's in the eastern part of the country have to work much harder to get a decent schedule.  The NESCAC schools have the distinct advantage of scheduling to ability.  When Williams has a down year, they can schedule easier teams and keep their SOS, if they're careful about it.

Those sorts of things are more difficult in other places.

Albertus has a terrible schedule and they're winning close games against absolutely terrible teams.  That scares me.

WPI is winning, but they're really beating mid-level teams.  They don't have a signature win.  They have a history and a reputation, so people are giving them respect - but the schedule hasn't proven itself out yet.

Middlebury was the same way.  I was shocked they kept it close at Williams.  That one game changed a lot of perceptions.


And for Sager - when I say the CCIW is stronger this year, I simply mean that they're going four, maybe five deep this year.  That hasn't happened in a while.

[sac]

And for Sager - when I say the CCIW is stronger this year, I simply mean that they're going four, maybe five deep this year.  That hasn't happened in a while.

Last year in the CCIW

No. Cent          12-2
Wheaton          11-3
Ill. Wes            10-4
Augustana         9-5
Carthage           6-8

Carthage beat Wheaton, and lost OT games to Augustana and NCC. In total 7 of their 8 conference losses came at the hands of the 4 teams above them all by single-digits.  They lost their last 3 conference games.

It's not really that different I don't think