Top 25 talk

[GnacBballFan]

those conferences were all stil ranked in2009,, still waiting for a legit explanation on basketball terms why stoclkton would be highly ranked in 2009 and not inj 2013 on an appearant great season working out?

because its 2014 and not 2009?

we have a winner!

[John Gleich]

in 10 days from now, When Stockton is standing at 16-2, you'll understand

A few quick points...

1) I think you're putting too much stock in the d3hoops.com Top 25. As much as it is the preeminent ranking of D3 basketball, when you truly boil it down (and this conversation has practically boiled it dry), it's the opinion of 25 coaches, SID's, and media members. It isn't the opinion of a single person. And when they have taken a look at Richard Stockton, compared to the other 411 teams in the country, a few have placed them in the top 25, but not all.  Even the ones who have, have likely placed them fairly low in the top 25 (probably all the 23-25 range, unless a single voter voted them in at 12 and they were off every other ballot, or something similar).

But, in the end, it's just a poll. It has no bearing on ANY post season selections, seeding, hosting, or the like. It's for fun, along the same lines that each of the student athletes is playing for the love of the game and not for a scholarship.

2) One of the main differences that has been cited between the 2009 version of RS and the 2013 version is the schedule:

Stockton was also 27-2 entering the NCAA tournament that year and had played teams like Middlebury (L), Widener (W), Carnegie Mellon (W), and Scranton (W) in out of conference play. That was a far better schedule than this season's. The conference was also better. You had Montclair State and William Paterson with 20+ win seasons.

Another difference was that RS was ranked in the preseason. They were "on the RADAR" before the season even began. That meant that, after an 8-1 start, they jumped in at #23. But they only played 3 games during December... while other teams played more, and lost around them. So, through matriculation, they rose, even though they only won 3 games in 4 weeks, all the way up to #13.

After they lost their second game in the first week of January, they won 12 straight games to be 25-2 going into the NCAA tournament. After playing tougher teams than they've played this year.

3) RS may be as good as you think they are. They may be a top 25 team. But, it's better to be UNDERRATED and prove everyone wrong (i.e. keep winning) than it is to be OVERRATED and prove them wrong (start losing).

That brings me to my final point.

4) Similar to #1, it's just a poll. If you think you should be ranked, but you're not, then win the games on your schedule and play into a ranking. That's the only way that any team will become ranked. Prove that you're one of the top 6% in the land.

When it gets down to it, talk is cheap. Just go out and play and prove who is the better team. If it's you, great. If it isn't you, learn from it, get better, and hope to have a chance at seeing that team (or better teams) down the line... and do what you need to do to win.

[sac]

I don't know why but I'll try this tact.  Here's the 2009 poll progression of Richard Stockton compared to this season

Pre-S   unranked  #37
Poll 1   unranked  #28
Poll 2   #23
Poll 3   #20
Poll 4   #14
Poll 5   #13
Poll 6   #14                                   (January 11)
Poll 7   #13
Poll 8   #12
Poll 9   #10
Poll 10 #9
Poll 11 #10
Poll 12 #10
Poll 13 #6
Final    #5

2014
Pre-S   unranked #50
Poll 1   unranked #56
Poll 2   unranked #46
Poll 3   unranked no votes
Poll 4   unranked #36
Poll 5   unranked no votes

Well it looks to me like a lot of it has to do with where Stockton started the season in the pollsters eyes.  In 2009 #37.  They made their way into the top 25 relatively quickly for a team that started in that position.  Their first loss actually moved them up the poll.  Their second loss only cost them 1 spot in the poll because so many other teams around them lost that same week.

This year Stockton is starting from a much lower position #50, which mean maybe only a couple of the 25 voters have them on the ballot which means they have to do quite a bit more to convince those 23 other voters or so to vote for them.  Plus it looks as if the "others receiving votes" crowd is much larger this year.  So the votes are being spread around to more teams, a sign of indecision.

Stockton isn't going to be ranked any time soon even if they win a few games, its just the way poll dynamics are going to work this year.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Let's also remember that Richard Stockton had made a deep run in the NCAA tournament in 2008... putting them on the radar in the preseason poll the following season. The last two years... 20 win seasons but no NCAA tournament berth. Harder to be recognized in the preseason when you don't have a resume to build from.

[frodotwo]

I get all that. But think a moment,........ if you reversed their respective conferences, put Amherst in the NJAC and Stockton in Amherst's conference the past 10 years

with the high seeds available Amherst has gotten, it is a self running machine,
in Amhersts conference, the positions would be reversed

Since like they 86 or 87 season Stockton has averaged 19 wins a year,.... put them in Amhersts conference that jumps to 22-23 wins a year in regular season

Then we are talking about high ranking in the ncaa, and high seeding in the ncaa,.. giving you a shot at a national title every year

i see it clearly

and it isnt just amherst and the new england smalls

However , I respect teams like St Thomas, who I think can beat Stevens Point this year

Every once in a while the NJAC  has a team that would compete in any conference, and I believe Stockton is that team this year

12/21/13  UWSP 75  St. Thomas 62

I think any number of teams can beat Stevens Point as long as they outplay them and outscore them.   

[Greek Tragedy]

ok, but Stocktons 2nd loss in the season, in 2008/2009, in the middle of the regular season, to )TCNJ  (formerly Trenton State), that season, didnt drop them that much , but to only between ranking 15-20.

Unless you are Stevens Point this season, you probably are not going undefeated.

Alot of the teams that have votes, have bad home loses, un-like Stockton

Of the top 25

Worse I can find:

Ohio Wesleyan with a neutral court loss to La Verne(5-9) (2nd game of the season)
St. Mary's loss to DeSales (8-6)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

ok, but Stocktons 2nd loss in the season, in 2008/2009, in the middle of the regular season, to )TCNJ  (formerly Trenton State), that season, didnt drop them that much , but to only between ranking 15-20.

Unless you are Stevens Point this season, you probably are not going undefeated.

Alot of the teams that have votes, have bad home loses, un-like Stockton

Of the top 25

Worse I can find:

Ohio Wesleyan with a neutral court loss to La Verne(5-9) (2nd game of the season)
St. Mary's loss to DeSales (8-6)

Of the ORV... here's every home loss (I didn't include Oswego because they lost this week and won't get any votes next week)

Chris Newport: Emory (9-3), Wesley (12-1)
Whitworth: Colorado College (9-2)
Marietta: Wooster (13-1)
DePauw: Rose-Hulman (11-3)
Dickinson: Juniata (11-3)
Springfield: Hampden-Sydney [OT] (9-5), WPI (13-1)

Hope: Illinois Wesleyan (13-2)
Babson: Amherst (11-2), Springfield [OT] (11-3)
Calvin: Cornerstone [NAIA] (15-3), Carthage (10-5), Hope (8-6)
UW-Platteville: St Olaf (9-4)
Stevenson: Birmingham Southern (7-5)

8 teams have no home losses: Brockport St, Emory, William Paterson, Texas-Dallas, Richard Stockton, NYU, Dubuque, St Vincent

[hplc2222]

you missed stockton was ranked 23 2 weeks ago

[gordonmann]

still waiting for a legit explanation on basketball terms why stoclkton would be highly ranked in 2009 and not inj 2013 on an appearant great season working out?

When Stockton made its run to the final in 2009, the NJAC was still considered one of the stronger conferences in Division III, based in part its performance in the NCAA tournament.  The conference went 8-5 in the NCAA tournament (.615) with four Sweet 16 appearances from 2004 - 2008.  Pretty good.

Since 2009, the NJAC has gone 0-8 in the NCAA tournament.  The NJAC hasn't won an NCAA touranment game since Stockton defeated Franklin & Marshall in 2009 Final Four. 

More than that, the NJAC has had a nationally ranked team lose at home or on a neutral floor to an unranked team from one of Division III's weakest conferences in the first round of the last four NCAA tournaments.  Here are those results showing the ranking of the opponent's conference according to non-conference winning percentage last year.

2013: #15 Ramapo loses to Morrisville State (NEAC, 42nd of 43 conferences for out-of-conference winning percentage)

2012: #12 William Paterson loses to Becker (NECC, 43rd of 43 conferences)

2011: "30th" Ramapo lost to Johnson & Wales (NAC, 40th of 43 conferences)

Ramapo had the fifth highest vote of teams outside the Top 25.

2010: #7 William Paterson lost to Albertus Magnus (GNAC, 36th of 43 conferences)

In all of these cases, the teams that beat the NJAC's best squad were not only unranked.  Those NJAC beaters didn't receive a single Top 25 vote in the poll immediately before the NCAA tournament in any of those years.  So not one voter in any year thought the team that was playing the NJAC's best team was a Top 25 team.  And the NJAC lost to those teams every time.

There's a very strong correlation between conferences that win the NCAA tournament and conferences whose teams are ranked in the Top 25.  Until the NJAC wins games in the tournament, they are not going to get as much love in the Top 25 rankings.

[magicman]

I don't know why but I'll try this tact.  Here's the 2009 poll progression of Richard Stockton compared to this season

Pre-S   unranked  #37
Poll 1   unranked  #28
Poll 2   #23
Poll 3   #20
Poll 4   #14
Poll 5   #13
Poll 6   #14                                   (January 11)
Poll 7   #13
Poll 8   #12
Poll 9   #10
Poll 10 #9
Poll 11 #10
Poll 12 #10
Poll 13 #6
Final    #5

2014
Pre-S   unranked #50
Poll 1   unranked #56
Poll 2   unranked #46
Poll 3   unranked no votes
Poll 4   unranked #36
Poll 5   unranked no votes ranked #23  and in the latest poll week 6 Stockton has dropped down to #36

Well it looks to me like a lot of it has to do with where Stockton started the season in the pollsters eyes.  In 2009 #37.  They made their way into the top 25 relatively quickly for a team that started in that position.  Their first loss actually moved them up the poll.  Their second loss only cost them 1 spot in the poll because so many other teams around them lost that same week.

This year Stockton is starting from a much lower position #50, which mean maybe only a couple of the 25 voters have them on the ballot which means they have to do quite a bit more to convince those 23 other voters or so to vote for them.  Plus it looks as if the "others receiving votes" crowd is much larger this year.  So the votes are being spread around to more teams, a sign of indecision.

Stockton isn't going to be ranked any time soon even if they win a few games, its just the way poll dynamics are going to work this year.

sac,

some slight corrections.

[realist]

Mark Twain — 'Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.'

[sac]

I don't know why but I'll try this tact.  Here's the 2009 poll progression of Richard Stockton compared to this season

Pre-S   unranked  #37
Poll 1   unranked  #28
Poll 2   #23
Poll 3   #20
Poll 4   #14
Poll 5   #13
Poll 6   #14                                   (January 11)
Poll 7   #13
Poll 8   #12
Poll 9   #10
Poll 10 #9
Poll 11 #10
Poll 12 #10
Poll 13 #6
Final    #5

2014
Pre-S   unranked #50
Poll 1   unranked #56
Poll 2   unranked #46
Poll 3   unranked no votes
Poll 4   unranked #36
Poll 5   unranked no votes ranked #23  and in the latest poll week 6 Stockton has dropped down to #36

Well it looks to me like a lot of it has to do with where Stockton started the season in the pollsters eyes.  In 2009 #37.  They made their way into the top 25 relatively quickly for a team that started in that position.  Their first loss actually moved them up the poll.  Their second loss only cost them 1 spot in the poll because so many other teams around them lost that same week.

This year Stockton is starting from a much lower position #50, which mean maybe only a couple of the 25 voters have them on the ballot which means they have to do quite a bit more to convince those 23 other voters or so to vote for them.  Plus it looks as if the "others receiving votes" crowd is much larger this year.  So the votes are being spread around to more teams, a sign of indecision.

Stockton isn't going to be ranked any time soon even if they win a few games, its just the way poll dynamics are going to work this year.

sac,

some slight corrections.

Thanks I had a devil of time keeping Stockton and William Patterson separate in my head.

I don't think it changes my conclusion much, Stockton started from a much lower position in a more difficult poll environment this year.  It looks like at #23 Stockton is really only 3 weeks off their 2009 pace in the polls, which I think I pointed out had lots of movement because of several losses each week.

[hplc2222]

Will Wheaton beat Illinois Wesleyan today? and if not, and they drop to 6 losses, will they drop out of the Top 25?

[hplc2222]

34 teams with no more than 2 losses
(4 teams in top 25 have 3 losses, 1 team has 5)

undefeated
UW Stevens Point 15-0-------#1
Cabrini 13-0------------------ #3
SUNY Purchase 11-0---- ----#17
Dubuque 14-0-------------- -#40
Husson 12-0---------------- --no votes

1 loss
Wooster 13-1------------------- #2
WPI 13-1 -----------------------#5
St Norbert 12-1---------------- #12
Wesley 12-1 --------------------#14
Messiah 12-1---------------- ---#15
Bowdoin 12-1------------------ #19
Albertus Magnus -11-1-------- #23
Oglethorpe 13-1--------------- #24
Brockport State 10-1----- ----#28
Texas Dallas 11-1------------- #35

2 loss
Illinois Wesleyan 13-2-------  #4
Amherst 12-2----------------  #6
Washington U 11-2---------   #7
UW  Whitewater 13-2-------  #8
Wittenberg 12-2-------------  #9
Williams 12-2------------- -- #10
St Thomas 11-2------------  #11
Augustana 13-2------------- #13
Mary Wahington 12-2--------#20
Dickinson 12-2-------------- #33
Richard Stockton 12-2------#36
NYU 11-2-------------------- #37
St Vincent 13-2---------- -- #42
Staten Island 12-2 ------------ no votes
Mount Union 11-2 --------------no votes
Genesco State 9-2 --------------no votes
Grinnel 11-2 -------------------- no votes
Hibert 11-2 --------------------- no votes
Penn State Behrend 11-2 ----- no votes

[Mr. Ypsi]

34 teams with no more than 2 losses
(3 teams in top 25 have 3 losses, 1 team has 5)

undefeated
UW Stevens Point 15-0-------#1
Cabrini 13-0------------------ #3
SUNY Purchase 11-0---- ----#17
Dubuque 14-0-------------- -#40
Husson 12-0---------------- --no votes

1 loss
Wooster 13-1------------------- #2
WPI 13-1 -----------------------#5
St Norbert 12-1---------------- #12
Wesley 12-1 --------------------#14
Messiah 12-1---------------- ---#15
Bowdoin 12-1------------------ #19
Albertus Magnus -11-1-------- #23
Oglethorpe 13-1--------------- #24
Brockport State 10-1----- ----#28
Texas Dallas 11-1------------- #35

2 loss
Illinois Wesleyan 13-2-------  #4
Amherst 12-2----------------  #6
Washington U 11-2---------   #7
UW  Whitewater 13-2-------  #8
Wittenberg 12-2-------------  #9
Williams 12-2------------- -- #10
St Thomas 11-2------------  #11
Augustana 13-2------------- #13
Mary Wahington 12-2--------#20
Dickinson 12-2-------------- #33
Richard Stockton 12-2------#36
NYU 11-2-------------------- #37
St Vincent 13-2---------- -- #42
Staten Island 12-2 ------------ no votes
Mount Union 11-2 --------------no votes
Genesco State 9-2 --------------no votes
Grinnel 11-2 -------------------- no votes
Hibert 11-2 --------------------- no votes
Penn State Behrend 11-2 ----- no votes

The bolded statement is misleading - Wheaton had four losses at the time the poll was done.