Top 25 talk

[KnightSlappy]

St. Norbert is way too high. Just because teams around them are losing DOESN'T mean that a) that team needs to drop b) teams ranked lower need to be bumped up in the poll.


It's the old matriculation again, rearing its ugly head.  When a team, like St. Norbert, whallops its conference, it should rise to a certain level... say, 15, or 12, but then it should stop, irregardless of what happens to the teams around it.

St. Norbert has played one good team - UW Whitewater - and they lost.  They've played, and beaten, their conference, but that's not saying a whole lot.

Ergo, they should only rise to a certain point, and then stop. I get that they can't help their schedule (... well, sort of, but the MWC is a difficult environment, with only 5 non-con games allowed) but they shouldn't be rewarded for beating a bad schedule, beyond a certain point.

If they're that good, then let them make some noise in the NCAA tournament. Nobody from the MWC has done that since Lawrence was undefeated and ranked #1 in the country back in 05-06.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on St. Norbert and I'm not remember Lawrence well enough. But if you go through a season undefeated, no matter how bad your conference, it's hard to gauge exactly how good that team really is.


But, in my mind, there's no chance that St. Norbert is really better than Amherst, Williams, and Wooster.

Don't you think destroying said weak competition counts for something? I think this is where Massey provides a good sniff test, a computer system that has no regard for ordinal rank and therefore no propensity to "float up" a team just because a few teams around them lost.

Massey has St. Norbert #9 which means #8 probably isn't unreasonable.

[Gregory Sager]

Having seen St. Norbert firsthand, I think that the Green Knights are legit within the lower reaches of the top ten. But I wouldn't put them any higher than that.

[Pat Coleman]

This week sort of showed me that St. Norbert has hit its ceiling with the voters. More concerned about the rent on Wesley being too damn high.

[Mr. Ypsi]

If they're that good, let them make some noise in the NCAA tournament.  The MWC hasn't done that since 2006, when undefeated Lawrence was ranked #1.  - approximate quote from John Gleich

Even then, they didn't make all that much noise - IWU ousted them in the third round in their own gym.   (IWU has a proud history of doing that in the gyms of #1 or #2 ranked teams, most recently #1 Hope in round two in 2012.  I haven't researched this in detail, but in just the last 10-15 years, I can recall victories @ #1 Chicago, @ #2 Hanover, and I believe we've done it in St. Louis to Wash U a couple of times [unless those were regular season games I'm remembering].  Alas, we've also lost some we should have won. )

[Greek Tragedy]

I knew when the Vikings undefeated season came up, it was only a matter of time before Ypsi would chime in and remind us (not that we needed it) who knocked them off their perch!    

I do believe Lawrence dominated the first half (I was there with swampgoon) and were up double-digits at the break. But of course, the Titans came back to win. They beat Puget Sound the next night to advance.

Not to defend the MWC or to make excuses for their poor record in the NCAAs, but its tough to get out of the first weekend when the MWC rep is usually matched up with a top WIAC or CCIW school. Its not like they get to play the old Lake Michigan Conference rep or the IIAC team. I realize you have to play the best to be the best, but they just seem to get them the 1st weekend.

[nescac1]

I've never seen St. Norbert but was curious and looked them up ... and for those who have seen them, just how good is Kam Cerroni?  A senior D1 transfer with insane shooting percentages ... 58/58/91!  Although based on stats he doesn't do that much more than shoot threes (71 of 91 fgs are from downtown), a volume shooter who can hit threes at that rate and who can't be fouled seems like he would make that team dangerous vs. anyone ...

[Mr. Ypsi]

I knew when the Vikings undefeated season came up, it was only a matter of time before Ypsi would chime in and remind us (not that we needed it) who knocked them off their perch!    

I do believe Lawrence dominated the first half (I was there with swampgoon) and were up double-digits at the break. But of course, the Titans came back to win. They beat Puget Sound the next night to advance.

Not to defend the MWC or to make excuses for their poor record in the NCAAs, but its tough to get out of the first weekend when the MWC rep is usually matched up with a top WIAC or CCIW school. Its not like they get to play the old Lake Michigan Conference rep or the IIAC team. I realize you have to play the best to be the best, but they just seem to get them the 1st weekend.

But, of course!  AND it gave me an opportunity to crow about some of the other scalps on our wall!   In fairness to Lawrence, earlier that year IWU had been unanimously #1 (before running into to strong headwinds in the CCIW), and by the FF was predicted by d3hoops to win it all (darned Va Wes! ).

Except for years the committee gets really creative, it is not just tough for the MWC rep to advance - teams from both the CCIW and WIAC generally have to face off way too early.

[Greek Tragedy]

Point loses 81-76 in OT at Whitewater, thus opening the door for Richard Stockton to take over #1 next week.

[monsoon]

Point loses 81-76 in OT at Whitewater, thus opening the door for Richard Stockton to take over #1 next week.

+K

[smedindy]

St. Norbert is way too high. Just because teams around them are losing DOESN'T mean that a) that team needs to drop b) teams ranked lower need to be bumped up in the poll.


It's the old matriculation again, rearing its ugly head.  When a team, like St. Norbert, whallops its conference, it should rise to a certain level... say, 15, or 12, but then it should stop, irregardless of what happens to the teams around it.

St. Norbert has played one good team - UW Whitewater - and they lost.  They've played, and beaten, their conference, but that's not saying a whole lot.

Ergo, they should only rise to a certain point, and then stop. I get that they can't help their schedule (... well, sort of, but the MWC is a difficult environment, with only 5 non-con games allowed) but they shouldn't be rewarded for beating a bad schedule, beyond a certain point.

If they're that good, then let them make some noise in the NCAA tournament. Nobody from the MWC has done that since Lawrence was undefeated and ranked #1 in the country back in 05-06.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on St. Norbert and I'm not remember Lawrence well enough. But if you go through a season undefeated, no matter how bad your conference, it's hard to gauge exactly how good that team really is.


But, in my mind, there's no chance that St. Norbert is really better than Amherst, Williams, and Wooster.

Don't you think destroying said weak competition counts for something? I think this is where Massey provides a good sniff test, a computer system that has no regard for ordinal rank and therefore no propensity to "float up" a team just because a few teams around them lost.

Massey has St. Norbert #9 which means #8 probably isn't unreasonable.

I wish people would stop being so provincial and look at the entire D3 universe. They have a 194 SOS ranking in Massey. But remember that's in the UPPER HALF! And a 'good team' is probably one in the upper 1/3 of D3. They've played a couple of teams in that realm. And with the emphasis on regionality in D3 they're always going to have a tough draw in the post-season. But who is to say they wouldn't do very well in another region?

A team shouldn't stop moving up unless it is proven that they are NOT all that. They are doing exactly what they are supposed to be doing, and dare I say, doing what almost every 'elite' team in D3 would do to their schedule. There should be no ceiling or floor on any team based on 'rep' or what not. The data will work out where a team should be on merit, not rep.

And how can you MOVE UP in the poll on post season success when it's the CURRENT season that we're dealing with? Past post seasons should NOT be prologue IMHO. Take each year as a separate data set.

All that I have St. Norbert at 8th in my Poster's Poll ballot. But if they keep winning like they have been and others flail, they'll move up.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I know the NCAA doesn't like it, but I do take margin of victory into account.  Early in the season, you had teams like Dubuque and Husson undefeated in terrible conferences - plus winning games by single digits.  St. Norbert and, to a lesser extent, Albertus Magnus - were putting up good records against bad opponents, but if you're beating bad teams by 20 and 30 points, that should count for something.  It's still basketball.  Even Point isn't going to beat teams near the top of the MWC by more than that.

Yeah, they have something to prove, but winning those games by big margin proves they at least deserve a spot in the conversation.  (That's part of the reason I like St. Olaf.  They're winning games forcefully in a conference generally better than the MWC.)

[GnacBballFan]

Relatively new to the d3 scene. Really following it hard (not just my alum this yr like I have for 6 yrs, but d3 hoops as a whole). And I love reading the insight from you guys. However, one thing I see a lot of, that really has become a pet peeve I guess, is how years past always seem to come in to play a tad with top 25 relevance. In this case St. Norbert. The way the top 25 should work, is if you keep winning and others keep losing you move up. Now of course there are other things that go into it, but we hp on here talking about Richard Stockton and there runner up finish yrs ago. And we disclaimed it since it is 2013-2014 season, and rightfully so imo. But I just seem to see years past and postseason success come into play if a team is "real" or not this yr and don't agree with it. Dave mchugh hasn't trusted my alum, albertus, this yr bc of their sos(which I get), and bc he's been burned by them in yrs past. The latter part to me I disagree with, it's a totally different team from yrs past. And in the case of st Norbert, I believe they had a ton of starters returning as well as a D1 transfer from GB come in, so who is to say they have a certain ceiling as far as the top 25 goes? Again I think your guys insight is great, just my two cents on the top 25

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	624	UW-Stevens Point	20-1	LOST at #7 UW-Whitewater, 76-81
#2	600	Cabrini	18-0	02/03 vs. #6 Wesley postponed; 02/06 vs. Immaculata
#3	556	WPI	18-1	02/06 vs. Emerson; 02/08 at #43 Babson
#4	513	Washington U.	16-2	02/07 vs. Rochester; 02/09 vs. Emory
#5	479	Illinois Wesleyan	17-3	def. #23 Augustana, 84-69; 02/08 vs. Elmhurst
#6	471	Wesley	17-1	02/03 at #2 Cabrini postponed; 02/06 at York (Pa.); 02/08 vs. T#32 Christopher Newport
#7	467	UW-Whitewater	18-3	def. #1 UW-Stevens Point, 81-76; 02/08 at UW-Superior
#8	446	St. Norbert	18-1	won at Lawrence, 79-69
#9	444	Amherst	18-3	won at Lasell, 95-74; 02/07 vs. Connecticut College; 02/08 vs. Wesleyan
#10	396	Williams	17-3	won at Stevens, 83-68; 02/07 vs. Bates; 02/08 vs. Tufts
#11	393	Wooster	17-3	def. Kenyon, 86-56; 02/08 at Denison
#12	348	Mary Washington	18-2	won at T#39 St. Mary's (Md.), 67-61; 02/08 vs. Salisbury
#13	309	Ohio Wesleyan	16-4	LOST to #22 Wittenberg, 55-66; 02/08 at Kenyon
#14	282	St. Thomas	17-3	won at Hamline, 89-53; def. Bethel, 65-56; 02/08 vs. St. Mary's (Minn.)
#15	241	Brockport State	16-1	02/07 vs. Plattsburgh State; 02/08 vs. Potsdam State
#16	207	Virginia Wesleyan	15-5	LOST to Eastern Mennonite, 82-85; 02/08 at Randolph
#17	182	Messiah	16-3	LOST at Lycoming, 73-81; 02/08 at Arcadia
#18	172	Bowdoin	18-2	def. Plymouth State, 58-49; 02/09 at Middlebury
#19	157	Albertus Magnus	17-2	02/06 at Anna Maria; 02/08 vs. Mount Ida
#20	153	SUNY-Purchase	17-1	def. Mount St. Mary, 76-70; 02/08 vs. SUNY-Maritime; 02/09 at Yeshiva
#21	92	Whitworth	15-4	02/07 at Puget Sound; 02/08 at Pacific Lutheran
#22	90	Wittenberg	16-4	won at #13 Ohio Wesleyan, 66-55; 02/08 at Oberlin
#23	74	Augustana	15-6	LOST at #5 Illinois Wesleyan, 69-84; 02/08 at Carthage
#24	60	Texas-Dallas	17-2	02/06 at Mississippi College; 02/08 at Louisiana College
#25	57	Centre	15-3	02/07 vs. #34 Oglethorpe; 02/09 vs. Berry

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	49	Dubuque	19-1	won at Wartburg, 83-65; 02/08 at Simpson
#27	36	Calvin	15-5	LOST at T#39 Hope, 65-83; 02/08 at Adrian
#28	28	Staten Island	18-2	won at Lehman, 86-76; 02/06 at St. Joseph's (Bklyn.); 02/08 at John Jay
T#29	24	Randolph-Macon	16-4	won at Bridgewater (Va.), 76-60; 02/08 vs. Lynchburg
T#29	24	Eastern Connecticut	15-5	LOST at Wesleyan, 62-68; 02/08 at Mass-Boston
#31	18	Marietta	15-4	02/06 at Muskingum; 02/08 vs. Heidelberg
T#32	16	Christopher Newport	14-6	def. Southern Virginia, 91-76; LOST at Salisbury, 58-83; 02/08 at #6 Wesley
T#32	16	Mount Union	16-3	won at Baldwin Wallace, 104-98; 02/08 at Otterbein
#34	14	Oglethorpe	16-3	02/07 at #25 Centre; 02/09 at Sewanee
#35	12	Geneseo State	14-3	02/07 vs. Potsdam State; 02/08 vs. Plattsburgh State
#36	9	St. Vincent	17-3	LOST at Thiel, 121-124; 02/08 at Grove City
#37	7	Wheaton (Ill.)	15-6	def. Carthage, 87-54; 02/08 vs. Millikin
#38	6	Scranton	17-3	won at Merchant Marine, 75-63; 02/08 vs. Susquehanna
T#39	5	Hope	14-6	def. Kalamazoo, 76-61; def. #27 Calvin, 83-65; 02/08 vs. Albion
T#39	5	St. Mary's (Md.)	14-6	LOST to #12 Mary Washington, 61-67; 02/08 at Frostburg State
T#39	5	DePauw	14-5	02/07 vs. Allegheny; 02/08 vs. Hiram
#42	3	Rose-Hulman	16-4	won at Earlham, 65-54; 02/08 at Manchester
#43	2	Babson	14-5	02/06 vs. Wheaton (Mass.); 02/08 vs. #3 WPI
T#44	1	Rutgers-Newark	15-5	02/05 at William Paterson postponed; 02/08 vs. TCNJ
T#44	1	Springfield	14-5	02/06 vs. MIT; 02/08 at Wheaton (Mass.)

[Pat Coleman]

The way the top 25 should work, is if you keep winning and others keep losing you move up.

Well, honestly, that isn't really the case, though. If Albertus or Husson keep winning, there aren't teams on that schedule that merit them moving up. Whereas if someone such as Whitewater  loses a game to a ranked opponent or a particularly strong team in its particularly strong conference, that doesn't mean they have to move down.

What worries me about St. Norbert is the primary point in their favor is a loss. It is not a bad loss, by any stretch, but it's a loss. Best out of conference win is UW-Oshkosh, sixth in the WIAC. A decent win, but there's some gap in there. St. Norbert could be reasonably thought to be slotted between the third- and fifth-best team in the WIAC.

[smedindy]

The way the top 25 should work, is if you keep winning and others keep losing you move up.

Well, honestly, that isn't really the case, though. If Albertus or Husson keep winning, there aren't teams on that schedule that merit them moving up. Whereas if someone such as Whitewater  loses a game to a ranked opponent or a particularly strong team in its particularly strong conference, that doesn't mean they have to move down.

What worries me about St. Norbert is the primary point in their favor is a loss. It is not a bad loss, by any stretch, but it's a loss. Best out of conference win is UW-Oshkosh, sixth in the WIAC. A decent win, but there's some gap in there. St. Norbert could be reasonably thought to be slotted between the third- and fifth-best team in the WIAC.

The data on Massey shows that they WOULD be the #3 team in the WIAC, Pat! (LAX is fourth at #53 and Platteville is fifth at #57)