Top 25 talk

[Greek Tragedy]

Incidentally Cabrini's game against Immaculata, which was postponed from Wednesday to tonight, is now postponed with the make up date TBD.  Cabrini's campus hasn't had power fully restored yet after yesterday's storm.

Scheduled for next Thursday now. They will have a game Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday. Immaculata has a game this weekend already.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Pretty much ends anyone's hopes that Cabrini-Wesley would make up their twice-postponed game (though, I really didn't have hope).

[smedindy]

Cabrini IS the only undefeated team. I may or may not vote them #1 next week in my ballot as it depends on the weekend's result.

Neither Point nor Cabrini play this weekend. Is there someone else you had in mind being #1?

No. But these things interlock with other games and stuff and things.

[smedindy]

Cabrini IS the only undefeated team. I may or may not vote them #1 next week in my ballot as it depends on the weekend's result.

Right. The only question is how many teams would be undefeated against that schedule ... those are the sorts of things a lot of the voters consider.

But power rankings will take that into account. Remember it's not just that they won, it's how they won.

[smedindy]

Pretty much ends anyone's hopes that Cabrini-Wesley would make up their twice-postponed game (though, I really didn't have hope).

They should meet in the tournament then. Make it so, NCAA!

[David Collinge]

I think my quote of "move teams up as they win or lose" came off in the wrong way. I don't simply think teams move up and down based on losses in the sense that #7 beats #6 and they swap spots. I understand there is objectivity and sos(I agreed with this part in my post) that go into the process. What I don't get is when previous yrs are involved and how certain teams/conferences have done in the tourney in yrs past. That's my fault for not making that clear.

Here's my 2c on this question. As has been alluded to in several previous posts, D3 is not as national as D1, Teams tend to play non-conference games against teams in their general area. There are relatively few intersectional games, whereas such games are common in D1. Therefore your average D3 team's record will be heavily dependent on how they stand relative to the other teams in their (for lack of a better term) region. It's much more difficult to compare regions, and consequently teams from different regions. SOS and Massey are tools that can help shed light on these comparisons.

It is true that this year's Albertus (or whoever) is not last year's Albertus. I could argue that, due in large part to the importance of coaching at the D3 level, it's not unreasonable to use last year's result as one factor in gauging this year's team, but I won't. Instead I will argue that, while teams go up and down from one year to the next, regions as a whole tend to stay relatively stable. How good the Mid-Atlantic Region as a whole is vis-a-vis the other regions is likely to be fairly close to how the were last year.

Finally, intersectional games, while rare in the regular season, abound (relatively speaking) in the NCAA tournament, especially as you get deeper in the draw. (Of course, they don't abound nearly as much as some of us would like.)

If you put all of these factors together, what you realize is that there is a certain amount of predictive value in how the members of a conference or region have fared in recent tournaments when considering the prospects of a team this year. Take Richard Stockton, for example. They are running up a good record in the NJAC and Atlantic Region, or so I have been told. What does that mean on a national level? Well, in the recent past, it has meant diddly, as the NJAC teams have gone belly-up in the NCAA tournament despite gaudy records. Does that mean that Stockton State will as well? No, but, well, maybe it does. It does mean that caution should be exercised when getting dazzled by a great record in the Atlantic.

Or look at Cabrini. Brilliant record, crappy conference, mamby-pamby schedule. Are they the bees knees nationally? Well, they were in the national title game two years ago, and a sectional final last year, so they (or a reasonable facsimile thereof) have shown that their game works even when the competition steps up.

[smedindy]

But, when there's enough data, the data will illustrate what you said by basing it on the profiles of the teams played this season. I contend that the data will throw out contenders and pretenders. Last year's Albertus Magnus squad had a horrid Massey profile, for good reason.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

FYI... #3 WPI losses at home to Emerson and #6 Wesley losses on the road to York (Pa.).

[mailsy]

FYI... #3 WPI losses at home to Emerson and #6 Wesley losses on the road to York (Pa.).

By 14!! Losing 62-48.

Do you think the focus on Cabrini(and subsequent postponement) had anything to do with that?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

You never know... possibly... that was actually two games for them that were postponed... tonight's was supposed to be played last night... York County, PA was pretty hammered by the two back-to-back storms. What I saw, they didn't look focused.

By the way... Cabrini will play FOUR games next week!

[sac]

FYI... #3 WPI losses at home to Emerson and #6 Wesley losses on the road to York (Pa.).

Emerson also beat Amherst earlier this year.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yep... it was hard to miss that one as Amherst was #1 at the time .

[sac]

Yep... it was hard to miss that one as Amherst was #1 at the time .

I think you meant Belt^TM holders at the time.

[mailsy]

You never know... possibly... that was actually two games for them that were postponed... tonight's was supposed to be played last night... York County, PA was pretty hammered by the two back-to-back storms. What I saw, they didn't look focused.

By the way... Cabrini will play FOUR games next week!

Yeah. I know.  Monday 2/10 at Cairn(Massey rating #401) who won their second game of the season tonight. Wednesday 2/12 at Centenary(374). They won tonight over Rosemont. Thursday 2/13 vs Immaculata (315) this is the 2x postponement game and finally at Baptist Bible (323) on 2/15 who just lost to Cairn(see above). A loss to any of these teams will drop them in the polls.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'm betting that UWSP will remain #1, though perhaps only winning 15 of the 25 #1 votes.  What say y'all?

I suspect many thought that #3 WPI had floated up to high, and will take the opportunity to drop them precipitously (losing AT HOME to a team that was 10-9 can do that).  Likewise for #6 Wesley, losing (albeit on the road) to a team that was 3-16 can also do that sort of thing.  I'd expect both to fall to the teens.

Recognizing that we still have weekend games, I'll take a stab at a top 5 of UWSP, Cabrini, Wash U, IWU, and UWW.  Though, since IWU destroyed Wash U h-to-h, I have trouble with 3 and 4.  I personally at this moment in time would have 3. IWU, 4. UWW, 5. Wash U.