Top 25 talk

[Greek Tragedy]

As for the Massey stuff... I know what it says and I know what the SOS says, but that is also why I made the comment that those numbers have not indicated just how good Cabrini has been over the last few years.

Cabrini has become one of the top programs in Division III - no doubt.  But at the same time, I don't think things that happened in past seasons should be factored into the Top 25 voting process here in mid/late-February.  Cabrini should be evaluated based on 2013-14 only, and the fact is they have played a weak schedule and have very few "good wins"...certainly not enough good wins to get a free pass for a loss to Baptist Bible.

But that's exactly what some voters do. Take for example our long debate about Richard Stockton. Wasn't part of that argument about NOT voting them into the Top 25 because what the NJAC hasn't done in the NCAAs the last few years. And isn't an argument of some that say, "Well, I voted them into the poll a few times in the past and then got burned by them, that's why I don't vote them now..."

Same goes with the preseason poll. Believe it or not, that poll effects who's in the Top 25 now.

I do agree with you, Bob, that Dave's argument about Cabrini is flawed as the CCIW and the UAA are much better conferences than the CSAC and Massey and the SOS prove that.

[sac]

Put it another way, Cabrini's loss to Baptist Bible was equivalent to #2 Florida losing to UI-Edwardsville.

They wouldn't be #2 anymore after that loss.

[Pat Coleman]

Agreed. It's one thing if AWM didn't play in the game but he scored 21 points, played 29 minutes. Rafferty started. Cabrini anywhere near full strength should win that game, seeing as more than half of Division III would do so.

[smedindy]

Massey DOES show how good Cabrini is. That's a false statement right then and there.

Remember the entire D3 universe is what's being measured. Right now they fell to #17, not just because of the Baptist Bible loss, but after a pedestrian win over Cairn. Still that's in the Top 4% of all teams in D-3 that Massey ranks. Last year they wound up #20 because losses to Keystone and Immaculata and five point wins over Marywood don't help the calculations much at all.

When a team is in the top 4% to 5% of the D-3 universe they are a program of quality and distinction. Where you rank them on that tier is up to you. But don't say the numbers don't show it. They do.

Also, remember that many times a team making the final four gets there by being a good team that catches breaks.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Put it another way, Cabrini's loss to Baptist Bible was equivalent to #2 Florida losing to UI-Edwardsville.

They wouldn't be #2 anymore after that loss.

But that doesn't mean they shouldn't still be #2.  I hope our voters are smarter than the D1 voters.

I dropped Cabrini a couple of spots, but I can see why others wouldn't.  That was hardly the team they'll be trotting out at the end of next week.

[Pat Coleman]

If they do trot out that team and it plays like it should, then I would expect some of our voters, myself included, to move them back up a couple spots. I prefer to reflect what's on the floor right now, though, and that isn't a No. 2 team.

[David Collinge]

You could say that Cabrini played like "#2" against Cairn and Baptist Bible, so...

[GnacBballFan]

As for the Massey stuff... I know what it says and I know what the SOS says, but that is also why I made the comment that those numbers have not indicated just how good Cabrini has been over the last few years.

Cabrini has become one of the top programs in Division III - no doubt.  But at the same time, I don't think things that happened in past seasons should be factored into the Top 25 voting process here in mid/late-February.  Cabrini should be evaluated based on 2013-14 only, and the fact is they have played a weak schedule and have very few "good wins"...certainly not enough good wins to get a free pass for a loss to Baptist Bible.

I'm most confused by you slotting Cabrini #2 after such a horrendous loss, while at the same time making it sound like Illinois Wesleyan and Washington U aren't even decent candidates for that spot:

Yeah, the Titans were knocking on the door of number-two thanks to Cabrini's loss, but I just don't feel they are the second-best team in the country... or even third-best.
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More of the same with the Bears of Washington University. I have stated in past weeks I am nervous with this team this far up in ballot and I know I am not the only one thinking that. Again, had I moved Cabrini down it probably would have resulted in Wash U. moving up to number three and that simply makes me cringe. I like how the Bears are playing and they are rolling away with the UAA title, but I am not sure their conference standing is a sign of how good the Bears are or proves that the rest of the UAA took a step back (or for some more than one) this season.


The CCIW and UAA are the top two conferences this year.  Wash U is the undefeated (so far) champion of the UAA, and with a win Wednesday over North Park, IWU will earn the CCIW title (Wheaton can share that title with a home win over IWU Saturday).  Both teams have several more "good wins" than Cabrini.  The teams that win leagues like the WIAC, UAA, and CCIW are very good.

Just saying - I don't agree with your suggestion that Wash U and IWU are not even good candidates for the #2 spot.

Oh, and thanks for posting your ballot...makes for good conversation here.

This was basically the same point i was trying to make on here about a week and a half ago. That these polls should based on 2013-2014 results. just my opinion, but i agree with you Titan

[sac]

Oswego St.  95 #14Brockport St.  83

Brockport was last weeks East Region #1.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I have been debating whether to re-enter the fray, but I think I need to clear something up. I am in no way keeping Cabrini #2 because of past performance. My point was that in the case of Cabrini, their SOS in the past has not been a direct correlation to just how good a team they really are. Their SOS has been poor each of the last two seasons, but they have proven by going deep in the NCAA tournament (last year on the road the entire time) that their SOS number doesn't actually give you something to knock them on. That is very, very rare... if not unique. There are not many other teams anyone can say have weak SOS numbers and yet we know that number means nothing.

Cabrini has gone toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the country the last two seasons and come out on top in nearly all of them. Thus, when I look at the data, I throw the SOS out when it comes to Cabrini because I don't see that number as being something that actually represents anything for that team. I am not keeping Cabrini #2 because they went to the title game two years ago or they had a hellish road trip all the way to Salem. I have a number of reasons I kept Cabrini #2... SOS was just one I threw out the window in their case.

Which gets me to my next thought, every voter has a ton of reasons to move and place teams accordingly. My reasons are not indicative of Pat's or the other 23. I don't take my job lightly and spend a lot of time each week going over it. I have presented my ideas for where and why I place teams on my ballot, but don't put words in my mouth. You certainly don't have to agree with my decisions... I sometimes don't agree with all of my decisions and could honestly constantly change my mind until the cows come home... but I have a deadline and ultimately I have go with the decision that feels the best... or doesn't feel the worst. Could I regret keeping Cabrini #2? As I stated in the blog... yes - time will tell.

[smedindy]

Of COURSE the SOS doesn't measue how good a team Cabrini is Dave. SOS measures STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, it's not a power ranking. Big difference.

[KnightSlappy]

Of COURSE the SOS doesn't measue how good a team Cabrini is Dave. SOS measures STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, it's not a power ranking. Big difference.

Also, the NCAA's SOS (or any SOS defined as 2/3 OWP and 1/3 OOWP) doesn't necessarily do a good job of defining a team's actual strength of schedule. And WP and SOS would mean much more if you could also add in MOV. But then we're basically back to Massey.

[smedindy]

I wish one of you guys with time on their hands would KenPom this thing. I think some of you do, but publish it with bells and whistles and orangutangs.

I do know it's nigh near impossible to get all of the box scores, etc. because some teams are reluctant or worse.

[KnightSlappy]

I wish one of you guys with time on their hands would KenPom this thing. I think some of you do, but publish it with bells and whistles and orangutangs.

I do know it's nigh near impossible to get all of the box scores, etc. because some teams are reluctant or worse.

I had the spreadsheet started and updated through late January, but it was just too much to keep up with. Having to copy/paste box score data from each game took too much time.

Maybe if we had an army of volunteers chipping in...

[smedindy]

I wish one of you guys with time on their hands would KenPom this thing. I think some of you do, but publish it with bells and whistles and orangutangs.

I do know it's nigh near impossible to get all of the box scores, etc. because some teams are reluctant or worse.

I had the spreadsheet started and updated through late January, but it was just too much to keep up with. Having to copy/paste box score data from each game took too much time.

Maybe if we had an army of volunteers chipping in...

Someone take 3-4 conferences each?