Top 25 talk

[hopefan]

There just isn't any good answers this year... way to many questions from #1 on down.

It is always interesting hearing voter perspective since I do not have the time to follow the other conferences, let alone the UAA, but I figured this was the case when I read the list and noticed Washington University in the Top 10 and Emory in the Top 25.

. 

Wash U may not be the best D3 team in St Louis.... Note nothing against Wash U, but they lost a lot of last year's pie.. Who might be better?  We'll find out when they play Webster...

[Pat Coleman]

Pat, not to sound like a homer cause Lord knows I am but when you say would Albertus be better? My answer is yes. Believe me I am more than happy and excited for this team as pre-season 8th. I think it is a justifiable ranking but when you look at what Albertus returned and what teams like Williams and Point lost is it really that "crazy" to place Albertus ahead of them?

But Junkie, how in the world would we know Albertus is better? Not one of these games is going to prove to a voter that Albertus is top 10 material:

11/15   vs. Lyndon State •   5:30 PM   
11/16   at TBD •   TBA   
@ Richard Stockton Tournament
11/20   vs. Mitchell •   7:00 PM   
11/25   at SUNY-Purchase •   TBA   
12/2   vs. Anna Maria * •   7:00 PM   
12/4   vs. Johnson and Wales * •   7:00 PM   
12/6   at Suffolk * •   3:00 PM   
12/13   vs. New Jersey City •   3:00 PM   
12/15   vs. Western Connecticut •   7:00 PM   
1/6   at Rivier * •   7:00 PM   
1/8   at Norwich * •   7:00 PM   LS V
1/10   vs. St. Joseph's (Maine) * •   3:00 PM   
1/14   at Emmanuel * •   7:30 PM   LS
1/17   vs. Lasell * •   3:00 PM   
1/19   vs. Rivier * •   3:00 PM   
1/24   at St. Joseph's (Maine) * •   2:00 PM   
1/27   vs. Mount Ida * •   7:00 PM   
1/29   vs. Newbury •   7:00 PM   
1/31   vs. Norwich * •   3:00 PM   
2/4   at Lasell * •   7:00 PM   
2/7   vs. Suffolk * •   3:00 PM   
2/10   at Mount Ida * •   6:00 PM   
2/14   at Johnson and Wales * •   TBA   LS
2/17   vs. Emmanuel * •   7:00 PM   
2/21   at Anna Maria * •   3:00 PM   LS

[Greek Tragedy]

As a pessimistic Pointer fan, they are rated way too high considering losing who they did. On the other hand, they could be starting 4 seniors and 1 junior this year. With that said, I don't know if they'll even be the 2nd best team in the WIAC this season.

[Gregory Sager]

There just isn't any good answers this year... way to many questions from #1 on down.

It is always interesting hearing voter perspective since I do not have the time to follow the other conferences, let alone the UAA, but I figured this was the case when I read the list and noticed Washington University in the Top 10 and Emory in the Top 25.

. 

Wash U may not be the best D3 team in St Louis.... Note nothing against Wash U, but they lost a lot of last year's pie.. Who might be better?  We'll find out when they play Webster...

My thinking exactly. And Webster, which returns four starters, the top five scorers, and the top three rebounders from a team that lost a controversial tourney game at Illinois Wesleyan that went right down to the final buzzer, didn't even get a single frickin' point in the poll! And then you've got our most stalwart UWSP fan absolutely horrified that his Pointers are #7, given all the dire predictions in the WIAC room about a dramatic falloff for UWSP this season. Then there's Williams being picked #5, which is going to come as a shock to the NESCAC room (including the Ephs fans -- maybe even especially the Ephs fans); and Illinois Wesleyan and Wheaton are both picked too high, at least by preseason lights. And so on.

So what does this all mean? Well, the fact that sixty different teams received votes is the first clue that there's comparatively little agreement here as compared to past preseasons, as sac pointed out. But I think that D3HoopJunkie nailed it:

Pat, not to sound like a homer cause Lord knows I am but when you say would Albertus be better? My answer is yes. Believe me I am more than happy and excited for this team as pre-season 8th. I think it is a justifiable ranking but when you look at what Albertus returned and what teams like Williams and Point lost is it really that "crazy" to place Albertus ahead of them? Certainly the reputation of these 2 teams precedes them but if we are looking at it from the perspective of what talent and depth teams returned from last years rosters which is what I believe "pre-season" should be ranked on I really feel that Albertus could have been placed ahead of these 2 programs.

(Emphasis mine.)

In a situation in which there really doesn't appear to be any clear-cut consensus (aside from defending champ UWW being the alpha dog), I think that a certain number of pollsters -- not all of them, certainly, and I'm not even sure how many of them do this -- default to brand-name mode and simply go with a familiar program, regardless of whether or not that program is bringing back a team that merits anywhere near where they're picked.

I don't like that method of filling out a ballot, but I can certainly understand it. What I would hope, however, is that the pollsters would be quick to throw out that preseason ballot and start over again from scratch every week for the first few weeks of the season. Pat and I have had an argument off and on for the past fifteen years about the wisdom of having early-season polls at all. While I agree that a preseason poll is a good public relations device, and that having one has probably helped to cement d3hoops.com's reputation as the definitive and most authoritative source of information about NCAA Division III basketball, the truth of the matter is that the preseason poll often ends up becoming a template upon which pollsters base their first in-season poll, rather than sticking to actual results (because, of course, the database of actual results is so limited at that point). Then, of course, the pollsters base the second in-season poll upon the first, which means that it, too, is tainted by the now-thoroughly-obsolete preseason poll. We're generally deep into the season by the time that the preseason-poll effect is finally nullified.

A year like this, in which the preseason poll invites so much skepticism, is a recipe for disaster for the usefulness of the first few in-season polls -- unless, as I said, the pollsters do the smart thing by throwing out the preseason poll entirely and starting all over once the regular season begins.

[sac]

Pat, not to sound like a homer cause Lord knows I am but when you say would Albertus be better? My answer is yes. Believe me I am more than happy and excited for this team as pre-season 8th. I think it is a justifiable ranking but when you look at what Albertus returned and what teams like Williams and Point lost is it really that "crazy" to place Albertus ahead of them?

But Junkie, how in the world would we know Albertus is better? Not one of these games is going to prove to a voter that Albertus is top 10 material:


@ Richard Stockton Tournament

The above statment is TGHIJGSTO!!! man

[John Gleich]

As a pessimistic Pointer fan, they are rated way too high considering losing who they did. On the other hand, they could be starting 4 seniors and 1 junior this year. With that said, I don't know if they'll even be the 2nd best team in the WIAC this season.

Really? Who in the WIAC would be #2? There was a SIGNIFICANT dropoff after UWW (#2 in the conf). Everyone else had 10+ losses.

[John Gleich]

And then you've got our most stalwart UWSP fan absolutely horrified that his Pointers are #7, given all the dire predictions in the WIAC room about a dramatic falloff for UWSP this season.

Hey, who died and made him most stalwart?

Tom is pretty notorious for downplaying the Pointers. Maybe it's his reverse psychology mojo... But...

All I know is that Whitewater required overtime to beat SP least year (they should have never had a chance down 5 with 2 mins, no disrespect to my good friend Nick Bennett) and lost two other pretty convincing games to Point. I get that talent was lost, and significant talent at that, but Whitewater had won one match up out of 10 against UWSP.

[David Collinge]

Back when I had more time and and higher interest level in such things, I recall doing some minimal research that suggested that the d3hoops.com preseason polls are far more accurate than we give them credit for. By "accurate," I mean (or meant, at the time) as a prediction of the final, post-tournament poll, IIRC. Sure, you have what turn out to be blatant mistakes, but come March I think you might be surprised.

And on a not entirely unrelated note, I do think there is some value in selecting in part by "name brand." As a Wooster fan, I feel confident that the Scots can win 20 games in any year with any graduation losses. Success in D3 hoops is unusually coach-dependent, and there are some coaches and programs that can spin gold from straw and do it year in and year out. I may not be able to show objectively that Williams or Illinois Wesleyan is among the best 5 or 10 teams in the nation, but I would certainly not bet against it.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Just as a hint... Wash U is not my top UAA team - Chicago is - though both are in my Top 15 (didn't have any where else to put them).

Augustana... is in my Top 5. Despite my dismissal of them being that high, they are that high in my ballot - but again, I wanted to start at #10. I only have maybe three or four teams I feel comfortable in my Top 10.

Shocker: Stevens Point isn't even in my Top 25. When I heard the words "young" and "rebuilding"... I just can't justify a vote. That being said, there are probably other teams on my ballot who thus don't justify a vote... and again, I wish I started at #10.

There are several other surprises in my ballot... I will try and do my blog for early next week.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I don't like that method of filling out a ballot, but I can certainly understand it. What I would hope, however, is that the pollsters would be quick to throw out that preseason ballot and start over again from scratch every week for the first few weeks of the season. Pat and I have had an argument off and on for the past fifteen years about the wisdom of having early-season polls at all. While I agree that a preseason poll is a good public relations device, and that having one has probably helped to cement d3hoops.com's reputation as the definitive and most authoritative source of information about NCAA Division III basketball, the truth of the matter is that the preseason poll often ends up becoming a template upon which pollsters base their first in-season poll, rather than sticking to actual results (because, of course, the database of actual results is so limited at that point). Then, of course, the pollsters base the second in-season poll upon the first, which means that it, too, is tainted by the now-thoroughly-obsolete preseason poll. We're generally deep into the season by the time that the preseason-poll effect is finally nullified.

A year like this, in which the preseason poll invites so much skepticism, is a recipe for disaster for the usefulness of the first few in-season polls -- unless, as I said, the pollsters do the smart thing by throwing out the preseason poll entirely and starting all over once the regular season begins.

I don't necessarily throw my preseason ballot out and start fresh early in the season for this reason: I need a base to work from. Doing the pre-season poll is a very, very time consuming process - even more this year with so much out there that makes no sense. I can't do that kind of work each and every week for the first few weeks. If I were to throw out my ballot and introduce 50-75 teams to consider... I would rather watch paint dry.

That being said, I am more than willing to gut parts of it that I was clearly not right or had the right information. I don't hold fast to the ballot and hold fast to pre-season thoughts if what on the court is proving otherwise. I also don't hold fast each and ever week. I have pointed out that I tend to blow up my ballot at least three times a year (sometimes as few as two - or semi-blow it up on several occasions) because I am trapped in a situation where my ballot is ditacting things I am no longer seeing in reality.

Now... I will say this... I know about 10 to 15 of the voters (never ask, just happen to find out on most occasions)... and I have very interesting conversations with each of them throughout the year, but not every week. I know there are differing opinions on a lot of teams and this preseason ballot is a very interesting one compared to other ballots I have seen. What gets me is sometimes I think voters are stuck in their ways and not willing to look outside the box. I have no proof, but I think some of the teams on the pre-season ballot are FAR too high and others too low and others not even being considered... because voters won't change off a strange mindset. However, I am one voter - one voice - and I am in no way saying voters have to think more like me or others... I just wish some would think in a more grand scale.

[Greek Tragedy]

For the record, I'm definitely not the Pointer stalwart, nor was I horrified about their ranking. I was shocked. I believe there is a big difference.      

Everyone should know by now I'm a self proclaimed pessimistic Pointer fan.  I already told John I was prepared for another 17-10 season, not unlike our season after our 2nd National Championship. 

Then again, Point won in 2005 and 2010, so we're due in 2015, right?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Albertus really needs to go undefeated this year to justify that ranking with their schedule.  However, if they end up in the title game of the Stockton tournament against TGHIJGSTO, I'll make every effort to be there.  Magnus has built up a reputation and their roster looks as good, if not better than last season.  They're no sleeper, even if they always end up untested.

I'm going to make one day of the Hoopsville tournament (hopefully Saturday, but maybe Sunday) and I should be able to catch Dickinson when they play nearby at Washington College.

I'm pretty excited to be able to get a good look (if early) at a good number of good teams.

Magnus, Stockton, Cabrini, Chicago, WPI, Macon, Witt, MHB, Dickinson.  I don't know if Purchase or Gwynedd Mercy are any good this year, but hopefully I'll get a chance to find out.

Even if the rankings prove horribly incorrect, it'll make me feel like I'm seeing some good teams, anyway.

[Greek Tragedy]

John,

I don't understand your logic. Those examples were from last year. From what Point lost and what Whitewater lost, along with the 2 recruits Point brought in, compared to what Whitewater added, Point's going to have a big drop off this year. I haven't looked closely to see what other teams in the WIAC are doing, but I wouldn't be surprised to see someone other than Point in 2nd place come February.

Now to contradict my pessimistic feelings this year...

Dave,

To call Point young and rebuilding may be inaccurate. Point returns two senior starters in Ritchay and Ryf, along with senior Alex Richard (14+ min a game) and junior Stephen Pelkofer (20 mpg). Lastly both senior Jordan Lutz and junior Sean McCann averaged over 11 minutes a game. So Point could potentially start 4 seniors and 1 junior. You usually don't rebuild with 4 senior starters and a junior.

So whether or not Point is a Top 25 team at the end of the year remains to be seen, but I agree with you now, they aren't in October.

[WUPHF]

Wash U may not be the best D3 team in St Louis.... Note nothing against Wash U, but they lost a lot of last year's pie.. Who might be better?  We'll find out when they play Webster...

Just to be clear, I am not suggesting that Washington University deserves a No. 9 ranking, but rather, I acknowledging that the fact that they are ranked suggests that there are indeed no good answers. 

Washington University is seriously not a Top 25 team.  Emory is probably not a Top 25 team.  I am not sold on Chicago as a Top 15 team.  Chicago should be the favorites in the UAA, but that may not be saying much compared to, say last year.

Otherwise, I will see you at that Webster game on December 10th.

[hopefan]

Wash U may not be the best D3 team in St Louis.... Note nothing against Wash U, but they lost a lot of last year's pie.. Who might be better?  We'll find out when they play Webster...

Just to be clear, I am not suggesting that Washington University deserves a No. 9 ranking, but rather, I acknowledging that the fact that they are ranked suggests that there are indeed no good answers. 

Washington University is seriously not a Top 25 team.  Emory is probably not a Top 25 team.  I am not sold on Chicago as a Top 15 team.  Chicago should be the favorites in the UAA, but that may not be saying much compared to, say last year.

Otherwise, I will see you at that Webster game on December 10th.

One plus I did notice for Wash U is what looks to be a pretty solid recruiting class.. Hopefully some of those kids can fill some minutes...