Top 25 talk

[HOPEful]

You've twisted this argument into some Hope guy wants his team ranked argument

Thank you, SAC. My point was made using Hope as the example, but really isn't about getting "my team ranked higher"...

I don't understand how a team can beat OWU by 26 points and not turn more than 3 (points worth of) heads. But if that's the case, how does OWU not get punished worse for losing to an "justifiably unranked" opponent by 26 points?!

If instead of scheduling games against UWWW, UWSP, and two NAIA Div. 2 opponents, Hope had instead chosen to schedule home tournaments against lesser foes, they could be sitting at 10-1 with their 1 loss being by 3 @ Wooster. Would this make them any better of a team?

How does Amhurst stay ranked after getting blown out by Brandeis and Babson in back to back weeks? How does a Scranton team (their best win is against Alvernia) crack the top 25?

[smedindy]

To be a Top 25 team? YES! Do you want me to seriously put Hope on my ballot at 7-4 with a 1-3 against teams that really matter when the "1" is Ohio Wesleyan and the "3" includes Wooster who Ohio Wesleyan beat? If Hope is as good as a Top 25 team should be... than the win over Ohio Wesleyan would also translate into a win over Wooster. My wife joked with me that I should put Goucher on my Top 25 if they had beaten Amherst - she knew to joke with me accordingly because that isn't how it works. I was ready to put Hope on my ballot with the thumping they gave Ohio Wesleyan, but how can I justify it if they lost three others including to Wooster?

So shouldn't Ohio Wesleyan's win over Wooster be followed with a win over Trine and Hope......I mean, if they are a top 25 team.  You have them 13, and they didn't play anywhere near Hope's schedule, not even close.

Massey SOS has Hope #2 and OWU #19. So they ARE close. Your statement seems like OWU has played hacks and frauds and rummies all season long. Not so.

All this quibbling is fascinating because it's kind of semi-meaningless right now. And their poll ranking will not have any affect at all in their post-season chances or seeding.

[sac]

IWU fell 11 spots in my poll... I hit the cushion with them because I didn't feel comfortable with others above them. I have said they would have fallen out if I had teams I would have put ahead of them. I indeed put NCC ahead of them. That is me having the same argument that they should have beaten NCC as I have with Hope needing to be Wooster. However, I also ranked NCC for the first time this week based on that win over IWU - probably cushioning IWU from falling any further as well (if NCC wasn't ranked at all, I would have had a hard time justifying IWU staying in my poll).

The difference is this: IWU was in my poll and fell the most of all the teams in it (without falling out)... but they landed on a cushion. Hope wasn't in my poll and needed to make a stronger argument (as a result) to get into the poll. Yes, it benefits the team already in the poll, but they were there for a reason and Hope wasn't prior to this week's poll.

Here's the problem I have with this Dave.

You say you looked at Hope's record and dismissed them because they have 4 losses.  Why not the same dismissal of 4 loss IWU?  If you continue to rank them then you are in fact continuing a pre-season bias, yet you stated you have none.

I would think at this point in the voting year you would place two 4 loss teams side by side, in which case I don't see how you (or anyone) can justify IWU in the poll or above Hope.  It doesn't mesh.

I've answered this three times, at least. Please go back and read my answers before trying to dig for more. I did compare... and I told you why IWU was left in the poll and Hope was left off the poll.

You've answered without really answering.


Your justification for ranking IWU is their win over Chicago, #16 on your poll
Hope has a win over #13 on your poll Ohio Wesleyan.

They both have losses to highly rated teams.  IWU to #1 Washington, Hope to #4 Whitewater  (--your poll rankings btw)
They both have losses to good ranked teams on the road  IWU to #21 North Central, Hope to #10 Wooster
They both have losses to good teams  IWU to Cal Lutheran, Hope to Stevens Point
They both have losses to iffy team  IWU to Benedictine, Hope to Aquinas

Somewhere in your argument you state Hope have to beat Wooster for you to rank them, yet that is not a requirement of IWU vs North Central.  Why?  you haven't answered that.  Is it only because you already ranked them?  That's kind of weak.

Side by side, Hope has the better wins and losses and a stronger schedule. 

If the argument for IWU to be ranked is just 'I already had them ranked' that's a pretty disappointing justification.

To be a Top 25 team? YES! Do you want me to seriously put Hope on my ballot at 7-4 with a 1-3 against teams that really matter when the "1" is Ohio Wesleyan and the "3" includes Wooster who Ohio Wesleyan beat? If Hope is as good as a Top 25 team should be... than the win over Ohio Wesleyan would also translate into a win over Wooster. My wife joked with me that I should put Goucher on my Top 25 if they had beaten Amherst - she knew to joke with me accordingly because that isn't how it works. I was ready to put Hope on my ballot with the thumping they gave Ohio Wesleyan, but how can I justify it if they lost three others including to Wooster?

So shouldn't Ohio Wesleyan's win over Wooster be followed with a win over Trine and Hope......I mean, if they are a top 25 team.  You have them 13, and they didn't play anywhere near Hope's schedule, not even close.

Massey SOS has Hope #2 and OWU #19. So they ARE close. Your statement seems like OWU has played hacks and frauds and rummies all season long. Not so.

All this quibbling is fascinating because it's kind of semi-meaningless right now. And their poll ranking will not have any affect at all in their post-season chances or seeding.

There is a pretty big gap from #2 to #19

[HOPEful]

Arguing a loss is a loss is asinine. A two point loss to UWWW and a 3 point loss to Wooster is not equal to a loss to a lesser opponent.

Also, how is it that a loss to an NAIA opponent is counted but a win is not? The win against Cornerstone might be Hope's best win of the season, but it gets swept under the rug.

[Greek Tragedy]

I have a headache.

[WUPHF]

I have a headache.

And, I am feeling depressed.  I am feeling depressed because it has been way too long since I have seen my team play.  I need basketball or maybe some Xanax.

[Mr. Ypsi]

There may not be anyone with greener blood than I - FWIW, I would currently have Hope higher than IWU.  I haven't yet studied them (or others) closely enough to rank them precisely (the first Posters Poll ballot covers games thru this coming Sunday, so such study is in my near future! ), but suspect they would both be somewhere in the 20s, with Hope a spot or two higher.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

You've answered without really answering.

I think you don't like my answers and thus think I am not answering it. I am not trying to sway you. I am simply giving you my position. I don't care if you like the answer or not from this single voter of 25, but let's not pretend I am not answering the question.

Your justification for ranking IWU is their win over Chicago, #16 on your poll
Hope has a win over #13 on your poll Ohio Wesleyan.

They both have losses to highly rated teams.  IWU to #1 Washington, Hope to #4 Whitewater  (--your poll rankings btw)
They both have losses to good ranked teams on the road  IWU to #21 North Central, Hope to #10 Wooster
They both have losses to good teams  IWU to Cal Lutheran, Hope to Stevens Point
They both have losses to iffy team  IWU to Benedictine, Hope to Aquinas

Somewhere in your argument you state Hope have to beat Wooster for you to rank them, yet that is not a requirement of IWU vs North Central.  Why?  you haven't answered that.  Is it only because you already ranked them?  That's kind of weak.

Side by side, Hope has the better wins and losses and a stronger schedule. 

If the argument for IWU to be ranked is just 'I already had them ranked' that's a pretty disappointing justification.

No... I said that since IWU was already ranked I had my reasons to put them in my Top 25 at an earlier point of the season. They have lost and plummeted in my rankings, as I have described, but have stayed in the rankings because I didn't have any one to put in ahead of them - they are 22 for crying out loud. Furthermore, I ranked NCC with the win over IWU probably easing the fall for the Titans. (I am not one of those voters who has a #15 team facing a #5 team and punish the #15 team for the loss when my ballot clearly indicated I expected that to happen.)

Hope has not been ranked and honestly not on my radar until recently. With a new coach and a curious season last year (the early round loss and not maybe stepping forward like expected), I didn't consider them for the preseason poll. That means they need to turn my head after that point. They did that with the win over Ohio Wesleyan... so I went a looked at their resume further. That's where I found they had certainly played a number of good teams, but hadn't won any games besides the OWU one. And I had a common opponent which OWU had beat and Hope had lost to (Wooster). That didn't solve the question I had: is Hope a Top 25 team? That merely muddied the waters. And with nothing else telling me that Hope should be on my ballot (like a win over Wooster or even UWW or UWSP - who is also not on my ballot and hasn't been all year), they stayed off.

Does that mean it is easier to stay on a ballot then come off of it? Yes - at least if you are starting high. I had a reason to put you on in the first place.

Does that make it harder to get on my ballot? Yes. I am not going to throw teams around willy-nilly for the heck of it. If that were the case, Dubuque, St. Norbert, Chapman, Cortland State, Elmhurst, Middlebury, Hardin-Simmons, Rowan, Keene St., Carnegie Mellon, PSU-Behrend, Eastern Nazarene, East Tex. Baptist, W. Connecticut, Hilbert, and Lancaster Bible would all be in my Top 25 because they all have one loss or less and aren't on my ballot.

Hope is on my radar and I am watching carefully. They have Trine and Calvin upcoming this week alone. Win both and depending on what others do, they probably enter my Top 25.

IWU is also on my radar to pull them off my ballot. They have Carthage and Wheaton this week. Win both they probably don't necessarily climb, but lose just one and they are gone.

Hope is 7-4 against a 86-47 (.647) OWP (two of which are outside of DIII at 21-11).
IWU is 7-4 against a 77-54 (.588) OWP (all of which are DIII opponents).

But that measure, Hope is comparable if not better than IWU... and thus why I considered them and they were the 26th team on my board.

I spent two hours Sunday night and another two to three hours Monday pouring over my ballot. I then spent another two to three hours putting my blog together which allows me to think things through even more (and make changes if necessary). All of that time doesn't compute the amount of time I think about the Top 25 or discuss it with others or on Hoopsville. I don't make decisions lightly (though, throwing darts sometimes seems like an easier way to decide teams) and I probably spend WAY too much time on this. Right now Hope is off and IWU is on. Right now my Top 25 is public record, but that doesn't mean it will like that next week. I am known for blowing up my ballot... it could happen any week.

[monsoon]

Your justification for ranking IWU is their win over Chicago, #16 on your poll
Hope has a win over #13 on your poll Ohio Wesleyan.

They both have losses to highly rated teams.  IWU to #1 Washington, Hope to #4 Whitewater  (--your poll rankings btw)
They both have losses to good ranked teams on the road  IWU to #21 North Central, Hope to #10 Wooster
They both have losses to good teams  IWU to Cal Lutheran, Hope to Stevens Point
They both have losses to iffy team  IWU to Benedictine, Hope to Aquinas

Somewhere in your argument you state Hope have to beat Wooster for you to rank them, yet that is not a requirement of IWU vs North Central.  Why?  you haven't answered that.  Is it only because you already ranked them?  That's kind of weak.

Side by side, Hope has the better wins and losses and a stronger schedule. 

If the argument for IWU to be ranked is just 'I already had them ranked' that's a pretty disappointing justification.

No... I said that since IWU was already ranked I had my reasons to put them in my Top 25 at an earlier point of the season. They have lost and plummeted in my rankings, as I have described, but have stayed in the rankings because I didn't have any one to put in ahead of them - they are 22 for crying out loud. Furthermore, I ranked NCC with the win over IWU probably easing the fall for the Titans. (I am not one of those voters who has a #15 team facing a #5 team and punish the #15 team for the loss when my ballot clearly indicated I expected that to happen.)

Hope has not been ranked and honestly not on my radar until recently. With a new coach and a curious season last year (the early round loss and not maybe stepping forward like expected), I didn't consider them for the preseason poll. That means they need to turn my head after that point. They did that with the win over Ohio Wesleyan... so I went a looked at their resume further. That's where I found they had certainly played a number of good teams, but hadn't won any games besides the OWU one. And I had a common opponent which OWU had beat and Hope had lost to (Wooster). That didn't solve the question I had: is Hope a Top 25 team? That merely muddied the waters. And with nothing else telling me that Hope should be on my ballot (like a win over Wooster or even UWW or UWSP - who is also not on my ballot and hasn't been all year), they stayed off.

Does that mean it is easier to stay on a ballot then come off of it? Yes - at least if you are starting high. I had a reason to put you on in the first place.

Does that make it harder to get on my ballot? Yes. I am not going to throw teams around willy-nilly for the heck of it. If that were the case, Dubuque, St. Norbert, Chapman, Cortland State, Elmhurst, Middlebury, Hardin-Simmons, Rowan, Keene St., Carnegie Mellon, PSU-Behrend, Eastern Nazarene, East Tex. Baptist, W. Connecticut, Hilbert, and Lancaster Bible would all be in my Top 25 because they all have one loss or less and aren't on my ballot.

Hope is on my radar and I am watching carefully. They have Trine and Calvin upcoming this week alone. Win both and depending on what others do, they probably enter my Top 25.

IWU is also on my radar to pull them off my ballot. They have Carthage and Wheaton this week. Win both they probably don't necessarily climb, but lose just one and they are gone.

Hope is 7-4 against a 86-47 (.647) OWP (two of which are outside of DIII at 21-11).
IWU is 7-4 against a 77-54 (.588) OWP (all of which are DIII opponents).

But that measure, Hope is comparable if not better than IWU... and thus why I considered them and they were the 26th team on my board.

I spent two hours Sunday night and another two to three hours Monday pouring over my ballot. I then spent another two to three hours putting my blog together which allows me to think things through even more (and make changes if necessary). All of that time doesn't compute the amount of time I think about the Top 25 or discuss it with others or on Hoopsville. I don't make decisions lightly (though, throwing darts sometimes seems like an easier way to decide teams) and I probably spend WAY too much time on this. Right now Hope is off and IWU is on. Right now my Top 25 is public record, but that doesn't mean it will like that next week. I am known for blowing up my ballot... it could happen any week.

This was helpful, Dave, and clearer, to me, at least, than earlier posts in this thread. Thanks to you, sac, Pat, hopeful, and others for the conversation.

[sac]

Thanks for the responses Dave.  Your answer still is basically I ranked IWU ahead of Hope because I already had them ranked, that's fine I guess.  You finally compare them side by side in this last answer but your answer is the same.  Now you say you had Hope 26th when in your very first post you said you 'dismissed them' (my words not yours) because of 4 losses, 26th on your list doesn't sound like dismissing them.   It would have helped to reveal that then but you didn't you simply justified not ranking Hope and then made some pretty wild statements about what would result in a ranking.   It only makes me wonder more why you didn't compare the two 4 loss teams you were considering side by side or reach a different conclusion.   

I'm not trying to pick some fight with you remember no one here asked you to respond and you're the only voter who ever seems to participate here regularly.  Willfully sticking your neck into the guillotine.   I'm just trying to understand why your criteria that you stated to make your ballot seems to be so different for one team(7-4 happens to be my team) and another team (also 7-4 with a slightly weaker resume).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

If it makes you feel better... there are at least ten teams sitting 26th on my ballot

[7express]

I have a headache.

Seriously!  I get it you want your team to be ranked, but top 25 rankings have no bearing on whether that team gets selected for the NCAA tournament.

[HOPEful]

Dave, I too appreciate your openness to show (and defend) your ballot. Although I may not agree with some of the methods, I very much enjoy the conversation/debate.

My issue is less with Hope or IWU and more with Amherst still making the cut. Drew (6-5), Emerson (7-4), and Babson (10-1) are the only teams they've played so far with winning records. A week after losses to Brandeis (5-5) by 20 and Babson (10-1) by 19, Amherst went to OT against Goucher (1-9). I don't think where expectations began preseason should have any impact on voting in January. Even with a win against E. Connecticut, I don't see Amherst as a top 25 team at this point in the season.

However, I do realize we are sqaubling over the #20+ team in the country in January...

[smedindy]

From sac the immortal:

There is a pretty big gap from #2 to #19

You are losing sight that we are dealing with the ENTIRE D3 Universe. It's barely a blip, really. 17 places out of a 416 team sample? Bah.

You made it sound like OWU played all Earlhams and Keystones and Cal Techs.

[sac]

From sac the immortal:

There is a pretty big gap from #2 to #19

You are losing sight that we are dealing with the ENTIRE D3 Universe. It's barely a blip, really. 17 places out of a 416 team sample? Bah.

You made it sound like OWU played all Earlhams and Keystones and Cal Techs.

I'm quite mortal 


Even if its only #2 to #19 that gap is enormous, the same gap back from OWU is into the 200's.