Top 25 talk

[sac]

Unless the pre-season pundits are wrong about the Illini, Illinois started only 2 projected starters, with 1 not playing at all, and another significant rotation guy not playing. 

[Greek Tragedy]

Poll is out

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/men/2016-17/preseason

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Poll is out

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/men/2016-17/preseason

Going to be LOTS of sorting out in November and December.  My #6 team didn't even make the Top 25.  Crazy.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Voters are clearly all over the place. There are a lot of teams to consider this year thanks to parity... which also makes the top half of the poll even more difficult.

[Gregory Sager]

As I keep telling people whenever someone posts the D3 preseason rankings of The Sporting News or DIII News, the d3hoops.com preseason Top 25 is the only D3 men's basketball forecast that's really worth taking seriously. Before I say anything further, I want to make it clear that I still believe that.

Be that as it may, however, there are still some stray voters in the d3hoops.com poll who make me wonder how much they're really paying attention when they make out their preseason ballots, as opposed to simply re-posting last March's tourney results for their respective Top 25s. I could cite other examples, but I'll use two cases in point from the league whose games I broadcast, the CCIW: 1) Augustana may be coming off of a championship game appearance and an Elite Eight appearance over the past two seasons, but Augie lost six seniors who were not only their top six scorers but also their top six rebounders and top six minutes-eaters. Picking the Rock Islanders #18 -- which means that there's individual voters who picked them even higher than that -- is ridiculous; and 2) how Elmhurst, which lost a whopping nine players who averaged double-digit minutes last season, was deemed worthy of appearing on someone's ballot (if not on two of them, since EC got two points in the poll) is beyond me. Coach John Baines is forced to re-construct almost his entire rotation this season. Granted, the CCIW coaches' preseason poll is notorious for getting it wrong, but the CCIW coaches picked the Bluejays to finish sixth out of nine teams.

[Greek Tragedy]

I agree completely with Augie. I also think it's amazing that St. Thomas is ranked where they are, if ranked at all. Sure, they actually return someone, but #10 and a 1st place vote?

[sac]

I agree completely with Augie. I also think it's amazing that St. Thomas is ranked where they are, if ranked at all. Sure, they actually return someone, but #10 and a 1st place vote?

Last time a defending champ was ranked out the following season's pre-season poll was the 2006 poll when Stevens Point came in ranked #26 following their 2005 title.

Otherwise, every defending champion has been ranked in the top 10 the following pre-season poll.
St. Thomas  #10
Stevens Point  #9
Whitewater  #1
Amherst #1
Whitewater #3
St. Thomas #8
Stevens Point #1
Washington #1
Washington #1
Amherst #2
Va. Wesleyan #1
Stevens Point #26
Stevens Point #1
Williams #1
Otterbein #10
Catholic #5
Calvin #1
Platteville #1

[sac]

Also kind of interesting here's where the eventual champion started in the poll

St. Thomas  #4
Stevens Point #7
Whitewater #13
Amherst #5
Whitewater #28
St. Thomas #13
Stevens Point #10
Washington #1
Washington #1
Amherst #5
Va. Wesleyan #11
Stevens Point #1
Stevens Point #3
Williams #11
Otterbein  NR
Catholic #7
Calvin #22
Platteville  (no poll)

[Greek Tragedy]

My point is all because they are the defending champion doesn't mean they should be ranked. Look at who St. Thomas has lost and look who they are returning. They should be in the 20s, if raned at all. Last preseason Point was ranked #9, which was a joke considering they lost 4 senior starters.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

My point is all because they are the defending champion doesn't mean they should be ranked. Look at who St. Thomas has lost and look who they are returning. They should be in the 20s, if raned at all. Last preseason Point was ranked #9, which was a joke considering they lost 4 senior starters.

I agree that some people have them too high, but I think there's also the issue of "who else do I put in?"  Yes, there are certain teams bringing everybody back who need to be added, but there aren't a lot of those teams, especially not a lot on a national radar.  Unless we've literally got voters pulling "maybe" teams out of thin air, we're going to end up with some usual suspects simply because they're usual suspects and they're that way for a reason.

It's just pre-season.  The games will work themselves out, and very quickly given the schedule we've got in Nov-Dec this year.

[Mr. Ypsi]

My point is all because they are the defending champion doesn't mean they should be ranked. Look at who St. Thomas has lost and look who they are returning. They should be in the 20s, if raned at all. Last preseason Point was ranked #9, which was a joke considering they lost 4 senior starters.

I agree that some people have them too high, but I think there's also the issue of "who else do I put in?"  Yes, there are certain teams bringing everybody back who need to be added, but there aren't a lot of those teams, especially not a lot on a national radar.  Unless we've literally got voters pulling "maybe" teams out of thin air, we're going to end up with some usual suspects simply because they're usual suspects and they're that way for a reason.

It's just pre-season.  The games will work themselves out, and very quickly given the schedule we've got in Nov-Dec this year.

Totally agree that preseason rankings are pretty much a joke (but fun to talk about).

There is one 'usual suspect' that got ZERO votes.  IWU has the same coach who went to Salem in both 2012 and 2014, and a guy who I suspect will be some level of All-American at season's end - Trevor Seibring.  They were picked to finish second in the CCIW, yet THREE teams picked below them are in the top 25 or receiving votes.  My team has been 'Rodney Dangerfield-ed'.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

My point is all because they are the defending champion doesn't mean they should be ranked. Look at who St. Thomas has lost and look who they are returning. They should be in the 20s, if raned at all. Last preseason Point was ranked #9, which was a joke considering they lost 4 senior starters.

I agree that some people have them too high, but I think there's also the issue of "who else do I put in?"  Yes, there are certain teams bringing everybody back who need to be added, but there aren't a lot of those teams, especially not a lot on a national radar.  Unless we've literally got voters pulling "maybe" teams out of thin air, we're going to end up with some usual suspects simply because they're usual suspects and they're that way for a reason.

It's just pre-season.  The games will work themselves out, and very quickly given the schedule we've got in Nov-Dec this year.

Totally agree that preseason rankings are pretty much a joke (but fun to talk about).

There is one 'usual suspect' that got ZERO votes.  IWU has the same coach who went to Salem in both 2012 and 2014, and a guy who I suspect will be some level of All-American at season's end - Trevor Seibring.  They were picked to finish second in the CCIW, yet THREE teams picked below them are in the top 25 or receiving votes.  My team has been 'Rodney Dangerfield-ed'.

That could end up being an oversight.  IWU was not included in the 50 or so teams voters got information for before the vote.  Typically that includes teams receiving votes at the end of last season, teams that won games in the tourney, and any other teams a voter requests.  Maybe we all forgot about IWU?  I personally added three or four teams to the list, but didn't think of IWU.  Mea culpa - we can't all be perfect.

[KnightSlappy]

Totally agree that preseason rankings are pretty much a joke (but fun to talk about).

Unlike the late-season rankings which are Very Serious Business. 

[jaybird44]

Not true sac, regarding alleged lack of quality among the Illini starters. 6 of the 7 top scorers are back, and 4 of them saw significant minutes Sunday.  And, when WashU cut the Illini lead from 29 to 20, the starters came back in. 

[nescac1]

I will say this for St. Thomas -- more than any other D3 program, they just reload, not rebuild, even when they suffer big losses.  They graduated four starters from their 2011 title team, and the fifth starter played only nine games before suffering a season-ending injury.  They still finished with 22 wins, a league title, and made it to the second round of the tourney.  And that was a down year for them.

This team actually returns a bit more than that, returning its leading scorer and another starter as well, plus three more guys who were at least minor rotation players.  All St. Thomas does is win its league, win at least 22 games (usually more) and typically make a deep tourney run nearly every year.  Until that changes, I do think they deserve the benefit of the doubt -- each year guys emerge from deep on the bench to make a massive impact.  The coach seems to really favor playing seniors but talent is always buried on the bench, and no matter what, they will ALWAYS D up and make shots from distance.