Top 25 talk

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ElRetornodelEspencio

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 30, 2016, 11:42:36 AM
Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on November 30, 2016, 11:28:51 AM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on November 30, 2016, 08:22:37 AM
Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on November 29, 2016, 01:23:42 PM
Quote from: HOPEful on November 29, 2016, 01:08:27 PM
Quote from: whyDiii on November 29, 2016, 10:17:08 AM
There is no avoiding the controversy this early as most people have seen less than half of the top 25 teams(my guess). Definitely a lot of bickering for the second poll of 2016...

Just don't say Edwards isn't as good as McCarthy, Palleschi, and Flannery. Don't even imply it!! :)

I wouldn't even say that. But I definitely don't think there were 20 players better than him last year in D3, but my point was more that he was returning from a team that was clearly good besides him. But whatever. If they can make it through the next few weeks in good shape it's all downhill from there.

Of course, he's not competing against all 20 above him, just the 8-10 post players.  If you look at those names, it's tough to move him up - based on last year's results, playing alongside Grennert.  I imagine we'll get to see everything he's capable of this year.

That shouldn't matter. People don't have a problem with putting 4 guards on there.

But I still don't buy this.

Bottom line is if you normalize Edwards to 35 mpg, we're not having this conversation because he would have been a first team A-A. He got penalized for Vander Wal's sub patterns (which isn't to say his sub patterns were wrong).

If we normalize Edwards to 35 mpg... because everyone should just change the math to make your argument work. SMH

Just to make my argument work, eh? Karl-Anthony Towns was a 2nd team AA by AP and NABC with 10 pts and 6.7 rebs a game, as a freshman no less (obviously). Why? Because the people picking the teams were savvy enough to see that he only played 21 mpg on a balanced team and looked at the impact he had and how good he was. SMH. Edwards was 18-8 in D3 on not many more mpg in a similarly powerful conference.

Move on... you have an axe to grind and it has gotten old. No one has knocked Edwards, but you won't except it. Sure, some have put four guards on a lineup, but we try not to. We have also put three forwards on a team in the past. Happens a lot. NABC puts EIGHT players on a team. Can you put eight players on a court to play a game?

Can you imagine playing a game without substituting?

Even adding three forwards to a team wouldn't have moved Edwards up as far as you would have liked last year. He's good, yes. But those ahead of him last year were better in the opinion of a number of people. Who cares. It was last year. He was a first-team AA pre-season selection this year... apparently that doesn't matter to you. You come from a very jaded and blinded point of view which is perfectly fine... the difference is those who vote on All-Region and All-American... don't. There are probably between 6500-7000 players in Division III and you are squabbling over the fact he was selected, but not high enough, as one of the best 25 - the top 0.35-0.38% - in the country. Unreal.

You assume I'm just some biased dumb guy that supports a team. That's where you fail. I've been in these discussion and made all-American votes, and done a whole lot of other statistical analysis.

I care because IMO it impacted where people voted Marietta in the preseason poll, and because it was just a crazy oversight. Not for the first time where Marietta is concerned, it might be said. Not even the most ridiculous one. I remember when DeSalvo wasn't the pitcher of the year in I guess it was 2000. That was ridiculous and obviously we know that now, but it really should have been known then. Jesse Duperow's senior year being overlooked was just nuts. I could go on  Fortunately MC had the schedule to right that wrong quickly, but it didn't have to be that way. My theory is it's because Marietta is off the beaten path from just about anywhere to anywhere, even in its own region. You don't see MC home games by just happening to have some free time and deciding to catch a game, unless you live in Marietta. It's different now with online video, or I would have thought.

At any rate, I can't get the NCAA's historical stats to come up so I can't actually test out what you're saying about there just being no room at the inn (I suspect he was shuffled down the list because the others are seniors).

The fact that there are a lot of D3 players does not in itself invaldate my point.

ElRetornodelEspencio

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 30, 2016, 11:37:00 AM
A little late, here is my Top 25 ballot for Week 1 (along with my pre-season ballot in there) along with my thoughts. Remember, I am sharing this because people find it interesting and you get my insight... but I am ONE voter. I don't have any more points or weight than anyone else even if my designation has changed (I used to be one of the three Mid-Atlantic voters, I have now taken over Pat's former role as the 25th voter - the national slot): http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2016/11/30/daves-top-25-ballot-16-17-week-1/

Per the comment about why Marietta was scheduled against Albright - I would love to see you try and put an eight-team classic together.

First off, we wanted to avoid any team playing two teams from the same conference. This year we were challenged with two teams from the MAC Commonwealth and two from the ODAC - it happened and nothing we could do about it.

Secondly, there are a ton of timing issues to work through. You don't want teams to have too tough a turn around, you don't want to give teams a much longer break than their opponent on the second day. There are games you want to feature in a more prime slot while also giving the host school (Stevenson) the timing they want to play since they want to shine for their own fans. You have to consider what travel plans may be before and after the event and you have to consider other details that can throw wrenches in the scheduling. For example, some schools have request not to play teams (while everyone has requests to play teams; the year we had Middlebury, FIVE teams wanted to play the Panthers).

There is plenty more I can go into and explain why there were five or six versions of the schedule along with countless hours twisting things around. It came down to this: Albright was going to face UWSP, Marietta, CNU, or Lynchburg - plain and simple. When we worked through all the schedules, Marietta was the only one we could slot in against Albright. Marietta was also the only team who got a nice benefit of a few extra hours turnaround to the next day, but since CNU wasn't playing less than 24 hours earlier, we stuck with this. But that was a sticking point for us for a long time. We eventually had to stick with this schedule because it was the best version we could produce.

But to your point about Albright hurting Marietta's SOS... I don't think you know what you are talking about. First off, Albright is currently 2-2 and has a pretty good out-of-conference schedule that will actually help Marietta's SOS. Secondly, the MAC Commonwealth is not a bad conference and usually produced very good SOS numbers in the past ten years. Thirdly, Albright will absolutely play a factor in the Commonwealth race this season. There is nothing about that match-up that will hurt Marietta in the slightest. LaRoche and Bethany will actually hurt Marietta's SOS more than Albright's because LaRoche's (AMCC) and Bethany's (PAC) conferences are in the lower third, maybe quarter, of Division III which will pull the Pioneer's SOS down. Commonwealth is in the top half, possibly top third (can't remember where Gordon slotted them off the top of my head).

Don't worry about the game against Albright... it won't hurt Marietta a damn bit. (By the way, Albright's coach admitted his team was overwhelmed by Marietta psychologically in pre-game, but that is why teams come to the event - to improve and prepare for things out of their norm; they looked pretty darn good against RMC the next day.)

MC plays LaRoche and Bethany because they're the geographically closest non-conference D3 programs, along with St. Vincent, Waynesburg, both of whom they've also played, and W&J and maybe 1-2 others that are close enough that I am not going to bother to refer to google maps. Those are 100+ mile trips, and again, the nearest non-conference opponents. Maybe that's a reality check for you. It's not realistic to just go and play anyone anywhere and maintain academic integrity. That's why these tournaments are important for them.

I have several specific reasons for why I'm confident this game will hurt their SOS and I am not going to share them because to be honest I think MC has figured some things out that other programs haven't and so it's a competitive advantage. So I'm satisfied with letting you think it won't matter, even though I'm pretty sure I could prove that wrong.

It's obvious you vastly underestimate me, and I'm too busy to worry about trying to prove you wrong when I don't think it'll matter if I do.

Btw, pretty sure Lynchburg is closer to Stevenson than Marietta is. Totally unconvinced that they couldn't have played Albright.

Ok back to real, actual work.

Darryl Nester

#9857
How They Fared (So Far)

No result yet from Nebraska Wesleyan @ Wartburg.

Top 25

Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#1611Amherst4-0def. Westfield State, 84-59; 12/03 vs. Emerson
#2599Babson7-0def. Bates, 87-53; 12/02 vs. Salem State; 12/03 vs. TBA
#3558Tufts5-0def. #23 WPI, 75-71; 12/02 at Brandeis; 12/03 vs. TBA
#4542Marietta5-012/03 at #20 Baldwin Wallace
#5510Whitman3-012/02 at Willamette
#6485North Central (Ill.)3-1LOST to UW-Platteville, 40-57; 12/03 vs. #16 Illinois Wesleyan
#7447Christopher Newport4-1def. Southern Virginia, 80-55; 12/03 vs. Frostburg State
#8437Whitworth3-012/03 at Willamette
#9380Washington U.4-012/02 vs. UC Santa Cruz; 12/03 vs. Rhodes/UW-Eau Claire
#10378St. Norbert1-112/02 at Knox; 12/03 at Illinois College
#11357Wooster3-2LOST to Denison, 59-65; 12/03 at Wabash
#12297St. Thomas4-1def. Macalester, 72-61; 12/03 at Augsburg
#13292Keene State5-0def. Trinity (Conn.), 76-66; 12/03 at Mass-Dartmouth
#14207Benedictine3-2def. Rockford, 96-65; 12/03 at Marian
#15201Hope4-1won at T#41 John Carroll, 85-72; 12/03 vs. #32 UW-La Crosse
#16184Illinois Wesleyan5-012/03 at #6 North Central (Ill.)
#17175Augustana5-1def. #50 UW-Oshkosh, 77-64; 12/03 vs. #39 North Park
#18168Rochester6-012/02 vs. #51 St. John Fisher; 12/03 at Nazareth
#19162Salisbury5-0def. St. Mary's (Md.), 64-59; 12/03 at Penn State-Harrisburg
#20116Baldwin Wallace4-012/03 vs. #4 Marietta
#21112UW-Eau Claire4-012/02 vs. Rhodes; 12/03 vs. UC-Santa Cruz or Washington Univeristy
#2296Mount St. Joseph5-1LOST at Anderson, 74-78; 12/03 vs. Rose-Hulman
#2384WPI4-1LOST at #3 Tufts, 71-75; 12/01 at Framingham State; 12/03 at Fitchburg State
#2481Endicott3-1def. Curry, 85-56; 12/03 at Eastern Nazarene
#2570Susquehanna4-112/03 at Goucher


Others receiving votes
Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
T#2650Ohio Wesleyan2-3LOST to (n) Otterbein, 66-72; 12/03 at DePauw
T#2650Swarthmore4-012/01 at Muhlenberg; 12/03 vs. Dickinson
T#2650UW-Whitewater4-0def. Beloit, 82-70
#2944Scranton5-1LOST at Hobart, 58-70; 12/03 vs. Juniata
#3031Franklin and Marshall3-112/01 vs. Ursinus; 12/03 at Haverford
#3129New Jersey City5-1def. William Paterson, 71-69; 12/03 vs. Rutgers-Camden
#3228UW-La Crosse4-1LOST at Luther, 58-67; 12/02 at Albion; 12/03 at #15 Hope
T#3325Capital4-2LOST to Wittenberg, 60-63; 12/03 at Ohio Northern
T#3325East Texas Baptist4-012/01 at Hardin-Simmons; 12/03 at McMurry
T#3325Emory4-2won at Birmingham-Southern, 75-70; 12/03 at Piedmont
T#3325Virginia Wesleyan4-2won at North Carolina Wesleyan, 83-63; 12/04 at Roanoke
#3724Skidmore4-1def. TCNJ, 96-84; 12/03 vs. Houghton
#3821Lycoming5-1won at Messiah, 87-75; 12/03 vs. Hood
#3920North Park4-0def. Alma, 88-81; 12/03 at #17 Augustana
#4019Wartburg6-0def. Nebraska Wesleyan, 92-76; 12/03 at Simpson
T#4118John Carroll1-3LOST to #15 Hope, 72-85; 12/03 at Muskingum
T#4118Lynchburg4-2LOST to Shenandoah, 71-74
#4316UW-River Falls4-1def. Viterbo, 72-46; 12/02 vs. La Verne; 12/03 at Redlands
#4414Middlebury5-1def. RPI, 79-72; def. Johnson State, 99-83
T#4510Neumann5-0won at Clarks Summit, 107-67; 12/03 at Gwynedd Mercy
T#4510Plattsburgh State3-1LOST at St. Lawrence, 73-91; 12/02 at Buffalo State; 12/03 at Fredonia
#479Misericordia4-112/02 at Utica
#487Carroll4-1IDLE
#494Claremont-Mudd-Scripps4-012/02 vs. San Diego Christian
#503UW-Oshkosh2-3LOST at #17 Augustana, 64-77; 12/03 vs. Calvin
#511St. John Fisher3-112/02 vs. #18 Rochester; 12/03 vs. Rochester Tech

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

#9858
Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on November 30, 2016, 07:17:06 PM
You assume I'm just some biased dumb guy that supports a team. That's where you fail. I've been in these discussion and made all-American votes, and done a whole lot of other statistical analysis.

I care because IMO it impacted where people voted Marietta in the preseason poll, and because it was just a crazy oversight. Not for the first time where Marietta is concerned, it might be said. Not even the most ridiculous one. I remember when DeSalvo wasn't the pitcher of the year in I guess it was 2000. That was ridiculous and obviously we know that now, but it really should have been known then. Jesse Duperow's senior year being overlooked was just nuts. I could go on  Fortunately MC had the schedule to right that wrong quickly, but it didn't have to be that way. My theory is it's because Marietta is off the beaten path from just about anywhere to anywhere, even in its own region. You don't see MC home games by just happening to have some free time and deciding to catch a game, unless you live in Marietta. It's different now with online video, or I would have thought.

At any rate, I can't get the NCAA's historical stats to come up so I can't actually test out what you're saying about there just being no room at the inn (I suspect he was shuffled down the list because the others are seniors).

The fact that there are a lot of D3 players does not in itself invaldate my point.

I assume nothing... you are making assumptions now. Where do you get off saying I fail? Again, I am not assuming anything about you except what you have proven - you are a fan of Marietta's which will automatically have you fall in the category of being a fan who sees through the color of one's team. When it comes to my alma mater, I am sure I am just as guilty as everyone else (I certainly was nearly 20 years ago when I first started posting on these boards).

As for your assertion that his placement on last year's All-America list affected people's voting is probably a little insane. First off, the voting panel of 25 has quite a few NABC coaches on it, so they are fully aware of how their panel decided All-Americans, thus they are going to remember he was a first-teamer for them. Secondly, I for one have NEVER adjusted my voting based on whether an individual was a first-teamer or an honorable mention. I will note they were an All-American and I would know that considering I am on the panel that makes those decisions for D3hoops.com. But that isn't going to make me move Marietta around as a result of that. I certainly didn't look at Marietta and say, "hmm, Edwards is back, he's only an honorable mention, that doesn't mean much, 16 looks good," versus, "hmm, Edwards is back, we had him second team, that makes the team a stud, I'll put the Pioneers fifth." There are so many other factors involved that to think that made Marietta so low ranked is ridiculous. Your fellow fan pretty much summed up what I think a lot of the voters were thinking when it came to the Pioneers. And again, it was a pre-season poll. In the long run it affects nothing. The NCAA certainly doesn't use it for selections and it isn't going to affect any of the players' resume when it comes to them getting jobs after college.

"Fortunately MC had the schedule to right that wrong quickly, but it didn't have to be that way." Seriously? Take a chill pill, dude! You are way too wrapped up in this. I promise you, the coaching staff and players didn't care a smidgen as much as you are making this out to be.

And Marietta is not off the beaten path not with video streaming available almost everywhere now. Sure, we can't get to games as voters all over the country, but they can't do it in Division I, either. You also probably just ignored last year altogether when Marietta got as high as fourth in the Top 25 in the final weeks of the season and was sixth heading into the tournament... if your theory that no one is able to see them in their own gym were true, then explain their ranking (that's rhetorical). By your theory, Whitman and Whitworth wouldn't even be in the Top 10 or even the Top 25 at all, no one would consider voting for East Texas Baptist, and who would want to vote for Wartburg since it isn't exactly close to anything in Iowa.

Marietta is 5 1/2 hours from my house. I've made the trip. I don't mind trips like that. I regret not making it for the John Carroll game last year (something I posted about on the board and talked about on the show). But if I am willing to drive 5 1/2 hours to see them at their place others are as well. Furthermore, those who vote on our panel have seen them in person because there are coaches in and around their region, SIDs who see them, and other media members who see them in person as well. The only teams in Division III that can seriously make a claim that maybe they aren't appreciated because people can't see them are Colorado College, Nebraska Wesleyan, teams in the NWC and SCIAC, Finlandia, and a handful of others in extreme locations like northern New York, Maine, etc.

Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on November 30, 2016, 07:28:57 PM

MC plays LaRoche and Bethany because they're the geographically closest non-conference D3 programs, along with St. Vincent, Waynesburg, both of whom they've also played, and W&J and maybe 1-2 others that are close enough that I am not going to bother to refer to google maps. Those are 100+ mile trips, and again, the nearest non-conference opponents. Maybe that's a reality check for you. It's not realistic to just go and play anyone anywhere and maintain academic integrity. That's why these tournaments are important for them.

Maybe you are the one starting to make assumptions on who people are here. I know full well where Marietta is located, what teams are around them, and what they can or cannot do in terms of travel. Just to make sure you know exactly how it worked: I was the one who invited them to the Hoopsville Classic after all. So don't try and insult me by saying "maybe that's a reality check for you." I would be happy to give you my Division III basketball resume if you are not aware of it - or others can. I know exactly how things are situated not only for Marietta, but around the country.

My point about LaRoche and Bethany as opponents had nothing to do with criticizing their schedule - they have a very good schedule. It was to point out that there are two teams in LaRoche and Bethany who actually are not as good as Albright in terms of SOS - those two conferences are SOS killers; Albright's is not. I wasn't saying they shouldn't play LaRoche or Bethany - I made no such comment. I am comparing opponents and your disinterest in Albright when that isn't a problem in reality.

Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on November 30, 2016, 07:28:57 PM

I have several specific reasons for why I'm confident this game will hurt their SOS and I am not going to share them because to be honest I think MC has figured some things out that other programs haven't and so it's a competitive advantage. So I'm satisfied with letting you think it won't matter, even though I'm pretty sure I could prove that wrong.

This may go down as one of the most ridiculous statements I have read in a long time - well, outside of the one we deleted in the NEWMAC today because it attacked a coach with no facts to back it up (though, we had the facts). You aren't going to share "several specific reasons?" Seriously? Then why say anything at all? Why make a point of trying to seem like you have all the answers, but the rest of us are not good enough to be privy to them? If you are going to make a claim like that, back it up. Otherwise, don't bother.

I know how the SOS system works, how regional rankings are conducted, and how national selections are orchestrated... I know it pretty well. You are alluding to the fact that Marietta has found some competitive advantage presumably on the basketball floor... not sure how that affects other team's schedules or their conferences (especially the AMCC or the PAC). Sounds more like smoke and mirrors and double-talk. Though, I will be sure to ask Coach VanderWal the next time I chat with him which should be sometime in the next week - maybe I will even ask him on air. It might be a nice change of pace for the show.

Unless Albright losses the rest of it's games, I am confident that they won't hurt Marietta's SOS.

Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on November 30, 2016, 07:28:57 PM
It's obvious you vastly underestimate me, and I'm too busy to worry about trying to prove you wrong when I don't think it'll matter if I do.

Not sure how to respond to this. Underestimate you? Are you a ninja that has attained the highest black belt level possible? I don't over, under, or estimate people, period. I respond to what I see written or spoken towards me. Though, "I'm too busy to worry about trying to prove you wrong" cracks me up. Not sure why you are concerned about proving anyone wrong. This is a discussion board not a fight club. We discuss things on these boards. Sometimes people are wrong and right, but usually people are just sharing information and opinions. I have shared some things that are not opinions, but those are clearly just facts to clarify the situation. I am certainly not trying to prove you wrong in any my statements. I am simply telling you my thought process and why I think A or B about a situation. But if you are too busy, I will make sure to have appreciated your time. We will miss you from the boards, I guess.

Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on November 30, 2016, 07:28:57 PM
Btw, pretty sure Lynchburg is closer to Stevenson than Marietta is. Totally unconvinced that they couldn't have played Albright.

Nothing you wrote here has anything to do with how we schedule at the Hoopsville Classic. Distance as nothing to do with it. Never has. Never will. The only thing distance affects is when teams may be arriving for the event, how many nights they may have to spend, and sometimes how many we try and invite from "near by" as to try and keep costs down.

Lynchburg was actually the last team into the tournament to replace another team that didn't work out at the last minute (by our standards - it was May) - Lynchburg happen to be two hours closer than the other team. However, I had invited teams as far away as the Iowa/Illinois border in an effort to fill the hole. Lynchburg happened to work out.

Oh by the way, Lynchburg is a four hour drive from their campus to Stevenson. Marietta is slightly more than five hours to Stevenson. Not sure that is relevant. That is basically irrelevant in my mind when it comes to distance in Division III.

We actually had Lynchburg-Marietta lined up as a possible game, but other factors that either that caused or elsewhere in the match-ups or timing didn't allow it to happen. I had Marietta lined up against all seven of the other programs at some point during the scheduling discussions. There wasn't an option not included when it came to Marietta. The only limitations we had where not to have teams play two opponents from the same conference, not to have conference opponents face each other at all, and CNU/RMC couldn't play each other since they were facing each other just days prior to the tournament. I wanted to make sure CNU and Marietta stayed on the schedule, but one of the versions we nearly went with actually didn't allow that to happen.

One of the other things we try and do is put match-ups together that we don't normally get to see even in the NCAA tournament. We don't have to worry about the 500 mile rule after all. That may not have affected Marietta, necessarily, but it affected other match-ups in the tournament.

But you think you could put Lynchburg v. Albright. Well, now we have to change Albright's other opponent in RMC because they are in the same conference as Lynchburg. And now I have to look for another opponent for Albright. But not just Albright, I have to look for another opponent for RMC as well. And to make it more challenging, I can't forget Stevenson who is in Albright's conference because anything I change with Albright will also affect Stevenson. And there is one other note: Stevenson hosts this event - they have the right to pick who they want to play and when they want to play those games. Absolutely nothing wrong with that but that also affects what we can do.

But if you are so convinced Lynchburg-Albright could have happened instead of Marietta-Albright, feel free to let me know how the entire tournament would have been scheduled. Remember also, you have to figure out the game times for teams (2, 4, 6, 8 is the schedule - you can't change it) without having a team have too brutal a turn-around from their first game or be unfair to the second opponent because you gave too much of a break to someone (i.e. Marietta playing four-hours later on Saturday, which is unusual for how we run the tournament, was on the limits of okay with us because CNU was playing exactly 24 hours later; had CNU been playing two hours earlier, we would have looked to fix the schedule in a different way).

We don't throw darts and come up with a schedule. I would suggest not assuming you know anything about how this is actually done.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

ElRetornodelEspencio

**** it. you're the god of d3 basketball. I don't give a **** anymore.

I'm about to throw my computer out into the rain and just not give a **** about anything anymore.

Anyone up for biking from Barrow to the Tierra del Fuego? I'm pretty much done with the world.

HOPEful

#9860
Yikes Spencer, seems a little extreme man... Marietta is still 5-0... seems like that's something to care about.

And I don't know why I feel compelled touch on the subject, but, it's my understanding that there is a 54 mile stretch between Panama and Columbia where roads cease to exist (rainforest)... do you plan on just taking a boat from Panama to Columbia?
Let's go Dutchmen!

2015-2016 1-&-Done Tournament Fantasy League Co-Champion

Flying Dutch Fan

2016, 2020, 2022 MIAA Pick 'Em Champion

"Sports are kind of like passion and that's temporary in many cases, but academics - that's like true love and that's enduring." 
John Wooden

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goodknight

KnightSlappy

I'm not sure the best place to post this, but I've made a (strong, I think) attempt at re-creating the Ken Pomeroy ratings for D3 MBB.

http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency-ratings/

Data set includes D3 vs. D3 only. Numbers will be a bit wonky here in the early going. Hopefully they'll stabilize nicely as we go.

HOPEful

Quote from: KnightSlappy on December 01, 2016, 10:48:50 AM
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency-ratings/
Data set includes D3 vs. D3 only. Numbers will be a bit wonky here in the early going. Hopefully they'll stabilize nicely as we go.

I like many aspects of this, including and not limited to the fact that it's d3 v. d3 only. As Dave pointed out recently on another board, Massey doesn't/can't seem to ever get that right... However, I'm convinced that the human polls are guilty of the same thing. It seems the d3 community discredits any win over NAIA/non-d3 but continues to, at least on some level, hold those loses against teams. But I've beaten that horse too many times...

And seeing has it has Hope #2, clearly it has to be accurate :)

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 22, 2016, 01:07:37 PM
I'm convinced Massey can't actually figure out how to handle the quirks of NCAA basketball in terms of games that do or don't count and other facets...
Let's go Dutchmen!

2015-2016 1-&-Done Tournament Fantasy League Co-Champion

augie77

North Central is not in the top 100? 

KnightSlappy

#9865
Quote from: augie77 on December 01, 2016, 11:15:03 AM
North Central is not in the top 100?

Not yet. The system perhaps favors teams with blowout wins in these early days before the data stabilizes. Their biggest (point margin) win has come against Alma which the computer does not love at the moment. Their ranking will likely rise as things go.

I'm hoping to build in a historical bias (like the Top 25 voters, Massey, and KenPom do) in future versions to help stabilize our early-season numbers.

Right now NCC is getting credit, (per 100 possessions) relative to an average team, for

Benedictine: +19 points
Alma: +11 points
Aurora: +10 points
UW-Platteville: -1 pts

That equals out to about +10 pts (per 100 possessions) per game. Good but yet unexceptional.

Compare that to the similarly-rated Calvin who's currently getting credit for:

Finlandia: +21 pts
Augustana: -5 pts
Carthage: +16 pts

That comes out to about +10 per game as well. They're really benefiting from their 41-pt win over Finlandia because there are fewer games to average across.

Calvin is NOT actually better (or really close) to North Central. Consistent play will even these things out.


Pat Coleman

Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on December 01, 2016, 05:16:25 AM
**** it. you're the god of d3 basketball. I don't give a **** anymore.

I'm about to throw my computer out into the rain and just not give a **** about anything anymore.

Anyone up for biking from Barrow to the Tierra del Fuego? I'm pretty much done with the world.

Spence, seriously, why do you keep coming around here if you can't handle conversation and non-Marietta-favorable opinions? Maybe this isn't the place for you.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

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ElRetornodelEspencio

Quote from: HOPEful on December 01, 2016, 07:58:41 AM
Yikes Spencer, seems a little extreme man... Marietta is still 5-0... seems like that's something to care about.

And I don't know why I feel compelled touch on the subject, but, it's my understanding that there is a 54 mile stretch between Panama and Columbia where roads cease to exist (rainforest)... do you plan on just taking a boat from Panama to Columbia?

I dunno. Other people have done it so I figure there's some way. I started out thinking about going from northernmost point to southernmost, but that is very not possible lol.