Top 25 talk

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

So, CNU loses at Salisbury by one point on a miraculous half court buzzer beater and they slip four spots to #9 while Salisbury moves up five to #5?  Simply doesn't make sense to me....

I don't disagree, but maybe CNU was a little high to start with and Salisbury a little low. Massey has MC 1 (by the very slightest of margins over Whitman) and Salisbury 4 (with Neumann 3 ad Whitewater 5).

Then again, losing to MC at neutral and at Salisbury isn't really damning.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

At least 9 of our voters agree.

It took longer than I hoped, but the new poll is up, Greg Sager will be happy and so am I because I get to say...

"Hello, Neumann."

Stop stealing my material. I said that two days ago.

Jerry Seinfeld on line 1.

There was a character on Seinfeld named Neumann?

(Note: yeah, no crap it's from Seinfeld. Otherwise the fact that it's Neumann wouldn't even hold humor value. Thanks, Captain Obvious.)

Newman was indeed a character on NBC's seminal sitcom "Seinfeld". Played by Wayne Knight, Newman was an overweight (and rather incompetent) postal worker who lived in Jerry Seinfeld's building and acted as a foil to the show's eponymous main character. Although he (i.e. Newman) was friendly with Jerry's friend and neighbor Cosmo Kramer, he and Jerry despised each other. Jerry and Newman regularly greeted each other with a disdainful "Hello Newman", "Hello Jerry" exchange. Newman's two biggest weakness were food (notably Drake's Coffee Cake) and Elaine, Jerry's friend and ex-girlfriend.

[smedindy]

I do not understand how Neumann jumped NJCU when they have not played since December 10.  NJCU held a very high scoring team in Albertus Magnus to 30 points under their scoring average, the previous week they held TCNJ to 30 points under their scoring average.  NJCU is 9-1 and undefeated in the NJAC.  I do not get how Neumann gained 19 points to debut at 23 in the poll.  I honestly do not understand how Chicago passed them and how NJCU lost 3 points when blowing out Albertus Magnus.

NJCU must be the Rodney Dangerfield of D-III, I'm telling you, we don't get no respect.

Maybe Neumann had a good lobbyist working the room?

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

I do not understand how Neumann jumped NJCU when they have not played since December 10.  NJCU held a very high scoring team in Albertus Magnus to 30 points under their scoring average, the previous week they held TCNJ to 30 points under their scoring average.  NJCU is 9-1 and undefeated in the NJAC.  I do not get how Neumann gained 19 points to debut at 23 in the poll.  I honestly do not understand how Chicago passed them and how NJCU lost 3 points when blowing out Albertus Magnus.

NJCU must be the Rodney Dangerfield of D-III, I'm telling you, we don't get no respect.

Long story short: no quality wins. Only loss to a decent but not great middle of the pack OAC team (somewhere between 50-100 in D3 probably). A Magnus hasn't beaten anyone, and TCNJ only has Geneseo. Not even sure between them and Ramapo who should be ranked.

This time during the break (sort of) might be a good time to explore who is under-rated (who is overrated might cause problems).

Aside from teams already discussed (Whitewater, Neumann, River Falls), I would put in a word for Bethel. 7-1, lost first game of the year and hasn't had a close game since, just beat a D-II in their gym (even if their gym is biking distance from Bethel). Concordia has lost a number of games but mostly to pretty solid D-IIs, Obviously the voters have a lower opinion of basketball in MN than I do. I think Bethel is probably better than some teams that are ranked that I won't mention except to say they lost last week and moved down in the poll but not out.

Chicago has been mentioned. Their best win is over Carroll at home who beat North Park but lost to Elmhurst. Chicago lost to North Park by 1 first game of the year.

Whitworth (7-1). Hasn't really beaten anyone that great (St. Olaf has played a great schedule and is probably still a pretty good win), but if they were an eastern team, they'd be ranked.

Wartburg (9-1) has a win over Eau Claire at home, and plays North Central tonight at neutral. If they win that, they should definitely move way up. Even as it is they should probably be a little higher based on the win over Eau Claire (by 13 and scoring 100 against a good defensive team).

Susquehanna (8-1) -- I don't know really who the best team is from the 4-5 in central/eastern PA aside from Neumann, but Susquehanna has the best wins, beating Lycoming, Gwynedd-Mercy, and going out of region to play Trinity and LaGrange, which aren't great wins but better than a lot of their regional peers. Only loss is first game to Misericordia in 2OT.
Not sure how to differentiate really between them, Lycoming (10-1), Misericordia (8-1), Gwynedd (6-2), Swarthmore (8-1), but I'm really confused why Swarthmore has been the one anointed out of the group. Scranton (8-2) probably shouldn't be ranked right now but is pribably as good or better htan some of the above.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

More fun with numbers:
I looked up the teams that have top 75 ratings in both offense and defense on Massey -- because it's not efficiency-based, most teams have a high rating on either one or the other but not both (think Greenville, Grinnell). I ordered them by offense because I htink that's slightly more important than defense for basketball (if you can score, you have a higher margin of error because another team can have a hot shooting night and you can still win).

Only 4 teams are top 50 in both, so this seemed a bit restrictive (though I have had success using that has a metric for D1 postseason) -- Marietta, Benedictine, River Falls and Augustana. Adjusted for schedule, Hope might well be in there as well.

                   O              D             T         SOS
Marietta      13             45           58       43
Whitewater 16             58           74       173
Bethel         18             65           83       74
Hope           20             60          80        1
Benedictine 31            29           60         45
Whitworth   38            69          107        42
River Falls   47             19           66         26
Augustana  50             37           87        29
Va Wesleyan53            72           125       111
St. Johns    58            73            131      50
Amherst      60            40            100     210
Susq.          64            68           132      142

Interesting who isn't in this list at all.

If you lower the bar to top 100 in both, you get Chicago, Babson, Brockport, Buena Vista, Wooster, St. Thomas, Illinois Wesleyan, Skidmore, Williams,  Wheaton, Wesleyan, and Eau Claire. Of those, Buena Vista, St. Thomas, IWU, Wheaton and Eau Claire have the strongest SOS. Wooster's is pretty solid as well.

[HOPEful]

More fun with numbers:
I looked up the teams that have top 75 ratings in both offense and defense on Massey -- because it's not efficiency-based, most teams have a high rating on either one or the other but not both (think Greenville, Grinnell). I ordered them by offense because I htink that's slightly more important than defense for basketball (if you can score, you have a higher margin of error because another team can have a hot shooting night and you can still win).

Only 4 teams are top 50 in both, so this seemed a bit restrictive (though I have had success using that has a metric for D1 postseason) -- Marietta, Benedictine, River Falls and Augustana. Adjusted for schedule, Hope might well be in there as well.

                   O              D             T         SOS
Marietta      13             45           58       43
Whitewater 16             58           74       173
Bethel         18             65           83       74
Hope           20             60          80        1
Benedictine 31            29           60         45
Whitworth   38            69          107        42
River Falls   47             19           66         26
Augustana  50             37           87        29
Va Wesleyan53            72           125       111
St. Johns    58            73            131      50
Amherst      60            40            100     210
Susq.          64            68           132      142

Interesting who isn't in this list at all.

If you lower the bar to top 100 in both, you get Chicago, Babson, Brockport, Buena Vista, Wooster, St. Thomas, Illinois Wesleyan, Skidmore, Williams,  Wheaton, Wesleyan, and Eau Claire. Of those, Buena Vista, St. Thomas, IWU, Wheaton and Eau Claire have the strongest SOS. Wooster's is pretty solid as well.

Fun exercise. A tweak I would make is that I would use Knightslappy's data...
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency-ratings/

I think it's unfair to credit teams or discredit them based off of their numbers against D1, D2, NAIA, or NCCAA teams...

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

More fun with numbers:
I looked up the teams that have top 75 ratings in both offense and defense on Massey -- because it's not efficiency-based, most teams have a high rating on either one or the other but not both (think Greenville, Grinnell). I ordered them by offense because I htink that's slightly more important than defense for basketball (if you can score, you have a higher margin of error because another team can have a hot shooting night and you can still win).

Only 4 teams are top 50 in both, so this seemed a bit restrictive (though I have had success using that has a metric for D1 postseason) -- Marietta, Benedictine, River Falls and Augustana. Adjusted for schedule, Hope might well be in there as well.

                   O              D             T         SOS
Marietta      13             45           58       43
Whitewater 16             58           74       173
Bethel         18             65           83       74
Hope           20             60          80        1
Benedictine 31            29           60         45
Whitworth   38            69          107        42
River Falls   47             19           66         26
Augustana  50             37           87        29
Va Wesleyan53            72           125       111
St. Johns    58            73            131      50
Amherst      60            40            100     210
Susq.          64            68           132      142

Interesting who isn't in this list at all.

If you lower the bar to top 100 in both, you get Chicago, Babson, Brockport, Buena Vista, Wooster, St. Thomas, Illinois Wesleyan, Skidmore, Williams,  Wheaton, Wesleyan, and Eau Claire. Of those, Buena Vista, St. Thomas, IWU, Wheaton and Eau Claire have the strongest SOS. Wooster's is pretty solid as well.

Fun exercise. A tweak I would make is that I would use Knightslappy's data...
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency-ratings/

I think it's unfair to credit teams or discredit them based off of their numbers against D1, D2, NAIA, or NCCAA teams...

I think because Massey rates in all divisions, it's fine. One of the strengths of it for lower division work, actually.

I don't think you should throw out results for that reason.

You can certainly do this with efficiency rankings but something seems off about those. Maybe it's because they're throwing out non-D3 results, or maybe something else. Still interesting to look at.

[Gregory Sager]

At the Cruzin' Classic in Fort Lauderdale, #20 North Central defeated #19 Wartburg in double OT, 94-91. The Cardinals needed a buzzer-beater trey to send the game into overtime and a trey with four seconds left in the first overtime to send the game into a second extra session. The Knights missed a trey attempt in the final second of the second OT that would've sent it into a third.

[Titan Q]

UW-Oshkosh 58
#7-St. Norbert 45

[Greek Tragedy]

Happy birthday to the Guru, without Pat Coleman, we wouldn't have this site. 🎁🎂🎈

[Greek Tragedy]

UW-Oshkosh 58
#7-St. Norbert 45

I think it was 42-20 at halftime. Wow.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

UW-Oshkosh 58
#7-St. Norbert 45

And this is why I like teams that are good on offense.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

So, CNU loses at Salisbury by one point on a miraculous half court buzzer beater and they slip four spots to #9 while Salisbury moves up five to #5?  Simply doesn't make sense to me....

So this one is actually among the easiest to explain.  CNU was the better team last year.  While the rivalry kept those games close, Salisbury could not match the talent or execution of the Captains.  Despite getting Wyatt Smith back, SU lost a pretty solid chunk of their team, especially where depth is concerned, while CNU brought back the vast majority of their production.  Add to that a Final Four run and they're a top returning team, while Salisbury is a little suspect.

The Seagulls earned their Top 10 spot with good wins (and no losses), but while they weren't playing duds, the schedule wasn't exactly a murderer's row either.  CNU, on the other hand, while winning most of the games they were supposed to win, certainly haven't looked like last year's team or the one people expected this year.

Cut to Saturday.  You have a CNU team that is more talented and should be better playing not do great, while Salisbury goes toe-to-toe with them and digs real deep for a strong night.  Except, there have been enough games this year where you can't entirely write off the CNU performance.  This game sort of solidified the trends in people's minds that maybe they didn't want to buy into previously, but were sort of forced into.

Salisbury is good and CNU is not as good as we expected.  All things can change, of course, but right now those are two very evenly matched teams.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared What's Coming Up

A few games have already taken place this week; ordinarily I would post this report on Thursday morning, but I thought it would be more helpful to see a list of what's in store in the next week and a half. A number of the upcoming games are holiday tournaments, so quite a few opponents are "TBA/TBD".

(I assume the next poll is coming out on January 2 [edit: Gordon Mann has confirmed this]; that would be consistent with the last time January 1 fell on a Sunday, in the 2011-12 season.)

BTW, I am happy to see that--as I had hoped--my program now notes when a game went to overtime (see #19 Wartburg/#20 North Central below).

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	609	Babson	9-1	12/31 at #26 Chicago
#2	597	Whitman	8-0	def. (n) King's, 80-62; 12/22 vs. #4 Marietta; 12/30 vs. Crown; 12/31 vs. Buena Vista
#3	573	Amherst	8-1	12/31 vs. Keystone
#4	549	Marietta	8-1	12/21 vs. #17 Wesleyan; 12/22 vs. #2 Whitman
#5	480	Salisbury	8-0	12/28 vs. T#33 Ramapo; 12/29 vs. Hardin-Simmons
#6	474	Rochester	10-0	IDLE
#7	471	St. Norbert	5-2	LOST at UW-Oshkosh, 45-58; 12/29 vs. Finlandia; 12/30 vs. TBA
#8	449	Whitworth	7-1	won at Chapman, 78-69; 12/21 vs. Alma; 12/30 vs. Buena Vista; 12/31 vs. Crown
#9	422	Christopher Newport	6-2	12/28 vs. Pitt-Greensburg; 12/29 vs. TBD; 01/01 vs. #32 Virginia Wesleyan
#10	392	Tufts	8-2	IDLE
#11	351	UW-Eau Claire	8-1	12/28 vs. Gustavus Adolphus; 12/29 vs. UC Santa Cruz
#12	318	Benedictine	7-3	LOST to (n) Menlo, 70-72; 12/31 vs. Concordia (Wis.)
#13	241	North Park	7-1	12/19 at Manchester; 12/21 at Albion; 12/30 vs. Manchester
#14	230	Susquehanna	9-1	def. (n) Eastern, 82-76
#15	219	Hope	7-2	def. Spalding, 79-51; def. Johnson and Wales, 100-75; 12/29 vs. #37 Williams; 12/30 vs. TBA
#16	212	UW-Whitewater	8-0	def. Trine, 85-60; 12/21 vs. T#41 Ripon; 12/29 vs. Lawrence; 12/30 vs. Central
#17	209	Wesleyan	10-0	def. (n) Washington and Lee, 66-61; 12/21 vs. #4 Marietta
#18	191	Illinois Wesleyan	8-2	def. #26 Chicago, 72-54; 12/29 vs. T#29 Middlebury; 12/30 vs. TBD
#19	173	Wartburg	9-2	def. (n) SUNYIT, 70-56; LOST to (n) #20 North Central (Ill.), 91-94 2OT; 12/31 at Waldorf
#20	149	North Central (Ill.)	7-3	def. (n) #19 Wartburg, 94-91 2OT; 12/21 vs. Wheaton (Mass.); 12/29 at UW-Stevens Point
#21	136	Swarthmore	8-1	12/30 at Hood
#22	113	UW-River Falls	9-1	12/30 vs. St. Olaf
#23	68	Neumann	8-0	12/30 vs. Scranton
#24	67	Denison	8-1	IDLE
#25	60	Washington U.	6-3	12/29 vs. Ohio Wesleyan; 12/30 at T#43 Wooster

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	53	Chicago	8-2	LOST at #18 Illinois Wesleyan, 54-72; 12/31 vs. #1 Babson
#27	50	New Jersey City	9-1	12/29 vs. Gettysburg; 12/30 vs. TBA
#28	39	Emory	6-2	12/29 vs. Berry; 12/31 vs. Hampden-Sydney
T#29	35	Lycoming	10-1	12/29 vs. Fredonia; 12/30 vs. TBD
T#29	35	Middlebury	7-1	12/29 vs. #18 Illinois Wesleyan; 12/30 vs. TBA
#31	26	Keene State	6-2	12/28 at #40 WPI; 12/30 vs. University of New England
#32	25	Virginia Wesleyan	7-2	12/30 vs. Mary Washington; 01/01 at #9 Christopher Newport
T#33	20	Brockport	8-1	IDLE
T#33	20	Ramapo	9-0	12/28 vs. #5 Salisbury; 12/29 vs. Gustavus Adolphus
#35	19	Endicott	6-2	12/29 vs. Southern Maine; 12/30 vs. Regis (Mass.)
#36	11	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	6-1	12/28 vs. Emerson; 12/29 vs. Oberlin
#37	9	Williams	8-1	12/29 vs. #15 Hope; 12/30 vs. TBA
#38	8	Bethel	7-1	12/30 vs. UW-Superior
#39	6	Carroll	6-2	won at Milwaukee Engineering, 87-70; 12/22 at Loras; 12/29 at University of Dallas; 12/31 at Austin
#40	4	WPI	7-2	12/28 vs. #31 Keene State; 12/30 vs. Eastern Nazarene
T#41	3	Capital	8-3	IDLE
T#41	3	Ripon	6-0	12/21 at #16 UW-Whitewater; 12/29 at Willamette; 12/30 at Pacific
T#43	2	UW-La Crosse	6-3	12/22 at Northland; 12/31 vs. Coe
T#43	2	Wooster	5-4	12/21 at Lewis and Clark; 12/29 vs. Hobart; 12/30 vs. #25 Washington U.
T#45	1	Misericordia	8-1	12/29 vs. TBD; 12/30 vs. TBD
T#45	1	St. Thomas	6-3	IDLE

[HOPEful]

I think because Massey rates in all divisions, it's fine. One of the strengths of it for lower division work, actually.
I don't think you should throw out results for that reason.
You can certainly do this with efficiency rankings but something seems off about those. Maybe it's because they're throwing out non-D3 results, or maybe something else. Still interesting to look at.

I disagree. Personally, that fact that Massey counts non D3 games is by far the thing I like least about it. There are just too few mutual opponents to accurately quantify Hope's win against Aquinas or their loss to Cornerstone. Furthermore, when the NCAA begins doing regional rankings, they'll (kind of) throw these game out...

What is it that "seems off"? With the exception of CMS, the two are very similar. Heck, once again if you rule out CMS as an early season anomaly, Marrietta, Neumann, Babson, Salisbury, Hope, Whitman, River Falls, CNU, and Bethel feels pretty similar and perhaps better ordered than Massey's numbers.