Top 25 talk

[Pat Coleman]

Whitman and Marietta combined to go 12-25 from the FT line, 6-12 and 6-13. 

Destiny in their hands there.

[smedindy]

Whitman and Marietta combined to go 12-25 from the FT line, 6-12 and 6-13. 

Destiny in their hands there.

When that is the case, complaining about the officiating seems weak and misplaced.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

This is about the crowd I would expect to post Trump gifs.

[deleted line]

Whitman and Marietta appeared to be evenly matched teams both from a personnel and scheme/style standpoint. This game was exactly what I expected. This was a great result for the NWC and a really bad result for the guy who thinks Marietta should be #1.

Carry on

I guess only Babson can lose and not have it hurt them. Weird how they can play a trash schedule, get beat by the one decent team they did play, and be #1; but if you play good teams and lose, you're garbage. East coast bias.

If you recall, I've been advocating for Whitman to be #1.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

Whitman and Marietta combined to go 12-25 from the FT line, 6-12 and 6-13. 

Destiny in their hands there.

When that is the case, complaining about the officiating seems weak and misplaced.

Yeah, because officials never screw up and change the result of a game in so doing. Did you see the last minute of the game? Foul shots had nothing to do with it...excepting the lack of awarding them.

I wouldn't go back to that event if I was Vander Wal. Hopefully the Great Lakes Invitational takes the place of it. Was just a depressing feeling -- crap refs, no crowd, ugly building, bad shooting background. Daytona has seen its best days come and go.

MC has one of the best facilities in D3, and draws 1000+ practically every game. They should take advantage of it and only play on the road when it benefits the program (like playing other good in-region programs, or home and home with someone).

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

So Marietta has lost three out of four (thank goodness for Wilma!).  Where will they be ranked in the next poll?

Yeah I'm sure you're really concerned.

Nice display of misogyny and disrespect for a D3 school there as well.

Since you're so concerned, Massey has Marietta 16th in rating but 5th in power rating (how good you really have played, independent of the luck of the score line).

The only teams with 1-3 losses, 8+ wins, and a top 30 schedule are North Park, Illinois Wesleyan, Augustana, North Central, River Falls and Marietta (Eau Claire is close). River Falls is the only 1-loss team in that. It's like playing a number of capable teams increases your chances of losing or something.

The PWR is Whitewater, Whitman, Neumann, Hope and MC -- which all pretty much makes sense.

But you all just keep sleeping.

[nescac1]

One thing there is not, and never has been, in the D3 hoops world is east coast bias.  If there was an east coast bias, an undefeated Wesleyan team (that fairly easily handled Marietta by the way) would have been ranked higher than 17 heading into that game (I don't think that ranking was wrong, by the way, just saying it wasn't biased).  I don't see how you can attack the quality of east coast hoops a few days after a team that finished fifth in NESCAC last year just beat your guys by double-digits. 

As for Babson, you obviously don't know much about basketball outside your region if you think Babson played a "trash" schedule.  They won by double digits at Tufts, to begin with, which was a pre-season top-five team and a returning Elite 8 team.  Playing Amherst even on the road isn't just any "loss," everyone who watched that team could see it involved two of the best teams in the country playing at an incredibly high level.  Lasell, Bowdoin, Bates and Albertus Magnus are all quality, above-.500 teams with some solid talent as well.  Christopher Newport is a great win for Marietta -- similar to the Tufts win for Babson.  But the Wooster win looks a lot less impressive in hindsight considering how badly and unexpectedly Wooster has struggled this year.  I don't think Marietta's second and third-best wins are materially different in quality from Babson's, honestly.  And the fact is that Marietta has lost three times, Babson only once. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I watched the end of the Marietta game.  There were two calls in the final minute that went Whitman's way.  Without replay is really impossible to evaluate the foul.  Certainly that type of play gets whistled 98% of the time (a defender pushing a ball, and the possessing player's hands over the back of his head until he falls down), but I do think you can do that without fouling.  Until/unless we get a replay, we just can't know.  Whether it was a foul or not, it's a surprise one wasn't called.

I got to watch a decent portion of the second half and I wouldn't say one team deserved the win over the other, they were very evenly matched.  Narrative might say Marietta deserved things because they worked so hard to finally get the lead back - and that's a tough way to lose.

These are two very similar squads and I was impressed with the way Whitman responded to what was a pretty aggressive rebounding effort from Marietta; they didn't back down on the glass.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

One thing there is not, and never has been, in the D3 hoops world is east coast bias.  If there was an east coast bias, an undefeated Wesleyan team (that fairly easily handled Marietta by the way) would have been ranked higher than 17 heading into that game (I don't think that ranking was wrong, by the way, just saying it wasn't biased).  I don't see how you can attack the quality of east coast hoops a few days after a team that finished fifth in NESCAC last year just beat your guys by double-digits. 

As for Babson, you obviously don't know much about basketball outside your region if you think Babson played a "trash" schedule.  They won by double digits at Tufts, to begin with, which was a pre-season top-five team and a returning Elite 8 team.  Playing Amherst even on the road isn't just any "loss," everyone who watched that team could see it involved two of the best teams in the country playing at an incredibly high level.  Lasell, Bowdoin, Bates and Albertus Magnus are all quality, above-.500 teams with some solid talent as well.  Christopher Newport is a great win for Marietta -- similar to the Tufts win for Babson.  But the Wooster win looks a lot less impressive in hindsight considering how badly and unexpectedly Wooster has struggled this year.  I don't think Marietta's second and third-best wins are materially different in quality from Babson's, honestly.  And the fact is that Marietta has lost three times, Babson only once.

Yep, like I said, bias, right here.

You're completely delusional, and you miss the point on scheduling.

[sac]

Babson's schedule is #40 on massey, that's top 10% of D3.  That's not trash.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

I watched the end of the Marietta game.  There were two calls in the final minute that went Whitman's way.  Without replay is really impossible to evaluate the foul.  Certainly that type of play gets whistled 98% of the time (a defender pushing a ball, and the possessing player's hands over the back of his head until he falls down), but I do think you can do that without fouling.  Until/unless we get a replay, we just can't know.  Whether it was a foul or not, it's a surprise one wasn't called.

I got to watch a decent portion of the second half and I wouldn't say one team deserved the win over the other, they were very evenly matched.  Narrative might say Marietta deserved things because they worked so hard to finally get the lead back - and that's a tough way to lose.

These are two very similar squads and I was impressed with the way Whitman responded to what was a pretty aggressive rebounding effort from Marietta; they didn't back down on the glass.

All fair enough. I thought it was obvious that Whitman was playing superaggressive on the press not really caring if they got a foul, but the refs refused to call about 3; the last one being the most ridiculous. You can't just go through a guy and take the ball. A lot like the officials at John Carroll, really. Marietta never gets that benefit of doubt even at home because they never have hometown refs -- they always come from up north somewhere.

Probably Marietta having their tallest player would have helped with the rebounding, though Dixon did a great job (and probably would have improved the perimeter defense having him at the 3 too). But with Thome they are normally dominant on the boards -- not so much because he gets a ton of rebounds but he prevents someone else from getting it and then usually Edwards or a guard does. Both teams did well on the others' best perimeter guys. Realistically, Butler wouldn't go 6 for 6 again and that was basically the difference.

I go back to the rationale for not dropping Babson when they lost to Amherst and say if you're being honest and consistent, you have to treat this pretty much the same way. Whitman's really good -- that's no surprise to me, I think I was on that earlier than most. The Wesleyan game was a fluke but good luck getting you all to believe that -- Wesleyan had just played awful the previous game, and Marietta shot pretty much the worst they have all year (in a terrible shooting environment, should never play there again).

I think the power rating of 5 is fair, but obviously the poll doesn't work like that. But they beat CNU who is top 10, and Wesleyan I assume will be top 10, and Whitman really should be #1 but probably won't be because east coast bias. So I'd say they should be somewhere around 10-ish now. Doesn't get any easier with 2 tough OAC road games, then this ridiculous stretch is over.

That's something else that should be considered that probably won't be...does anyone else in the country play 7 of 8 games away from home in Dec/Jan? Not sure how their league schedule ended up that way, but it's certainly not a help.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

If anything, after that game, I'd be more inclined to move Whitman DOWN a little - but that would require having someone to put above them, and those are few and far between.  We're just going to have to get used to just about every team being overrated this year.

This is the point in the season where teams real strengths and weaknesses are starting to be more apparent.  Marietta is a very good team, but they've now shown, over a couple games, that they struggle with aggressive bigs.  Whitman, St. Norbert, and CNU have similar issues.  You've also got a series of teams with strong post players who could give those teams problems, but might not be "better" overall.

Now you get into making choices - just because I think Team A could beat Team B head-to-head (largely because of matchup problems), do I rate Team B higher, even if I think they'd do worse against the rest of the Top 10 overall than Team A would?  I'm not even sure yet how I'll answer those questions.

[sac]

Minnesota has 7 pretty good teams, but their schedules are a little tougher across the board, partly due to access to the Wisconsin teams for non-cons.

The MIAC has traditionally been overrated, and it still is as a whole. But St. Thomas, over the past decade, has been one of the best programs in the entire division, and the Tommies have the hardware to prove it. Just don't let that fool you into thinking that the Tommies are reflective of the whole league.

What league or leagues should be rated higher than the MIAC and who is doing the ratings?  I guess you could say since they only play 5 non-conference games you have less confidence in their ranking, but that should tend to make them look worse than they are as often as it makes them look better.  The lack of post-season success for MIAC teams not named St. Thomas can also be partly blamed on this 20 game conference schedule which brings everyone's SOS down to .500 and makes it tougher to get at-large bids. Bethel has to be one of the best teams in the d3hoops.com era to have never made it to the tourney.  The Royals have 3 Massey top 25 finishes in the last 8 years.

I saw this the other day and it tweaked my curiosity.  I only have 10 years worth of w/l's but here's the top 10 winningest teams in the last decade who have missed making an NCAA tournament appearance.

1.  MSOE              --163
2.  Lakeland        --161
3.  Cal Lutheran  --154
     Grinnell          --154
5.  Bethel           --153
6.  Augsburg       --152
     Nichols           --152
     Oglethorpe    --152
9.  Lewis & Clark  --151
10.  Juniata          --150
       Keystone       --150


---Nichols, Juniata and Keystone have some ECAC post-season wins I wasn't able to pull out.  Wabash is next on the list at 147.

---IF you were to extend this back to 1998 I have to think Bethel would be at or near the top. 

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

Babson's schedule is #40 on massey, that's top 10% of D3.  That's not trash.

What are you talking about? Are we just making things up now? It's 112 and their league won't bring it up.

Endicott is borderline top 100, Tufts is top 50-70 (61 right now). And that's all they have. They lost to the best team they've played, which is not even top 20. the other teams being touted on their schedule would be 7th or 8th at best in most power conferences, and dead last in the WIAC. So would beating Heidelberg at home be a quality win for Marietta, or IWU beating Elmhurst? Babson's first game in a hostile environment was Amherst -- the 10th game of the year.

Putting Babson #1 based on what they have done this season is completely crazy. Amherst's schedule is even worse but at least they beat Babson. They're both being given vastly more credit than they have earned.

[ElRetornodelEspencio]

Minnesota has 7 pretty good teams, but their schedules are a little tougher across the board, partly due to access to the Wisconsin teams for non-cons.

The MIAC has traditionally been overrated, and it still is as a whole. But St. Thomas, over the past decade, has been one of the best programs in the entire division, and the Tommies have the hardware to prove it. Just don't let that fool you into thinking that the Tommies are reflective of the whole league.

What league or leagues should be rated higher than the MIAC and who is doing the ratings?  I guess you could say since they only play 5 non-conference games you have less confidence in their ranking, but that should tend to make them look worse than they are as often as it makes them look better.  The lack of post-season success for MIAC teams not named St. Thomas can also be partly blamed on this 20 game conference schedule which brings everyone's SOS down to .500 and makes it tougher to get at-large bids. Bethel has to be one of the best teams in the d3hoops.com era to have never made it to the tourney.  The Royals have 3 Massey top 25 finishes in the last 8 years.

I saw this the other day and it tweaked my curiosity.  I only have 10 years worth of w/l's but here's the top 10 winningest teams in the last decade who have missed making an NCAA tournament appearance.

1.  MSOE              --163
2.  Lakeland        --161
3.  Cal Lutheran  --154
     Grinnell          --154
5.  Bethel           --153
6.  Augsburg       --152
     Nichols           --152
     Oglethorpe    --152
9.  Lewis & Clark  --151
10.  Juniata          --150
       Keystone       --150


---Nichols, Juniata and Keystone have some ECAC post-season wins I wasn't able to pull out.  Wabash is next on the list at 147.

---IF you were to extend this back to 1998 I have to think Bethel would be at or near the top.

Bethel and Augsburg would have by far the toughest schedule on that list.

One thing that's being lost here in talking about St. Thomas and their dominance is that it would also hurt other MIAC teams, given the lack of at-large bids in D3. Bethel got robbed a couple of years back in just such a way. Beat St. Olaf 3 times. Beat St. Thomas 1 of 3 and lost by 3 in the championship. Didn't get a bid. They're proof that you're better off playing a weaker schedule. Working for Babson.

[sac]

Babson's schedule is #40 on massey, that's top 10% of D3.  That's not trash.

What are you talking about? Are we just making things up now? It's 112 and their league won't bring it up.

Endicott is borderline top 100, Tufts is top 50-70 (61 right now). And that's all they have. They lost to the best team they've played, which is not even top 20. the other teams being touted on their schedule would be 7th or 8th at best in most power conferences, and dead last in the WIAC. So would beating Heidelberg at home be a quality win for Marietta, or IWU beating Elmhurst? Babson's first game in a hostile environment was Amherst -- the 10th game of the year.

Putting Babson #1 based on what they have done this season is completely crazy. Amherst's schedule is even worse but at least they beat Babson. They're both being given vastly more credit than they have earned.

My mistake I mixed numbers with teams.   112 is still top 25% of D3 and not trash.  I could also get into why massey's SOS isn't actually SOS but frequently gets sited as so, including by me but I won't.

If you want another metric try knightslappy's regional ranking data link which uses the same criteria the NCAA uses for SOS and really the only SOS calculation that matters, even if it is flawed.    Babson is at .664  Marietta is at .602   still not trash.