Top 25 talk

[AndOne]

Add Junior Pierson Wofford to the discussion on Augustana. Wofford was removed from last year's team by the college (not a coaching decision) in late January, so he wasn't part of the playoff run.  Circumstances of the dismissal were a bit hazy, but he is now listed on the 2017-2018 roster. Wofford was the team's number 2 rebounder and was averaging over 10 points per game at the time of his dismissal.  The return of the highly athletic Wofford will be a significant addition for this year's Viking roster.

That's all and good... but I think this actually raises more questions than it answers... especially, how long until Wofford potentially gets into trouble again and is off the roster. I will take this news with a grain of sand and wait a bit before it peaks my interest.

Its highly curious why an offense serious enough for the school to remove a player from the team didn't elicit the same measure of action from the head coach, Grey Giovanine.
What was Giovanine looking at? Or, evidently, not looking at even though it was apparently obvious to the school administration.     

[WUPHF]

There was at least one incident, though who was at fault and who wasn't seems a bit murky, that he was involved in... then suddenly he was released from school in the middle of the season. Too many questions, not enough answers to understand what has been happening.

It is interesting to see a player dropped from the school and team with an open possibility of returning.

It has been an interesting time though in judicial affairs as the Title IX Dear Colleague letter had everyone revisiting their campus policies.  And, clearly in many cases, being much more cautious than just a few years ago.  Not suggesting that this is Title IX related, but that regulatory changes have ripple effects.

[HOPEful]

u]last[/u] year's "pretty weak" record carry as far as how a team is expected to do this season? Especially when they will get the All-American back, and have added a D2 transfer who was ranked as the #41 player in Illinois two years ago, and another transfer who led his (D3) team and was 5th in the conference in scoring last season.

Lastly, keep in mind that last year's pretty weak record included a win over Augustana in the CCIW conference tournament, a win over a consistently strong Wooster team in the first round of the national tournament, and a one point loss to Elite Eight member Hanover (at Hanover) in the second round.   

Augustana is a great team. But remember, they had 9 losses last year. They got hot at the right time. I fully expect them to carry their excellence throughout this campaign. However, North Central ain't too bad either. 

So much to agree with here. Generally, I can't stand pre-season rankings. I understand some voters are better than others at reassessing their votes based on actual performance, but for the most part, I see a lot of "I can't move ______ up because no one ahead of them lost..." At this point, we can only say that on paper, Whitman and North Central both have the chance to be EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD next season.

As for Augustana, I think we are going a little overboard on the hype train after their playoff run. Sure they strung together a bunch of great wins. But St. Thomas, Whitewater, Wartburg, Hanover, Williams wasn't exactly the same as going through Husson, Skidmore, Tufts, Keene State, and Whitman like Babson did... Of those wins, @ Whitewater might have been the best win on the list, and last years Whitewater team wasn't the same as we've seen in years past.

[nescac1]

As for North Central, personally, I would have them in the 4-7 range to start the season.  That is a pretty massive leap for a team that finished last year with double-digit losses and entirely outside the top 25.  I think pre-season rankings have to at least SOMEWHAT account for how a team finished the season, wouldn't you?  Obviously North Central looks much better on paper next year than they did to end last year.  But if they are ranked, say, 5th, that reflects an enormous and highly unusual leap forward for a team that finished entirely unranked.  I think that in their case, that type of leap is warranted.  But it's hardly the egregious insult you seem to be suggesting to say that, hey, maybe top THREE is a tiny bit high when you take last year's performance into account, especially considering three of last year's four Final Four teams graduated two contributors COMBINED between the three of them, and several other highly ranked squads bring back pretty stacked rosters too (Hanover in particular, who edged out North Central in the tourney and returns all but one guy).  North Central has several different new/returning pieces as you note next year vs. how they ended the season.  But a team isn't just a collection of brilliant individual talents -- if it was, Whitewater would have gone undefeated, as at least on Whitewater fan predicted, based solely on the pedigree of its roster.  It remains to be seen how the pieces will fit together.  But clearly they are in the top-five in terms of collections of individual talent.     

Babson and Augustana were dead even in the title game, as reflected by a game-saving play required to secure the victory.  I'd say that Augustana's string of wins heading into the title game was actually tougher than Babson's string of wins (Keene barely made the tourney at all, Tufts was very good but also pretty banged up when they played, and Husson was not an impressive win, whereas all of Auggie's wins were vs. tough and talented opponents), but at worst, I'd say they were roughly equal.  There is no question that, at the END of the season, Augustana was playing at essentially as high a level as any team in the country -- and they return pretty much the same team, with a lot of room for upside growth considering how many young guys they relied upon.  Usually players make a much bigger jump from frosh to sophomores than they do from juniors to seniors, so that is why I think they will actually be far tougher next year with three rising sophomores returning to the rotation (plus three key rising juniors). 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Per the idea that the college pulled the player and not the coach... I think the initial reference didn't need to mention the coach and the follow-up then assumed the point was the coach wouldn't do it.

We don't know what happened and in the grand scheme of things, if something happened severe enough for the college to remove a student... it doesn't matter what the coach wanted to do or not - even if he would have done the same. The college trumps all. I don't think Giovanine had anything to do with it. He has to abide by what the college wants to do and to suggest (or allude as I think happened purposely or not) he didn't remove Wofford or wouldn't have done it is a step too far an assumption. The college chose to remove the student. There is no need to care otherwise.

[AndOne]

nescac1,

I think when you base an analysis of something current on "how they finished last year," you might need to differentiate between how they finished with regard to what their total record was and how they fonished playing at the end of the year. North Central finished 18-11. Not that impressive overall. However, to only consider those numbers in assessing this season's team is, I believe, a bit shortsighted. Because equally important is how they finished playing near the end of the year. And, in NCC's case, they were playing some of their best basketball at season's end. Over the last 12 games they finished 9-3 with the 3 losses being a 6 point overtime loss to the national champion runner up (Augie), a 4 point overtime loss to the CCIW tourney #1 seed (Carthage), and a 1 point loss to Elite Eight member Hanover. Incidentally, they beat both Carthage and Augie in the conference tourney.
So, if you're asking if last year's record should be the primary factor in this year's assessment, my answers is no. I think how they were actually playing over the final part of the season is more important than their final record.

Lastly, just to be clear. There is no way in hell I was suggesting NCC should be the pre-season #1-3 team.
I agree with you that 4-7 is about right. The main thing is that, given the last time they played NCC won, the Cardinals shouldn't be more than one or two spots behind wherever Augie is placed.

[nescac1]

I think we are rougly on the same page in terms of actual rankings AndOne-- were I ranking (and I am not one of the rankers) barring something dramatic in terms of preseason injuries, etc. I'd probably also go Whitworth (when all is said and done they have earned the top spot even though I think it's very close), Augustana, and then it gets really tricky.  I think Williams will end up in the number 3 spot, I don't know if they are likely to be quite THAT good but there is no other obvious better choice really, then maybe North Central, Marietta, Hanover, Whitewater, Eau-Claire, Christopher Newport, Tufts, Babson, Ramapo, Swarthmore, something along those lines.  I'm sure I am forgetting a few teams with top-10 caliber groups returning. 

I may be a bit biased on Augustana because they played SO well vs. Williams in Salem.  The Ephs came into that game on a major role including upsetting an elite offensive Middlebury team on the road in the Elite 8.  But while the Ephs (during the course of the year, typically a stronger defensive team) played well on offense other than missing a slew of (for them) very makeable three point shots, they simply could not slow Auggie's offense down.  Now, it might have been a somewhat aberrant offensive performance ... Auggie seemingly could not miss from anywhere early in the game, including some really deep threes, and Orange hit a bunch of shots with a very good defender draped all over him.  But man did Auggie seem scary in light of just how inexperienced a roster they put out there. 

[AndOne]

As all of us who know the difference between a 🏀 and a hole in the wall know, even very good teams sometimes have very stinky games.
Last season, in the next to the last CCIW game, NCC beat IWU (probably the CCIW's #3 team) by 2 points in OT. Three nights later, with Augustana playing to try to host the conference tourney, IWU basically obliterated Augie by 30! It was Augie's third loss in a row. Two games later NCC beat Augie in the conference tourney final. Augie then reignited and rode a hot streak to the national title game.
Sometimes you just don't know what you're gonna get. 🤔

[WUPHF]

[...] I don't know if they are likely to be quite THAT good but there is no other obvious better choice really, then maybe North Central, Marietta, Hanover, Whitewater, Eau-Claire, Christopher Newport, Tufts, Babson, Ramapo, Swarthmore, something along those lines.  I'm sure I am forgetting a few teams with top-10 caliber groups returning. 

I was looking at Tufts recently as they are coming to St. Louis for a possible match-up with Washington University.  They are losing two seniors that started nearly ever game and scored in double figures, but have a lot of rising seniors who either started or play off the bench.  If you do not mind me asking: what am I missing on the stat sheet?

[Red and black]

nescac1,

I think when you base an analysis of something current on "how they finished last year," you might need to differentiate between how they finished with regard to what their total record was and how they fonished playing at the end of the year. North Central finished 18-11. Not that impressive overall. However, to only consider those numbers in assessing this season's team is, I believe, a bit shortsighted. Because equally important is how they finished playing near the end of the year. And, in NCC's case, they were playing some of their best basketball at season's end. Over the last 12 games they finished 9-3 with the 3 losses being a 6 point overtime loss to the national champion runner up (Augie), a 4 point overtime loss to the CCIW tourney #1 seed (Carthage), and a 1 point loss to Elite Eight member Hanover. Incidentally, they beat both Carthage and Augie in the conference tourney.
So, if you're asking if last year's record should be the primary factor in this year's assessment, my answers is no. I think how they were actually playing over the final part of the season is more important than their final record.

Lastly, just to be clear. There is no way in hell I was suggesting NCC should be the pre-season #1-3 team.
I agree with you that 4-7 is about right. The main thing is that, given the last time they played NCC won, the Cardinals shouldn't be more than one or two spots behind wherever Augie is placed.

Based off of this post, where do you have carthage?  As you referenced they were the CCIW #1 seed. Have majority of key contributors back and as you pointed out is important, had a very successful finish to the year. They went 7-1 in the back half of the CCIW round robin Including wins vs Augie and their 2nd win against north central.

I could see north central 4-7 as well, but you would have to really convince me how they could be far ahead of Carthage.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Babson and Augustana were dead even in the title game, as reflected by a game-saving play required to secure the victory.  I'd say that Augustana's string of wins heading into the title game was actually tougher than Babson's string of wins (Keene barely made the tourney at all, Tufts was very good but also pretty banged up when they played, and Husson was not an impressive win, whereas all of Auggie's wins were vs. tough and talented opponents), but at worst, I'd say they were roughly equal.

That's part of the quandry for a voter, though.  Babson played much, much better against Whitman than they did against Augustana and Whitman found themselves in a similar place at the end of their game - how do I factor that in?  Augustana's rate of improvement over the course of February/March was pretty spectacular, which adds some wrinkles in ranking them - they were markedly better in Salem than they were even the weekend before; that makes it tough.  Honestly, Babson probably wasn't "better" than either of those teams - like, if they played 100 times, I don't know that I'd pick Babson to win 50 - but Babson is definitely the team I'd pick to win one game when it mattered.  That's even more confusing.

There's a still a couple months of pontificating to do, but right now, Whitman appears the more consistent, mature squad - although if Augustana can improve over the course of this season like they did last year, they could be all-time good by the end of it.  Deep, big, talented - a tough matchup for anyone.

I'm just glad we've got a lot of great teams this year - so many squads were junior heavy last season.  It's going to be great fun.

[nescac1]

Admittedly, I know nothing about Carthage so won't opine on them ... I'm sure they aren't the only candidate for a top-10 slot that I failed to mention. 

As for Tufts, they are notoriously hard to predict from year to year and at times even from game to game, historically.  Usually they have a lot talent, but play up to their talent level some years more than others.  They play very very fast and can be hard to deal with if you aren't prepared for their style.  Next year Tufts has LOADS of talent and depth returning on the wings but as you note big question marks at the key positions of point guard and center.  The center position in particular poses an issue.  They play a four-out one-in style that requires a strong center who can rebound, provide a post presence on offense, and protect the rim, and with their top two centers departing and only one guy (Patrick Racy, who is OK but a bit undersized and not really a dominant presence inside) who even remotely resembles a big man on the returning roster, that is by far the biggest question mark.  But perhaps they have someone coming in who can play the 5 (I imagine they probably do). 

On the plus side, Vinny Pace is a legit all-American talent who was limited all of last year after returning from an ACL tear suffered in the 2016 NCAAs.  He showed what he can do in the St. John Fisher game in the NCAAs.  Along with Savage, Dayton, Engvall, Feldman, and Garrett, they have a slew of fairly interchangeable talented, experienced guys to play at the 2-3-4, which is basically the same position at Tufts.  The only true point guard who has played at all is Thomas Lapham, who is a steady, experienced guy who can shoot, but who has been banged up a lot over his career and is a lot less dynamic of a creator than the guy he replaces, Tarik Smith.  Still, as a senior I think he will be solid enough with all the talent around him, and if not, it's possible that one of the natural two guards slides to the point or that Vinny Pace plays as a point-forward. 

But if they can't find a big man who can help as a frosh or transfer, they are going to be murdered inside next year, just as they were last year when Palleschi was hurt (they were 6-4 in the games he missed / his first game back when he was a non-factor, and 19-3 in the games he played in, with two of those three losses coming against Babson, so the difference was dramatic).  Palleschi just did SO much for them especially on the defensive end where he was an elite rim protector.  And again, his backup Drew Madsen, who did a capable job at least of filling in, also graduates. 

For those reasons, I could see Tufts topping out at a top-10 team again next year, or entirely out of the top 25 ... it all depends on whether they can figure something out at the 5.   

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Let's keep something in mind... no team... NO TEAM... has gone from preseason to championship as the number one team in every poll in the history of the D3hoops.com MBB Top 25. That isn't a knock on the voters. That is an indication of a number of things including how hard it is to rank teams, how many top teams there are, and how it could be anyone's night at any given time in men's basketball.

[iwumichigander]

Per the idea that the college pulled the player and not the coach... I think the initial reference didn't need to mention the coach and the follow-up then assumed the point was the coach wouldn't do it.

We don't know what happened and in the grand scheme of things, if something happened severe enough for the college to remove a student... it doesn't matter what the coach wanted to do or not - even if he would have done the same. The college trumps all. I don't think Giovanine had anything to do with it. He has to abide by what the college wants to do and to suggest (or allude as I think happened purposely or not) he didn't remove Wofford or wouldn't have done it is a step too far an assumption. The college chose to remove the student. There is no need to care otherwise.

as I recall, this was basically a non- basketball situation wherein the college administration made the decisions, and the athletic department was basically told to not get involved.  If I were the AD or head coach, I do not make a move roster or otherwise, until the college administration renders a decision and sets out the action to be taken and when it is to be taken.  It was an unfortunate set of circumstances, and hopefully the student learned a lesson albeit the hard way. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Per the idea that the college pulled the player and not the coach... I think the initial reference didn't need to mention the coach and the follow-up then assumed the point was the coach wouldn't do it.

We don't know what happened and in the grand scheme of things, if something happened severe enough for the college to remove a student... it doesn't matter what the coach wanted to do or not - even if he would have done the same. The college trumps all. I don't think Giovanine had anything to do with it. He has to abide by what the college wants to do and to suggest (or allude as I think happened purposely or not) he didn't remove Wofford or wouldn't have done it is a step too far an assumption. The college chose to remove the student. There is no need to care otherwise.

as I recall, this was basically a non- basketball situation wherein the college administration made the decisions, and the athletic department was basically told to not get involved.  If I were the AD or head coach, I do not make a move roster or otherwise, until the college administration renders a decision and sets out the action to be taken and when it is to be taken.  It was an unfortunate set of circumstances, and hopefully the student learned a lesson albeit the hard way.

Exactly on all points.