Top 25 talk

[WUPHF]

As for Tufts, they are notoriously hard to predict from year to year and at times even from game to game, historically.  Usually they have a lot talent, but play up to their talent level some years more than others.  They play very very fast and can be hard to deal with if you aren't prepared for their style.  [...]

Thanks for the detailed response.

Tufts and Washington University will play Webster and Wabash respectively and meet in game two should they both advance (or lose).  Looking forward to it.

No one would be surprised to hear me say that Washington University is a Top 10 team this season as they were a season ago.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As for Tufts, they are notoriously hard to predict from year to year and at times even from game to game, historically.  Usually they have a lot talent, but play up to their talent level some years more than others.  They play very very fast and can be hard to deal with if you aren't prepared for their style.  [...]

Thanks for the detailed response.

Tufts and Washington University will play Webster and Wabash respectively and meet in game two should they both advance (or lose).  Looking forward to it.

No one would be surprised to hear me say that Washington University is a Top 10 team this season as they were a season ago.

That's the funny thing... I just haven't seen WashU that good (Top 10 good) in a few years. It isn't a knock or anything... I just have expected better and maybe I have gotten so used to the great teams WashU has had that the recent teams have left me yearning for more. I can't remember how I voted last year off the top of my head, but I do remember not being high on the Bears for several seasons now. I would love to see WashU return to the days of incredibly tough-to-stop basketball... but I think with more parity in Division III men's basketball either no one will be able to achieve that level of greatness or I need to adjust my expectations ... again (LOL).

FYI - not trying to stir the pot here. WashU was 21-6 last season after a surprising 15-10 the season before. And an underwhelming 20-6 in 2014-15. I need to research the team more and chat with some people before I am willing to buy in they are a Top 10 team to start the season. Not saying they won't be... sometimes teams like WashU rise to the surface (top). I am just not seeing it at this point.

[sac]

WashU was a top 10 quality team last year, easy.  They got a bad break having to play the tournament on the road at Holland.  If they host that first weekend which they were certainly in line to do they're likely a Sweet 16 team and certainly capable of beating Augustana and making the Final Four.

Totally different narrative entering 2018 if that had happened.

[HOPEful]

WashU was a top 10 quality team last year, easy.  They got a bad break having to play the tournament on the road at Holland....

Or against a Senior who went 10 for 11 from 3 point land...

[WUPHF]

That's the funny thing... I just haven't seen WashU that good (Top 10 good) in a few years. It isn't a knock or anything... I just have expected better and maybe I have gotten so used to the great teams WashU has had that the recent teams have left me yearning for more. I can't remember how I voted last year off the top of my head, but I do remember not being high on the Bears for several seasons now. I would love to see WashU return to the days of incredibly tough-to-stop basketball... but I think with more parity in Division III men's basketball either no one will be able to achieve that level of greatness or I need to adjust my expectations ... again (LOL).

FYI - not trying to stir the pot here. WashU was 21-6 last season after a surprising 15-10 the season before. And an underwhelming 20-6 in 2014-15. I need to research the team more and chat with some people before I am willing to buy in they are a Top 10 team to start the season. Not saying they won't be... sometimes teams like WashU rise to the surface (top). I am just not seeing it at this point.

I was going to make a joke about you and your preseason ballot, but I gave you a hard time last season on more than one occasion (you probably do not remember).  And, it is hard to convey a friendly disagreement when you disagree repeatedly on the same issue.

The 2015-2016 season was tough, but the Bears returned only one starter and one reserve who played around 10 minutes.  2016-2017 was a very successful regular season in my mind, but the postseason...

If you think about the program, they have only missed two postseasons since the national championships, but they have not be able to make it past the first or second round.  And, five of those games were played at home.  I understand how that may weigh on the mind of the voters.

[WUPHF]

Or against a Senior who went 10 for 11 from 3 point land...

I know I do not need to tell you, but in deference to another great performance, Dante Hawkins had a magnificent game too, though Cody Stuive was just... 

[hopefan]

As for Tufts, they are notoriously hard to predict from year to year and at times even from game to game, historically.  Usually they have a lot talent, but play up to their talent level some years more than others.  They play very very fast and can be hard to deal with if you aren't prepared for their style.  [...]

Thanks for the detailed response.

Tufts and Washington University will play Webster and Wabash respectively and meet in game two should they both advance (or lose).  Looking forward to it.

No one would be surprised to hear me say that Washington University is a Top 10 team this season as they were a season ago.

I have to agree with WUH that Wash U is a top 10 candidate... their inside game is absolutely loaded, and they have 3 small quick guards who understand the flow of the offense and get the ball to the big men.   The one thing missing would seem to be a pure perimeter shooter... there seems to be no one to go to if the ball is going inside out...   Knupp, Kucera, Nester are all pretty much penetrate and dish guys, and the big men are 15 feet and in shooters.... maybe a new face can help?

[nescac1]

I was really confused because I was thinking that Wash U. was not even a prospective top-25 team, until I looked again and realized they have already posted next season's roster!  I thought all those seniors had graduated ...  .  I'd say they certainly have the look of a pre-season top 5 team with a loaded senior class featuring five likely starters.  The early game against (maybe) Tufts would be very interesting indeed.  Tufts will surely look to make the pace frenetic, where they have an advantage vs. most teams, because there is no way they can hang with all of Wash U's size in the half court.  As usual Wash U. seems to have a brutal non-conference schedule but should post a gaudy record anyway because the UAA doesn't seem all that strong next year, relative to historical standards, outside of them.   Rochester and CMU in particular are likely to be dramatically worse.   

[WUPHF]

The one thing missing would seem to be a pure perimeter shooter... there seems to be no one to go to if the ball is going inside out...   Knupp, Kucera, Nester are all pretty much penetrate and dish guys, and the big men are 15 feet and in shooters.... maybe a new face can help?

Definitely an issue. 

As with the last few seasons, this team is going to be winning games two points at a time.  They may be scoring three points the old fashioned way more than from outside.

Knupp was a 40 percent shooter as a sophomore.  I have no way of knowing, but I am going to bet that he gets asked to take a lot more shots.  Nester was a 45% shooter in high school and was the best three point shooter a season ago at 38 percent.  He will probably take a lot more shots.

[WUPHF]

As usual Wash U. seems to have a brutal non-conference schedule but should post a gaudy record anyway because the UAA doesn't seem all that strong next year, relative to historical standards, outside of them.   Rochester and CMU in particular are likely to be dramatically worse.

The conference will be weak next season.

I think they will have 4-5 teams that have nice seasons and maybe they find a way to get two in the tourney.  I was down on Emory, but I have been coming around lately. 

Maybe I am just mesmerized by the fact that they have a incoming freshmen who scored 2,300 in high school.

[AndOne]

nescac1,

I think when you base an analysis of something current on "how they finished last year," you might need to differentiate between how they finished with regard to what their total record was and how they fonished playing at the end of the year. North Central finished 18-11. Not that impressive overall. However, to only consider those numbers in assessing this season's team is, I believe, a bit shortsighted. Because equally important is how they finished playing near the end of the year. And, in NCC's case, they were playing some of their best basketball at season's end. Over the last 12 games they finished 9-3 with the 3 losses being a 6 point overtime loss to the national champion runner up (Augie), a 4 point overtime loss to the CCIW tourney #1 seed (Carthage), and a 1 point loss to Elite Eight member Hanover. Incidentally, they beat both Carthage and Augie in the conference tourney.
So, if you're asking if last year's record should be the primary factor in this year's assessment, my answers is no. I think how they were actually playing over the final part of the season is more important than their final record.

Lastly, just to be clear. There is no way in hell I was suggesting NCC should be the pre-season #1-3 team.
I agree with you that 4-7 is about right. The main thing is that, given the last time they played NCC won, the Cardinals shouldn't be more than one or two spots behind wherever Augie is placed.

Based off of this post, where do you have carthage?  As you referenced they were the CCIW #1 seed. Have majority of key contributors back and as you pointed out is important, had a very successful finish to the year. They went 7-1 in the back half of the CCIW round robin Including wins vs Augie and their 2nd win against north central.

I could see north central 4-7 as well, but you would have to really convince me how they could be far ahead of Carthage.

First of all, I think that the failure of Carthage to finish in last season's final Top 25, or even in the ORV, will hurt their chances of being included in either category in this year's pre-season rankings, if that's what you're asking.

You mentioned that they were the #1 seed in the conference tourney, have several key contributors back, and finished well including a 2nd win against NCC before losing to them in the conference tournament. However, keep in mind that two other schools won as many conference games as they did, that they lost both their leading scorer and their (very underrated) leading assist guy, and that the game they really needed in the conference tourney got away (to NCC).

Pluses for the upcoming season include the possible further development of Brad Perry, the emergence of Kienan Baltimore as a future all-conference player, the all-around play of Brad Kruse, and the big shot making ability of Jordan Thomas. Questions needing consideration include who will assume the top scorer position, who will QB the team and get the ball to the shooters/scorers mentioned above, and did they recruit any newbie who will emerge as a significant contributor. Disappointment should reign if CC doesn't finish in the top four of the conference and qualify for the tournament. I can see CC and IWU being top contenders for the 3rd and 4th spots. If they can get into the national tourney and win a game there, final Top 20-25 or ORV ranking is possible.

Lastly, as a direct comparison between CC and NCC heading into this season, keep in mind that in addition to what they had last year NCC gets Connor Raridon back, adds a D2 transfer, adds another transfer who led his team in scoring and was 5th in conference scoring, and adds, among others, a super athletic freshman who is both explosive on the offensive interior and plays a smothering brand of defense, along with another freshman who finished second in scoring in DuPage County, a great provider of top level D3 talent. IDK what noteworthy additions CC is making which helps lead me to the conclusion that there is a rather large gap between where NCC is likely to be ranked pre-season, and where CC may be ranked.
Hope that answers your question.

[Red and black]

nescac1,

I think when you base an analysis of something current on "how they finished last year," you might need to differentiate between how they finished with regard to what their total record was and how they fonished playing at the end of the year. North Central finished 18-11. Not that impressive overall. However, to only consider those numbers in assessing this season's team is, I believe, a bit shortsighted. Because equally important is how they finished playing near the end of the year. And, in NCC's case, they were playing some of their best basketball at season's end. Over the last 12 games they finished 9-3 with the 3 losses being a 6 point overtime loss to the national champion runner up (Augie), a 4 point overtime loss to the CCIW tourney #1 seed (Carthage), and a 1 point loss to Elite Eight member Hanover. Incidentally, they beat both Carthage and Augie in the conference tourney.
So, if you're asking if last year's record should be the primary factor in this year's assessment, my answers is no. I think how they were actually playing over the final part of the season is more important than their final record.

Lastly, just to be clear. There is no way in hell I was suggesting NCC should be the pre-season #1-3 team.
I agree with you that 4-7 is about right. The main thing is that, given the last time they played NCC won, the Cardinals shouldn't be more than one or two spots behind wherever Augie is placed.

Based off of this post, where do you have carthage?  As you referenced they were the CCIW #1 seed. Have majority of key contributors back and as you pointed out is important, had a very successful finish to the year. They went 7-1 in the back half of the CCIW round robin Including wins vs Augie and their 2nd win against north central.

I could see north central 4-7 as well, but you would have to really convince me how they could be far ahead of Carthage.

First of all, I think that the failure of Carthage to finish in last season's final Top 25, or even in the ORV, will hurt their chances of being included in either category in this year's pre-season rankings, if that's what you're asking.

You mentioned that they were the #1 seed in the conference tourney, have several key contributors back, and finished well including a 2nd win against NCC before losing to them in the conference tournament. However, keep in mind that two other schools won as many conference games as they did, that they lost both their leading scorer and their (very underrated) leading assist guy, and that the game they really needed in the conference tourney got away (to NCC).

Pluses for the upcoming season include the possible further development of Brad Perry, the emergence of Kienan Baltimore as a future all-conference player, the all-around play of Brad Kruse, and the big shot making ability of Jordan Thomas. Questions needing consideration include who will assume the top scorer position, who will QB the team and get the ball to the shooters/scorers mentioned above, and did they recruit any newbie who will emerge as a significant contributor. Disappointment should reign if CC doesn't finish in the top four of the conference and qualify for the tournament. I can see CC and IWU being top contenders for the 3rd and 4th spots. If they can get into the national tourney and win a game there, final Top 20-25 or ORV ranking is possible.

Lastly, as a direct comparison between CC and NCC heading into this season, keep in mind that in addition to what they had last year NCC gets Connor Raridon back, adds a D2 transfer, adds another transfer who led his team in scoring and was 5th in conference scoring, and adds, among others, a super athletic freshman who is both explosive on the offensive interior and plays a smothering brand of defense, along with another freshman who finished second in scoring in DuPage County, a great provider of top level D3 talent. IDK what noteworthy additions CC is making which helps lead me to the conclusion that there is a rather large gap between where NCC is likely to be ranked pre-season, and where CC may be ranked.
Hope that answers your question.

First off, I am in no way stating I believe Carthage to be a top 10 team at this point, and I agree with most on here about the high preseason ranking of Augie and North Central.  What I guess I am arguing, is based off of last season the gap clearly isn't that big.  Carthage went 1-1 against what many see as 1 or 2 ranked Augie and they went 2-1 against what you are saying you see as a 4-7 nationally ranked NCC.

Carthage has 4 of their top 5 back including Perry and Baltimore.  They finished the regular season 7-1 and Baltimore finished that stretch of games averaging 16 points and Perry, the regional rookie of the year, was roughly  12 PPG and 8 RPG.  With any improvement they should be a load to go against together.  As for the "QB" of the team, I think it will still be Brad Kruse who was all conference last year. 

I am not nearly as close to the Carthage program as you are the North Central.  I am merely an alum and a fan.  I have very little communication with coaching staff so I can't politic for my school like you can regarding new coming players.  What I have heard, is that the Carthage staff is very pleased with their incoming class.  They also get their PG back who transferred in before last season.  He was starting ahead of their PG from last season before a season ending injury in their 2nd scrimmage.   

Again I am in no way taking anything away from any other program, in fact I would like to think the CCIW deserves more teams in the discussion of top 25. Based off of what is returning alone and not even including any potential new adds, and based off of Carthage's success against top teams last year I just don't see how they can be left without serious consideration.

I will head back up north for the Carthage home coming game in a month or so.  Hopefully I can get more inside info then!  These posts are really getting me excited for the season now.  Can it be October already!?

[PeterEscobar]

As a voter... something spectacular is going to have to keep me from voting Whitman #1 in the preseason.

First off, Babson loses far too much to keep my #1 vote. I do know of voters who will continue to vote for the champ until they lose. I am not of that mentality and have no reason to keep Babson #1.

First and foremost, I agree 100% Whitman should be #1 to begin the season. And Augustana and Williams deserve to be top 5. I did want to shed some light on Babson for 2017-18... They return the starting point guard from the six NCAA tournament games and two All-Conference players in Nick Comenale and Bradley Jacks... And they added three Division I transfers. Graham Dolan, who redshirted last season at U Buffalo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGaJakR6D98), Brandon Johnson, a two year player at Boston University (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brjGRJEx9Pk), and Tim Hasbargen, a transfer from Cleveland State who played nine minutes a game and shot 40% from 3 in the Horizon League as a sophomore. The freshman is Andrew Jaworski who averaged over 30 points per game in the state tournament (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iw-uq1qlLVo). So maybe don't sleep so hard on the Beavers...

[Greek Tragedy]

I suppose we'll all do a what and see approach. Looking at their schedule, they have a killer schedule...if they used the opponents' rosters from last year. Endicott, Amherst, Albertus Magnus and Lasell, among others, all suffer huge graduation losses.

And all because you are a D1 transfer doesn't guarantee immediate success. But, like I said, we'll see what they look like at the beginning of December. I still think they'll be ranked outside the Top 15.

[PeterEscobar]

And all because you are a D1 transfer doesn't guarantee immediate success. But, like I said, we'll see what they look like at the beginning of December. I still think they'll be ranked outside the Top 15.

Agree just because someone is a DI transfer, it does not guarantee success. However, if just one of the three is an impact player you are looking at a team with two all-conference seniors, a point guard who just won six straight NCAA tournament games and another impact player. In the NEWMAC, which looks to have MIT and Springfield competing on a regional level and WPI seemingly always a lock for 20 wins, that bodes well.