Top 25 talk

[Ralph Turner]

I agree that the final #1 doesn't have to be the tourney winner; they are separate.  However, usually those six games in March, even if they aren't all over world-beaters, is usually enough to boost the resume sufficiently.  The only real scenario where I wouldn't vote for the champion is if that champion was clearly on a roll over "getting it together late," AND there was a clear dominant team all year that had one bad game (or shot).  Think a 23-10 champ and a 31-1 alternative who lost in the semis or something.

The thing with a six round tournament is that you usually can't maintain a hot streak over three weeks.  You might have a sketchy team who peaks at the right time, but they're rarely pretenders.

To me, it's more about having a dominant team not winning the title than the relative strength of the champion.  We don't have an alternative team this year.

I still think both Hamilton and Swarthmore are "better" teams than Springfield, but the Pride beat both of them. There's not enough difference between them for my eyes to overrule the results on the court.

With anywhere from 2-4 tourney games in the conference post-season tournaments, excepting the UAA, the run is even more impressive.

Except that Springfield (0-1) and Oshkosh (1-1) lost in their respective conference semifinals.
Ramapo and Nebraska Wesleyan both went 2-0 and won their tournaments.

Thanks for the response FCGG.

We have a circuitous discussion going on the Pool C and Top 25 boards. We are wanting to expand the number of Pool C bids, either with play-in games with extra Pool C bids or restricting the access to the tourney by weaker Pool A conference winners.

One comment is whether the last Pool C bid could win the national championship. With our Final Four, we have the whole range of possible scenarios.

Springfield -- unranked in the Top 25, and not receiving votes, who got its Pool C bid in the later rounds (maybe #19)
UW-Oshkosh -- Ranked and Pool C from a "Power Conference".  Was Pick #13 in the Mock Selection.

Neb Wesleyan -- unranked Pool A, receiving votes at "#26", who is the new kid on the block.
Ramapo -- Pool A from a respectable historic conference but not receiving votes.

Elsewhere I postulated that we have ~19 Pool A bids from quality conferences, 21 Pool C bids coming from 14 of those best (19) conferences and then 24 Pool A bids from the rest of D3.  We are getting the Top 40 teams.

I caution us (and the Top 25 voters) on the hubris of not thinking one of these Final Four teams is unworthy of a #1 vote.

From my perspective of the ASC and whom we play in the early rounds, just once would I like to see an ASC team play in the "Springfield regional" bracket instead of playing in a bracket that takes us early into the Central and West Region teams.


who is the new kid on the block.  Props to GS. I should have put quotation marks around "new".  All those years that I posted about NebWes on the Pool B, were not in keeping with their legacy in pre-historic D3. (Pre-historic for most of us is before the creation of D3Hoops.com, or the first 1 million posts on the message board that used to be shown on the home page.   . )

[Gregory Sager]

Although I realize that the other three teams have all made D3 tourney appearances since the last time that Nebraska Wesleyan was in the field, the Prairie Wolves are pretty old for a new kid on the block. This is NWU's 15th D3 tourney appearance, and fifth D3 Final Four appearance.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

This year, though, you do need to look at the other considerations. NWU was without their best player for half the season.  Springfield is pretty young and grew into their wins (like both Augie and Williams last year).  There's a point where the whole season has to be considered, but you're also ranking teams at the end of the season.  Progression and growth have to be part of it.  Ramapo is a talented team that needed most of the season to figure themselves out.  Do you hold that against them or not, especially if they're playing well at the end of the year?  Oshkosh is a lot the same - they didn't play up to their talent for sections of the season, but they got around to it in March.

It's all a balance.  I'd have to see a really dominant team not win to consider ignoring the tournament.

[Greek Tragedy]

This year, though, you do need to look at the other considerations. NWU was without their best player for half the season.  Springfield is pretty young and grew into their wins (like both Augie and Williams last year).  There's a point where the whole season has to be considered, but you're also ranking teams at the end of the season.  Progression and growth have to be part of it.  Ramapo is a talented team that needed most of the season to figure themselves out.  Do you hold that against them or not, especially if they're playing well at the end of the year?  Oshkosh is a lot the same - they didn't play up to their talent for sections of the season, but they got around to it in March.

It's all a balance.  I'd have to see a really dominant team not win to consider ignoring the tournament.

Not completely sure about the Oshkosh part. They really only had one real bad game and that was against a Ripon team coming in with a losing record at Wisconsin Dells over holiday break. Oshkosh lost their next game to Whitewater, but that's when Whitewater was still (presumably) really good (they were actually ranked ahead of Oshkosh at the time of the game). The only other possible head scratcher would be losing at Eau Claire, but Point also lost up at Zorn too. Besides that, 4 of their losses came at the hands of Stevens Point (both on the road, one in the conference tourney) and Platteville. I've said this before, I think the general feeling was that Oshkosh was the best team in the conference (even Stevens Point head coach  Bob Semling said that on one of his post-game interviews). The Titans have definitely saved their best for March.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

This year, though, you do need to look at the other considerations. NWU was without their best player for half the season.  Springfield is pretty young and grew into their wins (like both Augie and Williams last year).  There's a point where the whole season has to be considered, but you're also ranking teams at the end of the season.  Progression and growth have to be part of it.  Ramapo is a talented team that needed most of the season to figure themselves out.  Do you hold that against them or not, especially if they're playing well at the end of the year?  Oshkosh is a lot the same - they didn't play up to their talent for sections of the season, but they got around to it in March.

It's all a balance.  I'd have to see a really dominant team not win to consider ignoring the tournament.

Not completely sure about the Oshkosh part. They really only had one real bad game and that was against a Ripon team coming in with a losing record at Wisconsin Dells over holiday break. Oshkosh lost their next game to Whitewater, but that's when Whitewater was still (presumably) really good (they were actually ranked ahead of Oshkosh at the time of the game). The only other possible head scratcher would be losing at Eau Claire, but Point also lost up at Zorn too. Besides that, 4 of their losses came at the hands of Stevens Point (both on the road, one in the conference tourney) and Platteville. I've said this before, I think the general feeling was that Oshkosh was the best team in the conference (even Stevens Point head coach  Bob Semling said that on one of his post-game interviews). The Titans have definitely saved their best for March.

That's my point, I guess, they were the best team in the conference and they didn't finish first.  To me, that's playing below your talent.  Maybe not a ton, but it wasn't the season I expected until March.

[iwumichigander]

This year, though, you do need to look at the other considerations. NWU was without their best player for half the season.  Springfield is pretty young and grew into their wins (like both Augie and Williams last year).  There's a point where the whole season has to be considered, but you're also ranking teams at the end of the season.  Progression and growth have to be part of it.  Ramapo is a talented team that needed most of the season to figure themselves out.  Do you hold that against them or not, especially if they're playing well at the end of the year?  Oshkosh is a lot the same - they didn't play up to their talent for sections of the season, but they got around to it in March.

It's all a balance.  I'd have to see a really dominant team not win to consider ignoring the tournament.

Not completely sure about the Oshkosh part. They really only had one real bad game and that was against a Ripon team coming in with a losing record at Wisconsin Dells over holiday break. Oshkosh lost their next game to Whitewater, but that's when Whitewater was still (presumably) really good (they were actually ranked ahead of Oshkosh at the time of the game). The only other possible head scratcher would be losing at Eau Claire, but Point also lost up at Zorn too. Besides that, 4 of their losses came at the hands of Stevens Point (both on the road, one in the conference tourney) and Platteville. I've said this before, I think the general feeling was that Oshkosh was the best team in the conference (even Stevens Point head coach  Bob Semling said that on one of his post-game interviews). The Titans have definitely saved their best for March.

That's my point, I guess, they were the best team in the conference and they didn't finish first.  To me, that's playing below your talent.  Maybe not a ton, but it wasn't the season I expected until March.

Sometimes it is all about peaking at the right time.  I also think a few losses makes a team better.

[Titan Q]

While it's fresh, and before everyone forgets about hoops for several months, this is a good place for posters to share thoughts on Top 25 preseason candidates for 2018-19 -- teams that had very good seasons and return a lot.

I believe the CCIW has two...

Augustana (25-6, 12-4 CCIW Co-Champ; Lost in Elite 8 to UW-Oshkosh)
G - Nolan Ebel, 6-1/175 Jr.  16.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.8 apg
G - Chrishawn Orange, 6-2/180 Jr. 15.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.5 apg
G - Dylan Sortillo, 6/3/180 Sr.  12.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.7 apg
F - Brett Benning, 6-6/191 Jr. 10.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg
C - Micah Martin, 6-11/240 So. 7.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg

F - Pierson Wofford, 6-4/202 Jr. 14.7 ppg  11.7 rpg (3 games) ??
C - A.J. Dollmeyer, 6-9/260 Sr.  3.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg
G - Joe Kellen, 6-1/180 Jr.  3.3 ppg
F - Donovan Ferguson, 6-9/221 So. 3.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg


Illinois Wesleyan (19-8, 12-4 CCIW Co-Champ; Lost in Round 1 to Wooster)
G - Brady Rose, 6-3/185 Jr.  21.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.1 apg
G - Colin Bonnett, 6-4/190 Jr.  12.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg
G - Jason Gregoire, 6-4/195 Jr.  8.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.9 apg
F - Jaylen Beasley, 6-6/185 Sr.  5.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg
C - Alex O'Neill, 6-9/245 So. 9.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg

G - Zach Knobloch, 6-2/180 So.  7.3 ppg
F - Miles Curry, 6-6/205 So.  4.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg
G - Grant Wolfe, 5-11/175 Fr.  4.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.2 apg


Augie probably an easy Top 5 preseason pick.

[Greek Tragedy]

Oshkosh only loses Noone. Stevens Point loses MJ Delmore, but Ethan Bublitz returns after being hurt nearly all year. Platteville loses a ton. Whitewater should be back in the mix and, of course, Nebraska Wesleyan returns everyone except Wells-Ross.

[AndOne]

Will NWU be voted #1 in the final poll? Should they be?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Will NWU be voted #1 in the final poll? Should they be?

Yes and yes.  They were more than impressive.  Oshkosh was incredible; they broke or tied just about all the final four 3pt records in the championship game and still came up short.  That's a well earned victory - plus when you add in Platteville and Whitman, that's plenty of resume to make up for the non-conference schedule.

What's more impressive is how the guys handled themselves.  Rarely do you see a team so even keeled and unflappable, even moreso when they're as young as these guys are.  Immediately after the game was over, to a man, they were all talking about getting better for next year and winning more titles.  It didn't feel like they'd achieved a goal so much as just done what they expected to do.  Pretty impressive.

[dunkin3117]

Will NWU be voted #1 in the final poll? Should they be?

Loras losses 1 senior. It will be a fun battle in the IIAC next year between these 2 programs.

[Gregory Sager]

I first posted this is the 2018 tourney room two weeks ago, but this seems like a better place for it:

The preseason d3hoops.com poll and the Final Four

year	champ	2nd	3rd	4th
2000	Calvin (#22)	Wisconsin-Eau Claire (#19)	Salem State (ORV)	Franklin & Marshall (#5)
2001	Catholic (#7)	William Paterson (#2)	Illinois Wesleyan (#25)	Ohio Northern (ORV)
2002	Otterbein (no votes)	Elizabethtown (ORV)	Carthage (#1)	Rochester (no votes)
2003	Williams (#11)	Gustavus Adolphus (ORV)	Wooster (ORV)	Hampden-Sydney (#7)
2004	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#3)	Williams (#1)	John Carroll (#12)	Amherst (#14)
2005	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#1)	Rochester (#5)	Calvin (no votes)	York (PA) (no votes)
2006	Virginia Wesleyan (#11)	Wittenberg (#10)	Illinois Wesleyan (#1)	Amherst (#5)
2007	Amherst (#3)	Virginia Wesleyan (#1)	Washington (MO) (ORV)	Wooster (#2)
2008	Washington (MO) (#1)	Amherst (#2)	Hope (#11)	Ursinus (no votes)
2009	Washington (MO) (#1)	Stockton (ORV)	Guilford (ORV)	Franklin & Marshall (no votes)
2010	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#10)	Williams (ORV)	*Guilford (#3)	*Randolph-Macon (#19)
2011	St. Thomas (#13)	Wooster (#6)	*Middlebury (#9)	*Williams (#8)
2012	Wisconsin-Whitewater (ORV)	Cabrini (#14)	*Illinois Wesleyan (ORV)	*MIT (#10)
2013	Amherst (#5)	Mary Hardin-Baylor (ORV)	*North Central (IL) (#6)	*St. Thomas (#11)
2014	Wisconsin-Whitewater (#13)	Williams (#3)	*Amherst (#1)	*Illinois Wesleyan (#2)
2015	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#7)	Augustana (#3)	*Babson (#23)	*Virginia Wesleyan (#19)
2016	St. Thomas (#4)	Benedictine (no votes)	*Amherst (#5)	*Christopher Newport (ORV)
2017	Babson (#3)	Augustana (#18)	*Whitman (#9)	*Williams (no votes)
2018	Nebraska Wesleyan (ORV)	Wisconsin-Oshkosh (ORV)	*Ramapo (#5)	*Springfield (no votes)

* Third-place finish following elimination of national consolation game

Poll points per Final Four
2000:   750
2001: 1064
2002:   620
2003:   839
2004: 1604
2005: 1028
2006: 1644
2007: 1676
2008: 1529
2009:   680
2010: 1068
2011: 1473
2012:   579
2013: 1205
2014: 1934
2015: 1206
2016:   863
2017: 1093
2018:   495

* * * * * * * *

The pre-tournament d3hoops.com poll and the Final Four

year	champ	2nd	3rd	4th
2000	Calvin (#1)	Wisconsin-Eau Claire (#15)	Salem State (#21)	Franklin & Marshall (#19)
2001	Catholic (#14)	William Paterson (#11)	Illinois Wesleyan (#17)	Ohio Northern (#3)
2002	Otterbein (#6)	Elizabethtown (#4)	Carthage (#1)	Rochester (#18)
2003	Williams (#3)	Gustavus Adolphus (#24)	Wooster (#6)	Hampden-Sydney (#4)
2004	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#10)	Williams (#1)	John Carroll (#13)	Amherst (#5)
2005	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#1)	Rochester (#21)	Calvin (#14)	York (PA) (#19)
2006	Virginia Wesleyan (#7)	Wittenberg (#3)	Illinois Wesleyan (#11)	Amherst (#4)
2007	Amherst (#6)	Virginia Wesleyan (#4)	Washington (MO) (#8)	Wooster (#2)
2008	Washington (MO) (#11)	Amherst (#3)	Hope (#1)	Ursinus (#16)
2009	Washington (MO) (#2)	Stockton (#6)	Guilford (#23)	Franklin & Marshall (ORV)
2010	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#5)	Williams (#2)	*Guilford (#3)	*Randolph-Macon (#16)
2011	St. Thomas (#8)	Wooster (#5)	*Middlebury (#2)	*Williams (#4)
2012	Wisconsin-Whitewater (#8)	Cabrini (#5)	*Illinois Wesleyan (ORV)	*MIT (#3)
2013	Amherst (#2)	Mary Hardin-Baylor (no votes)	*North Central (IL) (#3)	*St. Thomas (#1)
2014	Wisconsin-Whitewater (#3)	Williams (#9)	*Amherst (#7)	*Illinois Wesleyan (#6)
2015	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#8)	Augustana (#6)	*Babson (#4)	*Virginia Wesleyan (#9)
2016	St. Thomas (#8)	Benedictine (#2)	*Amherst (#15)	*Christopher Newport (#4)
2017	Babson (#3)	Augustana (ORV)	*Whitman (#1)	*Williams (ORV)
2018	Nebraska Wesleyan (ORV)	Wisconsin-Oshkosh (#24)	*Ramapo (no votes)	*Springfield (no votes)

* Third-place finish following elimination of national consolation game

Poll points per Final Four
2000: 1172
2001: 1383
2002: 1852
2003: 1653
2004: 1802
2005: 1182
2006: 1801
2007: 2059
2008: 1967
2009: 1170
2010: 1904
2011: 2153
2012: 1515
2013: 1789
2014: 1945
2015: 1847
2016: 1849
2017: 1227
2018:   158

[Greek Tragedy]

Oshkosh only loses Noone. Stevens Point loses MJ Delmore, but Ethan Bublitz returns after being hurt nearly all year. Platteville loses a ton two starters. Whitewater should be back in the mix and, of course, Nebraska Wesleyan returns everyone except Wells-Ross.

Platteville players with double-digit minutes *denotes starter, 3 pts/game
*Duax - 15.8/4.6
*Oestreich - 11.2/3.7
*Voelker - 10.3/3.7
Shields - 10.2/3.2
*Gerds - 7.9/6.0
*Showalter - 6.6/2.4
Ranney - 4.4/2.1

Oshkosh
*Boots - 16.0/3.6
*Flynn - 12.8/7.0
*Fravert - 12.3/7.5
*Wittchow - 10.9/3.9
*Noone - 10.2/2.4
Duax - 3.3/2.8
Vlotho - 3.1/2.0

Stevens Point
*Delmore - 12.0/2.5
*Dodge - 11.6/3.1
*O-Heron - 11.1/3.5
*Fredrickson - 7.9/3.6
Nelson, M - 7.3/3.2
*Tauber - 5.8/5.0
Nelson, G - 3.4/1.1
Koerner - 3.3/1.5

Bublitz - played in one game this season averaged 14.3/4.2 in 2016-2017, tops in both categories.

River Falls loses their top two scorers and rebounders in Herink and Witt, and also loses a 3rd starter in Buckley.

Whitewater returns their top 7 players and that doesn't include Scotty Tyler, who only played 5 games. I don't know if there's any possibility of a return of Chris Jones.

[nescac1]

Next year's likely pre-season top 10 looks loaded with very experienced teams.  Nebraska Wesleyan will clearly be number one as they only lose one guy.  WIAC looks ridiculously stacked next season.  CCIW's top two look like they will be better on paper.   Whitworth looks better and Whitman brings back plenty.  And the Northeast region has a number of stacked teams to toss into the potentential top-10 mix, all of whom look like legit contenders:

MIT graduates NO seniors from a team that barely missed the Final Four (losing in Ramapo in the Elite 8) and dealt with some significant injury issues, especially to top playmaker Jomard, who wasn't all the way back in the tourney games for sure.  Hamilton Forsythe should be a big time star now that he has some experience, and MIT's senior class is loaded.  With four big-time shooters (Jurko, Forsythe, Hinkley, Korb) returning, MIT has the potential to be one of the best outside shooting teams we've seen in D3. 

Williams after winning NESCAC but losing to Ramapo in the second round returns the NESCAC POY in James Heskett (someone whose game still has plenty of room for growth), a first-team all-league player in Bobby Casey, Kyle Scadlock, who was the team's leading scorer and rebounder before blowing out his knee in game 8, uber-talented big guy Matt Karpowicz, who was dominant in stretches and who is expected to be a bigger factor as a junior, plus two other defensive specialists who were at least part-time starters in Feinberg and Kempton.  The Ephs also have a very strong recruiting class coming in.  The Ephs lose two backcourt starters in Teal and Greenman and their back-up point guard in Galvin, but their combined statistical impact was not massive (about 17 ppg and 6 apg, while shooting a combined 35 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3) and there are some intriguing possible replacements.     

Hamilton brings back its top five players (one, Groll, was a bench guy but was more productive / impactful than the starter), four seniors and one junior, from a team that lost in heartbreaking fashion to Springfield in the Sweet 16.  They graduate two seniors both of whom were role players who didn't score very often.  Very experienced group: they average about two years as starters between them.  Kena Gilmour has developed into one of the top players in the country and should have a big junior season, and two-time all-league player Peter Hoffmann is a great second option. 

Springfield brings back Jake Ross, Heath Post, and Cam Earle.  The Pride does however graduate 3 of their top 6 guys.  There is not a ton returning around that tremendous top three, but as we saw this year Ross alone makes them very dangerous and Post is great secondary star.  If the Pride bring in another few capable players, they will be back in the mix again. 

Middlebury, Wesleyan, Nichols, Endicott and Keene State all look like potential top-25 teams from the northeast as well.  But all have more question marks than the aforementioned group or the other teams folks have been discussing. 

[Gregory Sager]

Wittenberg loses All-American center Chad Roy, but everybody else of consequence is back -- including double-digit scorers Mitchell Balser, Jacob Bertemes, and Connor Seipel, and the two leading rebounders for the Tigers in Seipel and Jordan Pumroy. Speedy 6'2 freshman guard Rashaad Ali-Shakir came on at the end of the season, scoring 15 in the NCAC tourney championship game against Ohio Wesleyan and following that up with 10 points against Misericordia in the first round of the D3 tourney; he looks like he could be a breakout player next season.

Wooster loses leading scorer Spencer Williams, but the next four leading scorers for the Fighting Scots -- Danyon Hempy (15.0), Reece Dupler (14.4), Blake Blair (7.5), and Eric Bulic (6.9 and 7.2 rpg) -- all return.

Marietta could be scary next season. The Pioneers lose their leading scorer, PG Dillon Young, but return a pair of All-OAC performers in Kyle Dixon (13.1) and Anthony Wallace (12.9), plus leading rebounder Avery Williams (11.6 and 7.5) as well as DeVaughn Wingard (10.2) and Caleb Hoyng (7.9) and part-time starters Mel Schuler and Mike Hall. They'll all be seniors next season, except for Hoyng and Hall, who will be juniors.