Top 25 talk

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The Division III basketball season is nearly a month along. We have reached the first quarter pole of the season to evaluate where everyone is and where teams are headed. There have been plenty of surprises, upsets, teams stubbing their toes, and more. There are also some who are doing well despite maybe not being fully saddled when they left the gate.

On Thursday's edition of Hoopsville, Dave takes a look at three programs which had very late coaching decisions and how those decisions have affected the programs. Two teams, Salisbury men and Trine women, saw their coaches suspended and then fired in the month leading up to their first games. Another, Brandeis men, saw their coach make national headlines, be fired, an interim hired, but then that decision reversed and a new coach hired just two weeks before practices began.

All three, are off to terrific starts accounting for a total of two losses on the season so far.

What is it like to adjust to a last minute coaching change? What is it like to take over a program, or enter an athletic department and school, in such perceived turmoil? How hard is it to put the blinders on and focus at the task at hand? We follow up Ryan Scott's terrific story last week with a chat with two players and a coach on the experience of dealing with change.

Plus, after years of waiting it finally happened! Division III women's basketball is getting it's own All-Star Game! Williams' coach Pat Manning discusses the long journey to the announcement, how they found a sponsor, and why the game will be the center piece of changing the women's Championship Weekend altogether.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Thursday's show live starting at 7:00 p.m. ET here: http://bit.ly/2E4YCb4.

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or use any of the social media options below.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Jean Bain, Brandeis men's coach
- Chase Kumor, Salisbury men's senior
- Cassidy Williams, No. 11 Trine women's senior
- Pat Manning, Williams' head coach & WBCA All-Star Game Committee member

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts instead, you can get access to them or subscribe one of the three following ways (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville




Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
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[John Gleich]

On the others-to-watch list, Wabash won at Ohio Wesleyan last night.  The Little Giants will host #15 Wooster on Saturday, in a battle of undefeated teams.  With the game being in Crawfordsville, where Wabash is a respectable 4-6 against the Scots over the last decade, and both teams in the midst of preparing for final exams next week, this could be one to watch.

Wabash won 62-60 (according to the scoreboard)

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (Just-Shy-Of Complete)

Just one Sunday game in this group of teams (Wesley @ Salisbury, 4pm), which I will edit in this evening.

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	625	Nebraska Wesleyan	9-0	def. Colorado College, 103-63
#2	567	Williams	9-0	def. Union, 87-70; def. Springfield, 75-71
#3	546	Augustana	7-1	def. MacMurray, 78-54; def. #8 Illinois Wesleyan, 67-60
#4	541	Hamilton	9-0	def. SUNYIT, 102-62; def. Elmira, 98-67
#5	515	Whitman	6-1	IDLE
#6	488	UW-Stevens Point	5-1	def. T#44 Hope, 82-74
#7	439	UW-Oshkosh	7-1	def. Finlandia, 95-48; def. Alma, 99-74; def. Calvin, 92-56
#8	438	Illinois Wesleyan	7-2	LOST to #28 Wheaton (Ill.), 88-90; LOST to #3 Augustana, 60-67
#9	390	MIT	8-1	def. Mass-Dartmouth, 86-64; def. Salem State, 86-55; def. Fitchburg State, 89-55
#10	368	Plattsburgh State	8-1	def. #18 Middlebury, 92-83; LOST to Brockport, 78-79; def. SUNY Geneseo, 65-57
#11	344	Whitworth	6-1	def. La Verne, 115-65
#12	338	UW-Whitewater	7-0	def. Calvin, 68-63; def. Alma, 101-97 OT
#13	322	Marietta	8-0	def. Baldwin Wallace, 87-68
#14	315	Wittenberg	7-1	def. DePauw, 77-66; def. Allegheny, 92-69
#15	302	Wooster	7-1	def. Allegheny, 101-84; LOST to Wabash, 60-62
#16	288	Randolph-Macon	10-1	def. Hampden-Sydney, 92-71; LOST to #27 Christopher Newport, 61-72
#17	230	Rochester	9-0	def. SUNY Geneseo, 91-67; def. St. John Fisher, 86-82 OT; def. (n) Nazareth, 75-66
#18	197	Middlebury	6-2	LOST to #10 Plattsburgh State, 83-92; def. Skidmore, 71-54
#19	99	Amherst	6-1	LOST to Babson, 55-68; def. Lasell, 91-64
#20	86	North Central (Ill.)	6-1	def. Carroll, 61-47; LOST to North Park, 88-95
#21	85	Loras	6-1	def. Wartburg, 91-90; def. Lake Forest, 118-92
#22	76	Lynchburg	8-1	LOST to Guilford, 78-82; def. Methodist, 78-76
#23	74	Swarthmore	6-2	def. Ursinus, 61-53; def. Muhlenberg, 83-65
#24	70	St. John's	6-1	def. Hamline, 92-63
#25	68	Nichols	8-0	def. Curry, 120-76; def. Anna Maria, 92-66

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	57	Salisbury	9-0	def. Marymount, 67-65 OT; def. Wesley, 91-89 OT
#27	49	Christopher Newport	7-1	def. #16 Randolph-Macon, 72-61
#28	26	Wheaton (Ill.)	7-2	def. #8 Illinois Wesleyan, 90-88; def. Olivet, 92-81
#29	25	Montclair State	8-2	def. #30 New Jersey City, 81-76; LOST to TCNJ, 83-93
#30	22	New Jersey City	7-3	def. Albertus Magnus, 104-83; LOST to #29 Montclair State, 76-81; def. Rutgers-Newark, 71-65
#31	21	UW-Platteville	5-2	def. Cardinal Stritch, 95-60; def. Central, 94-77
#32	20	Johns Hopkins	8-2	def. Gettysburg, 81-56; def. Dickinson, 65-58
#33	19	Pomona-Pitzer	6-1	def. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 73-65
#34	16	Scranton	7-0	def. York (Pa.), 87-68
#35	12	Oswego	8-0	def. Buffalo State, 84-78; def. Fredonia, 77-43
#36	10	WPI	8-0	def. Framingham State, 70-61; def. Salem State, 83-67
#37	9	Eastern Connecticut	6-2	LOST to Western Connecticut, 75-85; def. Plymouth State, 77-62
#38	7	Emory	6-2	def. LaGrange, 96-87
#39	6	John Carroll	4-3	LOST to Mount Union, 74-95; def. Muskingum, 88-79
T#40	4	Centre	6-0	IDLE
T#40	4	Endicott	6-2	def. Bridgewater State, 84-69
#42	3	Roanoke	6-3	def. Ferrum, 82-68; LOST to Virginia Wesleyan, 56-63
#43	2	St. Thomas	6-1	def. Bethel, 68-65; def. Carleton, 99-50
T#44	1	Hope	4-3	def. Grace Bible, 89-78; LOST to #6 UW-Stevens Point, 74-82
T#44	1	Keene State	5-3	def. Rhode Island College, 98-85; LOST to Mass-Dartmouth, 71-80

Undefeated/Unranked teams (from hopefan's list on "The Undefeated and the Winless")

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
---	---	Millsaps	8-0	IDLE
---	---	Wabash	7-0	def. Ohio Wesleyan, 76-67; def. #15 Wooster, 62-60
---	---	Occidental	7-0	def. La Verne, 77-73; def. Cal Miramar, 96-61

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There is plenty to distract this time of the season. Finals, holidays, even weather. Staying focused on each practice and game is just a bit more challenging in December.

Sunday on Hoopsville, we chat about those distractions with teams that are helping shake up not only their conferences, but also the national landscape. However, how do they stay focused? Especially when expectations start to increase each game. Also, how do they take advantage of opponents possibly losing focus?

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. Sunday's episode can be seen live starting at 7pm ET right here: http://bit.ly/2rrdjgW

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or use any of the social media options below.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Jon VanderWal, No. 13 Marietta men's coach
- Alisa Kintner, Widener women's coach
- Marlon Sears, Montclair State men's coach
- Ryan Scott, Around the Nation Columnist ("Top 25 Double-Take")

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts instead, you can get access to them or subscribe one of the three following ways (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville




Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
Facebook: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
YouTube: www.youtube.com/user/d3hoopsville

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I looked at Massey after I submitted my ballot last night.  I had 23 of my Top 25 in Massey's Top 30 and everyone I voted for was in his Top 50.  I can't recall being that in synch with "the numbers" this early in the season before.  The order is pretty different, of course, but I thought it was an interesting observation.

[Rofrog]

Not trying to be a smart ... I wouldn't read to much into massey I checked on the outcome for Scranton vs York he gave Scranton a very slight chance 76-75 we know how that turned out !

[WUPHF]

Not trying to be a smart ... I wouldn't read to much into massey I checked on the outcome for Scranton vs York he gave Scranton a very slight chance 76-75 we know how that turned out !

Any one result does not invalidate the data.

[Rofrog]

It wasnt just that it was many!

[KnightSlappy]

Not trying to be a smart ... I wouldn't read to much into massey I checked on the outcome for Scranton vs York he gave Scranton a very slight chance 76-75 we know how that turned out !

Any one result does not invalidate the data.

Also, in reading the numbers, it's important to note that the distributions of outcomes are treated probabilistically. The model didn't say that York would win by 1 or even that they'd win at all, only that it seemed to be the most likely outcome of an entire range of possibilities. The model did predict that Scranton would win by 19 (or more!) points nearly 10% of the time. In any even-strength matchup there's something like a 40% chance that either team will win by 10+ points and a 10% chance that either team will win by 20 points.

It's not uncommon to have 200+ D3 games on any given Saturday. That means there will be a couple dozen games that Massey will "miss" badly (but, in fact, the model itself predicts that it will "miss" roughly that number of games!).

To say a model could predict the score exactly would be to say it could predict the exact order of all events in the game itself.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Not trying to be a smart ... I wouldn't read to much into massey I checked on the outcome for Scranton vs York he gave Scranton a very slight chance 76-75 we know how that turned out !

Any one result does not invalidate the data.

Also, in reading the numbers, it's important to note that the distributions of outcomes are treated probabilistically. The model didn't say that York would win by 1 or even that they'd win at all, only that it seemed to be the most likely outcome of an entire range of possibilities. The model did predict that Scranton would win by 19 (or more!) points nearly 10% of the time. In any even-strength matchup there's something like a 40% chance that either team will win by 10+ points and a 10% chance that either team will win by 20 points.

It's not uncommon to have 200+ D3 games on any given Saturday. That means there will be a couple dozen games that Massey will "miss" badly (but, in fact, the model itself predicts that it will "miss" roughly that number of games!).

To say a model could predict the score exactly would be to say it could predict the exact order of all events in the game itself.

I want to thank you for so many reason ... so, so many reasons.

It's like winter weather forecasting ... the models can sometimes be all over the place. Does it mean they are wrong? Not exactly. Computers don't control things ... if no one realized that.

[noonhooper]

They dont control things ... YET

[Mr. Ypsi]

Usually I think I have fairly good insight for psyching out how poll voters will go, but occasionally they make me go WTF??!!

Wabash beat #15 Wooster by two at home and jumped from zero votes to 110, and #22.  Wheaton beat #8 IWU by two on the road and rose FIVE points (26 to 31) to remain FAR short of #25.  Wabash and Wheaton each had one other win against respectable by unranked opponents by 9 or 11 points.  Anyone want to attempt an explanation?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Usually I think I have fairly good insight for psyching out how poll voters will go, but occasionally they make me go WTF??!!

Wabash beat #15 Wooster by two at home and jumped from zero votes to 110, and #22.  Wheaton beat #8 IWU by two on the road and rose 15 points (16 to 31) to remain FAR short of #25.  Wabash and Wheaton each had one other win against respectable by unranked opponents by 9 or 11 points.  Anyone want to attempt an explanation?

Not sure what other voters are thinking ... and I have Wheaton ahead of Wabash on my ballot ... but Wheaton's resume includes a loss to North Park(!) and a 30-point drubbing by Chicago. Wabash is undefeated.

Sure, your single examples are interesting ... but there is a bigger resume out there as well.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Usually I think I have fairly good insight for psyching out how poll voters will go, but occasionally they make me go WTF??!!

Wabash beat #15 Wooster by two at home and jumped from zero votes to 110, and #22.  Wheaton beat #8 IWU by two on the road and rose 15 points (16 to 31) to remain FAR short of #25.  Wabash and Wheaton each had one other win against respectable by unranked opponents by 9 or 11 points.  Anyone want to attempt an explanation?

Wheaton did not make my ballot and were probably in the next 5 (26-30) that I was considering. Wheaton has some good wins as you pointed out but also a couple head scratchers (North Park?) I think I just need to see a little consistency from them for a couple weeks before I feel comfortable knowing what they are at this point. Are they the team that beat IWU last week or the one who got blown out by Chicago and lost to North Park (for reference I had Wabash at 24).

[Rofrog]

Well according to one of the voters they said exactly what you said about using Massey rating dont read to much into it.So what is it use it to fit the narrative  or not ?