Top 25 talk

[nescac1]

I guess I see St. John's as a team that has been underrated for awhile. Only one loss and a very respectable one.  Beating teams badly since then.  A very strong two-season run.  Absolutely killing it in efficiency ratings and Massey.  Whitworth has a lot of narrow escapes, two losses, and their best wins look less impressive as JHU and E&H have faded. 

[Pat Coleman]

Respectable loss but three teams have beaten UWW in the last week so that loss looks "less impressive" as well. What's the best SJU win?

[nescac1]

Plattesville, Lacrosse and Augusburg are all solid wins.  But also the consistent margins of victory are impressive. 

[Smitty Oom]

vsLAX or @Platte, both of which are solid wins, but aren't GREAT wins. The rest of the MIAC, outside of UST, being merely average or bad doesn't really help so they will have two more chances at resume bolstering wins.

I think if SJU could have stopped a red hot Bethany Lutheran team in Round 1 last year they could have made some noise. BLU had a top 5% outcome for them that night and SJU didn't bring their best to combat that. If SJU finished better in 2018 the polls could be different right now, being still early in the season.... not that it matters much at all besides a talking point.

EDIT: I know this doesn't matter much in the eyes of the committees, but SJU seems to be much better recently, just thrashing opponents since thanksgiving. Learning how to play without a handful of graduating seniors who played a lot of minutes last year and years past. Another game against UWW might be a different result.

[Mr. Ypsi]

SJU's best wins would seem to be UW-LaX (11-4, 4-0 in WIAC) by 5 at home and Augsburg (10-4, and just took UST to triple OT) by 20 on the road.  However, neither of them received a single vote in the last poll, so another answer could be 'nobody'.

I don't think SJU will jump Whitworth, and I kinda doubt they jump Hamilton.  UWSP lost a respectably close game to #5, but it was their third loss, so I'd give about even odds on whether they can stay ahead of SJU.

[fantastic50]

I also view St. John's as an elite team, primarily because of their margins against good-but-not-great teams.  By comparison, Whitworth has struggled to survive such games, but the close call against a truly elite opponent is a positive.

#3 St John's (13-1, 9-0 MIAC, 4-1 vs top 100)
W 84-79 H #19 UW-LaCrosse
L 72-83 A #20 UW-Whitewater
W 78-58 A #44 Augsburg
W 71-55 A #47 UW-Platteville
W 90-55 H #72 Bethel

#16 Whitworth (13-2, 5-1 NWC, 4-2 vs top 100)
L 98-100 H #2 Whitman
W 88-85 A #30 George Fox
L 79-88 N #31 Texas-Dallas
W 76-74 A #50 Johns Hopkins
W 78-75 A #69 Linfield
W 87-80 N #82 Emory & Henry

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I'm moving St. John's up, but I would not consider moving them ahead of Whitworth right now. The Pirates have too many choices on offense - more than SJU has - and their have shown they can overcome their challenges (like a short bench).

I also consider Whitworth with just one loss - the game against Whitman was basically a draw. SJU doesn't have a Whitman type of game on their resume.

[guest323]

NC-Wesleyan should be ranked. Not even getting a vote is a joke.

[Titan Q]

NC-Wesleyan should be ranked. Not even getting a vote is a joke.

Massey #65

https://www.masseyratings.com/cb2019/ncaa-d3/ratings

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Let's break that down:

They have played Mid-Atlantic Christian twice. That's a USCAA squad which is 2-12 on the season. One of those games was reasonably close. MAC, by they way, got thumped by Southern Virginia. The rest of the resume is ... not quite helping NCW.

They also have Apprentice on their schedule - that doesn't help anyone who play them. I know they are 9-8, but they don't have a tremendous schedule.

Their opponent's winning percentage (only DIII opponents) is 69-98 (.413) including the results against NCW. They have wins over just three above .500 teams (and one of those opponents includes a loss - they split in a back-to-back scenario with Guilford SMH).

So the games they have won has an opponent's winning percentage of 58-85 (.406) - and that is only bolstered because they won the second game, ten days later, against Guilford. Don't count Guilford and that is worse (.370). And some of those games are CLOSE (two point win over Averett?!).

Their only significant games are Guilford (1-1), Babson (won), and La Grange (lost) - so they are 2-2 in that category. Can't make heads or tails of the Guilford games, Babson result is something the voters aren't going to put much stock in unless Babson proves otherwise, and the loss to La Grange is going to be a major problem for anyone to consider NCW seriously.

Only two teams on the rest of their schedule has an above .500 record - that could certainly change, but that doesn't bode well for voters to take NCW that seriously. Should they keep winning, voters will notice, but as a voter ... there is nothing there that tells me I should have NCW in over teams like Wesleyan, North Central, Nichols, Gordon, Rochester, Lynchburg, Wheaton, or Plattsburgh which encompass the bottom eight slots on my ballot (25 through 18 respectively).

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

NC-Wesleyan should be ranked. Not even getting a vote is a joke.

Massey #65

https://www.masseyratings.com/cb2019/ncaa-d3/ratings

Matt Snyder #75

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

[guest323]

Let's break that down:

They have played Mid-Atlantic Christian twice. That's a USCAA squad which is 2-12 on the season. One of those games was reasonably close. MAC, by they way, got thumped by Southern Virginia. The rest of the resume is ... not quite helping NCW.

They also have Apprentice on their schedule - that doesn't help anyone who play them. I know they are 9-8, but they don't have a tremendous schedule.

Their opponent's winning percentage (only DIII opponents) is 69-98 (.413) including the results against NCW. They have wins over just three above .500 teams (and one of those opponents includes a loss - they split in a back-to-back scenario with Guilford SMH).

So the games they have won has an opponent's winning percentage of 58-85 (.406) - and that is only bolstered because they won the second game, ten days later, against Guilford. Don't count Guilford and that is worse (.370). And some of those games are CLOSE (two point win over Averett?!).

Their only significant games are Guilford (1-1), Babson (won), and La Grange (lost) - so they are 2-2 in that category. Can't make heads or tails of the Guilford games, Babson result is something the voters aren't going to put much stock in unless Babson proves otherwise, and the loss to La Grange is going to be a major problem for anyone to consider NCW seriously.

Only two teams on the rest of their schedule has an above .500 record - that could certainly change, but that doesn't bode well for voters to take NCW that seriously. Should they keep winning, voters will notice, but as a voter ... there is nothing there that tells me I should have NCW in over teams like Wesleyan, North Central, Nichols, Gordon, Rochester, Lynchburg, Wheaton, or Plattsburgh which encompass the bottom eight slots on my ballot (25 through 18 respectively).

Have you or any voters seen them play online? I understand that it's only DIII games, but they took a DI to overtime (if I am not mistaken?) Even playing a team like Averett, they looked very impressive. Would a win over Pfeiffer change your thinking? To not get 1 vote still baffles me after seeing them play 4 times.

[CollegeGolf18]

Let's break that down:

They have played Mid-Atlantic Christian twice. That's a USCAA squad which is 2-12 on the season. One of those games was reasonably close. MAC, by they way, got thumped by Southern Virginia. The rest of the resume is ... not quite helping NCW.

They also have Apprentice on their schedule - that doesn't help anyone who play them. I know they are 9-8, but they don't have a tremendous schedule.

Their opponent's winning percentage (only DIII opponents) is 69-98 (.413) including the results against NCW. They have wins over just three above .500 teams (and one of those opponents includes a loss - they split in a back-to-back scenario with Guilford SMH).

So the games they have won has an opponent's winning percentage of 58-85 (.406) - and that is only bolstered because they won the second game, ten days later, against Guilford. Don't count Guilford and that is worse (.370). And some of those games are CLOSE (two point win over Averett?!).

Their only significant games are Guilford (1-1), Babson (won), and La Grange (lost) - so they are 2-2 in that category. Can't make heads or tails of the Guilford games, Babson result is something the voters aren't going to put much stock in unless Babson proves otherwise, and the loss to La Grange is going to be a major problem for anyone to consider NCW seriously.

Only two teams on the rest of their schedule has an above .500 record - that could certainly change, but that doesn't bode well for voters to take NCW that seriously. Should they keep winning, voters will notice, but as a voter ... there is nothing there that tells me I should have NCW in over teams like Wesleyan, North Central, Nichols, Gordon, Rochester, Lynchburg, Wheaton, or Plattsburgh which encompass the bottom eight slots on my ballot (25 through 18 respectively).

Have you or any voters seen them play online? I understand that it's only DIII games, but they took a DI to overtime (if I am not mistaken?) Even playing a team like Averett, they looked very impressive. Would a win over Pfeiffer change your thinking? To not get 1 vote still baffles me after seeing them play 4 times.

I don't think that Exhibition games really count...I mean take for example Wabash. They got KILLED by D1 Northern Kentucky and D2 Bellarmine (much better teams than High Point, and voters don't seem to care.) I certainly wouldn't take non D3 results into play for the most part.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I've had my eye on NC Wesleyan all year.  I thought they've looked pretty good.  Losing to Lagrange at home hurt their chances in my eyes because the schedule's not super stellar.  Like anyone, though, if they continue to win, they continue to build a better resume.

[KnightSlappy]

One thing I've learned in my 2 or 3 years running efficiency metrics is the difference between #25 and #50 or even #75 is rather thin.

We often have 2-5 teams who are a clear cut above the rest. maybe 10 additional very excellent teams who are clear T25. And then we have the beginning of a long sloping range of good teams who are marginally different from each other.

For example, Mt. Union currently checks in at #25 for me with a 20.4 efficiency margin (that means they're 20.4 points per 100 possessions better than the average D3 team). NC Wesleyan is #75 with a 12.7 efficiency margin. That difference equates to a 5-6 point projected victory for Mt. Union on a neutral court and a nearly even matchup on NC Wesleyan's home court.

That 7.7 difference in efficiency margin from #25 to #75 is about equal to the difference between my #11 Wabash and #25 Mt. Union.