Top 25 talk

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Let's break that down:

They have played Mid-Atlantic Christian twice. That's a USCAA squad which is 2-12 on the season. One of those games was reasonably close. MAC, by they way, got thumped by Southern Virginia. The rest of the resume is ... not quite helping NCW.

They also have Apprentice on their schedule - that doesn't help anyone who play them. I know they are 9-8, but they don't have a tremendous schedule.

Their opponent's winning percentage (only DIII opponents) is 69-98 (.413) including the results against NCW. They have wins over just three above .500 teams (and one of those opponents includes a loss - they split in a back-to-back scenario with Guilford SMH).

So the games they have won has an opponent's winning percentage of 58-85 (.406) - and that is only bolstered because they won the second game, ten days later, against Guilford. Don't count Guilford and that is worse (.370). And some of those games are CLOSE (two point win over Averett?!).

Their only significant games are Guilford (1-1), Babson (won), and La Grange (lost) - so they are 2-2 in that category. Can't make heads or tails of the Guilford games, Babson result is something the voters aren't going to put much stock in unless Babson proves otherwise, and the loss to La Grange is going to be a major problem for anyone to consider NCW seriously.

Only two teams on the rest of their schedule has an above .500 record - that could certainly change, but that doesn't bode well for voters to take NCW that seriously. Should they keep winning, voters will notice, but as a voter ... there is nothing there that tells me I should have NCW in over teams like Wesleyan, North Central, Nichols, Gordon, Rochester, Lynchburg, Wheaton, or Plattsburgh which encompass the bottom eight slots on my ballot (25 through 18 respectively).

Have you or any voters seen them play online? I understand that it's only DIII games, but they took a DI to overtime (if I am not mistaken?) Even playing a team like Averett, they looked very impressive. Would a win over Pfeiffer change your thinking? To not get 1 vote still baffles me after seeing them play 4 times.

North Carolina Wesleyan? Yes, I have caught some of their games online.

Pfeiffer is 7-7 ... so no, it wouldn't change my thinking. Like Ryan, the LaGrange loss is where their momentum with me was lost.

Do you know how many teams with 2-4 losses there are currently in DIII? They all can't have votes. It's impossible.

But here is the thing: you have seen them play four times and are comparing them to teams you are familiar with. Voters, especially like myself, are comparing them to teams we have seen across the country on a national level. The perspective is different. The perception is different. I've seen ten or so Top 25 caliber teams in person this year. I have seen 25-30 Top 25 caliber teams on video. I have seen twice that on video in general.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

A little late this week, but better than not doing it at all like last week.

Here is my Top 25 ballot if anyone cares: http://bit.ly/2RwqE7h

[duckfan41]

A little late this week, but better than not doing it at all like last week.

Here is my Top 25 ballot if anyone cares: http://bit.ly/2RwqE7h

Thank you for posting! It's always nice for someone to post stuff like this so the guys who want to know what the people who control the rankings are thinking.

One correction I'd have for you is Loras actually narrowly beat Augustana.

Thanks for your willingness to put your thought process and rationale out there for all of us to see.

[WUPHF]

Yes, the ballot is much appreciated.

I still disagree on Rochester as does Massey, but if they go undefeated through the next two weekends, I'll change my mind.  I only see two convincing wins on that resume and even then...

[SaintPaulite]

How far does Williams move down? One of the weaker if not weakest schedules in the top 10-15 and lost to one of the few pretty good teams on their schedule. So you're probably not going to get many really useful data points.

I feel like if they were in the midwest/north, they'd have 3 or 4 losses and be nowhere near the top. Several too-close games against meh teams that would have been punished with losses out here.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	625	Nebraska Wesleyan	16-0	def. Coe, 80-72; 01/19 vs. Luther
#2	580	Augustana	16-1	def. #34 Wheaton (Ill.), 77-73; 01/19 vs. T#37 Illinois Wesleyan
#3	563	Williams	15-1	LOST to #28 Amherst, 62-63; 01/19 vs. T#37 Middlebury
#4	560	Whitman	14-1	01/18 vs. Pacific Lutheran; 01/19 vs. Puget Sound
#5	539	UW-Oshkosh	15-1	def. #23 UW-Whitewater, 82-75; 01/19 vs. UW-La Crosse
#6	468	Whitworth	13-2	01/18 vs. Puget Sound; 01/19 vs. Pacific Lutheran
#7	444	Hamilton	15-1	def. SUNY Geneseo, 68-43; 01/19 vs. #28 Amherst; 01/20 vs. Wells
#8	440	St. John's	13-1	01/19 vs. Carleton
#9	405	UW-Stevens Point	11-4	LOST to UW-La Crosse, 57-61; 01/19 vs. UW-Platteville
#10	343	Swarthmore	14-2	def. Muhlenberg, 84-54; 01/19 vs. Ursinus
#11	335	St. Thomas	13-1	def. Bethel, 86-75; 01/19 vs. St. Mary's (Minn.)
#12	315	MIT	14-2	def. Springfield, 77-59; 01/19 vs. Babson
#13	295	Marietta	14-2	def. T#35 Mount Union, 81-69; 01/19 vs. Baldwin Wallace
#14	271	Wabash	15-1	def. DePauw, 70-59; 01/19 vs. Denison
#15	254	Plattsburgh State	12-2	01/18 vs. Oswego State; 01/19 vs. Cortland
#16	221	Randolph-Macon	15-2	def. Bridgewater (Va.), 87-79 OT; 01/19 vs. Randolph
#17	190	Lynchburg	15-1	01/17 vs. Washington and Lee; 01/19 vs. Eastern Mennonite
#18	163	Christopher Newport	14-2	def. Southern Virginia, 77-54; 01/19 vs. Penn State-Harrisburg
#19	148	Pomona-Pitzer	15-1	def. T#35 Occidental, 70-65; 01/19 vs. Caltech
#20	141	Capital	13-3	LOST to Heidelberg, 62-63; 01/19 vs. Ohio Northern
#21	138	Wooster	13-3	def. Denison, 92-59; 01/19 vs. Hiram
#22	111	Rochester	11-3	01/18 vs. Carnegie Mellon; 01/20 vs. Case Western Reserve
#23	107	UW-Whitewater	12-4	LOST to #5 UW-Oshkosh, 75-82; 01/19 vs. UW-River Falls
#24	80	Salisbury	13-3	LOST to York (Pa.), 75-90; 01/19 vs. Frostburg State
#25	73	Wittenberg	12-4	def. Ohio Wesleyan, 98-94 OT; 01/19 vs. Oberlin

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	61	Loras	13-3	def. Luther, 86-78; 01/19 vs. Central
#27	57	Wesleyan	11-4	01/17 vs. Pine Manor; 01/19 vs. Connecticut College
#28	40	Amherst	13-2	def. #3 Williams, 63-62; 01/19 vs. #7 Hamilton
T#29	36	Gordon	16-1	def. Salve Regina, 79-70; 01/19 vs. Western New England
T#29	36	Nichols	15-2	def. Roger Williams, 89-84; 01/19 vs. Curry
#31	21	North Central (Ill.)	14-3	def. Carthage, 67-63; 01/19 vs. Carroll
T#32	12	New Jersey City	13-4	def. Kean, 84-60; 01/19 vs. Rowan
T#32	12	Arcadia	14-2	def. Widener, 73-66; 01/19 vs. Lycoming
#34	11	Wheaton (Ill.)	12-5	LOST to #2 Augustana, 73-77; 01/19 vs. North Park
T#35	8	Mount Union	13-3	LOST to #13 Marietta, 69-81; 01/19 vs. Wilmington
T#35	8	Occidental	14-3	LOST to #19 Pomona-Pitzer, 65-70; LOST to Redlands, 97-101
T#37	4	Illinois Wesleyan	11-6	def. Elmhurst, 82-80; 01/19 vs. #2 Augustana
T#37	4	Middlebury	13-5	def. Albertus Magnus, 103-92; 01/19 vs. #3 Williams
T#37	4	Linfield	12-4	def. George Fox, 83-69; 01/18 vs. Pacific
T#40	1	Centre	13-3	01/18 vs. Millsaps; 01/20 vs. Birmingham-Southern
T#40	1	Guilford	12-5	def. Ferrum, 75-44; 01/19 vs. Bridgewater (Va.)

[dunkin3117]

A little late this week, but better than not doing it at all like last week.

Here is my Top 25 ballot if anyone cares: http://bit.ly/2RwqE7h

Thanks for sharing Dave.  As a follower of the ARC, I would agree that Nebraska Wesleyan remain at the top of the polls, their starting 5 has been outstanding, especially after losing Hiller.  Looking at Loras, I'm a little shocked that they have found themselves just outside of the top 25 for a second week in a row.  I agree would agree that it is tough to tell which team will show up on a given night.  A team that beat Simpson by 24 or the team that beat Coe by 1.  But the fact is, they are still winning at 13-3 with key wins over #2 Augustana (16-1), Olivet (8-8, 4-1 in MIAA), Lake Forest (10-6) and Augsburg (11-4), losses were at Dubuque (11-5), #10 at the time UW-Whitewater, who is struggling as of late, and at #1 Neb Wesleyan. 

[nescac1]

I really don't think Williams should be punished that much by a one point loss on the road in a rivalry game in which a good Amherst team shot the lights out from three.  The vast majority of Williams' games have not been close (some of the scores got a bit closer in garbage time, but it wasn't like these games were going down to the wire or anything).  The Ephs have two double-digit wins vs. a very good Wesleyan team.   They also handled solid Montclair State and Moravian teams without a ton of difficulty.  Yeshiva is also a pretty good win.  If the Ephs bounce back and beat a good Middlebury team on Saturday, which would put them at 16-1, I think the Ephs shouldn't fall below sixth (and I do think that the Ephs are very much a legit top 6 team this year).  If they lose to Midd, a different story entirely, of course.

[WUPHF]

I really don't think Williams should be punished that much by a one point loss on the road in a rivalry game in which a good Amherst team shot the lights out from three.  [...]

It is interesting to read about Amherst shooting the lights out as a point of consideration and then look at the score.  How often do we talk about a team shooting the lights out from three and only scoring 63?  Your overall message is fair though.

[nescac1]

Williams is a REALLY good defensive team (but has been struggling on offense just a bit over the past few weeks as the shooters have gone a bit cold).  Amherst shot 11-23 from 3 and at least 3-4 of those makes were very high-degree-of-difficulty shots.  But Amherst had trouble getting any sort of decent looks otherwise ... 12-40 from 2 and Williams had 10 blocks.  So I think it is telling that Amherst (not an offensive juggernaut, much more of a defensive team themselves, but still) had to shoot it REALLY well from the perimeter just to get to 63 ...

[WUPHF]

Everything you said makes sense to me...

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

A little late this week, but better than not doing it at all like last week.

Here is my Top 25 ballot if anyone cares: http://bit.ly/2RwqE7h

Thank you for posting! It's always nice for someone to post stuff like this so the guys who want to know what the people who control the rankings are thinking.

One correction I'd have for you is Loras actually narrowly beat Augustana.

Thanks for your willingness to put your thought process and rationale out there for all of us to see.

Sorry about that. When writing that (way too late in the evening) and was double-checking their results, I saw the "L" for the Dubuque game, but eyes carried to Augustana. I actually remember thinking that seemed odd that I swore it was a win, but I went with it. Oops.

I changed that. Thanks for the head's up.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Hope you didn't decide to take a night off or two from games? You would have missed some important results. While Wednesdays and Saturdays tend to be the big "nights" of any week in Division III, games on any night could have major ramifications.

The algebra this time of year is both simple and complicated. Conference schedules, for the most part, have moved into the second half and teams seeing teams a second time sometimes have an advantage. Rivals, of course, have an advantage. There are also distractions as some teams have been sitting on mostly empty campuses for several weeks and may be bored. Or second semester classes are beginning and changes to schedules can be an abrupt adjustment. There are also long road trips that can take a team's focus. Plus, the weather. Yeah, Mother Nature loves changing things around.

All of it can lead to upsets or strange outcomes. From blowouts to close battles. On any night, you are bound to see something you will be chatting about the next day.

Thursday's show includes guests from a couple of the hottest teams in men's basketball: Capital and Swarthmore. We also hear from an island squad and find out if the Whitman women's upset of George Fox should have been a surprise. And Springfield's Naomi Graves chats about how the U.S. Marine Corps has helped her coach and preach diversity.

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[SaintPaulite]

I really don't think Williams should be punished that much by a one point loss on the road in a rivalry game in which a good Amherst team shot the lights out from three.  The vast majority of Williams' games have not been close (some of the scores got a bit closer in garbage time, but it wasn't like these games were going down to the wire or anything).  The Ephs have two double-digit wins vs. a very good Wesleyan team.   They also handled solid Montclair State and Moravian teams without a ton of difficulty.  Yeshiva is also a pretty good win.  If the Ephs bounce back and beat a good Middlebury team on Saturday, which would put them at 16-1, I think the Ephs shouldn't fall below sixth (and I do think that the Ephs are very much a legit top 6 team this year).  If they lose to Midd, a different story entirely, of course.

I'm not buying much of that as quality wins. Yeshiva? Come on. Where would they be in a power league? Well we saw it early on.

No if you're even close to top whatever, those are wins you're expected to get.

Wesleyan is a pretty good win, I'll give you that one. But that's really the only one (two). Moravian and Montclair and Yeshiva just average. The rest of Williams schedule so far is not even that.

Middlebury is just decent this year (losing to teams like Keene State and Tufts, not so good) so not sure beating them at home makes up for losing when you're sitting top 5. Williams needs to drop. St. Thomas lost 1 game by 1 point and spent the whole year crawling all the way up from the non-ranked.

You don't get many real chances to evaluate eastern teams, and so they don't fall enough when they do lose bc people get starstruck by their won-lost record and don't think about that 10 of those wins were gimmies, or however many.

I wish the tournament was more nationally balanced. The west is just so much tougher.

[Gregory Sager]

Just as a reference point for this conversation, here's the Massey ratings for Williams and the opponents of the Ephs that have been mentioned:

Williams	6
Amherst	23
Wesleyan	27
Middlebury	60
Montclair State	79
Moravian	119
Yeshiva	186

There are 428 teams listed by Massey as D3 (which includes provisionals as well as exploratories such as Pratt).