Top 25 talk

[nescac1]

I am quite confident that Colby is better than Emerson (a mediocre New England who St. Thomas beat by five) and significantly better than Brooklyn (who beat St. Thomas).  St. Thomas has two very impressive wins. The rest of their schedule has been vs teams that aren't remotely close to top-25 caliber, so really a questionable comparison to make.   Despite that, I don't question St. Thomas's top ten credentials.

Every year there are some surprises in Nescac precisely because it's a deep league with a lot of talented teams.  Williams had a bad week of play, but seems to have recovered and has otherwise been rolling.  The Ephs while not perfect are certainly top ten caliber as everyone below them has also had an off night (or two or three).  Hamilton, Amherst, Midd and Wesleyan are all very good teams - maybe not top ten, but all top-30ish caliber.   Midd and Wesleyan have both played a lot of very tough squads, with more to come.   And Colby has waves of distance shooters.  They are a boom or bust team but when they are shooting well they can look very good. 

[SaintPaulite]

Question: should Nebraska Wesleyan stay #1? They were an undisputed #1 before. They're the defending national champs. This is their first loss in regulation in more than a year, it's on the road, to a top 25 team that's a conference rival.

Augustana's loss is also at Loras.

Definitely looks like assuming that Whitman wins, the top 5 in Massey plus Whitworth, and possibly Pomona-Pitzer, are a pretty clear cut above the rest.

And man, Loras may not be in the top 10, but they may be who you don't want to see in your bracket in the first weekend if you are top 10.

[SaintPaulite]

Every year there are some surprises in Nescac precisely because it's a deep league with a lot of talented teams. 

Didn't realize it was a NESCAC mulligan rule, not just Williams.

NESCAC is a decent high-end conference, but they're nothing unique. Losing to a midgrade team in that league at home is no better than in any of 10ish other comparable leagues.

You're really that confident that an Emerson team that beat MIT and Babson this month would lose to Colby at home? Really? Well...OK I guess.

[SaintPaulite]

OK maybe not plus Whitworth lol.

I mean if it was a NESCAC team they'd get the benefit of the mulligan rule...

Turns out other conferences also have teams that present challenges, though more typically when the highly ranked team is on the road.

[nescac1]

Emerson got killed by Amherst, which just lost to Colby.  Emerson beat MIT when they were missing half their roster.  Again you are trashing the quality of teams who you know nothing about and likely have never seen play even  once. 

As for a "mulligan" rule it's you who have a double standard.  Every team in the top 25 has at least one loss and the vast majority have two or more.  By season's end most will have three or more.  A fact that you seem to ignore completely.  You seem to believe that if a Nescac team loses a game or two to a quality opponent they are immediately no longer top ten worthy and this confirms that they aren't any good.  By that logic no team outside of maybe two are top-ten worthy.  Lots of very good teams outside Nescac have a bad loss or two.  Like, say, Brooklyn (certainly a worse loss than any top-tier Nescac team has suffered).  It's not that Nescac gets a mulligan - everyone does.  Or else we are just down to, everyone is overrated because no team is perfect and everyone is capable of losing to maybe 50 odd teams if they have a bad day.  Pick nearly any top 25 team's worst result and it looks pretty bad in isolation. 

Nescac year in and year out proves that it is a top-4 conference nationally. Saying it's a decent conference is like saying CCIW is a decent conference, nothing more.  That's just silly.  Other than WIAC there is no league in D3 clearly better than Nescac from year to year.  Certainly not MIAC which is typically very top-heavy. 

[Titan Q]

I have not read through the "mulligan"-related posts closely enough yet to have complete context on the discussion, but just wanted to add...

I vote in the D3hoops.com Top 25.  By this point, deep in the season, I basically give every team one mulligan.  I have found that every single team will have at least one game over the course of the season that just doesn't line up with the rest of their results -- could be a loss, or maybe a win that was way closer than it should have been on paper.

Here is a very small sample of mulligan games I have been factoring in the last couple weeks:

* St. Thomas loss at Brooklyn
* Loras loss at Dubuque
* North Central home loss to North Park

I found that it was way too hard to sort things out when I was over-analyzing some of these anomaly games.  When I implemented my own little "one mulligan" rule it got a lot easier to see the big picture.  (I won't give two mulligans btw - the second clunker counts.)

Basketball games obviously are not played on a computer, with perfectly rationale results.  Sometimes good teams play really bad...or the opponent plays really well.

[Titan Q]

I will be moving my #1 vote to Augustana.  I think they are the best team...with Nebraska Wesleyan right there.  I was waiting for the NWU @ Loras game to make the switch, as that provided a common opponent/location situation.

I think Augustana is better than NWU.  I do think NWU's zone could potentially cause Augustana problems.  NWU has great size and is one of the teams Augustana can't just physically manhandle.  I like Augustana over NWU based on defense.  Both teams are great defensively, but Augie opponents shoot just .391 (NWU opponents .415).  The Vikings are elite defensively and that is just worth so much in terms of winning big games.  For me this is the most likely national championship game...if the bracket allows for it. 

I think Whitman is a great team but I think there is clear separation between the Blues and Augustana/NWU.  Their full-court pressure defense is very unique and super effective, but good teams are going to get so many easy baskets off of it.  I watched Whitman and Illinois Wesleyan play on a neutral court...a game Whitman one by 2 by hitting a 3 with 24 seconds to play.  The stops IWU needed to get down the stretch...I think Augie and NWU get more than enough of those throughout the game to win comfortably.

I think UW-Oshkosh is better than Whitman.  They are my #3.

And again, the bracket is gonna be interesting.  The four best teams, probably, are in the Central + West.

[Greek Tragedy]

To be fair to the NESCAC, even the WIAC isn't clearly better than them year in and year out. Some, yes. Most, maybe.

[nescac1]

Good points all, Titan Q.

And by the way I don't want to suggest any disrespect for MIAC - Williams had two great battles deep in the tourney with really impressive MIAC squads, Gustavus in 2003 and St. Thomas in 2013.  The Midd-St. Thomas semi in 2011 was a tremendous battle.  And as it happens I'm married to a Hamline alum . 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well, things certainly escalated quickly! Upsets a plenty. Conference races tightening. At the same time, some more clarity? Maybe not.

There will be plenty to talk about on Sunday's Hoopsville.

Join us as Dave and his guests work to figure out what has happened in just the last few days, plus get a sense of what's to come. We will talk to teams who are near the top of their conferences races in the Northeast, Atlantic, South, and Central regions. Plus, we hear from a coach who continues to give back to the NABC and trying to improve how Division III is perceived within the coaching ranks.

Oh, and how will the Top 25s shake out on Monday?

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Sunday's show starting at 7:00 p.m. ET right here: http://bit.ly/2FQFb7v (or via Facebook Live and Periscope simulcasts).

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or use any of the social media options below.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Randy Tuggle, Greensboro women's coach
- Nicole Sarcone, Staten Island women's coach
- Gary Stewart, Stevenson men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Tod Murphy, Gordon men's coach
- Mike McGrath, UChicago men's coach
- Bob Quillman, IWUHoops.com (Top 25 Double-Take)

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[Gregory Sager]

I have not read through the "mulligan"-related posts closely enough yet to have complete context on the discussion, but just wanted to add...

I vote in the D3hoops.com Top 25.  By this point, deep in the season, I basically give every team one mulligan.  I have found that every single team will have at least one game over the course of the season that just doesn't line up with the rest of their results -- could be a loss, or maybe a win that was way closer than it should have been on paper.

Here is a very small sample of mulligan games I have been factoring in the last couple weeks:

* St. Thomas loss at Brooklyn
* Loras loss at Dubuque
* North Central home loss to North Park

I found that it was way too hard to sort things out when I was over-analyzing some of these anomaly games.  When I implemented my own little "one mulligan" rule it got a lot easier to see the big picture.  (I won't give two mulligans btw - the second clunker counts.)

Basketball games obviously are not played on a computer, with perfectly rationale results.  Sometimes good teams play really bad...or the opponent plays really well.

I don't have a vote in the poll, but Bob's methodology is pretty sound, I think. If I did have a vote I'd probably tweak the one-mulligan rule a bit whenever possible to ensure that the head-scratcher in question was more definitively a case of the favorite playing really poorly than a case of the underdog playing really well -- exceptionally good or exceptionally lousy free-throw shooting is a classic example of this, since only one team takes part in a free throw --  but I like the one-mulligan idea.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I have not read through the "mulligan"-related posts closely enough yet to have complete context on the discussion, but just wanted to add...

I vote in the D3hoops.com Top 25.  By this point, deep in the season, I basically give every team one mulligan.  I have found that every single team will have at least one game over the course of the season that just doesn't line up with the rest of their results -- could be a loss, or maybe a win that was way closer than it should have been on paper.

Here is a very small sample of mulligan games I have been factoring in the last couple weeks:

* St. Thomas loss at Brooklyn
* Loras loss at Dubuque
* North Central home loss to North Park

I found that it was way too hard to sort things out when I was over-analyzing some of these anomaly games.  When I implemented my own little "one mulligan" rule it got a lot easier to see the big picture.  (I won't give two mulligans btw - the second clunker counts.)

Basketball games obviously are not played on a computer, with perfectly rationale results.  Sometimes good teams play really bad...or the opponent plays really well.

I don't have a vote in the poll, but Bob's methodology is pretty sound, I think. If I did have a vote I'd probably tweak the one-mulligan rule a bit whenever possible to ensure that the head-scratcher in question was more definitively a case of the favorite playing really poorly than a case of the underdog playing really well -- exceptionally good or exceptionally lousy free-throw shooting is a classic example of this, since only one team takes part in a free throw --  but I like the one-mulligan idea.

It gets to the point where you have to throw out a result from time to time especially now-a-days with so much parity.

It's why I tell people that when I vote for a #1 team - or any team really - I'm not expecting them to go undefeated. I am expecting teams to lose. That doesn't mean I still don't think they will be the best when they take that loss. And since no team really is going to go undefeated, one must have to either institute a mulligan or at least weigh that loss accordingly with all the rest of the teams out there.

[AndOne]

JUST ASKING

Nebraska Wesleyan lost for the first time last night.
Augustana, Oshkosh, and Whitman already had one loss.
So what makes NWU's loss any worse than those of Augie, UWO, or Whitman? 🤷🏻‍♂️
Is it "worse" just because its more recent?
If not, why doesn't NWU deserve to maintain the #1 ranking? 🤔
After all, they don't have any more losses than anybody else.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (Complete)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	625	Nebraska Wesleyan	18-1	def. Dubuque, 69-54; LOST to #22 Loras, 76-84
#2	591	Augustana	19-1	def. Elmhurst, 78-73; def. Carroll, 68-56
#3	573	Whitman	18-1	def. Willamette, 120-78; def. Pacific, 108-77
#4	556	UW-Oshkosh	18-1	def. UW-Eau Claire, 85-63; def. UW-River Falls, 80-69
#5	508	Whitworth	16-3	def. Pacific, 116-107; LOST to Willamette, 93-95
#6	492	Hamilton	16-2	def. Bowdoin, 77-42; LOST to Colby, 78-86
#7	463	St. Thomas	17-1	def. #13 St. John's, 74-72 OT; def. Concordia-Moorhead, 88-53; def. Carleton, 72-45
#8	405	Williams	17-2	def. SUNY Oneonta, 73-54; def. Trinity (Conn.), 86-50
#9	391	MIT	17-2	def. Clark, 87-66; def. Emerson, 96-73
#10	363	Marietta	17-2	def. Otterbein, 96-67; def. John Carroll, 108-92
#11	362	Wabash	17-2	def. Ohio Wesleyan, 80-68; LOST to #18 Wooster, 84-91
#12	320	Randolph-Macon	18-2	def. Virginia Wesleyan, 62-50; def. #14 Lynchburg, 70-64
#13	319	St. John's	15-3	LOST to #7 St. Thomas, 72-74 OT; def. St. Mary's (Minn.), 89-58; def. Hamline, 74-62
#14	308	Lynchburg	17-3	LOST to T#42 Guilford, 82-88 OT; LOST to #12 Randolph-Macon, 64-70
#15	234	Christopher Newport	16-3	def. #33 Salisbury, 67-64; LOST to York (Pa.), 81-82
#16	232	Pomona-Pitzer	18-1	def. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 73-57; def. La Verne, 100-61
#17	223	Swarthmore	16-3	def. Haverford, 64-62; def. Franklin and Marshall, 75-68
#18	198	Wooster	16-3	def. Allegheny, 81-72; def. #11 Wabash, 91-84
#19	144	Amherst	15-3	def. T#36 Eastern Connecticut, 82-61; LOST to Colby, 73-83; def. Bowdoin, 86-62
#20	122	UW-Stevens Point	13-5	def. UW-Stout, 72-61; def. UW-Eau Claire, 62-44
#21	117	Rochester	14-4	def. Case Western Reserve, 81-68; def. New York University, 71-55; LOST to Brandeis, 69-75
#22	99	Loras	16-4	def. Buena Vista, 75-74; LOST to Wartburg, 83-88; def. #1 Nebraska Wesleyan, 84-76
#23	76	Capital	16-3	def. Muskingum, 89-69; def. Otterbein, 93-61
#24	65	Wittenberg	14-5	LOST to DePauw, 75-77 OT; def. Allegheny, 80-58
#25	61	Wesleyan	15-5	def. SUNY-Purchase, 91-80; def. Bates, 85-75; LOST to Tufts, 71-75

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	47	Nichols	18-2	def. Endicott, 76-69; def. Salve Regina, 95-76
T#27	42	Plattsburgh State	14-4	def. Brockport, 88-82; def. SUNY Geneseo, 78-64
T#27	42	North Central (Ill.)	17-3	def. Millikin, 93-92 OT; def. North Park, 80-60
#29	27	Arcadia	16-3	LOST to Rosemont, 86-89; def. Stevenson, 79-78
#30	25	UW-Whitewater	14-5	def. UW-Platteville, 88-80; LOST to #31 UW-La Crosse, 63-82
#31	19	UW-La Crosse	14-5	def. UW-River Falls, 66-65; def. #30 UW-Whitewater, 82-63
#32	18	Oswego State	16-2	def. SUNY Potsdam, 72-70; def. Fredonia, 87-48; def. Buffalo State, 81-72
#33	13	Salisbury	14-5	LOST to #15 Christopher Newport, 64-67; def. St. Mary's (Md.), 97-77
#34	10	Middlebury	15-5	def. Trinity (Conn.), 75-38
#35	7	Gordon	17-2	def. University of New England, 100-71
T#36	6	Eastern Connecticut	15-4	LOST to #19 Amherst, 61-82; def. Plymouth State, 80-75
T#36	6	Wheaton (Ill.)	15-5	def. Illinois Wesleyan, 86-77; def. Carthage, 81-64
#38	5	Linfield	14-5	LOST to Lewis and Clark, 81-90; def. Pacific Lutheran, 81-50
#39	4	Mary Washington	14-5	def. Southern Virginia, 75-73; LOST to Frostburg State, 70-90
#40	3	Mount Union	15-4	LOST to John Carroll, 69-82; def. Ohio Northern, 79-71
#41	2	Centre	17-3	def. Millsaps, 68-57; def. Birmingham-Southern, 73-54
T#42	1	Guilford	15-5	def. #14 Lynchburg, 88-82 OT; def. Eastern Mennonite, 70-52
T#42	1	Occidental	16-3	def. La Verne, 82-60; def. Caltech, 72-62

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

JUST ASKING

Nebraska Wesleyan lost for the first time last night.
Augustana, Oshkosh, and Whitman already had one loss.
So what makes NWU's loss any worse than those of Augie, UWO, or Whitman? 🤷🏻‍♂️
Is it "worse" just because its more recent?
If not, why doesn't NWU deserve to maintain the #1 ranking? 🤔
After all, they don't have any more losses than anybody else.

You should tune into Hoopsville tonight ... that exact same debate will be had. I suspect you may be interested in the thoughts.