Top 25 talk

[fantastic50]

Here's my new top 25, for what it's worth.
1) Whitman (18-1, 10-0 NWC, SOS 0.562)
2) Augustana (19-1, 11-0 CCIW, SOS 0.539)
3) Nebraska_Wesleyan (18-1, 9-1 ARC, SOS 0.594)
4) UW-Oshkosh (18-1, 8-0 WIAC, SOS 0.535)
5) St._Thomas (17-1, 13-0 MIAC, SOS 0.531)
6) St._John's (15-3, 11-2 MIAC, SOS 0.530)
7) Randolph-Macon (18-2, 10-1 ODAC, SOS 0.548)
8) Marietta (17-2, 11-1 OAC, SOS 0.549)
9) Wooster (16-3, 11-1 NCAC, SOS 0.550)
10) UW-La_Crosse (14-5, 7-1 WIAC, SOS 0.591)
11) Christopher_Newport (16-3, 6-2 CAC, SOS 0.547)
12) UW-Stevens_Point (13-5, 5-3 WIAC, SOS 0.583)
13) Wabash (15-2, 11-1 NCAC, SOS 0.529)
14) Williams (17-2, 5-1 NESCAC, SOS 0.575)
15) Capital (16-3, 11-1 OAC, SOS 0.525)
16) MIT (17-2, 7-1 NEWMAC, SOS 0.549)
17) Loras (16-4, 8-3 ARC, SOS 0.604)
18) Pomona-Pitzer (15-1, 10-0 SCIAC, SOS 0.489)
19) Amherst (15-3, 3-2 NESCAC, SOS 0.513)
20) North_Central_(Ill.) (17-3, 9-2 CCIW, SOS 0.505)
21) Swarthmore (16-3, 9-3 CC, SOS 0.556)
22) Wartburg (12-5, 8-3 ARC, SOS 0.582)
23) Hamilton (16-2, 3-2 NESCAC, SOS 0.540)
24) Wheaton_(Ill.) (15-5, 8-3 CCIW, SOS 0.564)
25) Whitworth (16-3, 8-2 NWC, SOS 0.509)

[AndOne]

Why place a team 3rd when they have no more losses than #1, and #2, and they have a higher SOS?
Why penalize them for having the same number of losses against a tougher schedule?

[BobbyO]

JUST ASKING

Nebraska Wesleyan lost for the first time last night.
Augustana, Oshkosh, and Whitman already had one loss.
So what makes NWU's loss any worse than those of Augie, UWO, or Whitman? 🤷🏻‍♂️
Is it "worse" just because its more recent?
If not, why doesn't NWU deserve to maintain the #1 ranking? 🤔
After all, they don't have any more losses than anybody else.

I will have to agree with you even though I am an Augie fan.  Augie has had two lucky games, Carthage and Elmhurst,  I would wait a week to see the results of the NC game in Naperville. An Augie win would make me think there might be time for a new lead dog. In the interim keep the target off of Augie's back.

[Titan Q]

Here's my new top 25, for what it's worth.
1) Whitman (18-1, 10-0 NWC, SOS 0.562)
2) Augustana (19-1, 11-0 CCIW, SOS 0.539)
3) Nebraska_Wesleyan (18-1, 9-1 ARC, SOS 0.594)
4) UW-Oshkosh (18-1, 8-0 WIAC, SOS 0.535)
5) St._Thomas (17-1, 13-0 MIAC, SOS 0.531)
6) St._John's (15-3, 11-2 MIAC, SOS 0.530)
7) Randolph-Macon (18-2, 10-1 ODAC, SOS 0.548)
8) Marietta (17-2, 11-1 OAC, SOS 0.549)
9) Wooster (16-3, 11-1 NCAC, SOS 0.550)
10) UW-La_Crosse (14-5, 7-1 WIAC, SOS 0.591)
11) Christopher_Newport (16-3, 6-2 CAC, SOS 0.547)
12) UW-Stevens_Point (13-5, 5-3 WIAC, SOS 0.583)
13) Wabash (15-2, 11-1 NCAC, SOS 0.529)
14) Williams (17-2, 5-1 NESCAC, SOS 0.575)
15) Capital (16-3, 11-1 OAC, SOS 0.525)
16) MIT (17-2, 7-1 NEWMAC, SOS 0.549)
17) Loras (16-4, 8-3 ARC, SOS 0.604)
18) Pomona-Pitzer (15-1, 10-0 SCIAC, SOS 0.489)
19) Amherst (15-3, 3-2 NESCAC, SOS 0.513)
20) North_Central_(Ill.) (17-3, 9-2 CCIW, SOS 0.505)
21) Swarthmore (16-3, 9-3 CC, SOS 0.556)
22) Wartburg (12-5, 8-3 ARC, SOS 0.582)
23) Hamilton (16-2, 3-2 NESCAC, SOS 0.540)
24) Wheaton_(Ill.) (15-5, 8-3 CCIW, SOS 0.564)
25) Whitworth (16-3, 8-2 NWC, SOS 0.509)

I think this is really good.  A few points of agreement that jump out...

* I think this has Whitworth much closer to where they belong...like last year, I think they have been way too high.

* I agree Rochester does not belong in the Top 25...and that for now, no UAA team belongs in.  (One will emerge but has not yet.)

* I agree UW-La Crosse should be in...and fairly high.

* Agree on Hamilton positioning vs current D3hoops.com poll.

* Agree that both North Central and Wheaton from CCIW should be in.

* Agree with no Wittenberg


I mainly just disagree with your top 4 order.  I like Augustana, Nebraska Wesleyan, UW-Oshkosh, Whitman.  But I am mainly just going off the "eye test" there and one could arrange these almost any way really.

But really, really solid Top 25 here.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As one who has seen Whitworth in person ... they aren't below a Top 10 team this season. This is the best Whitworth team I've seen take the court, period.

[fantastic50]

As one who has seen Whitworth in person ... they aren't below a Top 10 team this season. This is the best Whitworth team I've seen take the court, period.

Better than the 2011 team that took the #1 ranking into the postseason? That team missed out on Salem only because they had to play the sectiinal at Wooster, which pulled the upset in front of a packed & loud Timken Gym.

[SaintPaulite]

I will be moving my #1 vote to Augustana.  I think they are the best team...with Nebraska Wesleyan right there.  I was waiting for the NWU @ Loras game to make the switch, as that provided a common opponent/location situation.

I think Augustana is better than NWU.  I do think NWU's zone could potentially cause Augustana problems.  NWU has great size and is one of the teams Augustana can't just physically manhandle.  I like Augustana over NWU based on defense.  Both teams are great defensively, but Augie opponents shoot just .391 (NWU opponents .415).  The Vikings are elite defensively and that is just worth so much in terms of winning big games.  For me this is the most likely national championship game...if the bracket allows for it. 

I think Whitman is a great team but I think there is clear separation between the Blues and Augustana/NWU.  Their full-court pressure defense is very unique and super effective, but good teams are going to get so many easy baskets off of it.  I watched Whitman and Illinois Wesleyan play on a neutral court...a game Whitman one by 2 by hitting a 3 with 24 seconds to play.  The stops IWU needed to get down the stretch...I think Augie and NWU get more than enough of those throughout the game to win comfortably.

I think UW-Oshkosh is better than Whitman.  They are my #3.

And again, the bracket is gonna be interesting.  The four best teams, probably, are in the Central + West.

I don't know how to respond inline here, but whoa wait a minute here.

Didn't you say you give everyone a mulligan? I have no idea how that works (how do you decide what's a mulligan, what's a loss to a good team, etc.), but then you're dinging Whitman for a *win*?  I feel like that's a foul for holding...a double standard. Did you scrutinize Augustana against *Carthage* the same way? I mean come on, please tell me that's not the basis for actual voting in the top 25. I would lose quite a bit of respect for the top 25 if that was the case.

[SaintPaulite]

Nescac year in and year out proves that it is a top-4 conference nationally. Saying it's a decent conference is like saying CCIW is a decent conference, nothing more.  That's just silly.  Other than WIAC there is no league in D3 clearly better than Nescac from year to year.  Certainly not MIAC which is typically very top-heavy.

O rly? (not that I ever said the MIAC was top anything)
Per Massey:
2019 -- WIAC 1, NESCAC 5, MIAC 10; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2018 -- WIAC 1, MIAC 5, NESCAC 6; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2017 -- WIAC 1, NESCAC 2, MIAC 6; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2016 -- MIAC 3, WIAC 4, NESCAC 5; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2015 -- WIAC 2, MIAC 5, NESCAC 6; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2014 -- WIAC 3, NESCAC 4, MIAC 29; lowest SOS rank -- MIAC
2013 -- WIAC 1, NESCAC 8, MIAC 10; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2012 -- WIAC 1, NESCAC 10, MIAC 16; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2011 -- WIAC 1, MIAC 2, NESCAC 3; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2010 -- WIAC 1, MIAC 2, NESCAC 14; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2009 -- WIAC 1, MIAC 7, NESCAC 14; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2008 -- NESCAC 3, WIAC 4, MIAC 13; lowest SOS rank -- MIAC
2007 -- WIAC 2, NESCAC 8, MIAC 13; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2006 -- WIAC 2, NESCAC 7, MIAC 17; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2005 -- WIAC 1, MIAC 9, NESCAC 21; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2004 -- WIAC 1, MIAC 6, NESCAC 16; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC
2003 -- WIAC 1, MIAC 3, NESCAC 17; lowest SOS rank -- NESCAC

Without getting ridiculously specific, that looks an awful lot like WIAC *well* better than both, year in, year out, and the MIAC and NESCAC off and on with neither really consistently in the top 4. I imagine the CCIW is the only other league that is *consistently* among the top 4 leagues.

And as I said before, the NESCAC fattens up their NCAA SOS artificially in a way that the NCAA doesn't detect, but Massey does.

Obviously, fantastic50's ranking system does as well, as he's deviated from NCAA SOS in several places in his top 25.

[SaintPaulite]

As one who has seen Whitworth in person ... they aren't below a Top 10 team this season. This is the best Whitworth team I've seen take the court, period.

That can't really be valid reasoning.

It doesn't matter, though. Pomona and Whitworth might as well start scouting each other now, because they're gonna play in round 1.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As one who has seen Whitworth in person ... they aren't below a Top 10 team this season. This is the best Whitworth team I've seen take the court, period.

That can't really be valid reasoning.

It doesn't matter, though. Pomona and Whitworth might as well start scouting each other now, because they're gonna play in round 1.

Why can't that be a valid reason?

And yeah ... you might be surprised this postseason.

Stick around ... there is a lot we can reveal to you.

[SaintPaulite]

As one who has seen Whitworth in person ... they aren't below a Top 10 team this season. This is the best Whitworth team I've seen take the court, period.

That can't really be valid reasoning.

It doesn't matter, though. Pomona and Whitworth might as well start scouting each other now, because they're gonna play in round 1.

Why can't that be a valid reason?

And yeah ... you might be surprised this postseason.

Stick around ... there is a lot we can reveal to you.

Is there any objective data to support the assertion that they are a top 10 team? Maybe they have top 10 talent (or not, I don't know) but seems pretty well agreed that they don't have a top 10 body of work and it will be hard now for them to have.

Whitworth won't be seen as a team worthy of protection now after that loss, and while Pomona might be, I can't see the NCAA making an extra flight just to send them east and someone else west. I guess someone weird could win a conference tournament, and then 5 into 4 doesn't go and someone gets shipped east and that's probably one of Whitworth or Pomona. But that seems like the only way unless one of them just doesn't make the field.

Ironically, the old smaller bracket might have helped balance out bc someone would have had to go east (assuming Whitworth is in the field at all).

[TheOsprey]

I agree with D-Mac on Whitworth.   I'd put their starting five up against any other first string.  They should have beat Whitman and if it wasn't for the lame NCAA budget; the Pirates would have done some damage the past few years.  Last year, they got beat by a more veteran team. 

Whitman is the best team I've watched play this year,  however,  Augie has been my favorite for the past two years and I'm sticking with them.

Just my two cents.😌

[Titan Q]

I don't know how to respond inline here, but whoa wait a minute here.

Didn't you say you give everyone a mulligan? I have no idea how that works (how do you decide what's a mulligan, what's a loss to a good team, etc.), but then you're dinging Whitman for a *win*?  I feel like that's a foul for holding...a double standard. Did you scrutinize Augustana against *Carthage* the same way? I mean come on, please tell me that's not the basis for actual voting in the top 25. I would lose quite a bit of respect for the top 25 if that was the case.

No, I didn't ding Whitman at all for beating IWU in a close game.  I simply said Augustana and NWU can guard them better than IWU did.

[SaintPaulite]

I don't know how to respond inline here, but whoa wait a minute here.

Didn't you say you give everyone a mulligan? I have no idea how that works (how do you decide what's a mulligan, what's a loss to a good team, etc.), but then you're dinging Whitman for a *win*?  I feel like that's a foul for holding...a double standard. Did you scrutinize Augustana against *Carthage* the same way? I mean come on, please tell me that's not the basis for actual voting in the top 25. I would lose quite a bit of respect for the top 25 if that was the case.

No, I didn't ding Whitman at all for beating IWU in a close game.  I simply said Augustana and NWU can guard them better than IWU did.

No, you did. You downed them for winning a close game, then out the other side of your mouth gave Augustana credit for winning close games.

It's pure CCIW bias. At least you're not hiding it.

[SaintPaulite]

I agree with D-Mac on Whitworth.   I'd put their starting five up against any other first string.  They should have beat Whitman and if it wasn't for the lame NCAA budget; the Pirates would have done some damage the past few years.  Last year, they got beat by a more veteran team. 

Whitman is the best team I've watched play this year,  however,  Augie has been my favorite for the past two years and I'm sticking with them.

Just my two cents.😌

Then why has Whitworth lost 3? Well we know the reason -- defense. They gave up 202 points in two regulation games this weekend. They give up 46% from the field for the season and they don't have a great turnover ratio. They gave up 88, 100, and 95 in their losses.

If they don't win at Whitman this week, they may start to be a bubble team to even make the field. They'd be another non-Whitman loss away from being in real jeopardy.