Top 25 talk

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

They should have beat Whitman and if it wasn't for the lame NCAA budget; the Pirates would have done some damage the past few years.  Last year, they got beat by a more veteran team. 

You're blaming the NCAA budget for Whitworth losing to CMS two consecutive years?

I'd argue that was an unfair matchup for both teams. Both squads had the capabilities the last two seasons to be at least second weekend programs, but unfortunately had to face off in the first round.

And while Hopkins has six losses, I think their win of JHU is a bit more a result than you give them credit. I also put stock in their win over E&H, Linfield, and GFU (though, less so since they have been struggling of late). Those teams are better than maybe you are giving them credit.

[Gregory Sager]

As has been pointed out, I am fully aware of where North Central was when I saw them in Vegas. It wasn't that hard to see Chang scooting along behind the bench - something we made light of during both games they played. Furthermore, I saw them dismantle Husson and then get dismantled by Ohio Northern. That causes more questions than answers.

To be fair to Mark, North Central dismantled Husson but was not dismantled by Ohio Northern. The ONU vs. NCC contest ended up being a 63-61 decision that was only decided at the buzzer when Blaise Meredith missed a close-in shot that he should've been able to hit in his sleep. The Cardinals played a very crappy basketball game, but they still had a golden opportunity to send it into overtime and win, especially since ONU's leading scorer in that game (Daniel Donner) had already fouled out.

But if we are talking mulligans, why are you stuck on the ONU result? If you want me to mulligan the ONU result, then I guess I should lean hard on the North Park result. There are TWO games for North Central that give me pause and if I were to mulligan just one, which one do you want me to do that? So, I mulligan North Park when they were basically at full strength? Or should I ignore that result and focus on the ones that have the roster they currently have at their disposal.

Yep, that's basically the point I made last night -- painfully, I might add, since I don't particularly enjoy using my alma mater as the catalyst for somebody else's bad loss.

And while I understand your argument about they weren't at full-strength and still adjusting, the problem with that is they eviscerated Husson the night before. Husson v ONU might have been a draw. If the results had been in reverse, then I might buy into the argument a bit more.

Exactly. The Husson game negates Mark's argument.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As has been pointed out, I am fully aware of where North Central was when I saw them in Vegas. It wasn't that hard to see Chang scooting along behind the bench - something we made light of during both games they played. Furthermore, I saw them dismantle Husson and then get dismantled by Ohio Northern. That causes more questions than answers.

To be fair to Mark, North Central dismantled Husson but was not dismantled by Ohio Northern. The ONU vs. NCC contest ended up being a 63-61 decision that was only decided at the buzzer when Blaise Meredith missed a close-in shot that he should've been able to hit in his sleep. The Cardinals played a very crappy basketball game, but they still had a golden opportunity to send it into overtime and win, especially since ONU's leading scorer in that game (Daniel Donner) had already fouled out.

You are right ... i got excited with my word usage and didn't calm myself down. LOL

[Pat Coleman]

Poll:
https://www.d3hoops.com/top25/men/2018-19/week8

[CMSfan]

They should have beat Whitman and if it wasn't for the lame NCAA budget; the Pirates would have done some damage the past few years.  Last year, they got beat by a more veteran team. 

You're blaming the NCAA budget for Whitworth losing to CMS two consecutive years?

I'd argue that was an unfair matchup for both teams. Both squads had the capabilities the last two seasons to be at least second weekend programs, but unfortunately had to face off in the first round.

I suppose, but even as a CMS fan I'm not sure the Stags did enough in the regular season either of the last two years to say it was unfair to play a team like Whitworth in the first round. It's not great to have Whitworth and Whitman in the same group for multiple reasons, but Whitman has not actually been Whitworth's stumbling block in the tournament.

My point is this: I think if Whitworth couldn't get past CMS the past two years, it's hard to say they "would have done some damage" in another group. I think it's more accurate to say that Whitworth has been a very good, but not particularly great team recently, despite being highly ranked. And I think they continue to be overrated this year.

I'd be curious to hear a rationale for Whitworth being a top-10 team based on actual results this year. They have a really bad recent loss to Willamette and an also-not-great loss to UT Dallas. Their wins over Linfield and George Fox were awfully close. And unless I'm missing something they have no wins over teams currently receiving votes. They have a strong starting 5 and pass the eye test, but with so many flaws (lack of depth, lack of consistency, etc.) I just find it curious that they continue to get so much love in the polls.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I think moving CMS to another part of the country was very easy to do last year ... they didn't have to go to the Northwest especially since the Texas schools also had to be shipped out. The opportunity was there, but I think the committee missed it having to deal with the fact no Texas school had put into host. It got masked and missed.

Also, hard to say "Whitworth hasn't been Whitman's stumbling block in the tournament" since they haven't played in the tournament in several years. BTW - two years ago the only stumbling block Whitman ended up facing was in the national semifinals. Not too shabby. Though, Whitworth wasn't as good then as they are now.

Per your point in bold ... there are results on paper and then there is watching the team both on video and in person. I have seen Whitworth in person ... I walked away impressed with them more this year than any other time I've seen them up close. Yeah, the loss to Willamette is a head scratcher, but as I said on Hoopsville the two concerns I have for Whitworth have popped up in their two losses other than Whitman: deep bench not as talented (drop off) and not being focused on playing at a high level when playing lesser talent. That isn't unique to Whitworth as a lot of teams struggle with those two problems. I don't agree with the UT-Dallas result as much as you, but it still plays a roll and I moved Whitworth to 10 this week. I feel Linfield is a far better team than people realize (also saw them in person and watched a lot on video; remember, they had Nebraska Wesleyan on the ropes as well) and GFU isn't looking as strong now, but they have been a far better team this season.

I also don't put as much stock in the "no others receiving votes" thing with so much parity in DIII men's basketball now. There are very good teams not getting votes because we can't vote for everyone. There are teams who are going to make runs the rest of this season or in the conference (even NCAA) tournament that will surprise people because "they aren't on the Top 25 poll or votes." Parity is deep and just because one isn't being voted for in the Top 25 doesn't mean one isn't a good team.

[CMSfan]

Also, hard to say "Whitworth hasn't been Whitman's stumbling block in the tournament" since they haven't played in the tournament in several years.

Agreed, it would be really hard to say that...which is why I didn't say that. (These silly Whits are hard to keep straight...editing this post with Blues and Pirates!) I said the Blues haven't been the Pirates stumbling block. Simply making the point that the thing that has made the bracket unfair (Blues and Pirates in the same quad) hasn't actually been an issue for the Pirates. Unless you think having the Pirates and CMS in the same grouping was unfair in itself, which I think is a hard case to make.

I'll concede that the Pirates can look like a top-10 team at times, but they can also look like a team that's a lot worse than that. Perhaps I'm valuing consistency more than I should.

I'll also concede that with all the parity it's certainly muddy outside the top few teams. I'm probably hung up on my strong feeling that Pomona is better than the Pirates. I've seen both teams play and would definitely pick Pomona in a head-to-head matchup because they're deeper and more consistent. I know their SOS is weak, but with the win over the Blues and a few good conference wins (CMS twice, Oxy), I think their body of work is stronger than the Pirates.

[Smitty Oom]

Not to throw Fantastic50's great data and projections in here... but that is exactly what I am doing, so I hope he does not mind  He actually has Whitworth on the outside looking in right now with only a 38% chance of making the tournament should they not win the NWC tourney. A lot of things CMSfan has stated come up in their resume. SOS hovering around.500, 2 interesting losses and lack of wins vs. teams that will be regionally ranked are all definitely hurting the Pirates. Probably would be a shock to most of the people around the program considering they have been in the top 25 all season long.

With that said, and I have only watched Whitworth once when they played Whitman, they did seem to be a very good team in that game. I will defer to people who watch more and know more about other teams nationally if their 'eye test' is top 10 caliber, as I do not have the time unfortunately to watch a lot of teams outside the West and Central regions.

Everyone has their own way of voting for the top 25. If you rely heavily on the data and resume you would be bearish on Whitworth based on their results to date, but if you rely more heavily on the eye test/players/talent on the roster it is reasonable to be more bullish on the team from Spokane.

I just find this case to be quite interesting because both sides of this dichotomy may not just have valid points, but both sides could be more correct than not.

[kiko]

I also don't put as much stock in the "no others receiving votes" thing with so much parity in DIII men's basketball now. There are very good teams not getting votes because we can't vote for everyone. There are teams who are going to make runs the rest of this season or in the conference (even NCAA) tournament that will surprise people because "they aren't on the Top 25 poll or votes." Parity is deep and just because one isn't being voted for in the Top 25 doesn't mean one isn't a good team.

To this point, and I don't typically agree with Dave on much:

Last year's final four entered the tournament with these rankings in the D3hoops.com poll:

Nebraska Wesleyan (winner): #26; 51 votes
UW-Oshkosh (runner-up): #24; 107 votes
Ramapo (semifinalist): unranked; received no votes
Springfield (semifinalist): unranked; received no votes

Springfield received a cumulative total of two points in the poll across the 13 polls taken before the tournament (both in Week 2).  Ramapo fell out of the top 25 after Week 6 and received no votes from Week 11 onward.

More to the point, in the poll that mirrors this juncture of the season (Jan 26 last year), Oshkosh was ranked #18, and in that poll, neither Nebraska Wesleyan, Ramapo, nor Springfield received a single vote.

[CMSfan]

I dunno, I kind of think pointing out who is getting votes in the top 25 pool is relevant on a "Top 25 talk" board...

[Rofrog]

Agree

[kiko]

I dunno, I kind of think pointing out who is getting votes in the top 25 pool is relevant on a "Top 25 talk" board...

You are correct -- it absolutely is relevant.  Nobody is suggesting it isn't.

The point is that at least one voter (Dave) noted that he doesn't use "wins over teams receiving votes" as a criteria to differentiate in his ranking as he feels that, with parity being ever-present in today's D3 landscape, there are a lot of good teams not receiving votes.  And last year's final four qualifiers, coupled with their ranking at this juncture of the season, suggests that he is right not to lean on this metric as three of our four eventual Salem qualifiers were not getting votes at this time last year.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I dunno, I kind of think pointing out who is getting votes in the top 25 pool is relevant on a "Top 25 talk" board...

You are correct -- it absolutely is relevant.  Nobody is suggesting it isn't.

The point is that at least one voter (Dave) noted that he doesn't use "wins over teams receiving votes" as a criteria to differentiate in his ranking as he feels that, with parity being ever-present in today's D3 landscape, there are a lot of good teams not receiving votes.  And last year's final four qualifiers, coupled with their ranking at this juncture of the season, suggests that he is right not to lean on this metric as three of our four eventual Salem qualifiers were not getting votes at this time last year.

Yep ... this.

Agreed, it would be really hard to say that...which is why I didn't say that. (These silly Whits are hard to keep straight...editing this post with Blues and Pirates!) I said the Blues haven't been the Pirates stumbling block. Simply making the point that the thing that has made the bracket unfair (Blues and Pirates in the same quad) hasn't actually been an issue for the Pirates. Unless you think having the Pirates and CMS in the same grouping was unfair in itself, which I think is a hard case to make.

My mistake. Even reading your comments multiple times, I still messed the Whits up - something that can happen and will happen even with me. Blues and Pirates does make more sense. LOL

BTW, I did absolutely argue that having the Pirates and CMIS in the same grouping was unfair.

Here...

I'd argue that was an unfair matchup for both teams. Both squads had the capabilities the last two seasons to be at least second weekend programs, but unfortunately had to face off in the first round.

And here...

I think moving CMS to another part of the country was very easy to do last year ... they didn't have to go to the Northwest especially since the Texas schools also had to be shipped out. The opportunity was there, but I think the committee missed it having to deal with the fact no Texas school had put into host. It got masked and missed.

And I don't think it is that hard an argument to make. First off, the committee usually has a mandate, directive (or whatever), that they do not repeat first round match-ups. It became a bit of a joke on the women's side when Regis and Montclair State played each other in the first round three years in a row. Something we at D3hoops.com and Hoopsville made light of to the committee and they absolutely took note, finally (there was a lot of turnover on the committee in those years, but they also failed to really look at previous years' brackets). So knowing that, I feel the committee had a lot of justification to NOT have those two face off last season.

There was many opportunities and options to not have it happen. They were already shipping three teams out of Texas and CMS out of California. It doesn't matter where they go. Just because Whitman was "closer" to CMS doesn't mean they had to go there. The cost of a flight (flying a team), when bracketing, is considered flat - they don't consider what the costs are where they are sending them. Thus the adage, "a flight is a flight." So, the committee easily could have shipped in Sul Ross State into that bracket and had them face Whitworth. They then would have shipped CMS to Platteville.

I did not consider moving LeTourneau instead of Sul Ross State. Sending CMS to Atlanta isn't what I call the best option. I didn't like it when Whitworth was sent there a few years ago for the opening weekend, either.

BTW - THIS is why Whitworth was stuck in Washington State. Had ONE Texas team (Schreiner or LeTourneau) put in to host, OR the committee happened to pick East Texas Baptist as an at-large, then there would have been a bracket in Texas that Whitworth could have been shipped to (or other options). But because three Texas schools had to be flown out of the state, the NCAA was not going to give the committee a fifth flight, knowing there were other flights to come in the second weekend, to get Whitworth out of Washington.

I'll concede that the Pirates can look like a top-10 team at times, but they can also look like a team that's a lot worse than that. Perhaps I'm valuing consistency more than I should.

Yep... I've said that. The inconsistencies and such are a concern. But I could also make that a concern for basically all but four teams in the country right now. Parity also has inconsistencies in it. That said, this is the strongest Top 10 (or so) I've seen in a number of years. In the past, I have struggled with teams I have in my Top 10 not feeling like Top 10 programs those seasons. This year, I still have a little uneasiness, but I also feel more confident. It is further down in the poll is where I get more uneasy.

I'll also concede that with all the parity it's certainly muddy outside the top few teams. I'm probably hung up on my strong feeling that Pomona is better than the Pirates. I've seen both teams play and would definitely pick Pomona in a head-to-head matchup because they're deeper and more consistent. I know their SOS is weak, but with the win over the Blues and a few good conference wins (CMS twice, Oxy), I think their body of work is stronger than the Pirates.

My problem with Pomona (and much of the SCIAC) is their schedules leave a ton of question marks and unknowns. I've watched games, but hard to gauge when they aren't playing more than themselves or teams that can't give any relevance to the conversation. Their results are also all over the place. A 2OT win over Whitman was followed by a loss to WashU which was still trying to get it's feet underneath themselves. They also have close results against conference opponents that if they were really that good ... they should be dominating. However, I also realize that conference foes and the conference schedule can wear on a team, so I try and give that the benefit of the doubt.

And you may think that two wins over CMS (which isn't the same program as last season) and a win over Oxy is major accomplishments ... but the SCIAC hasn't really shown it's former glory of late and I think that leaves voters not sure if those games are truly significant or not.

I get the argument ... having seen both CMS and Whitworth on video and seen the Pirates in person. I just see a stronger team in the Pirates.

[hopefan]

Wahoo... Being the Major fan in the universe of the SLIAC, you know I love to see ANY little guy recognized... was ecstatic to see tiny La Roche garner a single vote this week!!! La Roche, which probably has far fewer students than Neighboring North Hills or North Allegheny High Schools in the beautiful northern suburbs of Pittsburgh (guess where hopefan was born and raised) fell short by just a couple points to Marietta and Hope, but has otherwise run through AMCC and other local competition... Their near miss vs Marietta seems to indicate that they may actually be able to be competitive in their first round NCAA tourney matchup, assuming they win the AMCC tourney or squeek into a "C" bid....

[Gregory Sager]

Wahoo... Being the Major fan in the universe of the SLIAC, you know I love to see ANY little guy recognized... was ecstatic to see tiny La Roche garner a single vote this week!!! La Roche, which probably has far fewer students than Neighboring North Hills or North Allegheny High Schools in the beautiful northern suburbs of Pittsburgh

Looks like La Roche has about 1,100 undergrads and about 400 grad students.