Top 25 talk

[SaintPaulite]

If I understand what I heard from the selection committee guy on Hoopsville today, it sounds like the new methodology may favor a team like North Central. It sounded to me like it's going to be about who you beat, not who you lost to.

I have observed in previous years that the number of wins vs regionally-ranked opponents matters much more than the number of losses vs that same group.  For example, 3-5 vRRO appears to get a better outcome than 2-2 vRRO.  Also, it has been really tough to get a Pool C bid without at least two wins vRRO, no matter your SOS or who the schedule includes.

Definitely, I imagine if you did a computer something on it, wins vs. RRO would be more useful than record, because of that.

But I don't know if you heard the discussion with Sam, but if you didn't, I think it's worth it for almost anyone, but especially someone that spends a lot of time on Pool C/bracket exploration.

With him talking about how the .3/2 thing double rewarded schedule giants and doomed teams for reasons beyond their control, I was thinking that the effect of that would be that *IF* you had quality wins, SOS wouldn't be as important. My mind immediately jumped to Pomona-Pitzer. Only 1 likely win vs. RRO (maybe CMS or Oxy gets ranked), but what a win to have. Unfortunately they probably can't host for the same reason as having few quality opponents. And on the other side, someone like Stevens Point better start winning vs. those quality opponents soon.

I also wondered while listening if the committee might go even beyond regionally ranked in some cases. Like in the West -- UST, St. John, Whitman, Whitworth, Pomona-Pitzer, Nebraska Wesleyan and Loras are all lead-pipe locks to be regionally ranked. If you stick with only 8 regionally ranked in the West like last year, everyone else is fighting for one spot. So if Augsburg doesn't make it, does that mean beating Augsburg isn't worthy of notice? I don't think so. Same for others -- Augsburg just an example, and a team that has a potential national player of the year and lock for All-American.

Loved that he specifically called out the NESCAC game-playing and the converse of having a good team locked into a league where they play 18 SOS killers -- like Nichols, who is 3-0 vs. the NESCAC. Maybe now they have a better chance to host if they continue to play well. 

This has probably gone off topic for top 25, but hopefully folks excuse the diversion. It doesn't really fit into Pool C either, so... *shrug*

[AndOne]

JUST ASKING

Nebraska Wesleyan lost for the first time last night.
Augustana, Oshkosh, and Whitman already had one loss.
So what makes NWU's loss any worse than those of Augie, UWO, or Whitman? 🤷🏻‍♂️
Is it "worse" just because its more recent?
If not, why doesn't NWU deserve to maintain the #1 ranking? 🤔
After all, they don't have any more losses than anybody else.

Prior to the current poll I questioned the reasoning in removing NWU from the #1 position as it seemed to me some pollsters might want to do so only because NWU's loss was the most recent. Basically let's just make a change for change's sake.
On Hoopsville, Titan Q promoted slotting Augustana as the new #1 while Dave Mac seemed to favor keeping NWU as #1.
In the end Augustana gained the top spot in the current poll, but then promptly lost to current #22 North Central last night. I previously suggested NCC belonged in the Top 25 prior to the current poll, but this fell on deaf ears. It will be interesting to see what a victory over the #1 team and an 18-3 record (albeit with 2 losses to very undistinguished teams) will be worth in terms of movement in the next poll.

[fantastic50]

After a 450-mile bus ride, #14 Wabash falls at Allegheny, 80-68.

[SaintPaulite]

After a 450-mile bus ride, #14 Wabash falls at Allegheny, 80-68.

They may be doing that again soon, in that case. How far is it to Oshkosh?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

If I understand what I heard from the selection committee guy on Hoopsville today, it sounds like the new methodology may favor a team like North Central. It sounded to me like it's going to be about who you beat, not who you lost to.

I have observed in previous years that the number of wins vs regionally-ranked opponents matters much more than the number of losses vs that same group.  For example, 3-5 vRRO appears to get a better outcome than 2-2 vRRO.  Also, it has been really tough to get a Pool C bid without at least two wins vRRO, no matter your SOS or who the schedule includes.

I don't tend to agree with this. There are a lot of other things involved here. Not all 2-2s are equal; not all 3-5s are equal. I think it depends who each team beats along with who they lost to.

Hypothetical (not all results in the same region):

Let's say the 2-2 team had lost both games to teams in the top four spots of the region and won their two games against teams in slots 6-8.

The 3-5 team split with the #1 ranked team, also beat a #3, split with the #4 team, lost to the #2, lost to another #1, and lost to a #5 ... the 3-5 team is going to look a bit better because of their vRRO data, they may have played more and lost more, but they also beat better teams than the 2-2 team did. The 2-2 team didn't beat anyone in the upper tier and only beat those in the lower tier.

That can actually be a deciding factor. Yes, they lost more, but they beat better teams (or split with some as well).

I know that has been a deciding factor in the past. It isn't the raw number. It isn't the raw percentage. It is WHO they beat.

BTW - there is no "new" method. The criteria hasn't been changed. A tool that has been used is simply been pulled. The women's committee has been using the same criteria without the "tool." The men just have to adjust to not using something that clearly had probably become a shortcut. I think at one time the tool made sense. However, I can see that the data no longer makes the tool mechanics work anymore. We have also talked about for several seasons that maybe the tool was starting to be leaned on too much and giving us selections that maybe it shouldn't (UW-Oshkosh a few years ago, Amherst in recent years, others).

I think that tool being removed will allow the other criteria to be more in the conversation. It also won't guarantee a team with an insane SOS entry to the tournament. It won't eliminate a team with a low SOS. It also gives teams with strong WL% and average SOS numbers a better argument.

It ultimately may make our mock selections a lot more difficult, but I think I may enjoy it more.

[fantastic50]

If I understand what I heard from the selection committee guy on Hoopsville today, it sounds like the new methodology may favor a team like North Central. It sounded to me like it's going to be about who you beat, not who you lost to.

I have observed in previous years that the number of wins vs regionally-ranked opponents matters much more than the number of losses vs that same group.  For example, 3-5 vRRO appears to get a better outcome than 2-2 vRRO.  Also, it has been really tough to get a Pool C bid without at least two wins vRRO, no matter your SOS or who the schedule includes.

I don't tend to agree with this. There are a lot of other things involved here. Not all 2-2s are equal; not all 3-5s are equal. I think it depends who each team beats along with who they lost to.

Hypothetical (not all results in the same region):

Let's say the 2-2 team had lost both games to teams in the top four spots of the region and won their two games against teams in slots 6-8.

The 3-5 team split with the #1 ranked team, also beat a #3, split with the #4 team, lost to the #2, lost to another #1, and lost to a #5 ... the 3-5 team is going to look a bit better because of their vRRO data, they may have played more and lost more, but they also beat better teams than the 2-2 team did. The 2-2 team didn't beat anyone in the upper tier and only beat those in the lower tier.

That can actually be a deciding factor. Yes, they lost more, but they beat better teams (or split with some as well).

That's very true.  I oversimplified it a bit.  However, based on the trends in the numbers over the last 4-5 seasons, I stand by my statement that (quality of those ranked opponents being equal) the number of wins vRRO has had more impact in rankings/selections than the number of losses vRRO.

BTW - there is no "new" method. The criteria hasn't been changed. A tool that has been used is simply been pulled. The women's committee has been using the same criteria without the "tool." The men just have to adjust to not using something that clearly had probably become a shortcut. I think at one time the tool made sense. However, I can see that the data no longer makes the tool mechanics work anymore. We have also talked about for several seasons that maybe the tool was starting to be leaned on too much and giving us selections that maybe it shouldn't (UW-Oshkosh a few years ago, Amherst in recent years, others).

I think that tool being removed will allow the other criteria to be more in the conversation. It also won't guarantee a team with an insane SOS entry to the tournament. It won't eliminate a team with a low SOS. It also gives teams with strong WL% and average SOS numbers a better argument.

It ultimately may make our mock selections a lot more difficult, but I think I may enjoy it more.

Based on what I'm hearing, I really like what we're hearing.  D3 values regional competition, and geographically isolated teams (such as on the west coast) have limited opportunities to play strong opponents without unreasonable travel.  If this results in Pomona-Pitzer (or Whitworth) getting a bid despite fewer quality wins or a lower SOS, I have no problem with that.  Similarly, I think it does give a better chance to reward teams from weaker conferences who played quality opponents outside of their league, and avoids an unnecessarily large boost to teams that have a high SOS based on being in a deeper league.  Overall, I think it is fully appropriate for the committee to dive deeply into all the criteria, resulting in a focus on rewarding those who beat good teams.

It will make things more challenging for pundits like me in the short term, but the committee's philosophy will be reflected in their rankings & selections, and we can adjust our (mental or computational) models accordingly.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (Almost Complete)

Several results still pending, but I am posting now because I'm not sure I'll have a chance to post later. (Power down at home; to walk to campus to access the Internet ...)

(Update - power's back on; two of four incomplete results posted.)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	607	Augustana	20-2	LOST to #22 North Central (Ill.), 63-68; def. North Park, 97-42
#2	595	Nebraska Wesleyan	20-1	def. Central, 95-70; def. Buena Vista, 89-86
#3	582	Whitman	20-1	def. #10 Whitworth, 110-98; def. Lewis and Clark, 93-72
#4	564	UW-Oshkosh	19-1	01/30 vs. UW-Whitewater postponed; def. UW-Stout, 88-62
#5	510	St. Thomas	19-1	def. Macalester, 94-61; def. Hamline, 108-58
#6	464	Williams	19-3	def. Albertus Magnus, 85-67; def. T#32 Colby, 84-68; LOST to Bowdoin, 77-78 OT
#7	446	MIT	19-2	def. Babson, 88-77; def. Wheaton (Mass.), 88-63
#8	428	Marietta	18-3	LOST to #19 Capital, 57-74; def. Ohio Northern, 91-64
#9	392	Randolph-Macon	20-2	def. Shenandoah, 96-76; def. Roanoke, 71-51
#10	384	Whitworth	17-4	LOST to #3 Whitman, 98-110; def. Lewis and Clark, 77-75
#11	371	Hamilton	19-2	def. Wells, 80-65; def. Bates, 92-76; def. Tufts, 87-83
#12	327	St. John's	16-4	LOST to Bethel, 81-85; def. Macalester, 80-59
#13	304	Wooster	18-3	def. Kenyon, 105-67; def. Ohio Wesleyan, 76-74
#14	291	Wabash	18-3	LOST to Allegheny, 68-80; def. Hiram, 95-80
#15	288	Pomona-Pitzer	20-1	def. Redlands, 81-68; def. Chapman, 89-69
#16	232	Swarthmore	18-3	def. Washington College, 84-61; def. Gettysburg, 99-60
#17	196	Christopher Newport	18-3	def. St. Mary's (Md.), 79-76; def. Mary Washington, 80-66
#18	179	Loras	17-5	LOST to Dubuque, 94-96 OT; def. Simpson, 100-79
#19	164	Capital	17-4	def. #8 Marietta, 74-57; LOST to John Carroll, 69-88
#20	155	UW-Stevens Point	14-6	LOST to #25 UW-La Crosse, 52-60; def. UW-River Falls, 69-63
#21	129	Lynchburg	17-5	LOST to Roanoke, 56-78; LOST to Bridgewater (Va.), 77-80
#22	91	North Central (Ill.)	18-3	def. #1 Augustana, 68-63
#23	89	Amherst	17-3	def. Tufts, 85-55; def. Bates, 75-64
#24	77	Nichols	19-2	def. Western New England, 82-63
#25	53	UW-La Crosse	15-6	def. #20 UW-Stevens Point, 60-52; LOST to UW-Platteville, 55-68

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	47	Oswego State	17-3	def. SUNY New Paltz, 67-46; LOST to Cortland, 67-72
#27	29	Plattsburgh State	17-4	def. SUNY Potsdam, 77-75 OT; def. Fredonia, 87-70; def. Buffalo State, 91-77
#28	21	Rochester	16-4	def. New York University, 66-63; def. Brandeis, 78-52
#29	16	Centre	19-3	def. Rhodes, 79-57; def. Hendrix, 62-49
#30	14	Emory	16-4	def. Brandeis, 88-64; def. New York University, 75-67
#31	10	Gordon	19-2	def. Wentworth, 73-71; def. Roger Williams, 103-94
T#32	9	Wesleyan	15-6	LOST to Trinity (Conn.), 69-75
T#32	9	Wittenberg	16-5	def. Denison, 82-72; def. Kenyon, 95-67
T#32	9	Middlebury	17-5	def. Bowdoin, 63-51; def. T#32 Colby, 81-68
T#32	9	Colby	15-7	LOST to #6 Williams, 68-84; LOST to T#32 Middlebury, 68-81
T#32	9	Guilford	16-5	def. Hampden-Sydney, 74-41
#37	6	Wheaton (Ill.)	16-6	LOST to Carroll, 70-77; def. Elmhurst, 58-55
#38	5	New Jersey City	17-5	def. Montclair State, 74-66; def. Stockton, 85-75
T#39	3	Arcadia	18-3	def. Albright, 77-69; def. Messiah, 80-71
T#39	3	Occidental	18-3	def. Chapman, 59-46; def. Cal Lutheran, 70-67
T#39	3	Scranton	17-4	LOST to Susquehanna, 81-89 OT; def. Catholic, 63-61
T#42	2	Eastern Connecticut	16-5	def. Mass-Boston, 79-54; LOST to Mass-Dartmouth, 68-69
T#42	2	WPI	16-5	def. Clark, 79-55; LOST to Coast Guard, 58-73
#44	1	La Roche	19-2	def. Penn State-Behrend, 57-50; def. Pitt-Bradford, 80-54

[AndOne]

Much was LOST recently. 11 of the Top 25 lost. That includes #1 being knocked off by #22, and one team losing twice. Big shakeup in the next poll?

[Pat Coleman]

I previously suggested NCC belonged in the Top 25 prior to the current poll, but this fell on deaf ears.

Or no ears, since only a few voters read this board.

[AndOne]

I previously suggested NCC belonged in the Top 25 prior to the current poll, but this fell on deaf ears.

Or no ears, since only a few voters read this board.

Well then. Perhaps, as a form of enlightenment, the others should follow the lead of those few! 🤔 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

What a weekend!

It was one of those sets of days we have seen often in Division III where at every turn there was something to watch, a result to ponder, and upset to breakdown. The hardwoods across the country had games worth watching all with just three weeks left in the regular season.

It started with Dave and Pat's trip to Holland, Michigan to witness the 200th meeting of Calvin and Hope. The game at DeVos Fieldhouse lived up to expectations. From the crowd to the battle on the court, every moment was a thrill ride.

And the Super Weekend didn't stop there. A number of teams in both Top 25s took losses that not only will shake up the polls, but also shakes up conferences races and adds plenty of intrigue for the first Regional Rankings to be released this week. Oh, and a 200-point explosion from a high-powered offense!

On this special, Monday, edition of Hoopsville, Dave and guests have plenty to try and breakdown. Dave will share his reactions from "The Rivalry" and you will hear one of the crazier stories on how a mom names a son. Plus, hear about the Greenville-Fontbonne game which saw 346 points put on the board. And coaches from Hamilton men and East Texas Baptist women along with one of the top players for WashU women give us insight on how their teams are doing.

Ryan Scott also joins Dave as they give their initial reactions to the latest Top 25 polls and more.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. Monday's show can be see LIVE here: http://bit.ly/2UGhZw2 (and simulcast on Facebook Live and Periscope).

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to dave.mchugh@d3sports.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- George Barber, Greenville men's head coach
- Adam Stockwell, No. 8 Hamilton
- Becca Clark-Callender, WashU. women's senior guard
- "What Is In a Name?," Dina Hackert, Hope '91
- Rusty Rainbolt, No. 15 East Texas Baptist women's coach
- Ryan Scott, D3hoops.com senior writer (Top 25 Double-Take)

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville




Don't forget you can always interact with us:
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[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

For those interested, here is my Top 25 ballot this week: http://bit.ly/2Sfd1JV

Sorry for the delay ... Monday show and UWSP Investigation release yesterday delayed me.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Here are the first rankings for the men this season: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/men-regional-rankings-first

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	616	Nebraska Wesleyan	21-1	def. Simpson, 102-71; 02/09 vs. Wartburg
#2	597	Whitman	20-1	02/08 vs. George Fox; 02/09 vs. Linfield
#3	577	UW-Oshkosh	21-1	def. UW-Whitewater, 85-67; def. UW-Platteville, 83-81 OT; 02/09 vs. #26 UW-Stevens Point
#4	548	Augustana	21-2	def. T#37 Wheaton (Ill.), 93-83; 02/09 vs. Millikin
#5	531	St. Thomas	21-1	def. Gustavus Adolphus, 74-66; def. St. Olaf, 85-78; 02/09 vs. T#37 Augsburg
#6	484	MIT	20-2	def. Coast Guard, 75-54; 02/09 vs. Springfield
#7	456	Randolph-Macon	21-2	def. Hampden-Sydney, 91-53; 02/09 vs. Randolph
#8	416	Hamilton	19-2	02/08 vs. T#29 Middlebury; 02/09 vs. #10 Williams
#9	400	Wooster	19-3	def. Denison, 73-63; 02/09 vs. Wittenberg
#10	391	Williams	19-3	02/08 vs. #19 Amherst; 02/09 vs. #8 Hamilton
#11	338	Marietta	18-4	LOST to Mount Union, 66-78; 02/09 vs. Wilmington
#12	334	Pomona-Pitzer	20-1	02/09 vs. Cal Lutheran
#13	286	North Central (Ill.)	18-4	LOST to Illinois Wesleyan, 64-72; 02/09 vs. T#37 Wheaton (Ill.)
#14	285	Swarthmore	19-3	def. Johns Hopkins, 73-55; 02/09 vs. Dickinson
#15	279	Whitworth	17-4	02/08 vs. Linfield; 02/09 vs. George Fox
#16	257	Christopher Newport	19-3	def. Southern Virginia, 67-64; 02/09 vs. Frostburg State
#17	244	St. John's	18-4	def. T#37 Augsburg, 82-71; def. Concordia-Moorhead, 70-69; 02/09 vs. St. Olaf
#18	195	Wabash	18-4	LOST to DePauw, 79-94; 02/09 vs. Kenyon
#19	181	Amherst	18-3	def. Wesleyan, 61-60; 02/08 vs. #10 Williams; 02/09 vs. T#29 Middlebury
#20	153	Nichols	20-2	def. Roger Williams, 110-77; 02/09 vs. University of New England
#21	118	Capital	18-4	def. Heidelberg, 86-80; 02/09 vs. Baldwin Wallace
#22	90	Loras	17-5	02/09 vs. Coe
#23	46	Plattsburgh State	17-4	02/08 vs. Cortland; 02/09 vs. #28 Oswego State
#24	41	Emory	16-4	02/08 vs. Washington U.; 02/10 vs. Chicago
#25	38	UW-La Crosse	15-7	LOST to UW-River Falls, 58-60; 02/09 vs. UW-Eau Claire

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	37	UW-Stevens Point	15-6	def. UW-Whitewater, 65-47; 02/09 vs. #3 UW-Oshkosh
#27	36	Rochester	16-4	02/08 vs. Chicago; 02/10 vs. Washington U.
#28	26	Oswego State	17-3	02/08 vs. SUNY Potsdam; 02/09 vs. #23 Plattsburgh State
T#29	21	Middlebury	17-5	02/08 vs. #8 Hamilton; 02/09 vs. #19 Amherst
T#29	21	Arcadia	19-3	def. Alvernia, 69-67; 02/09 vs. Lebanon Valley
#31	19	Centre	19-3	02/08 vs. Oglethorpe; 02/10 vs. Berry
T#32	14	Guilford	16-6	LOST to Roanoke, 59-76; 02/09 vs. Bridgewater (Va.)
T#32	14	Gordon	20-2	def. Curry, 88-75; 02/09 vs. Salve Regina
#34	13	New Jersey City	18-5	def. TCNJ, 75-59; 02/09 vs. Rutgers-Camden
T#35	9	Occidental	19-3	def. Redlands, 71-64; 02/09 vs. Whittier
T#35	9	La Roche	20-2	def. Franciscan (Ohio), 66-51; 02/09 vs. Medaille
T#37	2	Augsburg	16-6	LOST to #17 St. John's, 71-82; def. Gustavus Adolphus, 94-88; 02/09 vs. #5 St. Thomas
T#37	2	Wheaton (Ill.)	16-7	LOST to #4 Augustana, 83-93; 02/09 vs. #13 North Central (Ill.)
#39	1	Lynchburg	18-5	def. Ferrum, 76-64; 02/09 vs. Shenandoah

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Thursday night's Hoopsville will be an extended version of the show to cover both the conclusion of the UW Stevens Point men's basketball investigation and our normal programming this time of the season.

The show will begin with continuing coverage of the UW Stevens Point case that finally wrapped up after more than three-and-a-half years. Athletics Director Brad Duckworth will join us for an exclusive, in-depth, interview about the case, the findings, the punishments, and what it all means for UWSP and the basketball program.

We will then shift into what would be a normal Hoopsville episode talking to teams that are making headlines in the final month of the season. Not only are teams surging, but with Regional Rankings now out the focus on who may be in or may be out of the NCAA Tournament starts to come into focus.

In the WBCA Center Court segment, Dave will also talk with a women's assistant coach who is turning heads not only in the program, but also in the conference and around the country.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Thursday's extended show starting at 7:00 p.m. ET here: http://bit.ly/2SyWv6X (or video Facebook Live and Periscope simulcasts).

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to dave.mchugh@d3sports.com or use any of the social media options below.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Brad Duckworth, UW Stevens Point Athletics Director
- Lauren Hayden, Lynchburg women's assistant coach (WBCA Center Court)
- Juli Fulks, No. 21 Transylvania women's coach
- John Krikorian, No. 16 Christopher Newport men's coach
- Chris Downs, St. Lawrence men's coach
- Bob Amsberry, No. 15 Wartburg women's coach

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville




Don't forget you can always interact with us:
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