Top 25 talk

[nescac1]

Tough but fair SpringSt

[BaboNation]

Very early, but so far the New England teams on the top 25 radar who aren't currently inside it:

Babson, Tufts, Springfield, Hamilton, Williams, Colby.  All talented teams without a loss.  I'd say Babson should prob replace WPI as NEWMAC's rep this week ... the rest need a few more weeks of winning ...

Springfield has played a tougher schedule than Babson thus far.  The teams Springfield has played are 8-0 in all other games.  For Babson, the records are 2-6.  And Springfields' opponents have far better Massey ratings.
While I think Babson is off to a good start, they really haven't beaten anyone to brag about.  Springfield has.

Also, I think outside the NEWMAC, UM-Dartmouth might be worth "others receiving votes".  Certainly more so than Babson based on games played.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Nichols starting center, Jerome Cunningham has now missed a second straight game.  We'll have to see how much time he misses with this injury.  They did pull out a road win tonight against Anna Maria and Mike Rapoza, one of the best big men in New England.

[Titan Q]

Carthage 64
#2 UW-Oshkosh 57

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

I usually try to post this "so far" update Thursday morning, to see what's happened since the last poll, and to give a list of potentially noteworthy upcoming games. I forgot to do so this morning, but have now added events to my calendar to remind me for the rest of the regular season.

As has been my practice, the final report will be posted Sunday afternoon/evening (when possible, early enough that Dave can refer to it for his Sunday night Hoopsville broadcast, if he wishes to do so.)

Reminder: If you think a team is worthy of consideration, I can include them in this report if you send me a PM (or post their name here).

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	614	Swarthmore	3-0	won at Eastern, 100-74; won at Neumann, 86-76; def. TCNJ, 88-81; 11/23 vs. Stockton
#2	563	UW-Oshkosh	2-1	won at #17 Augustana, 74-67; won at #3 North Central (Ill.), 76-66; LOST at Carthage, 57-64; 11/23 vs. Elmhurst
#3	510	North Central (Ill.)	1-1	LOST to #2 UW-Oshkosh, 66-76; def. Greenville, 122-103
#4	469	Amherst	1-0	won at Lasell, 86-48; 11/22 vs. Elmira; 11/23 vs. Ken Wright Consolation/Championship Game
#5	455	Wittenberg	1-0	won at Brooklyn, 87-78; 11/23 vs. Mount St. Joseph
#6	418	Emory	3-0	won at #19 Guilford, 89-67; won at Berry, 99-85; def. Sewanee, 94-70; 11/23 vs. Oglethorpe
#7	386	Washington U.	2-1	won at Illinois College, 85-76; won at UW-Whitewater, 90-86; LOST at #29 UW-Platteville, 63-76; 11/22 vs. Coe; 11/23 vs. Whitworth/UW-Eau Claire
#8	349	Nebraska Wesleyan	4-0	def. (n) #12 St. John's, 78-56; def. UW-Superior, 87-51; def. McMurry, 108-86; def. Hardin-Simmons, 88-81; 11/23 vs. #15 St. Thomas; 11/24 vs. TBA
#9	338	Christopher Newport	3-1	LOST at Johns Hopkins, 74-78; def. Shenandoah, 85-62; def. (n) Marywood, 87-56; won at Franklin and Marshall, 74-66; 11/22 vs. Randolph; 11/23 vs. Lynchburg
#10	333	Nichols	3-0	def. (n) #39 Eastern Connecticut, 74-56; def. (n) New England College, 107-104; won at Anna Maria, 82-77; 11/23 vs. Worcester State
#11	313	Texas-Dallas	2-2	LOST at UTA, 50-84; won at Redlands, 74-71 OT; LOST at Whittier, 86-91; def. Trinity (Texas), 78-62
#12	295	St. John's	3-1	LOST to (n) #8 Nebraska Wesleyan, 56-78; won at Marian, 71-43; won at Minnesota-Morris, 86-80; def. Carleton, 79-60
#13	282	Middlebury	3-0	def. Bridgewater State, 85-81; def. Wentworth, 75-64; won at T#47 Keene State, 92-82; 11/21 at SUNY-Canton; 11/23 at Skidmore
#14	269	Wabash	1-1	LOST to Centre, 76-77; def. Earlham, 85-72; 11/22 vs. Greenville; 11/23 vs. TBA
#15	245	St. Thomas	2-1	won at #20 Whitman, 87-79; LOST at #40 Whitworth, 64-85; won at St. Scholastica, 110-64; 11/23 vs. #8 Nebraska Wesleyan; 11/24 vs. TBA
#16	239	WPI	3-1	def. T#47 Brandeis, 55-46; LOST to New England College, 73-78; def. #39 Eastern Connecticut, 88-63; def. #28 Salem State, 91-50; 11/22 vs. Eastern Nazarene; 11/23 at Paula Titus Memorial Tournament
#17	229	Augustana	3-1	LOST to #2 UW-Oshkosh, 67-74; def. Alma, 74-67; def. Calvin, 70-67; def. T#47 Loras, 88-59
#18	227	Marietta	3-0	def. Eastern Mennonite, 92-53; def. Mount St. Joseph, 96-71; won at Emory and Henry, 89-65
#19	216	Guilford	4-1	LOST to #6 Emory, 67-89; won at Greensboro, 87-75; def. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 60-52; def. N.C. Wesleyan, 67-50; def. Averett, 76-61; 11/23 vs. Berry
#20	193	Whitman	2-1	def. Montclair State, 114-104; LOST to #15 St. Thomas, 79-87; def. Cal Lutheran, 106-69; 11/22 vs. Sul Ross State; 11/23 vs. Concordia (Texas)
#21	167	Wooster	2-0	def. Medaille, 110-100; def. Hiram, 98-70; 11/23 vs. Wilmington
#22	128	Baldwin Wallace	2-1	def. Bethany, 95-53; def. Hiram, 81-71; LOST at Westminster (Pa.), 68-78; 11/22 at Hobart
#23	113	Augsburg	1-0	def. Northland, 102-54; 11/23 at Concordia-Moorhead
#24	112	Randolph-Macon	5-0	def. (n) Washington College, 74-47; won at St. Mary's (Md.), 84-40; def. Ursinus, 54-50; won at Messiah, 63-50; won at Washington and Lee, 79-68; 11/23 at Hampden-Sydney
#25	93	St. John Fisher	2-1	LOST to Union, 71-89; def. (n) Cazenovia, 98-81; won at Hilbert, 97-62; 11/21 at T#41 Rochester; 11/23 vs. Rochester Tech

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	83	Oswego	3-0	def. (n) Ithaca, 85-80; def. (n) Keystone, 92-81; won at Clarkson, 80-72
#27	59	Hamilton	3-0	def. (n) TCNJ, 88-81; won at Drew, 88-80; def. Bard, 101-57; 11/23 at T#47 Keene State
#28	58	Salem State	1-4	LOST to (n) Suffolk, 81-94; def. (n) Anna Maria, 89-76; LOST to Mass-Dartmouth, 87-91; LOST to T#47 Keene State, 91-99; LOST at #16 WPI, 50-91
#29	54	UW-Platteville	4-0	def. Finlandia, 112-49; def. Viterbo, 70-67; def. #7 Washington U., 76-63; def. Concordia-Chicago, 89-72
#30	49	York (Pa.)	3-1	won at Dickinson, 90-63; def. (n) Johnson and Wales, 84-55; LOST at Roanoke, 59-74; def. Lancaster Bible, 93-71; 11/23 at Johns Hopkins
#31	45	Wheaton (Ill.)	2-1	def. Principia, 90-71; def. UW-River Falls, 86-60; LOST to Lake Forest, 75-78; 11/23 vs. Olivet
#32	35	MIT	2-2	LOST at T#36 Endicott, 64-100; LOST to Mass-Boston, 64-71; def. Eastern Nazarene, 66-64; won at Pine Manor, 95-49; 11/23 at Lasell
#33	31	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	1-1	LOST at #40 Whitworth, 83-93; def. (n) George Fox, 80-72
#34	29	New Jersey City	1-1	LOST to Stevens, 75-81; def. Mount St. Vincent, 81-62; 11/23 at Farmingdale State
#35	24	Scranton	3-1	def. Stevenson, 67-54; def. Houghton, 89-69; LOST to William Paterson, 69-75; won at Wilkes, 91-62; 11/23 at Cabrini
T#36	18	Endicott	2-2	def. #32 MIT, 100-64; LOST to (n) Springfield, 82-92; def. (n) Lesley, 102-69; LOST at Eastern Nazarene, 79-91; 11/23 at Bridgewater State
T#36	18	Mount Union	2-0	def. Albion, 71-52; def. Carnegie Mellon, 94-72; 11/23 at Adrian; 11/24 at Trine
#38	15	Pomona-Pitzer	0-1	LOST at Westmont, 76-84; 11/21 at Biola; 11/23 vs. Cal Miramar
#39	14	Eastern Connecticut	0-2	LOST to (n) #10 Nichols, 56-74; LOST at #16 WPI, 63-88; 11/21 at Johnson and Wales
#40	12	Whitworth	4-0	def. #33 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 93-83; def. Trinity (Texas), 96-73; def. Cal Lutheran, 105-51; def. #15 St. Thomas, 85-64; 11/22 vs. UW-Eau Claire; 11/23 vs. TBA
T#41	5	Rochester	3-0	won at SUNY Geneseo, 72-61; def. Misericordia, 77-56; def. Heidelberg, 75-52; 11/21 vs. #25 St. John Fisher; 11/23 vs. Nazareth
T#41	5	SUNY Oneonta	1-2	LOST to Alvernia, 70-71; LOST to Wesley, 70-86; def. #44 Williams, 74-69 OT; 11/21 at Hartwick
#43	4	Tufts	2-0	won at Emerson, 103-82; def. Mass-Dartmouth, 91-78; 11/21 vs. Lasell; 11/23 vs. St. Joseph (Conn.)
#44	3	Williams	2-1	def. Worcester State, 70-51; def. SUNYIT, 83-48; LOST at T#41 SUNY Oneonta, 69-74 OT; 11/23 vs. Wesleyan
T#45	2	Brockport	1-1	LOST at Morrisville State, 70-73; def. Hobart, 75-74; 11/23 at Medaille
T#45	2	Covenant	3-0	def. (n) Birmingham-Southern, 71-66; won at Sewanee, 71-62; def. Birmingham-Southern, 88-72; 11/23 at Centre
T#47	1	Brandeis	2-2	LOST at #16 WPI, 46-55; won at Rivier, 91-56; def. Emerson, 76-74; LOST at Suffolk, 57-72; 11/23 vs. Rhode Island College
T#47	1	Keene State	1-2	LOST at Springfield, 101-106 OT; won at #28 Salem State, 99-91; LOST to #13 Middlebury, 82-92; 11/23 vs. #27 Hamilton
T#47	1	Loras	3-1	def. Concordia-Chicago, 108-85; def. Blackburn, 88-75; def. Concordia (Wis.), 85-65; LOST at #17 Augustana, 59-88; 11/23 at St. Scholastica
T#47	1	Yeshiva	3-1	LOST at Occidental, 60-72; won at Caltech, 77-58; won at Salisbury, 79-71; won at Washington College, 78-68; 11/21 vs. Brooklyn; 11/23 at Mount St. Vincent

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It might be early in the 2019-20 season, but there are already big games being played, surprising results, and teams off to tremendous starts. It isn't even Thanksgiving ... yet.

We start prepping for the big day of Turkey by stuffing ourselves full of DIII basketball topics on Thursday's show. We talk retirement and coaching changes (since we didn't really talk about that Sunday), plus several teams have caught our attention for how they have started their campaigns.

On Thursday night's show, Dave chats with NYU women who are undefeated and defeated Stevens in their last time on the court. We also chat with Carthage men who knocked off the defending national champions recently. Plus, the dean of Division III coaching decided days before the season began to hang up the jacket. F&M's Glenn Robinson talks about why he decided to retire within distance of 1,000 wins.

And what should we expect on the women's side of things this season. D3hoops.com Senior Editor Gordon Mann joins the show to take a deep dive into the Top 25 and things he has seen in the first two weeks of the season.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Thursday's show LIVE in the video player above starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. An audio-only podcast will also be available on the right side of the page shortly after the show is off the air.

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Bosko Djurickovic, Carthage men's coach
- Glenn Robinson, former F&M men's coach
- Meg Barber, NYU women's head coach
- Gordon Mann, D3hoops.com Senior Editor

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
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We also have the podcast now on iHeartRadio and others coming. We will update them once we have better abilities to do so.

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[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Now it looks like Sobel is injured for Middlebury - only ten minutes last game, not playing tonight.  Cunningham at Nichols.  Kena Gilmour didn't play last night.  I saw TCNJ; they're missing a starting forward.  It feels like a lot of missed games early for top teams.

[Greek Tragedy]

Wabash edges Greenville in Waukesha tonight. First time seeing Jack Davidson in action. Man, that guy is smooth.

[Titan Q]

Final from Oshkosh:

Elmhurst 97
#2 UW-Oshkosh 92

[WUPHF]

Whitworth is not as good as I expected (n = 2).

[Titan Q]

We vote tomorrow, and this ballot is going to be a really good example of how confusing it is to vote in the Top 25 poll in the early going. 

The preseason ballot (here is mine - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4097.msg1951041#msg1951041) was obviously 100% based on what we think about teams.  There are no 2019-20 results to go on.  By mid-December, I try to eliminate all preseason opinions from my voting process and go 100% on results.  But what about a vote on November 25 with teams playing just 2-5 games? What % should this ballot be based on preseason assumptions vs actual 2019-20 results? That gets tricky.

For example, below are a few things I am trying to sort out in my head just related to the CCIW and UW-Oshkosh.

How should CCIW teams be ordered in the week 2 ballot?
I think there are four CCIW teams that merit strong consideration:
* #3 North Central (1-1) - lost at home to #2 UW-Oshkosh by 10; beat Greenville by 19; clear preseason CCIW preseason favorite.
* #17 Augustana (3-1) - lost at home to #2 UW-Oshkosh; close wins over Alma and Calvin; dominated Loras; preseason CCIW #2.
* Carthage (5-0)- beat Beloit by 23; beat Greenville by 7; beat #2 UW-Oshkosh by 7; beat Finlandia by 58; beat Rose-H by 10; CCIW preseason #4.
* Elmhurst (3-0) - beat preseason MWC favorite St. Norbert by 25; beat Illinois Tech by 22; won at #2 UW-Oshkosh, led wire to wire; preseason CCIW 5.

(I am not yet looking at preseason CCIW #3 Illinois Wesleyan, 4-1, due to the home loss to Calvin, but the Titans look like a Top 25 team to me.)

Based on 2019-20 results, I have a hard time not going with this order:
* Elmhurst
* Carthage
* Augustana
* North Central

Elmhurst won at the defending champs by 5 in a game they never trailed, led by 10 at half, and led by an average of about 7 in the 2nd half.

Carthage beat Oshkosh at home by 7 in a game they led by 8 at the half, and led by an average of about 7 in the 2nd.

Augustana lost at home to Oshkosh by by 7.  It was a 3-point game at the half and Oshkosh led by about 10 throughout the 2nd.  Augustana played without 6/11/240 Micah Martin. They now have him back and he's averaging 17.7 ppg, 8.3 rpg.

NCC lost at home to Oshkosh by 10.  It was a 12-point Oshkosh lead at the half, and the Titans led by an average of about 9 in the 2nd.

Do I continue to assume what everyone around the CCIW did coming in, that NCC is the best team?  (Do I overlook the dramatically different head-to-head results between NCC and UWO and Elmhurst and UWO?)

I have decided to go based on the early results, and not the preseason.  In this poll I will have Elmhurst as the highest CCIW team (maybe about #14 ish), followed by Carthage.  I'll keep NCC ahead of Augustana for now -- the common opponent UWO result was really close.

On October 27, my preseason ballot, I had NCC #1.  But I would just feel funny not having Elmhurst higher than NCC on this ballot.  I would also feel funny having Elmhurst higher than maybe #14 (after not really having them on my radar before yesterday).  So basically I am going NCC #1 to somewhere in the teens, and I realize that seems like a big drop, but every game matters -- and NCC lost a home game to a team that lost to Carthage and Elmhurst.


Where should UW-Oshkosh be ranked?  How far should they fall?
The preseason poll had UW-Oshkosh #2.  They have played 4 games, all against the CCIW - results noted above.
* at #17-Augustana: W by 7
* at #2- NCC: W by 10
* at Carthage: L by 7
* vs Elmhurst: L by 5

Do we assume NCC is really #2 and Augie #17 as we assess UWO's two wins?  To me that is the first thing to sort out - are those wins as great as we assumed at the time?

How do we process the two UWO losses? Do we assume Carthage was just a tough road game where they shot it terribly?  And how do we process the result yesterday, where the Titans were dominated by the team we thought was CCIW #5?

In general terms, do we drop Oshkosh from #2 to, like, #16?  Is that about right?  Too severe? Not severe enough?

In figuring out where to put Oshkosh...since strength of schedules vary so much we also have to look at all of that.  For example, if #4 Amherst played Augustana, NCC, Carthage, and Elmhurst instead of Lassell, Elmira, and Fitchburg State, what do we think their record would be?  Do we drop UWO a bunch for losing two games while being cool with Amherst scheduling Elmira and winning by 56?


Where should UW-Oshkosh be ranked relative to the 4 CCIW teams they have faced?
The biggie here is UWO vs Elmhurst.  The Preseason Top 25 had UWO #2.  Elmhurst didn't receive any votes...and, again, was #5 in the CCIW preseason poll.

But Elmhurst dominated the Titans yesterday -- they looked like the better team.

So, do we assume that was a bad performance by UWO?  Or do we go by what we saw yesterday?

And how 'bout UWO vs Carthage.  Carthage won head-to-head (at Carthage).  Which team should be ranked higher?

I think UWO clearly has to be ranked ahead of NCC and Augustana -- head-to-head wins in their buildings.

I have landed on the following order of the teams I have discussed here:
* Elmhurst
* Oshkosh
* Carthage
* NCC
* Augustana

Oshkosh vs Carthage is a tough one for me -- I am gonna keep UWO like one spot higher.

I think you will agree this is all very complicated to figure out!

[y_jack_lok]

Complicated, indeed. And you haven't even articulated in that analysis, though I'm sure you are thinking about, all the other teams from all the other conferences on the Top 25 radar. My mind would be fried. Thanks for sharing that.

[Titan Q]

Oh, and huge kudos to the teams that play good schedules.  For me, there is nothing worse than trying to vote on teams in the upper half of the poll that play awful schedules.

[Titan Q]

Complicated, indeed. And you haven't even articulated in that analysis, though I'm sure you are thinking about, all the other teams from all the other conferences on the Top 25 radar. My mind would be fried. Thanks for sharing that.

Right, what I posted above is just related to one little sliver of the big picture.  I have to now take that piece and sort it out vs the rest of the country.

Super tricky stuff!

[Titan Q]

This is not my final ballot (I need to think about some more), but it is probably pretty close.

1. Swarthmore (4-0)
2. Emory (4-0)
3. Amherst (3-0)
4. Wittenberg (2-0)
5. Middlebury (5-0)
6. Nichols (4-0)
7. UW-Platteville (4-0)
8. St. Thomas (3-1)
9. Wash U (4-1)
10. Nebraska Wesleyan (4-1)
11. Johns Hopkins (4-0)
12. Elmhurst (3-0)
13. Christopher Newport 5-1)
14. St. John's (3-1)
15. UW-Oshkosh (2-2)
16. Carthage (5-0)
17. North Central (1-1)
18. Wooster (3-0)
19. Marietta (3-0)
20. Randolph-Macon (6-0)
21. Whitman (4-1)
22. Augsburg (2-0)
23. Whitworth (5-1)
24. Augustana (3-1)
25. Centre (4-1)
-----
Watch List:

Rochester (5-0)
Wabash (3-1)
Illinois Wesleyan (4-1)
Guilford (4-1)
Hope (3-0)
Buena Vista (6-0)
Springfield (5-0)
Oswego St (3-0)
Colby (5-0)
John Carroll (3-0)
Hamilton (4-0)
UW-La Crosse (4-0)
Monmouth (3-0)
Lake Forest (3-1)
WPI (5-1)
Yeshiva (5-1)
Texas-Dallas (2-2)
Muhlenberg (6-0)
Scranton (4-1)