Top 25 talk

Started by Lurker, March 23, 2005, 09:02:04 AM

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kiko

I can't really get worked up about someone's SOS when we are one-fifth of the way through the season.  Their SOS will drift toward a more typical level over the next couple of months, and the Lord Jeffs Mammoths won't be anywhere close to #341 when the rankings really start to matter.

Titan Q

Quote from: kiko on December 03, 2019, 12:45:35 AM
I can't really get worked up about someone's SOS when we are one-fifth of the way through the season.  Their SOS will drift toward a more typical level over the next couple of months, and the Lord Jeffs Mammoths won't be anywhere close to #341 when the rankings really start to matter.

That is why we are only talking about it here on the Top 25 board as it applies to Top 25 consideration in early-December.

It's not a regional ranking/primary criteria kinda convo.

kiko

#12707
Quote from: Titan Q on December 03, 2019, 02:38:11 PM
Quote from: kiko on December 03, 2019, 12:45:35 AM
I can't really get worked up about someone's SOS when we are one-fifth of the way through the season.  Their SOS will drift toward a more typical level over the next couple of months, and the Lord Jeffs Mammoths won't be anywhere close to #341 when the rankings really start to matter.

That is why we are only talking about it here on the Top 25 board as it applies to Top 25 consideration in early-December.

It's not a regional ranking/primary criteria kinda convo.

I get that, but the same logic applies.  If I think Amherst slots into a particular spot in the rankings, that perception is not likely to evolve much assuming they take care of business against a couple of Red Velvet cupcakes.  I just don't think I have new data points that would tell me I should think they are better or worse than I thought (assuming they beat their weaker opponents by comfortable margins, which we know Amherst did not do in recent games).  My perception will eventually evolve based on their results against quality opponents as the season progresses, but the absence of those games early doesn't really make me think more or less of a school's relative position in the pecking order.

Darryl Nester

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#1622Swarthmore7-0won at Ursinus, 88-86; 12/07 vs. Gettysburg
#2586Emory8-0won at LaGrange, 98-89; 12/07 vs. Piedmont
#3540Wittenberg4-0won at DePauw, 88-63; 12/07 vs. Allegheny
#4522Middlebury7-012/06 vs. New England College; 12/08 at Stevens
#5466St. Thomas6-1def. Macalester, 64-35; 12/07 vs. Gustavus Adolphus
#6445Nebraska Wesleyan8-1def. Buena Vista, 78-65; 12/07 at Dubuque
#7429Nichols6-0def. Wentworth, 72-64; 12/07 at Lasell
#8423Marietta5-0def. Otterbein, 78-56; 12/07 vs. John Carroll
#9403Randolph-Macon8-0def. Bridgewater (Va.), 97-55; 12/07 vs. #18 Christopher Newport
#10356Washington U.7-1def. Rhodes, 80-55
#11330UW-Platteville6-012/06 vs. Hope; 12/08 vs. Olivet
#12311St. John's5-1def. Concordia-Moorhead, 66-41; 12/07 at Hamline
#13296UW-Oshkosh4-212/06 at Alma; 12/07 at Calvin
#14290Amherst3-2LOST at #28 Babson, 82-87; 12/07 at Emerson
#15250Johns Hopkins7-0def. Gettysburg, 72-66; 12/07 at T#37 Muhlenberg
#16244Guilford8-1won at Roanoke, 74-58; 12/07 vs. Virginia Wesleyan
#17228Elmhurst6-0won at Millikin, 85-60
#18163Christopher Newport7-2def. William Peace, 83-60; 12/07 at #9 Randolph-Macon
#19160North Central (Ill.)4-3LOST at #21 Carthage, 81-83; 12/07 at North Park
#20143Whitworth5-1IDLE
#21127Carthage6-0def. #19 North Central (Ill.), 83-81; 12/07 at #39 Illinois Wesleyan
#22109WPI8-1def. #36 Tufts, 72-62; 12/07 at Albertus Magnus
#23105UW-La Crosse6-0IDLE
#2482Augustana4-212/07 vs. Carroll
#2564Oswego State4-1LOST at St. Lawrence, 82-83 OT; 12/06 at Brockport; 12/07 at SUNY Geneseo


Others receiving votes
Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#2655Hamilton7-0won at Hartwick, 91-81; 12/07 at SUNY-Purchase; 12/08 vs. Johnson and Wales
#2753UW-Stevens Point5-012/07 vs. Hope
#2849Babson7-0def. #14 Amherst, 87-82; 12/07 at Salem State; 12/08 at TBA
#2947Wooster4-1won at Allegheny, 62-61; 12/07 vs. T#44 Wabash
#3034Augsburg4-1def. St. Olaf, 85-57; 12/07 vs. Carleton
#3132Centre7-1def. Boyce, 87-67; 12/07 at Sewanee
#3229Benedictine7-1def. Edgewood, 77-66; 12/07 vs. Dominican
#3327Colby8-0def. Thomas, 87-69; 12/07 at Colby-Sawyer
#3425Whitman5-2IDLE
#3517Springfield6-0def. Trinity (Conn.), 67-62; 12/07 at Williams
#3614Tufts5-1LOST at #22 WPI, 62-72; 12/07 vs. Brandeis; 12/08 vs. TBD
T#3710Muhlenberg8-0won at Washington College, 74-66; 12/07 vs. #15 Johns Hopkins
T#3710UW-Eau Claire7-1IDLE
#399Illinois Wesleyan5-2LOST to Wheaton (Ill.), 60-76; 12/07 vs. #21 Carthage
#406Yeshiva7-1won at St. Joseph's (Bklyn.), 85-51; 12/05 at Farmingdale State; 12/08 at St. Joseph's (L.I.)
#415Rochester7-1IDLE
#424Pomona-Pitzer4-2def. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 51-48; 12/07 vs. Bethesda University
#432Mary Hardin-Baylor6-1won at Texas Lutheran, 62-57
T#441Mount Union4-2won at John Carroll, 96-79; 12/07 vs. Ohio Northern
T#441Wabash5-2def. Ohio Wesleyan, 79-61; 12/07 at #29 Wooster

WUPHF

The live stats says Alma over Oshkosh.

Titan Q

#12710
Quote from: WUPHF on December 06, 2019, 08:54:42 PM
The live stats says Alma over Oshkosh.

Alma 88
#13 UW-Oshkosh 81

https://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2019-20/boxscores/20191206_syig.xml?view=boxscore

Another game with a bad A:TO ratio for UWO (10:14).  On the season the Titans are a 0.9 A:TO, which is obviously not good.  Last year they were 1.5. The ball just is not moving like it did last year with Ben Boots (134 A, 66 TO) and Brett Wittchow (92 A, 43 TO).

And another 3-point shooting struggle (5-25).

Titan Q

Could we see preseason #2 UW-Oshkosh (4-3) and #3 North Central (4-3) both out of the Week 3 poll?

ronk

Quote from: Titan Q on December 07, 2019, 09:19:27 AM
Could we see preseason #2 UW-Oshkosh (4-3) and #3 North Central (4-3) both out of the Week 3 poll?

That will be the true test for pollsters - a conglomeration of everything to consider: preseason info, inseason performance, eye test, historical bias, etc. You're going to have a busy weekend, conscientious Titan.  ;)

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: ronk on December 07, 2019, 10:18:07 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on December 07, 2019, 09:19:27 AM
Could we see preseason #2 UW-Oshkosh (4-3) and #3 North Central (4-3) both out of the Week 3 poll?

That will be the true test for pollsters - a conglomeration of everything to consider: preseason info, inseason performance, eye test, historical bias, etc. You're going to have a busy weekend, conscientious Titan.  ;)

Even with the eye test, we have to ask whether one tremendous game against Augustana makes up for a bunch of mediocre ones.  Becoming harder and harder to justify.

I have, I think, found a pretty decent method for making a ballot, at least early in the season.  I got through the conferences, checking in on individual teams, examining record, schedule, circumstances, injuries, etc - and make a list of every notable team and kind of rank their resume.  Typically I'll get 40-50 teams this way - sometimes more.  I double check my Top 25, then, from among those Top 25, I try to rank them in terms of which team I'd favor in one neutral game tomorrow.  If it gets tricky, I compare two or three teams to every team above them and see which I'd have more confidence in against the group.

It hasn't taken a terribly long time the last few weeks and while I've been proving wrong by results, I've turned in ballots I'm very happy with and feel comfortable defending.

It may not be a bad system for the rest of the year.

I say all that to say: Oshkosh is still plenty talented and they could beat a lot of teams, but if their resume gets so bad as to not be considered, they're probably falling off my ballot.  An Alma loss is a lot harder to overlook than the others.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

Titan Q

Will be interesting to see how Oshkosh @ Calvin goes today.  I think pretty safe to safe Calvin is a lot better than Alma.

Titan Q

Several good ones today, including...

#18-Christopher Newport at #9-Randolph-Macon

John Carroll at #8-Marietta

#13-UW-Oshkosh at Calvin

Virginia Wesleyan at #16-Guilford

#15-Johns Hopkins at Muhlenberg (8-0)

Wabash at Wooster

#21-Carthage at Illinois Wesleyan

WUPHF

Lasell beats Nichols to improve to 1-8!

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: WUPHF on December 07, 2019, 04:52:56 PM
Lasell beats Nichols to improve to 1-8!

Without Cunningham Nichols is just a very different team on both ends of the floor.  They're still very good, but not close to what they were going to be.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

WUPHF

OK, good to know.

Lasell actually looked good against Brandeis for what that is worth.

Greek Tragedy

Quote from: Titan Q on December 07, 2019, 11:23:05 AM
Will be interesting to see how Oshkosh @ Calvin goes today.  I think pretty safe to safe Calvin is a lot better than Alma.

https://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2019-20/boxscores/20191207_ibqy.xml?view=boxscore

Bad news for Calvin as Oshkosh takes out their frustrations on the Knights.
Pointers
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