Top 25 talk

[kiko]

I can't really get worked up about someone's SOS when we are one-fifth of the way through the season.  Their SOS will drift toward a more typical level over the next couple of months, and the Lord Jeffs Mammoths won't be anywhere close to #341 when the rankings really start to matter.

[Titan Q]

I can't really get worked up about someone's SOS when we are one-fifth of the way through the season.  Their SOS will drift toward a more typical level over the next couple of months, and the Lord Jeffs Mammoths won't be anywhere close to #341 when the rankings really start to matter.

That is why we are only talking about it here on the Top 25 board as it applies to Top 25 consideration in early-December.

It's not a regional ranking/primary criteria kinda convo.

[kiko]

I can't really get worked up about someone's SOS when we are one-fifth of the way through the season.  Their SOS will drift toward a more typical level over the next couple of months, and the Lord Jeffs Mammoths won't be anywhere close to #341 when the rankings really start to matter.

That is why we are only talking about it here on the Top 25 board as it applies to Top 25 consideration in early-December.

It's not a regional ranking/primary criteria kinda convo.

I get that, but the same logic applies.  If I think Amherst slots into a particular spot in the rankings, that perception is not likely to evolve much assuming they take care of business against a couple of Red Velvet cupcakes.  I just don't think I have new data points that would tell me I should think they are better or worse than I thought (assuming they beat their weaker opponents by comfortable margins, which we know Amherst did not do in recent games).  My perception will eventually evolve based on their results against quality opponents as the season progresses, but the absence of those games early doesn't really make me think more or less of a school's relative position in the pecking order.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	622	Swarthmore	7-0	won at Ursinus, 88-86; 12/07 vs. Gettysburg
#2	586	Emory	8-0	won at LaGrange, 98-89; 12/07 vs. Piedmont
#3	540	Wittenberg	4-0	won at DePauw, 88-63; 12/07 vs. Allegheny
#4	522	Middlebury	7-0	12/06 vs. New England College; 12/08 at Stevens
#5	466	St. Thomas	6-1	def. Macalester, 64-35; 12/07 vs. Gustavus Adolphus
#6	445	Nebraska Wesleyan	8-1	def. Buena Vista, 78-65; 12/07 at Dubuque
#7	429	Nichols	6-0	def. Wentworth, 72-64; 12/07 at Lasell
#8	423	Marietta	5-0	def. Otterbein, 78-56; 12/07 vs. John Carroll
#9	403	Randolph-Macon	8-0	def. Bridgewater (Va.), 97-55; 12/07 vs. #18 Christopher Newport
#10	356	Washington U.	7-1	def. Rhodes, 80-55
#11	330	UW-Platteville	6-0	12/06 vs. Hope; 12/08 vs. Olivet
#12	311	St. John's	5-1	def. Concordia-Moorhead, 66-41; 12/07 at Hamline
#13	296	UW-Oshkosh	4-2	12/06 at Alma; 12/07 at Calvin
#14	290	Amherst	3-2	LOST at #28 Babson, 82-87; 12/07 at Emerson
#15	250	Johns Hopkins	7-0	def. Gettysburg, 72-66; 12/07 at T#37 Muhlenberg
#16	244	Guilford	8-1	won at Roanoke, 74-58; 12/07 vs. Virginia Wesleyan
#17	228	Elmhurst	6-0	won at Millikin, 85-60
#18	163	Christopher Newport	7-2	def. William Peace, 83-60; 12/07 at #9 Randolph-Macon
#19	160	North Central (Ill.)	4-3	LOST at #21 Carthage, 81-83; 12/07 at North Park
#20	143	Whitworth	5-1	IDLE
#21	127	Carthage	6-0	def. #19 North Central (Ill.), 83-81; 12/07 at #39 Illinois Wesleyan
#22	109	WPI	8-1	def. #36 Tufts, 72-62; 12/07 at Albertus Magnus
#23	105	UW-La Crosse	6-0	IDLE
#24	82	Augustana	4-2	12/07 vs. Carroll
#25	64	Oswego State	4-1	LOST at St. Lawrence, 82-83 OT; 12/06 at Brockport; 12/07 at SUNY Geneseo

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	55	Hamilton	7-0	won at Hartwick, 91-81; 12/07 at SUNY-Purchase; 12/08 vs. Johnson and Wales
#27	53	UW-Stevens Point	5-0	12/07 vs. Hope
#28	49	Babson	7-0	def. #14 Amherst, 87-82; 12/07 at Salem State; 12/08 at TBA
#29	47	Wooster	4-1	won at Allegheny, 62-61; 12/07 vs. T#44 Wabash
#30	34	Augsburg	4-1	def. St. Olaf, 85-57; 12/07 vs. Carleton
#31	32	Centre	7-1	def. Boyce, 87-67; 12/07 at Sewanee
#32	29	Benedictine	7-1	def. Edgewood, 77-66; 12/07 vs. Dominican
#33	27	Colby	8-0	def. Thomas, 87-69; 12/07 at Colby-Sawyer
#34	25	Whitman	5-2	IDLE
#35	17	Springfield	6-0	def. Trinity (Conn.), 67-62; 12/07 at Williams
#36	14	Tufts	5-1	LOST at #22 WPI, 62-72; 12/07 vs. Brandeis; 12/08 vs. TBD
T#37	10	Muhlenberg	8-0	won at Washington College, 74-66; 12/07 vs. #15 Johns Hopkins
T#37	10	UW-Eau Claire	7-1	IDLE
#39	9	Illinois Wesleyan	5-2	LOST to Wheaton (Ill.), 60-76; 12/07 vs. #21 Carthage
#40	6	Yeshiva	7-1	won at St. Joseph's (Bklyn.), 85-51; 12/05 at Farmingdale State; 12/08 at St. Joseph's (L.I.)
#41	5	Rochester	7-1	IDLE
#42	4	Pomona-Pitzer	4-2	def. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 51-48; 12/07 vs. Bethesda University
#43	2	Mary Hardin-Baylor	6-1	won at Texas Lutheran, 62-57
T#44	1	Mount Union	4-2	won at John Carroll, 96-79; 12/07 vs. Ohio Northern
T#44	1	Wabash	5-2	def. Ohio Wesleyan, 79-61; 12/07 at #29 Wooster

[WUPHF]

The live stats says Alma over Oshkosh.

[Titan Q]

The live stats says Alma over Oshkosh.

Alma 88
#13 UW-Oshkosh 81

https://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2019-20/boxscores/20191206_syig.xml?view=boxscore

Another game with a bad A:TO ratio for UWO (10:14).  On the season the Titans are a 0.9 A:TO, which is obviously not good.  Last year they were 1.5. The ball just is not moving like it did last year with Ben Boots (134 A, 66 TO) and Brett Wittchow (92 A, 43 TO).

And another 3-point shooting struggle (5-25).

[Titan Q]

Could we see preseason #2 UW-Oshkosh (4-3) and #3 North Central (4-3) both out of the Week 3 poll?

[ronk]

Could we see preseason #2 UW-Oshkosh (4-3) and #3 North Central (4-3) both out of the Week 3 poll?

That will be the true test for pollsters - a conglomeration of everything to consider: preseason info, inseason performance, eye test, historical bias, etc. You're going to have a busy weekend, conscientious Titan. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Could we see preseason #2 UW-Oshkosh (4-3) and #3 North Central (4-3) both out of the Week 3 poll?

That will be the true test for pollsters - a conglomeration of everything to consider: preseason info, inseason performance, eye test, historical bias, etc. You're going to have a busy weekend, conscientious Titan. 

Even with the eye test, we have to ask whether one tremendous game against Augustana makes up for a bunch of mediocre ones.  Becoming harder and harder to justify.

I have, I think, found a pretty decent method for making a ballot, at least early in the season.  I got through the conferences, checking in on individual teams, examining record, schedule, circumstances, injuries, etc - and make a list of every notable team and kind of rank their resume.  Typically I'll get 40-50 teams this way - sometimes more.  I double check my Top 25, then, from among those Top 25, I try to rank them in terms of which team I'd favor in one neutral game tomorrow.  If it gets tricky, I compare two or three teams to every team above them and see which I'd have more confidence in against the group.

It hasn't taken a terribly long time the last few weeks and while I've been proving wrong by results, I've turned in ballots I'm very happy with and feel comfortable defending.

It may not be a bad system for the rest of the year.

I say all that to say: Oshkosh is still plenty talented and they could beat a lot of teams, but if their resume gets so bad as to not be considered, they're probably falling off my ballot.  An Alma loss is a lot harder to overlook than the others.

[Titan Q]

Will be interesting to see how Oshkosh @ Calvin goes today.  I think pretty safe to safe Calvin is a lot better than Alma.

[Titan Q]

Several good ones today, including...

#18-Christopher Newport at #9-Randolph-Macon

John Carroll at #8-Marietta

#13-UW-Oshkosh at Calvin

Virginia Wesleyan at #16-Guilford

#15-Johns Hopkins at Muhlenberg (8-0)

Wabash at Wooster

#21-Carthage at Illinois Wesleyan

[WUPHF]

Lasell beats Nichols to improve to 1-8!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Lasell beats Nichols to improve to 1-8!

Without Cunningham Nichols is just a very different team on both ends of the floor.  They're still very good, but not close to what they were going to be.

[WUPHF]

OK, good to know.

Lasell actually looked good against Brandeis for what that is worth.

[Greek Tragedy]

Will be interesting to see how Oshkosh @ Calvin goes today.  I think pretty safe to safe Calvin is a lot better than Alma.

https://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2019-20/boxscores/20191207_ibqy.xml?view=boxscore

Bad news for Calvin as Oshkosh takes out their frustrations on the Knights.