Top 25 talk

Started by Lurker, March 23, 2005, 09:02:04 AM

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WUPHF

Swarthmore plays a decent schedule and then gets a down to the wire, three-point win Johns Hopkins at home.

Emory gets the win over Guilford and then plays a decent schedule.

Have they separated themselves?

Or, is everyone still adjusting to the fact that so many preseason Top 25 teams have taken a loss and undefeated and previously unranked teams have emerged


Titan Q

#12751
Quote from: WUPHF on December 11, 2019, 12:24:56 AM
Swarthmore plays a decent schedule and then gets a down to the wire, three-point win Johns Hopkins at home.

Emory gets the win over Guilford and then plays a decent schedule.

Have they separated themselves?

Or, is everyone still adjusting to the fact that so many preseason Top 25 teams have taken a loss and undefeated and previously unranked teams have emerged

The Swarthmore win last night was not really down to the wire.  Johns Hopkins did a nice job grinding out the last 3 minutes to get to that 3-point margin of defeat, but the Garnet really controlled the 2nd half.  I don't think Hopkins had the ball and a chance to tie in the entire 2nd half from what I remember.

But your question is very fair.

I think Swarthmore and Emory should be #1 and #2 in the poll.  I am very impressed by both.  But I really do not see much, if any, separation between these two and whoever the next 10 or so are.  I certainly could be wrong but from what I have seen, these teams vs, say, #9 Wash U or #12 Elmhurst (teams I have seen multiple times) would be a "pick 'em" on a neutral floor.

I'll go a step further to say the separation between these teams and teams way further down the poll is very small.  UW-Oshkosh...the other CCIW teams getting votes (again, I am using the teams I have seen the most)...etc...I see very close games there that could go either way.

It's a great season to follow - so many teams can get to Fort Wayne and Atlanta.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)


Hopkins had a terrific game plan, but Swarthmore did not play their best game last night.  Obviously JHU is good enough to beat Swarthmore on any given night, but two disparity between the overall talent and ability of the teams was apparent.  I believe JHU to be a year away.  Maybe they'll get there by March, but they still rely a little too much on younger, less experienced players.  Regardless of what happens, they should be near the top of our preseason rankings next year.

I think Swat and Emory are #1 and #2 right now, but I don't subscribe to the "separating themselves" narrative unless you include Randolph-Macon and maybe Elmhurst in that category.  Witt might be there, too, but I still have more I want to see from them.

We just don't (and, I believe, won't) have a dominant team this season.  Swarthmore has put together a tremendous system.  They have a very disciplined team that plays 10 guys big minutes and isn't dependent on any one player, which allows them to be incredibly consistent and lends itself to very high win totals.  That doesn't mean they're head and shoulders better than anyone else on a given night, though - it just drastically improves their odds of winning.

I'm voting them number one because I think the chances of Swarthmore being national champion are higher than anyone else's chances.  But I also think the chances that one of the very good teams they'll have to face over the course of potentially six games in March will beat them is pretty high, too.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

WUPHF

As an addendum, those Massey SOS numbers after last night:

Swarthmore No. 79
Emory No. 96

Elmhurst No. 1
Augustana No. 6
Platteville No. 11
St. Thomas No. 31
Washington University No. 42
Randolph Macon No. 81
Carthage No. 87
Wittenburg No. 185
________
Insert Massey disclaimers

SpringSt7

I've never had a strong feeling either way about the Massey Ratings, but we are allowed to use other factors than SOS to determine whether or not a team is good, especially if 1 of the teams in question returns close to their entire national championship finalist roster and is undefeated to start the season.

Maybe we should just focus a little bit more on watching the games, which I understand is easier said than done, especially this early in the season.


PS--Massey's overall ratings: Swarthmore 3, Emory 4.

WUPHF

Quote from: SpringSt7 on December 11, 2019, 02:23:05 PM
I've never had a strong feeling either way about the Massey Ratings, but we are allowed to use other factors than SOS to determine whether or not a team is good, especially if 1 of the teams in question returns close to their entire national championship finalist roster and is undefeated to start the season.

Maybe we should just focus a little bit more on watching the games, which I understand is easier said than done, especially this early in the season.

Agreed and hence the addendum (ad·​den·​dum | \ ə-ˈden-dəm 1: supplement) remark.

y_jack_lok

I watched the last few minutes of the first half and most of the second half of Middlebury vs Stevens on Sunday. Wondering what people think about Middlebury, currently ranked #4 with a Massey SOS of 183. Not much has been said about them here. They have a lot of height.

Also, not much has been said here about current #3 Wittenberg with a Massey SOS of 185 (noted above by WUPFH). Witt has only played five games so far, the fewest of any Top 25 team.

Not suggesting relatively high Massey SOS calls into question the rankings. Just looking for thoughts.

SpringSt7

Quote from: y_jack_lok on December 11, 2019, 04:30:47 PM
I watched the last few minutes of the first half and most of the second half of Middlebury vs Stevens on Sunday. Wondering what people think about Middlebury, currently ranked #4 with a Massey SOS of 183. Not much has been said about them here. They have a lot of height.

Also, not much has been said here about current #3 Wittenberg with a Massey SOS of 185 (noted above by WUPFH). Witt has only played five games so far, the fewest of any Top 25 team.

Not suggesting relatively high Massey SOS calls into question the rankings. Just looking for thoughts.

Speaking from a NESCAC background, we're still waiting to see how we feel about Middlebury. The consensus right now seems to be that they have played down to their opponents at times, and the non-conference teams they traditionally play, such as Keene St. and Skidmore, are down this year, so their schedule is pretty weak. They returned their top 4 scorers and brought in a somewhat highly regarded transfer, so it seems like they might be struggling to find the right shots for the right guys. But on paper they have the best offensive talent in the league and with Amherst's early struggles, should still be the favorite to win the NESCAC. If I had a vote, they would be in the 8-12 range.

y_jack_lok


Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: SpringSt7 on December 11, 2019, 04:46:24 PM
Quote from: y_jack_lok on December 11, 2019, 04:30:47 PM
I watched the last few minutes of the first half and most of the second half of Middlebury vs Stevens on Sunday. Wondering what people think about Middlebury, currently ranked #4 with a Massey SOS of 183. Not much has been said about them here. They have a lot of height.

Also, not much has been said here about current #3 Wittenberg with a Massey SOS of 185 (noted above by WUPFH). Witt has only played five games so far, the fewest of any Top 25 team.

Not suggesting relatively high Massey SOS calls into question the rankings. Just looking for thoughts.

Speaking from a NESCAC background, we're still waiting to see how we feel about Middlebury. The consensus right now seems to be that they have played down to their opponents at times, and the non-conference teams they traditionally play, such as Keene St. and Skidmore, are down this year, so their schedule is pretty weak. They returned their top 4 scorers and brought in a somewhat highly regarded transfer, so it seems like they might be struggling to find the right shots for the right guys. But on paper they have the best offensive talent in the league and with Amherst's early struggles, should still be the favorite to win the NESCAC. If I had a vote, they would be in the 8-12 range.

I'd agree.  Middlebury has all the pieces, but they've underwhelmed thus far.  I have them ranked farther down than the overall poll.  As for Wittenberg, similarly they have all the pieces, but they haven't really played a schedule that will tell us too much just yet.  I have them ranked pretty high almost by default.  Both teams, fortunately, play in conferences that will give them ample opportunity to show themselves for whatever they happen to be.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

y_jack_lok


cacfan11

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on December 11, 2019, 04:56:43 PM
Quote from: SpringSt7 on December 11, 2019, 04:46:24 PM
Quote from: y_jack_lok on December 11, 2019, 04:30:47 PM
I watched the last few minutes of the first half and most of the second half of Middlebury vs Stevens on Sunday. Wondering what people think about Middlebury, currently ranked #4 with a Massey SOS of 183. Not much has been said about them here. They have a lot of height.

Also, not much has been said here about current #3 Wittenberg with a Massey SOS of 185 (noted above by WUPFH). Witt has only played five games so far, the fewest of any Top 25 team.

Not suggesting relatively high Massey SOS calls into question the rankings. Just looking for thoughts.

Speaking from a NESCAC background, we're still waiting to see how we feel about Middlebury. The consensus right now seems to be that they have played down to their opponents at times, and the non-conference teams they traditionally play, such as Keene St. and Skidmore, are down this year, so their schedule is pretty weak. They returned their top 4 scorers and brought in a somewhat highly regarded transfer, so it seems like they might be struggling to find the right shots for the right guys. But on paper they have the best offensive talent in the league and with Amherst's early struggles, should still be the favorite to win the NESCAC. If I had a vote, they would be in the 8-12 range.

I'd agree.  Middlebury has all the pieces, but they've underwhelmed thus far.  I have them ranked farther down than the overall poll.  As for Wittenberg, similarly they have all the pieces, but they haven't really played a schedule that will tell us too much just yet.  I have them ranked pretty high almost by default.  Both teams, fortunately, play in conferences that will give them ample opportunity to show themselves for whatever they happen to be.

I would certainly vote for them as a top 5 team. They have the best and most versitile offense in the NESCAC, as well as a strong defense, their frontcourt, with solid two way players in folger and sobel is a hidden strength for a team that has such strong guard play. They have definitely played down to their opponents, but other then a couple minutes against a solid NEC they seemed to be in control of every game.  Returning everyone and improving on a solid 2018 team that blew a ten point lead to Swarthmore in the final minutes last year. Expect this junior heavy team to make deep runs the next two years.

Darryl Nester

How They Fared (So Far)

As usual, a light schedule as many schools are at the end of the fall term.

Top 25

Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#1621Swarthmore9-0def. #11 Johns Hopkins, 67-62
#2592Emory9-0IDLE
#3546Wittenberg5-012/14 at Bridgewater (Va.); 12/15 vs. Eastern Mennonite
#4528Middlebury9-0IDLE
#5493St. Thomas8-1won at #28 Augsburg, 89-81
#6467Nebraska Wesleyan9-112/14 at Wartburg
#7466Marietta6-0IDLE
#8464Randolph-Macon9-0IDLE
#9416Washington U.8-1won at Fontbonne, 86-44
#10415UW-Platteville8-012/14 at Bethel
#11349Johns Hopkins8-1LOST at #1 Swarthmore, 62-67
#12326Elmhurst6-012/14 vs. #32 North Central (Ill.)
#13324St. John's7-1won at Gustavus Adolphus, 66-52
#14248Babson9-0IDLE
#15218UW-La Crosse7-0def. Ripon, 54-53
#16176Whitworth5-1IDLE
#17160Nichols7-1won at Gordon, 76-73 OT; 12/14 at #33 Hamilton
#18138UW-Stevens Point6-1LOST to Bethel, 46-64; 12/14 at Ripon
#19110Colby9-0IDLE
#2098Guilford8-2IDLE
#2197Springfield7-1LOST at #25 Amherst, 70-76; 12/13 at Westfield State
#2296Carthage6-112/14 vs. Alma
#2394Augustana5-212/12 vs. MacMurray; 12/15 vs. T#40 Illinois Wesleyan
#2486Benedictine8-1IDLE
#2578Amherst5-2def. #21 Springfield, 76-70; 12/12 vs. Pine Manor


Others receiving votes
Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#2673Wooster5-112/15 vs. St. John Fisher
#2763UW-Oshkosh5-3IDLE
#2861Augsburg5-2LOST to #5 St. Thomas, 81-89
#2957Christopher Newport7-312/15 at #36 Virginia Wesleyan
#3049WPI8-2IDLE
#3148UW-Eau Claire8-1def. Lawrence, 72-63; 12/14 at St. Norbert
#3233North Central (Ill.)6-3won at Aurora, 83-53; 12/14 at #12 Elmhurst
#3320Hamilton8-112/14 vs. #17 Nichols
#3417Whitman5-2IDLE
#3515Rochester8-1def. Ithaca, 68-63
#3614Virginia Wesleyan7-112/15 vs. #29 Christopher Newport
#3713Loras7-112/14 vs. Adrian; 12/15 at Trine
#3810Muhlenberg8-112/14 at Haverford
#399Wheaton (Ill.)7-2won at Calvin, 76-67; 12/14 vs. North Park
T#407Yeshiva9-112/15 at Eastern Connecticut
T#407Pomona-Pitzer5-212/13 vs. Westcliff University
T#407Illinois Wesleyan6-212/15 at #23 Augustana
#435Mount Union5-212/14 vs. Wilmington
#444Centre7-2IDLE
#453Mary Hardin-Baylor6-112/12 vs. St. Thomas (Texas); 12/15 vs. Concordia (Texas)
T#462Albertus Magnus8-112/14 vs. St. Lawrence
T#462Widener9-012/14 vs. Lycoming

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh



The basketball season now finds itself square in the middle of not only the holidays, but also finals. Teams are taking breaks to focus on academics and either not playing until the new year or finding openings to fit in games here and there.

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Titan Q

St. Norbert 70
UW-Eau Claire 58

St. Norbert's two losses are to #12-Elmhurst and #24-Benedictine.