Top 25 talk

[Pat Coleman]

I think that's borne out of a feeling that the best team in the WIAC is by default a national title contender. It seemed like that team was Oshkosh. Apparently not.

[John Gleich]

I agree with that sentiment, and, while Oshkosh was the "pick" this year, at least from the SID's, I don't think that there was a WIAC team this season that PRESEASON was a national title contender.

The WIAC teams earn their mettle by passing the test of time and surviving the rather grueling in-conference schedule.  After making my last post, I was going to write another, saying that the WIAC may, in fact, be down this year (I think I wrote that to you about a month ago over IM while Hoopsville was on air).  There's only one team (La Crosse) that is undefeated this year in the non-con.  The usual suspects Oshkosh (2 non-con losses) Point (3 non-con losses) Whitewater (2 non-con losses) and Platteville (2 non-con losses) haven't completely dominated their non-conference foes like they've done as a collective group, in years past.  There may be a changing of the guard, but I've felt all season like there was a vacuum at the top with the graduation of the major contributors to Point's 2 time Nat. Champ. teams.  Which teams had the most talent and experience coming back?  Oshkosh, La Crosse, Stout, Whitewater.  Which teams are near the top?  WW, LaX, Stout.  Point is back near the top, and this just proves the talent of the guys who weren't top contributors but were just role players, or even guys who didn't play at all. 

But with Point, they're just SO young, and this has been proved this season.  They're in second in the league, but they've lost games they shouldn't have.  As the year goes on, this team will just gain experience and get better.

Who is the "team to beat" in the WIAC right now?  I'd say it's gotta be Whitewater.  They've rather quietly taken the lead in the conference race.  Tomorrow's Point/Stout game is a big game and with it, the conference will start to spread out a bit... but as we saw 4 and 5 years go in the WIAC, the conference title is won in late January and February, not at the New Year.

[cardinalpride]

I agree with that sentiment, and, while Oshkosh was the "pick" this year, at least from the SID's, I don't think that there was a WIAC team this season that PRESEASON was a national title contender.

The WIAC teams earn their mettle by passing the test of time and surviving the rather grueling in-conference schedule.  After making my last post, I was going to write another, saying that the WIAC may, in fact, be down this year (I think I wrote that to you about a month ago over IM while Hoopsville was on air).  There's only one team (La Crosse) that is undefeated this year in the non-con.  The usual suspects Oshkosh (2 non-con losses) Point (3 non-con losses) Whitewater (2 non-con losses) and Platteville (2 non-con losses) haven't completely dominated their non-conference foes like they've done as a collective group, in years past.  There may be a changing of the guard, but I've felt all season like there was a vacuum at the top with the graduation of the major contributors to Point's 2 time Nat. Champ. teams.  Which teams had the most talent and experience coming back?  Oshkosh, La Crosse, Stout, Whitewater.  Which teams are near the top?  WW, LaX, Stout.  Point is back near the top, and this just proves the talent of the guys who weren't top contributors but were just role players, or even guys who didn't play at all. 

But with Point, they're just SO young, and this has been proved this season.  They're in second in the league, but they've lost games they shouldn't have.  As the year goes on, this team will just gain experience and get better.

Who is the "team to beat" in the WIAC right now?  I'd say it's gotta be Whitewater.  They've rather quietly taken the lead in the conference race.  Tomorrow's Point/Stout game is a big game and with it, the conference will start to spread out a bit... but as we saw 4 and 5 years go in the WIAC, the conference title is won in late January and February, not at the New Year.

Although, the preseason favorite to win the WIAC may be overrated or just not playing at their best right now, whoever wins that league will be a force come tournament time.  Simply because they will be battle tested.

[hugenerd]

With NYUs win over Rochester tonight by 18 it looks like they might be legit this year.  It also sets up a great game for Sunday between the undefeated violets (11-0) and #19 CMU (11-1), fresh off their easy win over Brandeis.

[Gregory Sager]

It also begs the question of just how fast a team can go from 0 to 60 mph in terms of the Top 25 poll. NYU didn't receive even one stinking vote in last week's poll, but when the ballots go out early next week the pollsters could find the Violets sitting at 12-0 and the proud new owners of a pair of victories over Top 25 teams.

[wooscotsfan]

#3 Wooster 97  Washington & Jefferson 72

Wooster easily wins the Wash & Jeff tournament knocking off the Presidents on their home floor.  The College of New Jersey (8-2) was a tougher opponent for Wooster in the first round last night but the Scots won that game as well.

Wooster was led tonight by Evan Will with 20 points, James Cooper with 17 points and Tom Port with 12 points.

Wooster is now 12-1 and next up is a road game at Allegheny on 1/11.

[wooscotsfan]

...pair of victories over Top 25 teams.

The nonshrinking Violets aren't the only team to pull that trick over the last 4 days. 

The Wilmington Quakers in the OAC have beat both #12 Baldwin Wallace (today it was 64-61 on BW's court) and #22 Ohio Northern on 1/4, also a big road win.

At 12-1 overall and tied for first in the OAC at 5-1, Wilmington should also be in the Top 25 at this juncture and they didn't get any votes in the last poll either.

[gordonmann]

I find it hard to fault the voters for not voting for NYU given their penchant for wracking up a gaudy non-conference record before UAA play brings them down to earth.

Exhibit A:  This year NYU has beaten three teams with winning records – Ursinus (8-4), St. Joseph's (L.I.) (7-5) and Westfield State (8-5).  They sport two wins over Polytech, a win over first-year Immaculata, a win over Elmira (3-8) and an OT win over Mt. St. Vincent.  I can't justify putting them in the Top 25 with that slate.

Exhibit B:  In 2004-2005 NYU went 8-1 before UAA play began and 8-9 afterwards.  In 2003-2004 NYU went 9-0 before UAA play began and 12-9 afterwards.  In 2002-2003 NYU went 7-2 before UAA play began and 5-11 afterwards.

Yes, the win against Rochester is nice. 

But what, before that, made the NYU worthy of Top 25 votes?  If they play all CUNYAC teams and go undefeated, are they better than other teams playing better schedules?

[Mr. Ypsi]

To bring a topic discussed on the SCIAC board (and elsewhere) back to its natural home:

NCC (still undefeated and conqueror of #1 IWU) obviously should enter the top 25 (probably entering all the way up in the mid-teens).  Wilmington (winner over TWO top 25 teams this week and still only one loss) obviously should enter the top 25.  IF NYU beats CM, they would also have TWO wins over top 25 teams this week (and still be undefeated, if previously untested) and should obviously enter the top 25.  Occidental downed #4 Amherst and still has only one loss (though, again, their wins otherwise are pretty undistinguished) at least deserves serious consideration for top 25.  And several teams JUST outside the top 25 continued to win this week.

BUT, for new teams to enter, sombody has to drop out (does that put me in the running for Mr. Obvious? ) - who?

With two losses this week (one bad, one highly respectable) on top of three earlier (respectable) losses, I'd say Elmhurst is toast.  #25 Hanover lost its 4th game and is (for now, at least) history.  #21 Lincoln and #22 ONU both lost and are probably gone.  Anyone else?  (Is Rochester in danger?  Stout lost twice, but starting at #10 will probably cling to life in the low 20s.  IF NYU downs CM, is CM in trouble?)

Also, neither NYU or Wilmington had ANY votes this past week, and Oxy only had 11 - has any team ever jumped THAT far in a single week half way through the season?

Thoughts?

[smedindy]

Again, we should just put 35 names in a hat and draw 'em out. They'll shift again next week! 

[formerbant10]

With the top 2 NE teams losing, is there any shot some of the other NE teams will get any votes this week? 

Bates, Trinity, and Tufts are all at 9-2, one of them should be able to get some votes from somebody.

[Mr. Ypsi]

With the top 2 NE teams losing, is there any shot some of the other NE teams will get any votes this week? 

Bates, Trinity, and Tufts are all at 9-2, one of them should be able to get some votes from somebody.

Although the NCAA has 'regional quotas' (almost), the d3hoops.com poll does not.  There are still a lot of 0 or 1 loss teams (many with tougher schedules) hoping for their shot at the top 25.  Bates, Trinity, and Tufts can join the queue!  But I suspect they will be several slots behind NCC, Wilmington, Occidental(?!), and NYU (IF they beat CM later today), as well as several JUST shy of top 25 teams who continued to win.

One or more of your teams MAY (or may not) join the ranks of ORV; don't expect anything more than that.

[gordonmann]

Mr. Ypsi:

Good question about who will drop out.

I suspect these teams will but it's just a "top of my head" guess...

- No. 25 Hanover who lost to Bluffton.  It's another loss for a team clinging to the Top 25.

- No. 22 ONU who lost to Wilmington.  The Quakers will steal some of their votes.

- No. 21 Lincoln who lost to Leb Val.  If they lost to Messiah and beat Leb Val, they may've been okay.  But the Dutch are not a strong team so that loss will hurt.

- No. 16 Elmhurst who lost to Millikin and Augustana.  An 0-2 week puts you in danger unless you're Top 10 (see UW-Stout).  Losing to an unranked team hurts even more.  Plus I'm not sure voters will put four CCIW teams on their ballots with NCC emerging.

- No. 18 Rochester IF NYU beats CMU.  UR is now behind two UAA teams in the standings, CMU and NYU.  The Violets will be a strong candidate (finally) if they beat CMU and could steal some of UR's votes.

Amherst, WPI and Stout will fall, but not out of the poll.  Wartburg could drop, too.

So Wilmington, Oxy, NCC and maybe NYU on.  Hanover, ONU, Lincoln, Elmhurst and maybe Rochester off.

Hey, looks like there's room for one more surprise team to get in the Top 25.

Btw, Hope went from ORV with 59 to No. 14 between the Preseason and Week 1.  That's the biggest jump I can remember in recent polls.

[David Collinge]

Btw, Hope went from ORV with 59 to No. 14 between the Preseason and Week 1.  That's the biggest jump I can remember in recent polls.

I had our crack staff check this out.  Hope gained 195 points in that week one poll, but so did Wittenberg, going from #10 to #3.  Lawrence topped both, gaining 203 points to go from ORV (24 votes) to #15.  These are the biggest jumps so far this season.  During the season (as opposed to from preseason to week 1), the biggest gain belongs to UW-Stout in week 3, gaining 156 points to move from #22 to #12.  The biggest drop belongs to Gustavus Adolphus, which shed 269 points in week 3, dropping out from #11 to ORV (64 votes).

The biggest gainers and losers tend to be in either the Week 1 or Final polls.  Here's the biggest movers the past 4 seasons, including the biggest regular season mover where applicable:

'04-'05: 
gainer: Rochester +401 in Final poll (#21 to #4) (...and UR fans still complain about this ranking)
gainer (regular): UW-Oshkosh +169 in week 3 (#24 to #14)
loser: Franklin & Marshall -319 in week 7 (#11 to ORV/27 votes)

'03-'04:
gainer: Lawrence +334 in Final poll (#23 to #7)
gainer (regular): Wittenberg +167 in week 11 (#18 to #10)
loser: UW-Whitewater -227 in week 12 (#7 to #15)

'02-'03:
gainer: Gustavus Adolphus +505 in Final poll (#24 to #3)
gainer (week 1): Illinois Wesleyan +208 in week 1 (ORV/36 votes to #14)
gainer (regular): Wooster +150 in week 2  (#20 to #14)
loser: Christopher Newport -266 in week 12 (#11 to #23)

'01-'02:
gainer: Randolph-Macon +308 in week 6 (#25 to #11) (then in week 7 they gained another 229 points and moved to #1)
loser: Illinois Wesleyan -440 in week 1 (#2 to #24)
loser (regular): William Paterson -387 in week 2 (#8 to ORV/34 votes)

[gordonmann]

Dave:

That's incredible work.  Wow.  Definitely karma for you.

By the way, Carnegie Mellon leads NYU by 5 at the half in NYC.  The kids on WNYU are doing a very nice job.  The link is off the Daily Dose if you want to listen in.