Top 25 talk

[David Collinge]

Mid-season gains of 200 or more points in one polling week are rare; the feat hasn't happened since Randolph-Macon did it in the '01-'02 season (see my post #509 on previous page of this discussion).  But this week not one but two teams pulled it off:
#12 North Central gained an astounding 270 points (that's nearly 11 positions on the average ballot)
#17 Wilmington leapt up 209 points from having ZERO points cumulative this season.  That may be the largest jump from 0 in the history of the men's poll.

In the "what goes up, must come down" department, we also had two drops of more than 200 points (think of 200 points as 8 stories; usually fatal):
#18 UW-Stout dropped 224 points to fall from 10th
Elmhurst lost 201 points (99.5% of their support) to drop from 16th; they cling to one vote for #25 on one ballot.

Congratulations to Wittenberg for what I believe is their first ever #1 ranking in the D3hoops.com poll.  Whodathunkit for D3's winningest program of all time!

Quite a shake-up this week!   

[Ralph Turner]

Congratulations to Wittenberg for what I believe is their first ever #1 ranking in the D3hoops.com poll. 

That David Collinge is a truly magnanimous gentleman for a Wooster alum!    8)

[Titan Q]

A dynamic of the poll that will be big factor the rest of the way is the relative strength/weakness of various conferences.  Wittenberg, a solid choice as the new #1, plays in the NCAC where the Big 2 are just not challenged all that often...and Witt has already played their game at Wooster. 

Here is Witt's schedule the rest of  the way...

Jan 11, 2006  Earlham   
Jan 14, 2006  Hiram     
Jan 18, 2006  Ohio Wesleyan     
Jan 21, 2006  at Allegheny     
Jan 25, 2006  Wabash     
Jan 28, 2006  at Denison     
Feb 1, 2006  at Earlham     
Feb 4, 2006  Wooster     
Feb 8, 2006  at Ohio Wesleyan   
Feb 11, 2006  at Hiram     
Feb 15, 2006  at Wabash     
Feb 18, 2006  Allegheny 


Meanwhile, a team like #5 Illinois Wesleyan has 5 regular season games remaining vs teams that currently are or have been in the poll -- 2 vs Elmhurst, 2 vs #10 Augustana, and 1 at #15 North Central.

Hope and Albion have to play each other twice and Calvin twice, and there's always a 4th team in the MIAA that knocks a contender or two off.

The WIAC teams will beat the daylights out of each other...it is one of those kinds of years in Wisconsin. 

I think the voters are going to have a hard time evaluating the top of the poll as the season goes on because some of the key top five candidates - from the likes of the CCIW, MIAA, and WIAC - are without question going to lose games. 

[hugenerd]

The UAA also seems to be getting some more attention with 4 of the 8 teams in the conference getting votes this week, you can see deiscanton's post on the UAA board for a summary.

Obviously CMU has the edge at this point by opening up with 3 road wins, but it will be interesting to see how they do at WashU and Chicago (which is a road trip that had not been swept in sometime before CMU did it last year to set up the title game with Rochester).  They will also need to hold serve at home which they failed to do twice last year against very beatable oponents (Brandeis and WashU). 

Also, I am glad that CMU dropped a non-conference game to regain focus after the big win at Princeton rather than a conference game.  They could win the UAA for the first time since the league's inception after being picked to finish fourth in the preseason (which I couldn't really understand after they finished second last year and returned their two leading scorers as well as several other key reserves).

[cardinalpride]

Meanwhile, a team like #5 Illinois Wesleyan has 5 regular season games remaining vs teams that currently are or have been in the poll -- 2 vs Elmhurst, 2 vs #10 Augustana, and 1 at #15 North Central.

You mean #12 North Central!   

[smedindy]

I do think this year OWU and Wabash can definitely give the "Big Two" fits. 'Bash has rolled off 8 in a row. So I don't think Witt is all that secure.

[njlincolnlion]

Well it's was nice while it lasted having Lincoln in the top 25.  Hopefully, now that the conference schedules are in full swing, the current Top 25 will start to knock each other out, Lincoln wins it remaining games, and gets back into the top 25, with the NCAA's being our ultimate goal.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Here's the new one:

1     Wittenberg ( 8 )     12-1     594     2
2    Hope (9)    13-0    576    6
3    Wooster (2)    12-1    574    3
4    Albion (2)    11-1    536    5
5    Illinois Wesleyan (4)    11-1    518    1
6    Lawrence    9-0    491    7
7    Puget Sound    10-2    441    8
8    Amherst    9-1    435    4
9    York (Pa.)    11-1    433    11
10    Augustana    12-1    380    13
11    Hampden-Sydney    10-0    321    15
12    North Central    11-0    301    —
13    Baldwin-Wallace    11-2    256    12
14    Randolph-Macon    12-2    253    17
15    Worcester Polytech    10-1    233    9
16    Carnegie Mellon    12-1    222    19
17    Wilmington    12-1    209    —
18    UW-Stout    11-3    175    10
19    Wartburg    9-2    163    14
20    St. John Fisher    8-2    160    20
21    Bluffton    12-1    151    25
22    Mississippi College    10-1    142    23
23    UW-Whitewater    10-2    96    —
24    Occidental    9-1    84    —
25    Transylvania    11-2    57    —

Dropped out: No. 16 Elmhurst; No. 18 Rochester; No. 21 Lincoln; No. 22 Ohio Northern; No. 24 Hanover.

Others receiving votes: New York University 50, Widener 49, Rochester 48, Ohio Northern 34, Lincoln 34, Maryville (Tenn.) 32, Calvin 18, Hamilton 11, Carroll 10, Washington U. 8, UW-La Crosse 8, UW-Oshkosh 7, Virginia Wesleyan 6, New Jersey City 3, Catholic 3, Elmhurst 1, St. Thomas 1, UW-Stevens Point 1.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I have a hard time putting Witt at the top.  They do have a great rep and an amazing defense, but they haven't been all that impressive this year.  For the reasons mentioned below, I'm not willing to give either Woo or Witt the top spot, but between the two, Wooster seems to be the better team.  It's just a bit strange.  Then again, Albion seems a little better than Hope, fortunately we get to find out for sure this week.  And as much as I usually denegrate the talent level in the eastern regions, York looks legit this year.  I've been very impressed with what they have produced, the one loss excepted.  Although, have any of you ever driven to Salisbury, MD?  It's like in the middle of nowhere.  You wouldn't expect such a tiny piece of land to be so difficult to navigate, but it would tire anyone out.

[bamm]

Tough game tonight for an East-region team getting some votes in the top 25 and one of the remaining unbeatens.  Hamilton (8-0) travels to Utica College (8-2).  Utica is probably the only real challenger to St. John Fisher in the Empire 8 this season (Fisher just beat them on Friday after trailing by 10 in the 2nd half). 

Also, UR has a chance to make it's case for getting back in the Top 25 this weekend if it can win the oldest tourney in D3 basketball, the JP Morgan Chase in Rochester.  If seedings hold they should face Fisher in the finals.

[ScotsFan]

A dynamic of the poll that will be big factor the rest of the way is the relative strength/weakness of various conferences.  Wittenberg, a solid choice as the new #1, plays in the NCAC where the Big 2 are just not challenged all that often...and Witt has already played their game at Wooster.

 

Hope and Albion have to play each other twice and Calvin twice, and there's always a 4th team in the MIAA that knocks a contender or two off. 

Q,

I'll give you the WIAC and CCIW as being much tougher.  But I don't see much difference between the MIAA and the NCAC.  Hope and Albion IMO are clearly the 2 best teams in that conference.  Calvin is a solid 3rd, but beyond that, I really don't see a 4th team from the MIAA this year that could concievably give Hope or Albion trouble.  Adrian has usually been that 4th team of late, and they barely beat Oberlin back in December.  As Smeds mentioned, Wabash and OWU are no pushovers.  If I recall, Wabash gave IWU a pretty good game back in November.  Winning at Chadwick is never an easy task.  Even Earlham could cause some problems.  They already took Wooster to OT in Richmond.  The Quakers have played a very tough schedule and they have at least been respectable in those games.  Once you get below Earlham in the NCAC, I will agree that there aren't many challenges left.  But to say that beyond Witt and Wooster there aren't many challenges is a bit of a stretch.  

As I said, IMO, you could make the same argument about the MIAA this year beyond Hope, Albion and Calvin.  I seriously doubt that the likes of Alma, Adrian, Kzoo, Olivet and the rest will challenge either of the 2 big boys of the MIAA.  And I think Calvin could easily fall into the same category as Wabash and OWU and even Earlham from the NCAC.  

My point is, I don't think it's fair to discount the NCAC by saying it's basically a 2 horse race, when the same could easily be said about the MIAA.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Hamilton is interesting.  They have played a very weak schedule thus far, with Brockport, Messiah and Endicott being the cream of the crop.  I'm not saying they are undeserving of votes, but they have yet to prove they can compete with top tier teams.  However, their schedule provides them few opportunities for doing such.  They could run the table with little trouble if they get by Utica tonight.

Hamilton's schedule, however, looks impressive compared to fellow undefeated Widener.  I know they will get tested a bit more in conference, but thus far have played nobody.  Their closest game was an OT affair with Lebanon Valley who lost by 46 to York.  The current record of Widener opponents thus far is an amazing 39-101.  They haven't played a team with a winning record since Galludet before Thanksgiving.  I've never seen a cupcake schedule like this.  I'm not putting them down or anything, I just think its amazing.

[hugenerd]

There is a good game in the NEWMAC tonight between the first place (in the conference) MIT Engineers (9-2) and the #15 WPI Engineers. MIT beat Wheaton on the road last saturday after Wheaton had just crushed Clark by 25, and we all know who Clark beat.  

MIT has the ability to give WPI a run for its money, Mike D'Auria is one of the best scoring guards I have seen in the country (averaging over 22 ppg).  

It will be interesting to see... Go Engineers!

[bamm]

I agree about Hamilton -- not real impressed yet.  If they get by Utica tonight, they may only be challenged the rest of the way two or three times.  It could be an interesting final weekend of the regular season for them if they run the table, as they have to make the long trek to the North Country (through the Adirondacks) to play Clarkson and St. Lawrence.  Could be trouble.

I feel the same way about Amherst, really.  Their best player is gone (Schiel) and they've lost their only real test (Occidental).  After seeing them in the regional they hosted last season, I felt all three of the visiting teams (Rochester, Potsdam, Fisher) were better than they were.  If they hadn't beaten Williams I wouldn't even consider them Top 25 material.  

[TheFence]

I think MIT can give WPI a run.  I saw Endicott give WPI all they could handle and quite frankly if WPI is not exposed tonight they will be before long.  If WPI is the class if the NEWMAC, then the NEWMAC is done consierable this year.