Top 25 talk

[diehardfan]

Meanwhile, a team like #5 Illinois Wesleyan has 5 regular season games remaining vs teams that currently are or have been in the poll -- 2 vs Elmhurst, 2 vs #10 Augustana, and 1 at #15 North Central.

You mean #12 North Central!   

hehe.... I love it. Things like this and your signature always make me giggle. I love how much you love your team. It's very fun. 

My point is, I don't think it's fair to discount the NCAC by saying it's basically a 2 horse race, when the same could easily be said about the MIAA.

Interesting points. It may be more true this year than it has been since I started watching basketball that these conferences are closer to even. I don't know if it's still true, but the massey ratings for the lower MIAA schools was down alot. And Wabash has made strides in the last couple of years. I just don't know though. IWU is so up and down this year, it's extremely hard to gauge a team by their performace against them.

Fortunately, it really doesn't matter what I think about whether or not the conferences are equal. 

[Greek Tragedy]

If they [Amherst] hadn't beaten Williams I wouldn't even consider them Top 25 material.  

What's so special about Williams (beating them in Amherst)?

[bamm]

I think MIT can give WPI a run.  I saw Endicott give WPI all they could handle and quite frankly if WPI is not exposed tonight they will be before long.  If WPI is the class if the NEWMAC, then the NEWMAC is done consierable this year.

On a neutral court, WPI barely snuck by RIT (two point game in final minute).  At RIT, Rochester beat RIT by 42.  Make your own judgements.

What's so special about Williams (beating them in Amherst)?

Nothing, other than I suspected they could beat Amherst and are 9-3 with an equally unimpressive schedule... although they lost by only two to previously mentioned WPI.

[mactitan]

I expected North Central to finally break the top 25, but has anyone seen a team debut at #12? It proves to me that the voters are paying attention.  A lot of other polls would have been a lot slower in reacting to a team that was off the preseason radar.  Its still a strange thing about all polls though, after last week how could anyone consider IWU a better team than North Central? Yet there are the Titans, 7 spots ahead of a team that just beat them at their own place.  I understand how it happens, and I don't mean this as a criticism, but doesn't it seem to defy logic on some level?

[Greek Tragedy]

On a neutral court, WPI barely snuck by RIT (two point game in final minute).  At RIT, Rochester beat RIT by 42.  Make your own judgements.

Whitewater lost to Loras on a neutral court by 2.  Platteville smoked Loras by 24 on a neutral court.  Does that mean when whitewater plays at Platteville on Wednesday, Platteville is gonna win big?  Probably not.  That's my judgement!    Whitewater is probably favored.

[bamm]

Yeah, I agree you can't play the seven degrees of this team or that team game.  Just wanted to point out something that stuck out at me.  You could just as easily make the argument that WPI is a solid team because they know how to pull out the close games, which Rochester has struggled to do (Wittenburg, CMU).   

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Speaking of Loras, aren't they a darkhorse no one is talking about? They stepped up for big wins over Wartburg and Whitewater.  I guess they have to prove themselves in the conference first (quite the gauntlet there to run).  I didn't expect them to be quite that good... that's all I'm saying.

[Greek Tragedy]

I expected North Central to finally break the top 25, but has anyone seen a team debut at #12? It proves to me that the voters are paying attention.  A lot of other polls would have been a lot slower in reacting to a team that was off the preseason radar.  Its still a strange thing about all polls though, after last week how could anyone consider IWU a better team than North Central? Yet there are the Titans, 7 spots ahead of a team that just beat them at their own place.  I understand how it happens, and I don't mean this as a criticism, but doesn't it seem to defy logic on some level?

In all honesty, when a team jumps from nowhere to #12, I think it's the opposite.  I think the pollsters AREN'T paying attention to the team.  If they did, they probably would've moved North Central into the Top25 gradually.  I mean, my thinking is, they go from 31 votes to #12 and 301 votes after ONE game vs. Ill. Wes?  Seriously...One of two things should've happened...they should've been in the polls earlier or they shouldn't have had such a high debut, IMO.

How can anyone consider IWU a better team than North Central?  I'm not taking anything away from North Central, because in all honesty, I don't know much about them.  But two years ago Superior beat Stevens Point in Point to end the year and then Point beat them 3 days later in the WIAC tourney on the way to the National Championship.  Believe me, I'm not comparing Superior with North Central, but it is one game...a big win for NCC, but one game and plenty to go in the tough CCIW.  Ill Wes has played a much tougher schedule as well. 

[Greek Tragedy]

Speaking of Loras, aren't they a darkhorse no one is talking about? They stepped up for big wins over Wartburg and Whitewater.  I guess they have to prove themselves in the conference first (quite the gauntlet there to run).  I didn't expect them to be quite that good... that's all I'm saying.

Not sure about Loras.  Not to make light of the game, but that Whitewater game was the 1st of the year.  Since then, Whitewater has rolled through the conference.  That same Loras team also lost to Platteville by 24 and the Pioneers are anything but world beaters this year, just 2-3 in the conference and only 7-6 overall.  So it goes.  They lost to Simpson (and they lost to Platteville by 30)...sorry, no more 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon!

Anyway, I don't know much about the IIAC other than it's usually Wartburg or Buena Vista and it's definitely not Buena Vista this year!  I mean, on a national, or even regional scope, how good are teams like Coe, Simpson and Central?  Come NCAA tourney time, Wartburg and Buena Vista never seem to do very well.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Then again, Albion seems a little better than Hope, fortunately we get to find out for sure this week. 

Interesting - considering Albion's loss was to an NAIA school that has a record of 3-8 last time I checked.

[Titan Q]

ScotsFan, I do agree that the MIAA and the NCAC are just about even.  Hope/Albion vs Wooster/Wittenberg is a push and, heck, I've seen Wabash -- it wouldn't surprise me if they're better than the MIAA #3, whoever that is.

I was trying to get at the poll as it stands right now and how the schedules the rest of the way will affect things.  In other words, Witt has already played their toughest game of the season -- the game at Wooster.  While the Tigers will have some tough games the rest of the way, they will be the "favorite" in every remaining regular season game.  On the flip side, Albion and Hope have yet to square off yet.  Most likely, that will be a split with the home teams winning just as the Witt/Woo series probably will be.  In the CCIW, Illinois Wesleyan has at least two games where I feel on paper the Titans will be underdogs (I'd say that if IWU were ranked #1) - @ North Central and @ Augustana. 

So really just getting more at the fact that Wittenberg, the current #1, is in great shape to stay locked into that #1 spot the rest of the way.  I think their remaining schedule is more favorable than teams like Hope, Albion, Illinois Wesleyan, and even Wooster, which still has to play @ Wittenberg.  It will be interesting to see how the voters handle this situation.  Usually, you do not see a team lose #1 votes without losing a game, but I guess we could see that based on teams below Witt securing great wins (like Hope over Albion, let's say).  Earlier this year IWU lost a 1st place vote to Wooster after the Scots defeated Wittenberg, so it does happen.

And let's not forget about the WIAC.  We may not see a WIAC team ever make the Top 5 the rest of the way based on the dynamics of the poll, but I feel pretty strongly that whatever team emerges as that league's champ will be one of the best 5 Division III teams in the country.

[David Collinge]

If Hope beats Albion at Albion on Wednesday, they could move past Wittenberg into the #1 slot, even if Wittenberg retains all of its first-place votes.  Look at the top of the poll:

1.  Wittenberg [8]...594
2.  Hope [9]...576

Those first place votes were worth 200 points to Witt and 225 to Hope.  Subtracting, that leaves Witt with 394 votes spread over 17 ballots (23.18 per ballot), and Hope with 351 votes from 16 voters (21.94).  In other words, the average voter who doesn't think Witt is #1 thinks Witt is #3, whereas the average non-Hope voter thinks Hope is #4.  That gives Hope a little more traction to use with a big road victory.  Suppose just half of those non-Hope voters move the Dutchmen up two places on their ballots after a road win at Albion, at the expense of Albion, Wooster, IWU, or whoever may be ahead of them, and everything else remains the same.  The revised vote totals would be

1.  Wittenberg (8 or fewer)...594 or fewer
2.  Hope (9 or more)...592 or more

It's probably not possible for Hope to move up two places on 8 ballots without disturing Wittenberg's point totals, but even if it were, we'd have a virtual tie.  And I think that's the worst-case scenario for Hope following a victory at Kresge. 

Hope's week doesn't end on Wednesday, as folks with even a passing interest in D3 national hoops know.  They have a game of some importance on Saturday as well.  (Hope's schedule.)  Wittenberg, by contrast, has home games against Earlham and Hiram this week; games where wins mean nothing and losses (possible, at least against Earlham) would be devastating.

I think a 2-0 week for Hope will vault them to #1, where they might stay for at least the remainder of the month.

[gordonmann]

Dave:

Wow.  I continued to be amazed by your math prowess.

[Ralph Turner]

If Hope beats Albion at Albion on Wednesday, they could move past Wittenberg into the #1 slot, even if Wittenberg retains all of its first-place votes.  Look at the top of the poll:

1.  Wittenberg [8]...594
2.  Hope [9]...576

Those first place votes were worth 200 points to Witt and 225 to Hope.  Subtracting, that leaves Witt with 394 votes spread over 17 ballots (23.18 per ballot), and Hope with 351 votes from 16 voters (21.94).  In other words, the average voter who doesn't think Witt is #1 thinks Witt is #3, whereas the average non-Hope voter thinks Hope is #4.  That gives Hope a little more traction to use with a big road victory.  Suppose just half of those non-Hope voters move the Dutchmen up two places on their ballots after a road win at Albion, at the expense of Albion, Wooster, IWU, or whoever may be ahead of them, and everything else remains the same.  The revised vote totals would be

1.  Wittenberg (8 or fewer)...594 or fewer
2.  Hope (9 or more)...592 or more

It's probably not possible for Hope to move up two places on 8 ballots without disturing Wittenberg's point totals, but even if it were, we'd have a virtual tie.  And I think that's the worst-case scenario for Hope following a victory at Kresge. 

Hope's week doesn't end on Wednesday, as folks with even a passing interest in D3 national hoops know.  They have a game of some importance on Saturday as well.  (Hope's schedule.)  Wittenberg, by contrast, has home games against Earlham and Hiram this week; games where wins mean nothing and losses (possible, at least against Earlham) would be devastating.

I think a 2-0 week for Hope will vault them to #1, where they might stay for at least the remainder of the month.

My confidential resources reveal a "psy-ops payola" scheme by the Calvin Boosters Club to select D3 voters to "over-hype" Hope preceding the Calvin-Hope games this year.  The extent of pay-off has not been revealed, but we look for some of this to be exposed during the questioning of Judge Alito.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

If Hope beats Albion at Albion on Wednesday, they could move past Wittenberg into the #1 slot, even if Wittenberg retains all of its first-place votes.  Look at the top of the poll:

1.  Wittenberg [8]...594
2.  Hope [9]...576

Those first place votes were worth 200 points to Witt and 225 to Hope.  Subtracting, that leaves Witt with 394 votes spread over 17 ballots (23.18 per ballot), and Hope with 351 votes from 16 voters (21.94).  In other words, the average voter who doesn't think Witt is #1 thinks Witt is #3, whereas the average non-Hope voter thinks Hope is #4.  That gives Hope a little more traction to use with a big road victory.  Suppose just half of those non-Hope voters move the Dutchmen up two places on their ballots after a road win at Albion, at the expense of Albion, Wooster, IWU, or whoever may be ahead of them, and everything else remains the same.  The revised vote totals would be

1.  Wittenberg (8 or fewer)...594 or fewer
2.  Hope (9 or more)...592 or more

It's probably not possible for Hope to move up two places on 8 ballots without disturing Wittenberg's point totals, but even if it were, we'd have a virtual tie.  And I think that's the worst-case scenario for Hope following a victory at Kresge. 

Hope's week doesn't end on Wednesday, as folks with even a passing interest in D3 national hoops know.  They have a game of some importance on Saturday as well.  (Hope's schedule.)  Wittenberg, by contrast, has home games against Earlham and Hiram this week; games where wins mean nothing and losses (possible, at least against Earlham) would be devastating.

I think a 2-0 week for Hope will vault them to #1, where they might stay for at least the remainder of the month.

My confidential resources reveal a "psy-ops payola" scheme by the Calvin Boosters Club to select D3 voters to "over-hype" Hope preceding the Calvin-Hope games this year.  The extent of pay-off has not been revealed, but we look for some of this to be exposed during the questioning of Judge Alito.

Ralph - I'm not surprised - that's typical behavior for the Calvin Bosters Club.  I'm just surprised that you are in the know, but then that shouldn't surprise me either.