Top 25 talk

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

If Hope beats Albion at Albion on Wednesday, they could move past Wittenberg into the #1 slot, even if Wittenberg retains all of its first-place votes.  Look at the top of the poll:

1.  Wittenberg [8]...594
2.  Hope [9]...576

Those first place votes were worth 200 points to Witt and 225 to Hope.  Subtracting, that leaves Witt with 394 votes spread over 17 ballots (23.18 per ballot), and Hope with 351 votes from 16 voters (21.94).  In other words, the average voter who doesn't think Witt is #1 thinks Witt is #3, whereas the average non-Hope voter thinks Hope is #4.  That gives Hope a little more traction to use with a big road victory.  Suppose just half of those non-Hope voters move the Dutchmen up two places on their ballots after a road win at Albion, at the expense of Albion, Wooster, IWU, or whoever may be ahead of them, and everything else remains the same.  The revised vote totals would be

1.  Wittenberg (8 or fewer)...594 or fewer
2.  Hope (9 or more)...592 or more

It's probably not possible for Hope to move up two places on 8 ballots without disturing Wittenberg's point totals, but even if it were, we'd have a virtual tie.  And I think that's the worst-case scenario for Hope following a victory at Kresge. 

Hope's week doesn't end on Wednesday, as folks with even a passing interest in D3 national hoops know.  They have a game of some importance on Saturday as well.  (Hope's schedule.)  Wittenberg, by contrast, has home games against Earlham and Hiram this week; games where wins mean nothing and losses (possible, at least against Earlham) would be devastating.

I think a 2-0 week for Hope will vault them to #1, where they might stay for at least the remainder of the month.

My confidential resources reveal a "psy-ops payola" scheme by the Calvin Boosters Club to select D3 voters to "over-hype" Hope preceding the Calvin-Hope games this year.  The extent of pay-off has not been revealed, but we look for some of this to be exposed during the questioning of Judge Alito.

Ralph - I'm not surprised - that's typical behavior for the Calvin Bosters Club.  I'm just surprised that you are in the know, but then that shouldn't surprise me either.   

Isn't all of this assuming Hope beats Albion, which seems like a tall order to me.

[Dark Knight]

My confidential resources reveal a "psy-ops payola" scheme by the Calvin Boosters Club to select D3 voters to "over-hype" Hope preceding the Calvin-Hope games this year.  The extent of pay-off has not been revealed, but we look for some of this to be exposed during the questioning of Judge Alito.

Ralph, I'm hurt that you would suggest such a thing! Hope clearly belongs at #1 and Calvin doesn't have a chance.

Besides, they have the best condiments!


Not to mention the best new mascot. Go Flying Olieballen!

[iwumichigander]

Isn't all of this assuming Hope beats Albion, which seems like a tall order to me.

It maybe a tall order but the last 3 years historicals say Hope & Albion usually split. And for some reason,over the past 3 years, each has a 50/50 chance of losing to Adrian, not exactly a powerhouse in the conference.

[hugenerd]

Yeah, I agree you can't play the seven degrees of this team or that team game.  Just wanted to point out something that stuck out at me.  You could just as easily make the argument that WPI is a solid team because they know how to pull out the close games, which Rochester has struggled to do (Wittenburg, CMU).   

You have to admit that losing a close game to Wittenberg and CMU is not the same thing as pulling out a close wins against a 5-4 RIT team (5 pts), a 5-5 Endicott team (1 pt.), a 5-6 Babson team (5 pts), or a 4-6 Worcester State team (OT).

[hugenerd]

To add to what I said a few minutes ago, either WPI plays down to their competition (which would explain all the close games) or they are just not a very consistent team (or they are overrated which I wont go as far as to say because I have not seen them play).  That goes to show how a 5-6 Clark team can beat them (after losing to Wheaton by 25, which shows Clark is streaky as well). 

I just think there are a handful of teams right now that are getting alot of attention that are not based on substance.  For example, I personally believe that the NYU and WPI schedules are very comparable (alot of cupcakes and 2-3 tough games), yet NYU lost to a 12-1 CMU team and WPI lost to a 5-6 Clark team, yet WPI gets a whole lot more votes.

Just something to think about...

[Titan Q]

Massey has the CCIW squads 1 and 2...

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=6

1     N Central IL   1.462   
2     IL Wesleyan   1.160   
3     Wittenberg   1.081   
4     Hope   1.047   
5     Lawrence   1.026 
6     Wooster   0.967   
7     Occidental   0.954   
8     Hamilton   0.927   
9     Carnegie Mellon 
10    Hampden-Sydney   0.829   

As far as strength of schedule*, Massey has...

1. Carthage
2. Illinois Wesleyan
3. Wittenberg
4. Otterbein
5. Rochester

(* Massey has D2 Upper Iowa incorrectly listed as a D3 and actually has them with strength of schedule #1. )


Carthage still has to play Augustana twice, North Central twice, and IWU once!

[hugenerd]

As for the conference Ratings:
                 W      L
UAA          62     19
CCIW       55     31
WIAC       49     22
NESCAC   77     28
OAC         41     26

[cardinalpride]

hehe.... I love it. Things like this and your signature always make me giggle. I love how much you love your team. It's very fun. 

Thanks Diehardfan!  Since the name "Diehardfan" fan was already taken by a much better looking person than me, I went with cardinalpride.  It seemed appropriate.  I really enjoyed reading your webpage.   How did a small town girl from Virginia end up in California?

[cardinalpride]

I expected North Central to finally break the top 25, but has anyone seen a team debut at #12? It proves to me that the voters are paying attention.  A lot of other polls would have been a lot slower in reacting to a team that was off the preseason radar.  Its still a strange thing about all polls though, after last week how could anyone consider IWU a better team than North Central? Yet there are the Titans, 7 spots ahead of a team that just beat them at their own place.  I understand how it happens, and I don't mean this as a criticism, but doesn't it seem to defy logic on some level?

In all honesty, when a team jumps from nowhere to #12, I think it's the opposite.  I think the pollsters AREN'T paying attention to the team.  If they did, they probably would've moved North Central into the Top25 gradually.  I mean, my thinking is, they go from 31 votes to #12 and 301 votes after ONE game vs. Ill. Wes?  Seriously...One of two things should've happened...they should've been in the polls earlier or they shouldn't have had such a high debut, IMO.

How can anyone consider IWU a better team than North Central?  I'm not taking anything away from North Central, because in all honesty, I don't know much about them.  But two years ago Superior beat Stevens Point in Point to end the year and then Point beat them 3 days later in the WIAC tourney on the way to the National Championship.  Believe me, I'm not comparing Superior with North Central, but it is one game...a big win for NCC, but one game and plenty to go in the tough CCIW.  Ill Wes has played a much tougher schedule as well. 

One reason why NCC flew under the radar for so long was because of their horrid finish a year ago.  They started 13-1 a year ago and reached as high as 18th in the poll.  Then, they proceeded to lose 9 of their last 11 games.  So, coming into this year, the pollster were reluctant to give them any attention after a 10-0 start.  However, when you're undefeated and knock off the unanimous #1 at their place, Then follow that performance up with another road win by 30pts. against the preseason #22 in Aurora Univ., the pollsters had no other choice but to pay attention. 

By the way, the massey ratings has NCC rated #1 overall with a SOS of 12.  One slot ahead of, you guessed it, IWU!!

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=6

[Pat Coleman]

One reason why NCC flew under the radar for so long was because of their horrid finish a year ago.  They started 13-1 a year ago and reached has high as 18th in the poll.  Then, they proceeded to lose 9 of their last 11 games.  So, coming into this year, the pollster were reluctant to give them any attention after a 10-0 start. 

Yeah, you hit the nail on the head here.

[hugenerd]

WPI barely snuck by MIT at home tonight, final 60-58.

[bamm]

Top 25 vote getter Hamilton (previously 8-0) goes down at Utica (9-2) tonight 84-74.  I have been told they were missing 3 starters.

[Gregory Sager]

One reason why NCC flew under the radar for so long was because of their horrid finish a year ago.  They started 13-1 a year ago and reached has high as 18th in the poll.  Then, they proceeded to lose 9 of their last 11 games.  So, coming into this year, the pollster were reluctant to give them any attention after a 10-0 start. 

Yeah, you hit the nail on the head here.

I understand the thinking, but I don't agree with it. It smacks of what I call "historical bias", a pernicious tendency among pollsters to let long-term reputations, previous seasons, etc., creep into their judgment. I've always felt very strongly that a poll is supposed to reflect the current season, and the current season only.

[Greek Tragedy]

I agree with the idea that the poll should reflect the current season and current season only...but, does this mean that every undefeated team should be ranked #1 through whatever then?  When do you do the first poll?  What if there are 25 undefeated teams at that time?  I totally agree with you, Greg, and preseason polls can really screw things up, but what to do, what to do?

On one board, someone posted something like:  11-0 is 11-0 no matter who you play, and then I think Pat responded that it wasn't...which is true. 

[David Collinge]

A little more statistical nonsense, for your viewing pleasure.

Did you know that the Week 6 men's poll was the 100th mens poll in the history of D3hoops.com?  The poll was inaugurated with the preseason poll for the 1999-00 season.  Congratulations to Pat and crew for this milestone! 

Amherst has the longest current streak of appearances in the top 25, now at 55, starting with the 2001-02 final poll.  Wooster follows closely with 53, and then there is a gap to Wittenberg and Puget Sound, tied at 30 consecutive weeks.  IWU is in fifth at 25 weeks.

Wooster is the only men's team to receive votes in all 100 polls (in the top 25 in 92 of them).  UW-Whitewater has the second-longest votes-received streak, at 69 polls, followed by Amherst (56), Lawrence (36), and Puget Sound (32).