Top 25 talk

[hugenerd]

I know everyone has been talking about the top of the rankings, but what do people think about WPI? The have had a relatively weak schedule and struggled with 4 ~0.500 teams (OT win, 1 pt win, 5 pt win, and loss to clark).  Only 5 teams they have played are over 0.500 and only 3 are more than 2 games over .500 (Lasell 8-4, Williams 10-3, and MIT 9-3). 

Also, the top of the NEWMAC seems to be very even with Wheaton, WPI, MIT, and Clark all at 2-1, it will be interesting to see if WPI can seperate themselves or if one of the other teams will take advantage of the oppurtunity.  Another interesting note is that of those 4 teams at 2-1, only MIT has not lost at home yet.  Home court could play a role with most games being so close this far.

[cardinalpride]

It is not that I don't think Albion is a #1 candidate, but I'm still not seeing anything that makes them any better than the other candidates.

I look at it a bit different than you, Q.  From my perspective, rankings should not be about who the best team is because that will ultimately be determined in the tournament.  I believe rankings should be determined by taking the top teams and ranking them according to whose playing the best right now.  I think that can be determined by who a team has played, where they've played them, and when they've played them.  For example, Hope had the majority of 1st place votes.  Apparently, more of the pollsters believed they were the #1 team overall moreso than anyone else based on who they've played and how they were playing up to this point.  Albion, a consensus top 5 team, defeats Hope in a conference rivalry game, convincingly.  Albion is still undefeated against D3 opponents.  None of the other top 5 teams can say that, and they beat the #2 team in the country who received the majority of the 1st place votes.  Based on all the info. being read and written, I would have to believe Albion is the top ranked team right now.  They're a top 5 team, they're playing better than any of the other top 5s, and they have a big win to prove it!  I love NCC, and I'll support any worthy CCIW team.  However, barring any setback before the next poll comes out, Albion should be rated #1!

[cardinalpride]

In my view Albion's had the better go of things, but honestly, IWU makes the most sense.  They lost that game to NCC, but I've seen many a heavy favorite overlook the first conference game.  Their schedule has been solid all the way through (with the exception of IC).  Wabash, Hanover, WashU, and UPS all have nine wins or more and even Chicago has been better than expected.

Do you believe IWU overlooked NCC an undefeated team? And if so, Carthage and Millikin as well?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I don't agree with you that the rankings should be the best now; I think its a current prediction of who the best teams in the country are.  In other words, a tough loss to a good team on the road means virtually nothing unless there is evidence that the team isn't as good as you thought (ie no defense, poor FT shooting, lots of turnovers, etc).


I don't think IWU overlooked them persay, but I don't think they were prepared for the level of play they got when the conference schedule started.  I know these guys are vets now, but with all the hype and the early season success, I can see where the loss and the close game following it came from.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I forgot to weigh in on the WPI question.  I've thought they were ranked too high all season (the same with Amherst).  The voters, over the last few years, have gone from disresecting the NE region to a seeming fear of underestimating it.  Amherst should be solidly in the 8-13 range.  I thought WPI was a 15-20 team to start the year and probably not in the top 25 after a few games.  Once they lost, it was sold for me.  With the way they've been playing, I would bet money that they aren't even going to win their conference (the tournament at least).  They will be lucky to finish with a good enough record to get a pool C spot.

[cardinalpride]

I don't agree with you that the rankings should be the best now; I think its a current prediction of who the best teams in the country are.  In other words, a tough loss to a good team on the road means virtually nothing unless there is evidence that the team isn't as good as you thought (ie no defense, poor FT shooting, lots of turnovers, etc).


I don't think IWU overlooked them persay, but I don't think they were prepared for the level of play they got when the conference schedule started.  I know these guys are vets now, but with all the hype and the early season success, I can see where the loss and the close game following it came from.

You sound like an IWU apologist!

[sac]

cardinalfan--Albion won at HOME not at Hope.

[cardinalpride]

I don't agree with you that the rankings should be the best now; I think its a current prediction of who the best teams in the country are.  In other words, a tough loss to a good team on the road means virtually nothing unless there is evidence that the team isn't as good as you thought (ie no defense, poor FT shooting, lots of turnovers, etc).

I guess we'll agree to disagree.

[Titan Q]

On the topic of Carthage...

This week on Hoopsville, Pat Cummings, a D3hoops.com Top 25 voter and someone who knows Division III as well as anyone, said, "Illinois Wesleyan is not in the top 3 because they barely beat Carthage...not because they lost to North Central."  Pat is probably absolutey correct in his explanation of Week 6 poll dynamics.  A few thoughts though...

Carthage went 4-7 in the non-conference - they left the IWU game 4-8. Let's say the Red Men had replaced the following 7 games on their schedule...

vs Concordia (CA) - outstanding NAIA D1 program
vs Westmont - solid NAIA D1 program
vs Calvin (neutral)
@ Hope
vs Carroll
vs Lawrence
vs Gustavus Adolphus

(all losses)

...with the following 7 teams from Augustana's non-conference schedule...

Clarke
Rockford
Coe
Concordia
Lake Forest
Rose-Hulman
Marian

Is it safe to say Carthage - the team that took IWU to the buzzer Saturday and had a lead at Elmhurst with 3:15 to go last night - would have gone at least 5-2 there?  If so, the Red Men enter the IWU game 9-2.  Same guys, same team, same everything.  So IWU defeats the 9-2 Carthage Red Men by 1 point in a hard-fought CCIW game, and instead of it being viewed as a head-scratching bad performance by Illinois Wesleyan, it is viewed as a very good road win.  

See how that gets a little fuzzy?

[Titan Q]

Another comment Pat made on that same Hoopsville show was that Carthage should now be used as " barometer" for comparing teams since they've played so many good teams.  He pointed out that Hope won by 14 over Carthage.  I don't recall if Pat was directly making a Hope/IWU comparison using Carthage, but in general I think comparative scores can be a tricky road to go down when you're comparing games in different locations (home, away, neutral). 

For example, Illinois Wesleyan only won by 1 over Carthage...at Carthage.  Does that necessarily say anything about Hope in relation to IWU?  The game vs Hope (in which Carthage led by 4 at halftime, by the way) was at Hope -- a team with one of the best homecourt advantages in the country.  The game vs IWU was at Carthage.  Put it this way -- anyone think Albion is 18 points better than Hope today, or are you, like me, going to wait until the game @ Hope is played to draw conclusions?

Again, Pat Cummings is probably 100% correct in his explanation of how voters view results based on an opponent's record (like Carthage's bad record) and how comparative scores are used by the voters.  I just like to keep all of us thinking of a couple things:

1) A good record does not mean a team is good and a bad record doesn't mean a team is bad.

2) That comparative scores game is tricky even though we all get tempted to play it.

 

[Coach C]

Q -

You're right on both of those things.  But honestly, you sometimes have to look at comparative scores, especailly when teams play a lot of non-D3 competition. 

I thought Hope was better than Albion.  I also thought IWU was better than NCC.  Based on the games, though i can't say that now.

We will know a bit more as a few more league games are played.

C

[Briton Backer]

Sort of hate to drag on the discussion, but I'm not sure that the home vs. away logic applies to the Albion-Hope game.  First, as per an extended discussion on the MIAA board, the home team had lost something like the last 7 games between these two.  Also, Albion is not back in session yet and Hope travels better than perhaps any team I have witnessed in 20+ years of following D3 hoops.  As the radio announcers for both Hope and Albion mentioned last night, it hardly seeemed like an away game for the Dutchmen.  I don't put as much stock in the home-away thing.  But, I thought it was worth mentioning since many on this board seem to.

On another topic, if the point of the poll is to predict which team is most likely to be left standing at the end, then they may as well start giving extra points to any team outside of the Great Lakes region, and probably the Midwest as well.

Whether Albion is number 1, 2, or 4 (I find it hard to believe that even Hoops Fan or Titan Q will argue that the Brits should fall below 4) doesn't matter much at this point in the seaon only a few games into the conference season.

[Gregory Sager]

You sound like an IWU apologist!

I don't buy Hoops Fan's explanation for Illinois Wesleyan's loss to North Central, but let's be fair to Titans fans on this one. Not even the most diehard drinker of the green Kool-Ade made any excuses for Wesleyan after that loss. To their credit, the postgame talk on CCIW Chat from Wesleyan fans centered around how well North Central had played, and on what a quality team the Cardinals have this season.

Is it safe to say Carthage - the team that took IWU to the buzzer Saturday and had a lead at Elmhurst with 3:15 to go last night - would have gone at least 5-2 there?  If so, the Red Men enter the IWU game 9-2.  Same guys, same team, same everything.

Bob, while I buy your basic premise about the one-point win over Carthage not being as much of a black eye for your alma mater as it appears to be at first glance, at the same time I'm not so sure that we're talking about the "same everything" if Carthage had played Augie's non-conf sked instead of running that gauntlet that Bosko Djurickovic set up for them this November and December. I'd argue that the schedule that left the Red Men 4-7 going into CCIW play made them a tougher and more prepared team than they would've been if they had gone 9-2 or 8-3 playing Augie's schedule. I'm surprised that you're the one making this argument, because you're usually the first to point out that a rugged pre-conference schedule tends to better prepare a team for league play.

As for the comparative scores thing, one thing that should be pointed out if we're using Carthage as a barometer (something that people are already doing with Elmhurst) is the fact that 10-0 and sixth-ranked Lawrence handed the Red Men a 14-point defeat in mid-December ... on Carthage's home floor.

[Gregory Sager]

Sort of hate to drag on the discussion, but I'm not sure that the home vs. away logic applies to the Albion-Hope game.  First, as per an extended discussion on the MIAA board, the home team had lost something like the last 7 games between these two.  Also, Albion is not back in session yet and Hope travels better than perhaps any team I have witnessed in 20+ years of following D3 hoops.  As the radio announcers for both Hope and Albion mentioned last night, it hardly seeemed like an away game for the Dutchmen.

Your first point isn't really relevant, since the quirky road-team-wins tendency of the past few seasons' worth of the Hope/Albion series is not a predictor of this season's games. Those last seven games had no bearing upon last night's game, nor will they have any bearing upon the rematch in Holland.

Your second point, however, is an excellent one. If the homecourt advantage is largely neutralized, if not reversed, by the composition of the crowd, then that needs to be taken into consideration as far as the home/road analysis is concerned.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Albion certainly did muddy the waters!  If Hope had won, I think there is little doubt they would have been (decisively) #1, and Albion might well have dropped out of the 'big five' (I suspect that at least Lawrence would have passed them, perhaps one or two others).

But, of course, 'counter-factuals' can be amusing, sometimes even enlightening, but they are still counter-factual!  Hope did not win - what a mess!  I would say a STRONG case can be made for three teams (Albion, Witt, IWU) being #1, and a decent case could probably be made for Woo.

My question: do people think that Hope will hang on to (at least) #5, or was the margin of loss such that they will get lapped by Lawrence?  (All this assumes, of course, that all relevant teams win this weekend.)