Top 25 talk

[Mr. Ypsi]

One more question about voters' reactions:

#14 Randolph-Macon soundly defeated #11 Hampden-Sydney (away), then today lost at home to (#37) Virginia Wesleyan.  I realize such a question cannot be answered in a vacuum (depends on how other teams near them in the rankings did), but would you guess that they would tend to go up, down, or unchanged?

[hugenerd]

I forgot to weigh in on the WPI question.  I've thought they were ranked too high all season (the same with Amherst).  The voters, over the last few years, have gone from disresecting the NE region to a seeming fear of underestimating it.  Amherst should be solidly in the 8-13 range.  I thought WPI was a 15-20 team to start the year and probably not in the top 25 after a few games.  Once they lost, it was sold for me.  With the way they've been playing, I would bet money that they aren't even going to win their conference (the tournament at least).  They will be lucky to finish with a good enough record to get a pool C spot.

Hoops Fan,

Looks like you were right.  Amherst lost again and this time at home, while WPI still continues to play close games against average teams.  It will be interesting to see where they are ranked in next weeks poll.

[augie_superfan]

Big CCIW night:

#10 Augustana wins at Carthage;  73-70

#5 Illinois Wesleyan loses at Elmhurst;  72-64

#12 North Central loses at Millikin;  59-58

First loss of the year for North Central, now 12-1

[bamm]

East Region Update:

#20 St John Fisher defeats UR tonight in the Chase Championship @ UR. 

With a North Country sweep this weekend, SUNY Cortland is now 12-1.  There only loss on the season came by one to the Trinity squad that beat Amherst tonight (in their season opener).  The twelve straight wins should probably earn them some Top 25 consideration, despite a weak SUNYAC. 

[albionbritfan]

Well I guess with today's turn of events, the #1 votes have to consolidate to Witt, Woo & Albion.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Well I guess with today's turn of events, the #1 votes have to consolidate to Witt, Woo & Albion.

I'd guess they will suck up most if not all of the top three votes (Lawrence might grab 1 or 2).  I'll predict Lawrence 4th and Hope 5th.  After that it gets really dicey.  I'm not sure IWU deserves 6th with 2 losses in two weeks, but what is the alternative?  Maybe York, but their schedule can't begin to compare to IWU's.  Puget Sound (if they win tonight) might be a possibility, except IWU beat them decisively head-to-head.  Augustana is a possibility, but their pre-season schedule was rather suspect, and they are surviving games rather than winning them.  Amherst lost again.  Cinderella North Central went down.  Other Cinderella, Wilmington, went down.  Hampden-Sydney went down twice and will be praying to stay in the poll at all, not worried about 6th.  So, by default, #6 may be IWU afterall!

[hugenerd]

Who do you think has a chance of getting in the top 10? Do you think anyone from the high teens could jump as far as 10?  With IWU (#6), Amherst (#8), Hampden-Sydney (#11), North Central (#12), Randolph-Macon (#14), Wilmington (#17), and UW-Stout (#18) all losing at least one game this week so far.  Also, WPI and Augustana have played really close games against weaker opponents (which I do not think is a big deal because I am not a voter but some may consider this).  It seems like, in addition to the top of the rankings, the middle is also wide open and about to undergo some serious shuffling.

[David Collinge]

Who do you think has a chance of getting in the top 10? Do you think anyone from the high teens could jump as far as 10?  With IWU (#6), Amherst (#8), Hampden-Sydney (#11), North Central (#12), Randolph-Macon (#14), Wilmington (#17), and UW-Stout (#18) all losing at least one game this week so far.  Also, WPI and Augustana have played really close games against weaker opponents (which I do not think is a big deal because I am not a voter but some may consider this).  It seems like, in addition to the top of the rankings, the middle is also wide open and about to undergo some serious shuffling.

I think the top 10 will come in 3 distinct groups:
Group A: Wittenberg, Wooster, Albion, Lawrence (in that order)
Group B: Augustana, Hope, IWU, Puget Sound, York (Pa) (but in what order?)
Group C: Baldwin-Wallace

That means it's the same top 10 as this week, except that B-WC is in and Amherst is out.  This presumes a win tonight for UPS.

UPDATE: UPS did win tonight, 112-103 over Whitman.

[hugenerd]

BW's loss to Wilmington is looking a bit worse now that following the win at BW, Wilmington lost to Muskingham at home and then to 5-10 Mount Union, but I think you are right and they will most likely end up in the 10 spot.  It will be interesting to see how the rest of the top 25 pan out.

I live in the New England area now and I think it has been interesting how things have turned out because no team or group of teams have put themselves head and shoulders above the pack. There are some teams with better records than others, but nearly every game in the NEWMAC, NESCAC, etc. seems to be a toss up (although I guess this could be said about alot of league games across the country recently).

And a final word on my alma mater: CMU won easily today at Christopher Newport (and again the score was closer than the game was overall because CMU has about 1400 freshman on the team that don't want to play defense or take a single charge. I had to painfully sit through this spectacle at Brandeis and from what I hear this has happened half a dozen times this year, but I digress...).  It will be interesting to see if they can keep taking care of business in the UAA, they just finished up a 7 game road trip that lasted over a month and took them all over the east coast.  They play their first two home games of the conference schedule against Case Western and Emory this coming weekend. This weekend should have been a confidence boost for their 3 leading scorers, Maurer, Wilcox and Johnson (23, 20, 20 pts against a CNU team that took Lincoln to OT).

[cardinalpride]

Unless you PREFER a strict computer analysis (e.g., Massey), don't denigrate the human element in polls.  I PREFER (good) polls BECAUSE they include judgment, and that judgment is (early on) for the most part what I mean by 'history'!

Mr. Ypsi I believe there is a confusion between "historical Bias" and "historical fact".  The human element in polls does not have to be biased.  History may play a part in judgement, but that history has to be based on facts not biases.  For example, the preseason CCIW poll has wheaton finishing ahead of millikin.  Why?  Millikin returned more players(6) that gave them good production than wheaton(2) from a year ago.  That's a historical fact that's pertinent.  However, the coaches selected wheaton ahead of millikin due to wheaton's success in the league in recent years.  Although that's true, it's not pertinent to a current poll because wheaton's success had very little to do with their returning players.  That's the "historical bias" I'm referring to.   

[albionbritfan]

I think the top 10 will come in 3 distinct groups:
Group A: Wittenberg, Wooster, Albion, Lawrence (in that order)
Group B: Augustana, Hope, IWU, Puget Sound, York (Pa) (but in what order?)
Group C: Baldwin-Wallace

DC-
I agree with your groupings except I will take in:
A: Witt, Albion, Woo, Lawrence-I think Albion's beatdown of Hope and Hope's subsequent drubbing of Calvin will get Albion over the 30-some vote gap between Albion and Woo from last week's poll.  I think Albion will get more #1 votes this week than last but I'm not confident it will be enough to overtake the #1 outright.  It would be cool, don't get me wrong, but I'm not greedy and it's fairly meaningless at this stage of the game.  [Although I fear Albion would have to win out the MIAA to get to #1 prior to the conference tourney championships, with the good possibility that Woo and Witt blow through their schedule and have one more showdown for the #1 poll spot.]
B: I'll take the order of Puget Sound, York, Hope, Augustana, IWU

The other question is: if the CCIW is looking as deep as it is right now--IWU, NCC, Aug, Elm & Mil (!?!)--and we have an expanded tourney bracket this year, do THREE CCIW teams get to dance?  Either way, I think the adjective to describe the CCIW teams that get in will be "battle-tested."

[Titan Q]

Another near miss for now 4-10 Carthage.  Last night the Red Men led by 1 with 1:16 to play vs a very good Augustana team but lost by 3.  On Wednesday they led by 4 at Elmhurst with 3:00 to play and found a way to lose.  And of course a few days before that they lost by 1 at home to Illinois Wesleyan.  Carthage is going to knock off one of the leagues top 4 before the season is over...I'm pretty confident of that.

I feel like the CCIW has four extremely legit Top 25-caliber teams -- Illinois Wesleyan, North Central, Augustana, and Elmhurst.  I hope the voters step back and look at who Elmhurst lost to (@ Hope, @ UW-Platteville, @ Albion, @ Augustana, vs Millikin) and how competitive every one of those games was.  Albion is going to get quite a few 1st place votes -- Elmhurst trailed 65-64 with 2:24 to play at Albion.  The Millikin loss at home was a head-scratcher at the time, but the Big Blue took IWU to OT Wednesday and then defeated North Central last night.

The CCIW is as strong as I can recall it.  Not only is there parity (I'm not really sure which team among those four is the best), but I believe the top four teams are all good enough to make deep playoff runs.  (They won't all make the tournament though obviously.)  Heck, the teams that will probably finish 5th and 6th - Carthage and Millikin - are dangerous teams.  North Park even got in the action by winning at Millikin (just after Millikin won at Elmhurst) and Wheaton, probably the 7th place team this year, was up 7 at Augustana with 3:00 to play Wednesday. 

From a Top 25 poll standpoint, the CCIW teams are going to beat each other up so bad they'll probably never be ranked quite right.  Kind of like what happens in the WIAC most years. 

[Titan Q]

The CCIW's schedule for the upcoming week...

Wednesday:

Millikin @ Augustana
North Central @ Carthage
Elmhurst @ North Park
Wheaton @ Illinois Wesleyan

Saturday:

North Central @ Augustana
Illinois Wesleyan @ North Park
Wheaton @ Elmhurst
Carthage @ Millikin

[Titan Q]

"B: I'll take the order of Puget Sound, York, Hope, Augustana, IWU"


One would hope Illiniois Wesleyan would not fall below Puget Sound in the poll.  IWU defeated Puget Sound on a neutral court in a game IWU led by 21 at halftime and 21 with 11:05 to play.  The Loggers made a run to get within 6 with 4:22 to play, but IWU won the game by 17 which is about the average margin IWU led by in the contest.

Anyone at that game in Santa Barbara, CA knows that IWU is just simply better than Puget Sound (a good team).

http://www.iwu.edu/~iwunews/sports/mbb2006/miwu9.htm

[formerbant10]

It's tough to disagree with Titan Q saying that IWU is a better team, but are they playing better right now??  I think that is what will be reflected in the polls, as opposed to their head to head matchup at the beginning of the season.

And I agree with you stating that the CCIW teams will beat each other up so they won't be ranked right all year.  All I know is that it must be a helluva lot of fun to be able to watch such high-caliber games during the regular season out there.  That being said, I think Puget Sound will be in front of IWU in the poll.  But again, that means nothing in regards to how far each team will end up going in the tourney if they both make it.